Daily Macro Brief Wednesday 8 March 217 kjersti.haugland@dnb.no
Overview Today s calendar USA: ADP National employment in February. Consensus: Up 19k USA: Labour costs revised in Q4. Consensus: 1.6% USA: Productivity revised in Q4. Consensus: 1.5% Germany: Industrial output in January. Consensus: 2.4% m/m UK: RICS Housing survey in February. Consensus: Down 2p to 23p Switzerland: CPI in February. Previous:.% m/m China: Dollar-denominated exports in February. Consensus: 12.2% y/y China (Thursday morning): CPI in February. Consensus: 1.7% y/y China (Thursday morning): PPI in February. Consensus: 7.7% y/y Daily Macro Brief page 2
Overview Since last report Global: OECD Interim Economic Outlook: Modest pick-up for global growth Norway: Regional network survey shows solid upswing in production Norway: Manufacturing output up.2% m/m in January, as expected USA: Trade balance -48.5bn USD in January, as expected USA: Consumer credit was 8.8bn in January, down from 14.2bn in December. EMU: GDP up.4% q/q for Q4, as expected and unchanged from prelim. reading Germany: Industrial orders fell 7.4% m/m in January. Expected: -2.5% UK: Halifax house prices rose.1% m/m in February. Consensus:.3% Japan: GDP rose by.3% q/q in Q4, revised up from.2%. Markets: Stock and bond market movements were mixed and limited yesterday. The NOK strengthened in the wake of Norges Bank s regional network survey yesterday. The pound sterling weakened, partly due to a vote in Parliament on the prime minister s right to start formal Brexit talks. Daily Macro Brief page 3
Calendar Tuesday Importance GMT+1 Country Event Period Unit Last Cons. DNB Actual Tuesday 7 March China FX Reserves Feb tn USD 2.998 2.973 3.5 8: Germany Industrial Orders Jan m/m % 5.2-2.5-7.4 8: Norway Manufacturing Output Jan m/m % 1.1.2.3.2 9:3 UK Halifax House Prices Feb m/m % -1.1r.3.1 1: Norway Regional Network Survey* N/A Index.73.81 1.2 11: EMU GDP Revised Q4 q/q %.4.4.4 11: EMU GDP Revised Q4 y/y % 1.7 1.7 1.7 14:3 USA International Trade Jan bn USD -44.3-48.5-48.5 15: Norway Vice Governor Egil Matsen speaks at Energy-conference 21: USA Consumer Credit Jan bn USD 14.16 17. 8.8 Daily Macro Brief page 4
Calendar Wednesday Thursday morning Importance GMT+1 Country Event Period Unit Last Cons. DNB Actual Wednesday 8 March :5 Japan GDP Revised Q4 q/q %.2.4.3 China Exports Feb y/y % 7.9 12.3 China Imports Feb y/y % 16.7 2. China Trade Balance Feb bn USD 51.35 25.8 8: Germany Industrial Output Jan m/m % -3 2.4 9:15 Switzerland CPI Feb m/m % 13: USA MBA Purchase Index w/e Index 231 14:15 USA ADP National Employment Feb 1 246 19 14:3 USA Labor Costs Revised Q4 % 1.7 1.6 14:3 USA Productivity Revised Q4 % 1.3 1.5 Thursday 9 March 1:1 UK RICS Housing Survey Feb Index 25 23 2:3 China CPI Feb m/m % 1.6 2:3 China CPI Feb y/y % 2.5 1.7 2:3 China PPI Feb y/y % 6.9 7.7 Daily Macro Brief page 5
OECD Interim Economic Outlook (I) Global: Global growth set to pick-up modestly Daily Macro Brief page 6
OECD Interim Economic Outlook (II) Global: Disconnect markets and fundamentals Daily Macro Brief page 7
OECD Interim Economic Outlook (III) Global: Political uncertainty Daily Macro Brief page 8
