Weekly Market Reflection 20 th August to 24 th August 2018 Market Outlook USDINR On Thurday, against the US dollar, the Indian Rupee plunged to a record low of 70.4925 with market participants sentiments weakened after the US dollar continued to strengthen against Asian peers as well as a widening trade deficit on the domestic front. On contrary, the US dollar was little changed as concerns over China s economic health and Turkish s lira crisis drove investors to the greenback and other safe-haven assets. Fundamental News For second consecutive day, the Euro rose as hopes that next week's talks between the United States and China will ease trade tensions between the two pushed the dollar lower. The Chinese yuan posted its biggest daily gain since January 2017 in offshore trade following news on Thursday that China and the U.S. will resume trade talks later in August. Currency Future Currency Date Date 10-08-18 16-08-18 % Chg USDINR 68.9800 70.3100 +1.93% EURINR 79.1500 80.0150 +1.09% GBPINR 88.1675 89.3700 +1.36% JPYINR 62.2000 63.4375 +1.99% Global Updates European Monetary Union Trade Balance s.a. came in at 16.7B, below expectations 17B in June. United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) registered at 0.7% above expectations 0.2% in July. European Monetary Union Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) came in at 0.4%, above expectations 0.3% in 2Q. United Kingdom Total Trade Balance came in at -1.861B, above forecasts -2.5B in June. Japan Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) below expectations -0.2% in July: Actual -0.5%. United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index below expectations 98 in August: Actual 95.3. Reference Rate Currency Date Date 10-08-18 16-08-18 % Chg USDINR 68.9538 70.2287 +1.85% EURINR 78.9985 79.9718 +1.23% GBPINR 88.1901 89.3670 +1.33% JPYINR 62.1500 63.3500 +1.93% Currencies vs $ Currency 03-08-18 17-08-18 % Chg Rupee 68.885 69.795 +1.32% Dollar Index 96.00 96.13 +0.14% Euro 1.1467 1.1439-0.24% Pound 1.2768 1.2751-0.13% Japanese Yen 110.93 110.51-0.38% Swiss Franc 0.9944 0.9959 +0.15% Canadian$ 1.3091 1.3062-0.22% Global Commodities Commodity 03-08-18 17-08-18 % Chg Gold 1217.20 1191.80-2.09% Silver 15.365 14.775-3.84% Crude 66.94 65.91-1.54% Copper 2.750 2.660-3.27% Weekly pick OUR PREVIOUS CALLS UPDATE Date Currency Entry Exit P/L 30/07 JPYINR(S) 61.90 62.60-28000
Overview USDINR USDINR showed bullish movements throughout the week and closed above its psychological level of 70.0000, if able to sustain above this mark then it may continue positive rally towards next resistance zone of 70.8000. On lower levels it has strong support of 69.3000. EURINR EURINR after found support on lower levels showed positive movements closed around 80.0000 level, if break its immediate resistance of 80.3000 in upcoming week then continue bullish rally and find next resistance near 81.0000. On downward side it may find support around 79.6000 level.
Pivot Table Currencies S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 USDINR 70.0000 69.7000 69.3000 70.5000 70.8000 71.1000 EURINR 79.5000 79.2000 78.8000 80.4000 80.7000 81.0000 GBPINR 89.0000 88.6000 88.2000 89.7000 90.0000 90.4000 JPYINR 63.0000 62.7000 62.4000 63.7000 64.0000 64.3000 Event Calendar 20 th August to 24 th August 2018 Date Time Currency Event Forecast Previous 20-Aug 5:45pm CAD Gov Council Member Wilkins Speaks - - 21-Aug 2:00pm GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing - 4.5B 22-Aug 6:00pm CAD Core Retail Sales m/m - 1.40% 22-Aug 8:00pm USD Crude Oil Inventories - 6.8M 22-Aug 11:30pm USD FOMC Meeting Minutes - - 23-Aug 12:30pm EUR French Flash Manufacturing PMI - 53.3 23-Aug 12:30pm EUR French Flash Services PMI - 54.9 23-Aug 1:00pm EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI - 56.9 23-Aug 1:00pm EUR German Flash Services PMI - 54.1 23-Aug 1:30pm EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI - 55.1 23-Aug 1:30pm EUR Flash Services PMI - 54.2 23-Aug 5:00pm EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts - - 23-Aug Day 1 All Jackson Hole Symposium - - 24-Aug 6:00pm USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m - 0.20% 24-Aug 6:00pm USD Durable Goods Orders m/m - 0.80% 24-Aug Day 2 All Jackson Hole Symposium - -
Weekly Pick (Premium Section) GBPINR found strong support on lower levels form consolidation around trendline acting as resistance on dialy chart expected to give positive breakout. BUY ABOVE 89.9150 TARGET 90.4150 SL 89.2150.
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