Investment Challenges & Opportunities in the Current Environment John Augustine, CFA Chief Economic & Market Strategist Fifth Third Bank March 213 Fifth Third Bank All Rights Reserved
Fifth Third Bank Overview (12/31/12) Headquartered in Cincinnati, Ohio Operates four main businesses: Commercial Banking, Branch Banking, Consumer Lending, Investment Advisors 15 affiliates across the Midwest and Southeast United States Missouri Illinois Michigan Indiana Ohio West Virginia Pennsylvania 1,325 banking centers; 2,415 ATMs $122 billion in bank assets Kentucky Tennessee North Carolina $38 billion in custody assets under care Georgia $27 billion in managed assets for individuals, corporations and not-for-profit organizations Florida Listed on NASDAQ, Ticker: FITB Data as of 2Q12 unless noted otherwise; ranked among U.S. commercial banks * Ranking of U.S. banks as of 8/28/212 2 Fifth Third Bank All Rights Reserved
1) Macro Environment in 11 Slides 3 Fifth Third Bank All Rights Reserved
#1 Global Economy Focus Trillion Dollar Club Update Global GDP = $69.9 trillion 213 GDP growth estimate (IMF) = 3.5% 16 14 12 1 $14,991 8 6 4 $7,318 $5,867 2-2 $3,6 $2,773 $2,476 $2,445 $2,193 $1,857 $1,847 $1,736 $1,476 $1,379 $1,153 $1,116 2.% 8.2% 1.2%.6%.3% 3.5% 1.% -1.% 3.7% 5.9% 1.8% -1.5% 3.1% 3.5% 1.6% Source = GDP data are 9/12 or 12/12 numbers from Bloomberg; 213 GDP growth estimates from IMF (1/13) 4 Fifth Third Bank All Rights Reserved
#2 Global Demographic Focus US is the youngest of the Developed Economies 5 Fifth Third Bank All Rights Reserved
#3 Global Economy Focus LEI s are hooking-up YoY Top 1 Economies - YoY LEI Trends 3 3 2 1 India Brazil Japan US UK Germany China France Russia Italy 2 1-1 -1-2 -2-3 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 (% 1YR) Leading Index Total, 1996=1, SA - United States (% 1YR) Leading Index Total, 1996=1 - China, Peoples Rep Of Deu Cli Leading Indicator Trend Restored, Growth Rate Same Period Previous Year, Sa, % - Germany (% 1YR) Leading Index, Total Composite, 25=1 - Japan Gbr Cli Leading Indicator Trend Restored, Growth Rate Same Period Previous Year, Sa, % - United Kingdom Bra Cli Leading Indicator Trend Restored, Growth Rate Same Period Previous Year, Sa, % - Brazil Fra Cli Leading Indicator Trend Restored, Growth Rate Same Period Previous Year, Sa, % - France Ita Cli Leading Indicator Trend Restored, Growth Rate Same Period Previous Year, Sa, % - Italy Ind Cli Leading Indicator Trend Restored, Growth Rate Same Period Previous Year, Sa, % - India Rus Cli Leading Indicator Trend Restored, Growth Rate Same Period Previous Year, Sa, % - Russia -3 6 Fifth Third Bank All Rights Reserved
#4 Global Stock Market US leading and breaking above the range MSCI US vs. MSCI World ex US 6 2,5 55 5 MSCI US (R) MSCI World ex-us (L) 2, 45 4 1,5 35 3 1, 25 2 5 15 1 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 ' '1 '2 '3 '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 MSCI AC World ex USA - Total Return Index (Left) MSCI US Investable Market (25) - Total Return Index (Right) 7 Fifth Third Bank All Rights Reserved
#5 Global G-4 Currency Focus Pound and Yen trade places; Euro stays weak Select Currency Values to US Dollar 2.2 7 2 8 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 Yen (R) Pound (L) Euro (L) 9 1 11 12 13 14.8 Lines moving lower = stronger US Dollar 15.6 '98 '99 ' '1 '2 '3 '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 FX Rate - Spot Mid - US Dollar per Euro (Right) FX Rate - Spot Mid - Japanese Yen per US Dollar (Left) FX Rate - Spot Mid - US Dollar per British Pounds (Right) 16 8 Fifth Third Bank All Rights Reserved
#6 US Economic Focus GDP growth expectations are mixed Real GDP Annualized v s. Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) YoY Trend 15 25 year average 15 1 1 5 2.48.1 5-5 -5-1 -1-15 '88 '89 '9 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 ' '1 '2 '3 '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 Gross Domestic Product, Real %Chg P/P - United States (% 1YR) Leading Index Total, 24=1, SA - United States (AVG) Gross Domestic Product, Real %Chg P/P - United States -15 21 211 212 213 214 Actual annualized Real GDP growth*: 2.4% 1.8% 2.2% Fifth Third estimate: 2.45 2.6 Bloomberg consensus: 1.9 2.7 Federal Reserve: 2.65 3.25 IMF: 2. 3. * Source = Moody s economy.com Projections = Bloomberg; IMF; Federal Reserve 9 Fifth Third Bank All Rights Reserved