OECD Interim Economic Outlook (IV) Global: Negative effects of increased trade-costs Daily Macro Brief page 9
OECD Interim Economic Outlook (V) Global: GDP growth projections Daily Macro Brief page 1
Norges Banks Regional Network 217-1 (25 Jan. - 17 Feb.) Norway: Growth is picking up Index for actual output growth past 3 months at.83, vs.6 in November. Level consistent with annualised growth at 1.7%. Expected output growth next 6 months at 1.2 vs.73 in November. Consistent with 2.% annual growth. Norges Bank expects 1.5% GDP Mainland growth in 217. Capacity utilization: 26% of surveyed companies face capacity constraints, and 12% say labour supply limits production. A little up from November, but still low. 4 3 2 1-1 Reg. network. Change Last 3m and next6m. Scale -5 to +5. Prod. rha -2-4 Jul-7 Jul-9 Jul-11 Jul-13 Jul-15 Jul-17 Production Source: Norges Bank/DNB Markets Employment 8 6 4 2-2 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Reg.network: Capacity constraints? Percentage share Feb-7 Feb-9 Feb-11 Feb-13 Feb-15 Feb-17 Hard to accomodate higher demand Production limited by shortage of labor supply Source: Norges Bank/DNB Markets Daily Macro Brief page 11
Norges Banks Regional Network 217-1 (25 Jan. - 17 Feb.) Norway: Improvement in oil services, still decline 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 Reg. network: Production. Change Last 3m and next 6m. Scale -5 to +5. Prod. rha -4-8 Jul-7 Jul-9 Jul-11 Jul-13 Jul-15 Jul-17 Oil supp. Domestic Export Source: Norges Bank/DNB Markets 1 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 Daily Macro Brief page 12
Norges Banks Regional Network 217-1 (25 Jan. - 17 Feb.) Norway: Improvement in household services 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2 Reg. network: Production. Change Last 3m and next 6m. Scale -5 to +5. Prod. rha -3-6 Jul-7 Jul-9 Jul-11 Jul-13 Jul-15 Jul-17 Retail sales B2B Services Househ.services Source: Norges Bank/DNB Markets 1 8 6 4 2-2 -4 Daily Macro Brief page 13
Norges Banks Regional Network 217-1 (25 Jan. - 17 Feb.) Norway: Investments expected to remain low 3 2 1-1 -2 Expected investments next 12m Index -5 to +5, lh scale. Percent, rh axis 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -3 Feb-7 Feb-9 Feb-11 Feb-13 Feb-15 Feb-17 Total Manuf. Retail Services Local gov't Source: Norges Bank/DNB Markets Daily Macro Brief page 14
Norges Banks Regional Network 217-1 (25 Jan. - 17 Feb.) Norway: Employment to increase 3 2 1-1 -2 Reg. network: Employment. Change Last 3m & next 3m. Scale -5 to +5. Percent rha 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -3 Jul-7 Jul-9 Jul-11 Jul-13 Jul-15 Jul-17 Manuf. Const. Retail Services Source: Norges Bank/DNB Markets Daily Macro Brief page 15
Norges Banks Regional Network 217-1 (25 Jan. - 17 Feb.) Norway: Still ample capacity Daily Macro Brief page 16
Norges Banks Regional Network 217-1 (25 Jan. - 17 Feb.) Norway: Regional differences remain 9 RN: Hard to meet higher demand Percent share 9 RN: Hard to meet higher demand Percent share 75 75 6 6 45 45 3 3 15 15 Feb-7 Feb-9 Feb-11 Feb-13 Feb-15 Feb-17 North Mid Inland East Source: Norges Bank/DNB Markets Feb-7 Feb-9 Feb-11 Feb-13 Feb-15 Feb-17 North West South West South Source: Norges Bank/DNB Markets Daily Macro Brief page 17
