2017 MARKET INTELLIGENCE IPC MARKET INTELLIGENCE PRODUCTS Access key information on leading postal and parcel operators from around the globe 6 pages www.ipc.be
IPC MARKET INTELLIGENCE PRODUCTS The postal industry continues to transform itself in an era characterised by rapid globalisation, technological change and disruptive innovation. In a fast-paced world, posts need to respond to emerging opportunities and challenges quicker than ever. IPC Market Intelligence helps stakeholders stay up to date with the latest trends and provides a detailed view on both industry and operator performance. Leveraging IPC s experience in the postal industry, our team produces high-quality market intelligence to meet the needs of industry executives as well as consultants and analysts engaged in research throughout the postal sector. Our comprehensive reports ensure quick access to industry insights, helping your company to make better decisions and save valuable resources. Two of IPC s intelligence products, the IPC Global Postal Industry Report and IPC Carrier Intelligence Reports, are available for purchase and are outlined in this brochure. In a fast-paced world, posts need to respond to emerging opportunities and challenges quicker than ever.
EXTENSIVE GLOBAL COVERAGE IPC s Market Intelligence products cover operators from across the globe, including: An Post; Australia Post; bpost; Canada Post; China Post; Chunghwa Post; Correios Brasil; Correos; Correos de Mexico; CTT-Correios de Portugal; Cyprus Post; Czech Post; Deutsche Post DHL; FedEx; Hellenic Post-ELTA; Hongkong Post; Iceland Post; India Post; Japan Post; Korea Post; Latvian Post; Le Groupe La Poste; Lithuania Post; Magyar Posta; New Zealand Post; Omniva; Österreichische Post; PHL Post; Poczta Polska; Pos Indonesia; Pos Malaysia; POST Luxembourg; Poste Italiane; Posten Norge; Posti Group; PostNL; PostNord; PTT-Turkish Post; Royal Mail; Russian Post; Singapore Post; Slovenska Posta; South African Post Office; Swiss Post; Thailand Post; United States Postal Service; UPS. SUBSCRIPTION AND FURTHER INFORMATION The IPC Global Postal Industry Report and the IPC Carrier Intelligence Reports can be bought separately or together. The IPC Global Postal Industry Report and the IPC Carrier Intelligence Reports can be bought separately or together. If bought together, a 2 discount may be applied to the final purchase price of both products, depending on the licence type selected. What you get when buying our products: The PDF version of the latest edition of the IPC Global Postal Industry Report, and/or One-year access to all 50 IPC Carrier Intelligence Reports via the IPC website. To register your company for access to IPC s Market Intelligence products, or if you require further information, please contact us at market.intelligence@ipc.be 3 INTERNATIONAL POST CORPORATION
62 TH MX FDX IT CN IN PH BR RU TR DE LT ID FR IS MY EE SG INTERNATIONAL POST CORPORATION Growth Stable Decline Other Retail Mail UPS AT LV TW GR ZA ES NL JP FI NZ SE/DK Revenue growth in the postal industry remained steady in 2015, with strong performances for parcel and logistics operations driving overall growth. Posts operating in fast-emerging markets continued to outperform the industry as a whole, with all BRICS+M operators except South African Post Office seeing total revenues grow over 5%. In 2015, 26 out of 45 posts saw total revenue growth of over 1%. Of these, 12 reported stable or growing revenue across all reported segments. Beyond parcels, for which only two posts (Cyprus Post and South African Post Office) reported falling revenue, revenue was mixed across other business divisions. Just under two thirds of posts reported revenue growth for mail services. While low interest rates hampered growth for many posts financial service divisions, ten out of 22 operators did report growth in this segment in 2015. Those seeing fastest growth in 2015 were small, diversified posts in Northern Europe and Asia Pacific. Omniva and Singapore Post saw stable revenue performance for mail divisions through e-commerce-related services, and growth for all other revenue segments. Two posts saw total revenue decline in 2015, despite reporting growth for both mail and parcels divisions. For Correos, overall revenue decline was the result of lower government contributions, while Magyar Posta s performance was impacted by low interest rates reducing financial service revenue. PostNL saw stable revenue performance despite declining mail revenue, with falls in that sector largely offset by parcels growth. Notes: Analysis based on corporate revenue and business area revenue. Business area breakdown does not always match business unit breakdown. Stable revenue defined as a percentage point change of between +1 and -1. Blank segments in chart indicate no volume or data unavailable. Sources: Operator annual reports, member questionnaires, IPC analysis. UK HU BE CH CY SK PL 36% 32% 28% 24% 16% 12% 8% 4% -4% -8% -12% -16% -2-22% Corporate revenue, 2014-15 -2 ZA US MX ES BR Negative EBIT margin LT EE MY RU IT DE IS NO AU FR ID TNT CZ HK CA LV IE AT JP SE/DK UK TW SK HU PL GR FI Positive EBIT margin -18% -8% -6% -4% -2% 2% 4% 6% 8% 1 12% 14% 16% 18% 2 22% EBIT margin increase EBIT margin stable EBIT margin decrease In spite of challenges