#7 US Economic Focus Economic basics narrowing, but still positive YoY C + E + I + G 3 3 2 2 1 Consumption Investment Ex ports Government 1-1 -1-2 -2-3 '88 '89 '9 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 ' '1 '2 '3 '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 (% 1YR) Govt Current Receipts & Expenditures, Total Expenditures, Bil. $, Saar - United States (% 1YR) Gross Private Domestic Investment, Bil. Chained 25 $, Saar - United States (% 1YR) Net Exports Of Goods & Services, Exports, Bil. Chained 25 $, Saar - United States (% 1YR) Personal Consumption Expenditures, Bil. $, Saar - United States -3 1 Fifth Third Bank All Rights Reserved
#8 US Federal Government Focus Private Sector slowing; Government growing Federal Government vs. GDP Growth 3 3 25 2 Federal Govt % of GDP 25 2 15 15 1 1 5 Nominal GDP - YoY % change 5-5 '47 '49 '51 '53 '55 '57 '59 '61 '63 '65 '67 '69 '71 '73 '75 '77 '79 '81 '83 '85 '87 '89 '91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '1 '3 '5 '7 '9 '11 (% 1YR) Gross Domestic Product, Bil. $, Saar - United States (Federal Govt Current Receipts & Expenditures, Current Expenditures, Bil. $, SAAR - United States / Gross Domestic Product, Bil. $, SAAR - United States) * Trendline: Linear Trendline: Linear -5 11 Fifth Third Bank All Rights Reserved
#9 US Fiscal Policy Focus Kicking the can down the road US Fiscal Balances and Interest Cost 18, 16, 14, Total Debt (L) Ex penditures (R) 4,5 4, 3,5 12, 1, Receipts (R) 3, 2,5 8, 2, 6, 1,5 4, 1, 2, '88 '89 '9 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 ' '1 '2 '3 '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 Interest on Public Debt Federal Debt, Total Public Debt Outstanding - United States / 1 (Left) Federal Govt Current Receipts & Expenditures, Current Expenditures, Bil. $, Saar - United States (Right) Federal Govt Current Receipts & Expenditures, Current Receipts, Bil. $, Saar - United States (Right) (MOV 1Y) Federal Budget, Monthly Treasury Statement, Fiscal Year to Date, Outlays, Dep. of the Treasury, Interest on the Public Debt, Millions of USD - U 5 12 Fifth Third Bank All Rights Reserved
#1 US Monetary Policy Focus Can the Fed normalize and not affect the economy? Federal Reserve Balance Sheet ($ billions) and Target Rate 6 5 Fed Balance Sheet 3,5 3, 4 3 2 Bank Deposits with Fed Treasuries Mortgage Bonds 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 1 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 H.4.1- Liabilities of All Federal Reserve Banks, Deposits, Depository Institutions (Mil $) - United States / 1 (Right) H.4.1- Assets of All Federal Reserve Banks, Total Assets (Mil $) - United States / 1 (Right) H.4.1- Assets of All Federal Reserve Banks, U.S. Treasury (Mil $) - United States / 1 (Right) H.4.1- Assets of All Federal Reserve Banks, Mortgage-backed Securities (Mil $) - United States / 1 (Right) US Federal Funds Target Rate - Yield (Left) Fed Funds Rate (L) 5 13 Fifth Third Bank All Rights Reserved
#11 US Inflation Focus Will it be inflation or deflation??? Headline CPI (% YOY) 25 25 2 2 15 15 1 1 5 3.35 1.98 5-5 -5-1 -1-15 -15-2 '13 '17 '21 '25 '29 '33 '37 '41 '45 '49 '53 '57 '61 '65 '69 '73 '77 '81 '85 '89 '93 '97 '1 '5 '9 (% 1YR) CPI All items, Percent, Chg Y/Y - United States [Last: 1.98] (AVG, % 1YR) CPI All items, Percent, Chg Y/Y - United States [Last: 3.35] -2 14 Fifth Third Bank All Rights Reserved
2) Market Environment in 1 Slides 15 Fifth Third Bank All Rights Reserved
#1 US Market Relationships Gold/Stocks/1yr Treasury yield in same direction S&P 5 vs. Gold vs. 1-year Treasury Yield (inverted) 2, 1, 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 Gold S&P 5 1yr Yield 2 4 6 8 1 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 '63 '65 '67 '69 '71 '73 '75 '77 '79 '81 '83 '85 '87 '89 '91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '1 '3 '5 '7 '9 '11 Standard & Poors 5 Composite Index, Price Return, Close - United States (Left) Precious Metals Gold Spot, USD, Close - World (Left) US Benchmark Bond - 1 Year - Yield (Right) 12 14 16 18 16 Fifth Third Bank All Rights Reserved