Norges Banks Regional Network 217-1 (25 Jan. - 17 Feb.) Wage growth expected at 2.5% Actual selling prices up slightly over the past 12 months. Retail trade prices have risen markedly after a sharp decline, but increase has slowed since November. More than 5% of all contacts expect a higher rise in the prices next 12 months. Projected wage growth in 217 unchanged at 2.5% y/y 7 6 5 4 3 Reg.network: Price expectations Change in selling prices next 12m,. Diff. index 2 Feb-7 Feb-9 Feb-11 Feb-13 Feb-15 Feb-17 Source: Norges Bank/DNB Markets Retail/household services Other 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1.. Expected annual wage growth Per cent 24 26 28 21 212 214 216 Prev. year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 TBU Source: Norges Bank/DNB Markets Daily Macro Brief page 18
Norway: Production higher in January Manufacturing production rose.2% m/m in January. We expected a fall of.3% m/m Trend (3m/3m) rose to 7.1% a.r. Driven by an increase in consumerand energy goods, while capital- and intermediate goods fell. Assessment: Volatile data, but trend is now very strong indicating that manufacturing output have flattened out somewhat and showing signs of growth, after a long period with a sharp fall in the aftermath of the oil price fall. We expect a slow upturn in the Norwegian economy, which is consistent with a slow uptick in manufacturing production going forward. 13 12 11 1 9 8 7 Norway: Production volume 25=1. Seasonally adjusted 6 Jan-97 Jan-2 Jan-7 Jan-12 Jan-17 Manufacturing Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Oil Daily Macro Brief page 19
Norway: Industrial production, details Industrial production m/m i % 3m a.r. % y/y in % Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Jan-17 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Extraction of oil and gas 15.7.8-3.8 2.1 22.8 # 1.9 3.7-1.4.1 Manufacturing.3. 1.1.2 7.1-3.3-4.2-2.2 -.8 Electricity supply 3.7 -.3-1.4.4 6.5 #.9.7 1.9-6.8 Intermediate goods -1.9 1.7 1.7-1.1 8.1 # -4.6-3.1 -.5 2.8 Capital goods.5-1.7 3.5-3.7 12.1 # -1.4-12.2-7.1-1.4 Consumer goods -.4.6-3.2 5.3-4. # 6.4 6. -.5 5.5 Energy goods 21.2.4-2.3 1.6 33.5 # 3.7 3.9 1.6.5 Source: Statistics Norway and DNB Markets 225 2 175 15 125 1 Norway: Manufacturing production 25=1. Seasonally adjusted 75 Jan-3 Jul-6 Jan-1 Jul-13 Jan-17 Capital Consumer Intermediate 25 22 19 16 13 1 7 Norway: Manufacturing production 25=1. Seasonally adjusted 4 Jan-7 Jan-9 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Pulp&paper Chemicals Metals Machinery Yards Furniture Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Daily Macro Brief page 2