resulting from falling mail volumes, increasing labour costs and expanding networks, the majority of posts were able to maintain stable and positive EBIT margins in 2015. Posts have sought to stabilise profitability in various ways: by diversifying into new business areas or regions, or by rationalising operations to improve performance. During 2015, bpost discontinued low-margin wholesale activities in the UK and US, resulting in a slight drop in revenue for the year. However, the loss of these unprofitable services allowed the operator to maintain its high EBIT margin. Posti Group divested Scandinavian freight operations in 2015, which contributed to its overall drop in revenue but, through associated cost savings, as well as property sales and a performance improvement programme, the operator was able to improve its EBIT margin for the year by 3.0 percentage points (p.p.). More than half of posts reported revenue growth and a positive EBIT margin for 2015. Of the 38 posts with a positive EBIT margin for the year, 25 saw stable or positive development from 2014. Iceland Post saw its EBIT margin drop below zero in 2015, with the operator reporting that despite consumer letter rate increases (Fig. 2.10), revenue from monopoly universal services only just covered service costs for the year. Notes: Stable EBIT margin defined as a percentage point change of between +1 and -1. Sources: Operator annual reports, member questionnaires, IPC analysis. FDX LU CN CH NL NZ KR PH UPS GLOBAL POSTAL INDUSTRY REPORT 2016 CORPORATE TH PT CY TR BE SG EBIT margin 2015 63 IPC GLOBAL POSTAL INDUSTRY REPORT The IPC Global Postal Industry Report (GPIR) provides a comprehensive and in-depth review of industry trends and operator performance, offering postal organisations and other stakeholders a solid foundation to benchmark performance and make informed business decisions. Published each year and covering 45 postal operators worldwide, the report is made up of two parts. Part One provides a view on industry-level trends, highlighting some of the key megatrends shaping the industry, how posts are responding, and how the industry has performed overall. Part Two focuses on detailed operator comparisons, providing an in-depth analysis and comparison of the corporate and business unit performance of individual postal operators. The report includes a broad range of analyses across key areas including: industry megatrends and strategy; financial performance; revenue and cost drivers; competition and innovation; mergers and acquisitions, and corporate social responsibility. It also covers important trends such as e-substitution, e-commerce, privatisation and business and geographical diversification. 2016 MARKET INTELLIGENCE GLOBAL POSTAL INDUSTRY REPORT 2016 A global review of industry performance and trends 136 pages November 2016 download www.ipc.be FIG. 1.2 REVENUE SEGMENTS, 2014-15 FIG. 1.3 CORPORATE REVENUE & PROFITABILITY, 2014-15 NO AU TNT LU CZ HK US IE KR PT CA Logistics & freight Financial services Parcels & express Total revenue Revenue growth Revenue decline 26 POSTS RECORDING REVENUE GROWTH IN 2015 The stagnation of income from traditional services is counterbalanced almost everywhere by the expanding parcel business. Magyar Posta Annual Report 2015
Mobile internet retail sales Non-mobile internet retail sales +8.3% +11.3% 6,826m 2,229m 5,134m 5,936m 5,320m 2011 2015 2020(f) 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Listed since Between January 2015 and January 2016, PostNL s share price increased 13.1%, ending 2015 at 3.50. The operator saw its share price reach its highest monthly rate since April 2012 at the beginning of May 2015 shortly after the announcement of FedEx intention to acquire TNT Express reaching 4.47. PostNL has not paid a dividend to shareholders since 2011. The operator reports that it will not pay a dividend in 2016 for results from 2015 as the two criteria for dividend payout a positive consolidated equity and a credit rating of BBB+/Baa1 were not met. Source: PostNL annual reports 2011-15, www.postnl.com, Reuters, Financial Times, Yahoo Finance, IPC analysis Note: Analyst consensus calculated as an average across individual analyst recommendations using Reuters 1-5 linear scale, which ranges from Buy (1) to Sell (5). Outperform (underperform) means a stock is expected to do slightly better (worse) than the market return. PostNL shares Issue price 7.99 Stock exchange Ticker symbol Shares outstanding Free float 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 Share price, 26 May 2011 as PostNL NYSE Euronext (Amsterdam) PNL 441.57 million 419.26 million 0.00 06/11 06/12 06/13 11 Netherlands 12 Inflation Europe 13 Traded volume ( 000) 06/14 06/15 14 Lending interest rate Institutional/other 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 92. 8. Shareholder structure 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00-1.00 2011 2012 2013 2014 ages are based upon data from 27 countries. 