#2 US Stock Market (S&P 5) Third period of being stuck S&P 5 Price Index 3 2, Moves higher on combination of: monetary & fiscal policy normalization and private sector growth 6 years 2, 1, 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1, 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 9 years 1 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 8 7 6 5 4 1 22 years WWII Victory Volcker rate hikes (inflation halted); Reagan tax cuts; Baby Boomers consumerism 1 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 8 7 6 5 4 '28 '31 '34 '37 '4 '43 '46 '49 '52 '55 '58 '61 '64 '67 '7 '73 '76 '79 '82 '85 '88 '91 '94 '97 ' '3 '6 '9 '12 Standard & Poors 5 Composite Index, Price Return, Close - United States 17 Fifth Third Bank All Rights Reserved
#3 US Stock Market (S&P 5) (EPS x PE Multiple) + DPS = Total Return Basis S&P 5 Index - Trailing 12-month PE Multiple vs. EPS vs. DPS 12 4 1 EPS (L) DPS (R) 35 8 6 4 Avg PE PE Multiple (R) 3 25 2 15 2 1 '54 '57 '6 '63 '66 '69 '72 '75 '78 '81 '84 '87 '9 '93 '96 '99 '2 '5 '8 '11 S&P 5 - Index Price Level / AVAIL(ECON_CLIENT[SP5_PE],SPEC_ID[SP5:FMA_PE(LTM,'PORTAGG','MEANR')]) [Max: 14.3, Min: 2.7, L (AVG) AVAIL(ECON_CLIENT[SP5_PE],SPEC_ID[SP5:FMA_PE(LTM,'PORTAGG','MEANR')]) [Max: 16.36, Min: 16.36, Last: 16.36] (Right) AVAIL(ECON_CLIENT[SP5_PE],SPEC_ID[SP5:FMA_PE(LTM,'PORTAGG','MEANR')]) [Max: 31.13, Min: 6.84, Last: 15.38] (Right) S&P 5 - Dividends per Share [Max: 34.92, Min: 12.1, Last: 34.92] (Right) 5 18 Fifth Third Bank All Rights Reserved
#4 US Stock Market (S&P 5) What will drive future profit growth? S&P 5 - Revenues and Margins 1,2 1,1 1, S&P 5 - Sales per Share (Left) S&P 5 - Gross Margin (Right) 35 3 25 1 2 2 9 8 S&P 5 - Operating Margin (Right) S&P 5 - Net Margin (Right) 15 1 3 4 7 5 Reduce share count >>>> 5 6 '3 '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 S&P 5 - Net Margin (Right) S&P 5 - Operating Margin (Right) S&P 5 - Gross Margin (Right) S&P 5 - Sales per Share (Left) 19 Fifth Third Bank All Rights Reserved
#5 US Bond Market Falling for 3-years; when will yields reverse higher? 1-year and 3-month Treasury Yields 18 18 16 16 14 14 12 12 1 1 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 1yr Treasury 3-month T-Bill '53 '56 '59 '62 '65 '68 '71 '74 '77 '8 '83 '86 '89 '92 '95 '98 '1 '4 '7 '1 Government Benchmarks 1 year, Yield, Percent, Close - United States US Benchmark Bond - 3 Month - Yield 2 2 Fifth Third Bank All Rights Reserved
#6 US Bond Market Can the Fed keep the US bond market sedated? 1-year Treasury Yield vs. Nominal GDP Trend 12 12 1 1 8 8 6 6 4 2 3.46 2. 4 2-2 -2-4 -4-6 '88 '89 '9 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 ' '1 '2 '3 '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 (% 1YR) Gross Domestic Product, Bil. $, Saar - United States US Benchmark Bond - 1 Year - Yield -6 21 Fifth Third Bank All Rights Reserved
#7 US Bond Market Yield spreads not signaling economic risk Corporate Yield Spreads 25 25 2 2 15 15 1 1 5 HY Avg 5 High Yield '98 '99 ' '1 '2 '3 '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 BofA Merrill Lynch U.S. High Yield - Master II - Yield To Worst - US Benchmark Bond - 1 Year - Yield iboxx USD Corporates A Rated - Benchmark Spread - Bond / 1 (AVG) iboxx USD Corporates A Rated - Benchmark Spread - Bond / 1 (AVG) BofA Merrill Lynch U.S. High Yield - Master II - Yield To Worst - US Benchmark Bond - 1 Year - Yield 'A' Avg A 22 Fifth Third Bank All Rights Reserved
#8 Stock/Bond Relative Valuation Abnormal stock/bond relationship exists Fed Model 18 18 16 16 14 14 12 12 1 1 8 6 S&P 5 Earnings Yield 8 6 4 4 2 14.12% avg. annual 4.4% avg. return annual return '54 '57 '6 '63 '66 '69 '72 '75 '78 '81 '84 '87 '9 '93 '96 '99 '2 '5 '8 '11 23 Fifth Third Bank All Rights Reserved 1-year Treasury Yield AVAIL(ECON_CLIENT[SP5_PE],SPEC_ID[SP5:FMA_PE(LTM,'PORTAGG','MEANR')]) * 1 [Max: 14.63, Min: 3.21, Last: 6.5] US Benchmark Bond - 1 Year - Yield [Max: 15.84, Min: 1.39, Last: 2.] 2