USA: Trade deficit widened sharply in January Exports increased.6% m/m in January, after surging in December Imports rose 2.3% m/m in January, a little more than the previous months The trade deficit widened to USD48.5bn in January as expected, after shrinking to USD44.3 in December. Assessment: The deficit widened sharply, in line with expectations. Might be related to Chinese new years and should pick up in February 26 24 22 2 18 16 14 USA: Foreign trade Bill. USD, seas. adjusted -1-2 -3-4 -5 12-6 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Exports Imports Balance (rha) Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Trade balance Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Balance, bn. USD -42.6-45.5-44.3-48.5 - Canada -1.3-2.6-2.1-3.6 - Mexico -6.2-5.8-4.4-3.9 - EU -1.7-12.6-1. -9.2 - Japan -5.9-5.9-6.5-5.5 - China -31.1-3.5-27.8-31.3 - Other 12.6 12. 6.6 5. Exports, % m/m -2. -.2 2.7.6 Imports, % m/m 1.2 1.1 1.6 2.3 - ex oil, m/m 1.1.7 1.8 1.2 Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Daily Macro Brief page 21
USA: Trade balance, details -2-4 -6-8 USA: Trade balance Bn. USD. Total last 12 months -1 Jan-2 Jan-7 Jan-12 Jan-17 Japan China Canada Mexico EMU Other Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets -5-1 -15-2 -25-3 -35 USA: Trade balance Bill. USD, not seas. adjusted -4 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 China Canada EMU Japan Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Daily Macro Brief page 22
EMU: Q4 GDP revised with details GDP growth rose by.4% q/q in Q4, as stated by the previous estimate. The German and French GDP rose both by.4% q/q, the Italian by.2% and the Spanish.7%. Household consumption and government consumption rose by.4% q/q. Gross investments rose.6%. Net exports subtracted.1pp from growth, while inventories added.1pp Assessment: Domestic demand is driving growth. Private consumption has for a while been the major driver for growth and is expected to slow with higher inflation 6 3-3 -6-9 EMU: GDP Percentage change -12 Q4 24 Q4 28 Q4 212 Q4 216 q/q sa annualised Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets y/y 1..8.6.4.2. -.2 EMU: GDP q/q contribution to grow th in pct. points -.4 Q4 214 Q2 215 Q4 215 Q2 216 Q4 216 Private cons. Public cons. GFCF Net Exports Inventories GDP Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Daily Macro Brief page 23
EMU: Q4 GDP with details EZ core: GDP, seas. adjusted 8 Percent change since 28Q1 6 4 2-2 -4-6 -8-1 Q2 28 Q2 21 Q2 212 Q2 214 Q2 216 EZ Germany France Netherlands Austria Finland Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets EZ periphery: GDP, seas. adjusted Percent change since 28Q1 15 1 5-5 -1-15 -2-25 -3 Q2 28 Q2 21 Q2 212 Q2 214 Q2 216 Portugal Greece Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Italy Spain EMU: GDP Change q/q %, sa Change y/y in % Q1 216 Q2 216 Q3 216 Q4 216 Q2 216 Q3 216 Q4 216 Private cons um ption.7.3.3.4 1.9 1.8 1.8 Public cons um ption.7.3.1.4 2. 1.6 1.6 Gros s inves tm ents.3 1.2 -.7.6 3.8 2.3 1.5 Stock inves tm ents (contr.) -.2 -.2.2.1.. -.1 Exports.2 1.3.3 1.5 2.5 2.6 3.3 Im ports -.1 1.4 -.1 2. 4. 2.8 3.2 Net exports (contr.).1..2 -.1 -.5..2 Daily Macro Brief page 24