11 Netherlands 12 13 14 Europe 15(f) 16(f) 17(f) 15 16(f) 17(f) 18(f) 19(f) 20(f) Retail 2011 Country/region Netherlands 18% UK 17% Rest of Europe 22% North America 42% Other 1% Earnings per share, 18(f) 2012 12% 1 8% 6% 4% 2% 11 12% 1 8% 6% 4% 2% Dividend per share, 2013 12 2014 Netherlands Holding 2015 Europe Consensus BUY OUTPERFORM HOLD UNDERPEFORM SELL Buy 7 Analyst recommendations 11 12 13 14 15(f) 16(f) 17(f) 5.6% 8.2% 12.9% 12.3% Exports Imports 2014 14.2% 2014 505bn 57.3% 442bn 22.2% 67.3% Germany Belgium UK Other Internet retail share of total retail sales 13 14 15 16(f) 17(f) 18(f) 19(f) 20(f) Royal Ahold NV 35% 10.2% 3 RFS Holding BV Media products 5.8% 25% Zalando GmBH 3.8% 2 Apparel & footwear Coolblue NV 2.9% Internet retail 15% 2.6% Apple Inc market share Consumer electronics 1 2015 Food & drink 5% Housewares & home furnishings 74.7% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% 18% 21% 24% 27% 3 33% 36% 39% 42% Other CAGR 2010-14 Source: Euromonitor International, Royal Ahold, IPC analysis Note: Regional values refer to unweighted averages calculated using data from 46 countries based upon IPC s regional classification. European averages are based upon data from 27 countries. 1 Sell Outperform 1 1 5 Underperform 18(f) Hold IPC CARRIER INTELLIGENCE REPORTS IPC Carrier Intelligence Reports provide instant access to critical financial, operational, strategic and market information for 50 leading postal and parcel operators from around the world in an easy-to-read, consistent format. The reports provide operator-specific analysis on topics of key strategic importance for the postal sector, including: information on the macro environment; corporate governance and strategy; consolidated and business unit performance; corporate social responsibility and; business outlook and strategic targets. IPC Carrier Intelligence Reports have been specifically designed to meet the market intelligence needs of industry executives as well as consultants and analysts engaged in research throughout the postal and parcel sectors. The reports are updated throughout the year, in line with annual and quarterly reports being published as well as with other key publications and press releases. SHARES & ANALYTICS AVERAGE OF 3.7M POSTNL SHARES TRADED PER DAY IN 2015 KEY INFORMATION OWNERSHIP PROFILE MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS COMMENT SHARE PERFORMANCE EARNINGS & DIVIDENDS ANALYST COVERAGE GDP GROWTH UNEMPLOYMENT S TRADE OOK utch economy saw strong growth in private consumption in 2015, driven by an improving housing market and real wage growth. ued improvement in the housing market, combined with tax cuts set to take effect during the year, will lead to further growth in consumption in 2016. However, the Dutch Central Bank forecasts at slight slowing in GDP growth for 2016 (1.7% vs. 1.9% for 2015), wer gas production and international economic and political tensions holding back growth. Improving conditions for major trading rs, including the UK and Germany, will boost export growth, though. A, ITC Trade Map, World Bank, OECD, De Nederlandsche Bank, IPC analysis d private consumption expressed as percentage of GDP. National (sovereign) rating from Standard & Poor s. Regional values refer to unweighted averages calculated using data from 46 CARRIER INTELLIGENCE REPORT 7 NETHERLANDS: E-COMMERCE M-COMMERCE TO ACCOUNT FOR OVER HALF OF INTERNET RETAIL IN 2020 E-COMMERCE GROWTH E-COMMERCE PER CAPITA E-COMMERCE MATURITY COMMENT In 2015, e-commerce spending per capita in the Netherlands reached 448, compared with a European average spend of 320 per person. Between 2011 and 2015, the Dutch e-commerce market grew 11.3% a year. By 2020, the e-commerce market will be worth 12.1bn. Dutch e-commerce market leader Royal Ahold is the parent company for a number of leading e-commerce brands including grocery retailer Albert Heijn and general merchandise marketplace Bol.com. During 2016, Bol.com plans to begin construction of its own fulfilment centre to accelerate delivery of customer orders. The company already offers same-day collection through Albert Heijn s stores. LEADING E-COMMERCE SECTORS Internet retail share 2014 LEADING E-RETAILERS 2016 - ipc.be CARRIER INTELLIGENCE REPORT 9 5 IPC MARKET INTELLIGENCE PRODUCTS
INTERNATIONAL POST CORPORATION IPC MARKET INTELLIGENCE PRODUCTS ABOUT INTERNATIONAL POST CORPORATION International Post Corporation (IPC) is the leading service provider of the global postal industry that provides leadership by driving service quality, interoperability and business-critical intelligence to support posts in defending existing business and expanding into new growth areas. It is a cooperative association of 24 member postal operators in Asia Pacific, Europe and North America. IPC s solutions and services are used by over 180 posts worldwide. Since 1989 IPC has set standards for upgrading quality and service performance and developed technological solutions that help members enhance service for international letters, packets and parcels. IPC engages in industry research, creates business-critical intelligence, provides a range of platforms and programmes for member post CEOs and senior management to exchange best practices and discuss strategy. IPC also manages the system for incentive-based payments between postal operators. For rmation please visit our website www.ipc.be or contact us at info@ipc.be. International Post Corporation Avenue du Bourget 44 1130 Brussels, Belgium Tel +32 (0)2 724 72 11 Fax +32 (0)2 724 72 32 www.ipc.be info@ipc.be Follow us on LinkedIn and Twitter (@IntPostCorp)