#9 Stock/Bond Income Relationship Dividend yield above 1-year Treasury S&P 5 Dividend Yield vs. 1-year Treasury Yield 16 16 14 14 12 12 1 1 8 8 6 6 4 2 S&P 5 1yr Treasury 4 2 '52 '55 '58 '61 '64 '67 '7 '73 '76 '79 '82 '85 '88 '91 '94 '97 ' '3 '6 '9 '12 S&P 5 Dividend Yield - Annual Data 1925 US Benchmark Bond - 1 Year - Yield 24 Fifth Third Bank All Rights Reserved
#1 US Dollar Index* vs. Price of Gold Gold is expensive, but a new reserve currency Gold vs. Dollar Index* 18 2, 16 Gold (R) 1,8 1,6 14 1,4 1,2 12 1 8 Gold Trend Dollar Trend DXY (L) 1, 8 6 4 2 6 '72 '74 '76 '78 '8 '82 '84 '86 '88 '9 '92 '94 '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 AVAIL(ECON_CLIENT[DXY.Z_HISTORIC],SPEC_ID[DXY.Z:FG_PRICE]) (Right) Trendline: Linear Gold (NYM $/ozt) Continuous Contract - Futures Price Close (Left) Trendline: Linear * Dollar Index = Euro = 57%; Yen = 14%; Pound = 12%; Canadian Dollar = 9%; Swedish Krona = 4%; Swiss Franc = 4% 25 Fifth Third Bank All Rights Reserved
3) Investment Management Observations 26 Fifth Third Bank All Rights Reserved
Broad Observations in Investment Management 1. Government policy issues will be a continuing source of challenge for the decade. Business and Investors will need to manage through this risk. 2. Sovereign bonds are no longer risk-free. Diversify between creditor & debtor nations. Diversify municipal bonds between various US states. 3. There will be an eventual lift in interest rates and/or inflation. Prepare to be nimble in the bond market by utilizing individual bonds where possible. 4. There will be an eventual rotation from return of principal back to return on principal. It will take monetary & fiscal policy normalization, private/public sector peace, sustained GDP growth, sustained consumer confidence. 5. Stocks are the new Bonds; Cash is no longer an investment asset class. Stocks have lower valuations and higher current income yields. Time if currently the friend of stocks and the enemy of bonds. 6. Real Assets and Absolute Return Funds are wealth defenders against policy errors. Real Assets (commodities, real estate, gold) defend against monetary policy errors causing inflation and/or currency declines. Absolute Return defends against fiscal policy errors affecting economic activity, earnings and/or sovereign debt risk. 27 Fifth Third Bank All Rights Reserved
Disclosures and Disclaimers The opinions expressed herein are those of Fifth Third Bank, Investment Advisors Division, and may not actually come to pass. This information is current as of the date of the presentation and is subject to change at any time, based on market and other conditions. Prior to making any financial or investment decision, you should assess, or seek advice from a professional regarding, whether any particular transaction is relevant or appropriate to your individual circumstances. Index performance is used throughout this presentation to illustrate historical market trends and performance. Indexes are unmanaged and do not incur investment management fees. An investor is unable to invest in an index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Fifth Third Asset Management, Inc (FTAM) is an indirect, wholly owned subsidiary of Fifth Third Bancorp and an affiliated company with Fifth Third Bank Investment Advisors division. Fifth Third Bank provides access to investments and investment services through various subsidiaries, including Fifth Third Securities. Fifth Third Securities is the trade name used by Fifth Third Securities, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, a registered brokerdealer and a registered investment advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Securities and investments offered through Fifth Third Securities, Inc. and insurance products: Are Not FDIC Insured Offer No Bank Guarantee May Lose Value Are Not Insured By Any Federal Government Agency Are Not A Deposit Insurance products made available through Fifth Third Insurance Agency, Inc. 28 Fifth Third Bank All Rights Reserved