Germany: Industrial orders plunged in January Manufacturing orders fell 7.4% m/m in January. Expected -2.5%. December growth unrevised at 5.2% Underlying trend, measured as 3m/3m growth, fell sharply to.8% a.r. down from 17.2pp in December The largest fall was in the domestic market, but also export orders fell Assessment: Very volatile data and a very weak figure after a surge the previous month. Disregarding the latest reading, development over some time is pointing gradually upwards. Germany: Manufacturing Per cent, m/m Per cent, y/y 3m/3m orders, volume, sa Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Jan-17 Total -3.6 5.2-7.4 2.1 7.6 -.9.8 Domestic market -3. 7.4-1.5.1 8.2-2. 4.7 Export market -4.1 3.7-4.9 3.5 7.1. -2. Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets 125 12 115 11 15 1 95 9 Germany: Manufacturing orders Seasonally adjusted volume, 25=1 85 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Total Domestic Exports Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Daily Macro Brief page 25
Germany: Orders and production 3 Germany: Manufacturing activity Percent change y/y 2 1-1 -2-3 -4 Jan-97 Jan-2 Jan-7 Jan-12 Jan-17 New orders Production Source: Thomson Datastream/ DNB Markets Daily Macro Brief page 26
UK: House prices slightly up Halifax s home price index rose.1% m/m in February. Expected up.3% (Reuters). Annual growth rose from 3.4% to 4.8%. Nationwide s home price index rose.6% m/m in February. Annual growth up slightly from 4.3 to 4.5%. Assessment: House price growth still remain robust even though the annual rate is lower than in spring 216. Halifax point out that house prices are supported by an ongoing shortage of property for sale, low levels of housebuilding, and exceptionally low interest rates. UK: Home prices Percent, y/y Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Halifax.6 1.6-1.1.1 6.6 3.4 4.8 Nationwide..8.2.6 4.5 4.3 4.5 Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Percent, m/m 15 12 9 6 3-3 UK: Home prices Per cent, y/y -6 Feb-11 Feb-14 Feb-17 Halifax Nationwide Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Daily Macro Brief page 27
Japan: GDP revised up in Q4 Japanese GDP rose by.3% q/q in Q4,.1pp higher than the first estimate, but slightly lower than the consensus estimate (.4.%, Reuters). Investments were revised up by.6pp to.8%. Public consumption and inventories were revised down by.1pp. Assessment: Decent GDP growth in Japan. 12 Japan: GDP 8 4-4 -8-12 -16 Q4 26 Q4 211 Q4 216 q/q saar, % y/y % Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Japan: GDP q/q in % (saar) 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2 Q4 214 Q2 215 Q4 215 Q2 216 Q4 216 Private cons. Non-res. private invest. Net exports Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Public demand Inventories Other Daily Macro Brief page 28
Japan: GDP details Japan: Nat.accounts q/q, sa, % y/y, % Q1 216 Q2 216 Q3 216 Q4 216 Q2 216 Q3 216 Q4 216 Private consumption.4.2.3..5.3 1. Public consumption 1.3-1.1.2.3 1.4 1.2.8 Gross investments -.2 1.6.1.8 1.4 1.1 2.3 Public -1.2 1. -.9-2.5-2.6-2.3-3.5 Housing 1.5 3.3 2.4.1 5.3 6.3 7.5 Other private.1 1.7.3 1.7 2.5 2. 3.9 Stock investments (%GDP) -.3.3 -.4 -.2 -.2 -.3 -.6 Exports.9-1.2 2.1 2.6 1..9 4.4 Imports -1.1-1. -.3 1.3 -.5-3. -1. Net exports (%GDP).3..4.2.2.7.9 GDP.5.5.3.3.9 1.1 1.6 Memo: GDP deflator.2 -.2 -.2.1.4 -.1 -.1 Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Daily Macro Brief page 29
EURUSD EURGBP EURCHF EURSEK USDGBP USDJPY USDSEK USDCNY EURNOK USDNOK SEKNOK CHFNOK JPYNOK OSEBX OMX DAX Stoxx 6 FTSE 25 Dow Jones NASDAQ S&P 5 Nikkei 225 Hang Seng Shanghai USA Germany Japan Norway Sweden Italy Spain Markets: Overview NOK strengthened after central bank survey Stock and bond market movements were mixed and limited yesterday. The NOK strengthened in the wake of Norges Bank s regional network survey yesterday. The pound sterling weakened, partly due to a vote in Parliament on the prime minister s right to start formal Brexit talks. 1.5 FX, change in percent since 7 March 7:19* 2.5 2. Equity indices 2 1 year sov. bond yield, change in bp since 7 March 7:19* 1..5. -.5-1. -1.5 1.5 1..5. -.5-1. -1.5-2. -2.5 15 1 5-5 -1-15 -2 EUR USD NOK *GMT +1 Source: Thomson Reuters/DNB Markets % from previous to last close % since last close Source: Thomson Reuters/DNB Markets *GMT +1 **Norway, Sweden, Italy, Spain: Change in bp from previous to last close Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Daily Macro Brief page 3
Markets Equities 75 7 695 69 685 68 Mar-1 17:55 Mar-2 13:2 Mar-2 17:55 Mar-3 13:2 Europe Mar-3 17:55 Mar-6 13:2 Mar-6 17:55 Mar-7 13:2 313 312 311 31 39 38 37 36 Mar-7 17:55 239 2385 238 2375 237 2365 236 2355 Mar-3 14:15 Mar-3 21:15 Mar-6 14:5 USA Mar-6 21:5 Mar-7 15:4 214 212 21 298 296 294 292 29 288 286 284 Mar-7 22:25 Oslo Stock Exchange *GMT +1 Source: Thomson Reuters/DNB Markets EURO STOXX 5 (rha) S&P 5 *GMT +1 Source: Thomson Reuters/DNB Markets Dow Jones (rha) 24 239 238 237 236 235 234 233 Mar-2 7:5 Mar-3 3:4 Mar-3 7:4 Hang Seng *GMT +1 Source: Thomson Reuters/DNB Markets Mar-6 3:3 Asia Mar-6 7:3 Mar-7 3:2 Mar-7 7:2 Nikkei 225 (rha) Mar-8 3:1 196 195 194 193 192 191 19 Mar-8 7:2 12. 11.8 11.6 11.4 11.2 11. 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1. Mar-3 14:15 Mar-3 21:15 *GMT +1 Source: Thomson Reuters/DNB Markets Mar-6 14:5 VIX Mar-6 21:5 Mar-7 15:4 Mar-7 22:25 Daily Macro Brief page 31
Markets FX 1.65 1.6 1.55 1.5 1.45 1.4 Mar-2 11:2 EURUSD and USDJPY Mar-3 11:2 Mar-6 7:2 Mar-7 7:2 113. 113.2 113.4 113.6 113.8 114. 114.2 114.4 114.6 114.8 Mar-8 7:2 1.76 1.74 1.72 1.7 1.68 1.66 1.64 1.62 1.6 1.58 Mar-2 11:2 Mar-3 11:2 EURCHF and EURGBP Mar-6 7:2 Mar-7 7:2.87.865.86.855.85.845 Mar-8 7:2 *GMT +1 Source: Thomson Reuters/DNB Markets EURUSD USDJPY (inv,rha) *GMT +1 Source: Thomson Reuters/DNB Markets EURCHF EURGBP (rha) EURNOK and USDNOK EURSEK and SEKNOK 9.2 9. 8.98 8.96 8.94 8.92 8.9 8.88 8.86 8.84 8.82 8.8 Mar-2 11:2 Mar-3 11:2 Mar-6 7:2 Mar-7 7:2 8.52 8.5 8.48 8.46 8.44 8.42 8.4 8.38 8.36 Mar-8 7:2 9.56 9.55 9.54 9.53 9.52 9.51 9.5 9.49 Mar-2 11:2 Mar-3 11:2 Mar-6 7:2 Mar-7 7:2.922.924.926.928.93.932.934.936.938.94.942.944 Mar-8 7:2 *GMT +1 Source: Thomson Reuters/DNB Markets EURNOK USDNOK (rha) *GMT +1 Source: Thomson Reuters/DNB Markets EURSEK SEKNOK (inv,rha) Daily Macro Brief page 32
Change in bp since 7 March Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Markets Fixed income 2.53 2.52 2.52 2.51 2.51 2.5 2.5 2.49 2.49 2.48 2.48 Mar-7 8:5 Mar-7 11:35 *GMT +1 Source: Thomson Reuters/DNB Markets 1 sovereign bond yields USA Mar-7 15:5 Mar-7 18:35 Germany (rha) Mar-7 22:4.36.35.34.33.32.31.3.29.28.27 Mar-8 7:15 2.21 2.2 2.19 2.18 2.17 2.16 2.15 2.14 2.13 2.12 2.11 Mar-7 8:5 Mar-7 11:35 *GMT +1 Source: Thomson Reuters/DNB Markets 1 sovereign bond yields Italy Mar-7 15:5 Mar-7 18:35 Spain (rha) Mar-7 22:4 1.85 1.8 1.75 1.7 1.65 1.6 Mar-8 7:15 14 12 1 8 6 4-2 2-4 FRA: NOK and EUR Change in bp left axis 1.6 1.4 1.2 1..8.6.4.2. -.2 -.4 -.6 % 1.4 1.2 1..8.6.4 3m Nibor 218 219.2 NOK, change in bp NOK 8-Mar Source: Thomson Reuters/DNB Markets EUR, change in bp EUR 8-Mar. 6-Dec 6-Jan 6-Feb 6-Mar Source: Thomson Reuters/DNB Markets Daily Macro Brief page 33
Markets Miscellaneous Japan: 1 year sovereign bond yield.12.1.8.6.4.2. 6-Dec 6-Jan 6-Feb 6-Mar Source: Thomson Reuters/DNB Markets EURUSD 3m basis swap -1-2 -3-4 -5-6 -7-8 -9 6-Dec 6-Jan 6-Feb 6-Mar Source: Thomson Reuters/DNB Markets 25 2 15 1 5 8-Apr 8-Jul 8-Oct 8-Jan 8-Apr 8-Jul 8-Oct 8-Jan Source: Thomson Reuters/DNB Markets Spread over Bunds 1y, basis points France Italy Spain 57. Crude oil and gold 56.5 56. 55.5 55. 54.5 54. Mar-2 6:25 Mar-3 6:35 Mar-6 6:5 Mar-7 7: Crude, $/barrel Gold, $/ounce (rha) *GMT +1 Source: Thomson Reuters/DNB Markets 125 1245 124 1235 123 1225 122 1215 121 125 12 1195 Mar-8 7:1 Daily Macro Brief page 34
Markets Spot rates and forecasts Spot rates and forecasts FX 7 Last Today % In 1m Jun-17 Sep-17 Mar-18 FX 7 USD NOK USD/JPY 113.89 113.75 -.1 115 116 115 11 AUD.76 6.426 EUR/USD 1.587 1.564 -.2 1.4 1.3 1.2 1. CAD 1.341 6.38 EUR/GBP.8653.866.1.86.88.89.92 CHF 1.14 8.35 EUR/DKK 7.4337 7.4334. 7.46 7.46 7.46 7.46 CNY 6.91 122.61 EUR/SEK 9.5452 9.5258 -.2 9.5 9.5 9.4 9.2 CZK 25.588.331 EUR/CHF 1.713 1.711. 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.8 GBP 1.22 1.327 EUR/NOK 8.999 8.9385 -.6 8.8 8.7 8.6 8.5 HKD 7.766 1.9 USD/NOK 8.493 8.4621 -.4 8.46 8.45 8.43 8.5 KWD.36 27.662 JPY/NOK 7.46 7.44 -.2 7.36 7.28 7.33 7.73 LTL 2.854 2.965 SEK/NOK 94.25 93.89 -.4 92.6 91.6 91.5 92.4 NZD.697 5.895 DKK/NOK 12.97 12.27 -.6 118. 116.6 115.3 113.9 RUB 58.155 14.55 GBP/NOK 1.396 1.327 -.7 1.23 9.89 9.66 9.24 SEK 9.18 93.89 CHF/NOK 8.398 8.35 -.6 8.3 8.29 8.11 7.87 SGD 1.41 6. Daily Macro Brief page 35
Markets Interest rates NOK Prior Last SEK Prior Last USD Prior Last EUR Prior Last 1m.96.93 1m -.58 -.58 1m.85.85 1m -.4 -.4 3m 1..99 3m -.49 -.49 3m 1.11 1.11 3m -.35 -.35 6m 1.14 1.14 6m -.37 -.37 6m 1.42 1.42 6m -.25 -.25 2y -.29 -.29 12m 1.8 1.8 12m -.11 -.11 3y 1.42 1.42 3y -.8 -.8 3y 1.83 1.85 3y -.3 -.6 5y 1.65 1.65 5y.33.33 5y 2.9 2.11 5y.17.16 7y 1.85 1.84 7y.7.7 7y 2.25 2.28 7y.42.41 1y 2.5 2.4 1y 1.14 1.15 1y 2.43 2.44 1y.76.76 Norw ay Prior Last SEK Prior Last US Prior Last Germany Prior Last NST478/d 98.13 98.28 1y 13.28 13.28 1y 97.86 97.72 1y 99.12 99.33 1y yld 1.73 1.73 1y yld.65.65 1y yld 2.49 2.51 1y yld.34.32 US sprea -.76 -.78 US sprea -1.84-1.86 3y yld 3.1 3.11 US spread -2.15-2.19 Norw ay 3m nibor Interest rates Governm ent bonds Interest rate forecasts 1y sw ap Sw eden 3m libor 1y USA 3m libor sw ap 1y sw ap Germany 3m euribor 1y sw ap Jun-17 1.5 1.75 Jun-17 -.5 1. Jun-17 1.25 2.25 Jun-17 -.3.5 Sep-17 1.5 1.75 Sep-17 -.45 1. Sep-17 1.2 2.25 Sep-17 -.3.5 Mar-18 1. 1.75 Mar-18 -.45 1.25 Mar-18 1.4 2.25 Mar-18 -.3.75 Daily Macro Brief page 36
Markets Miscellaneous Miscellaneous NOK sov. Prior Last Change Maturity year rem. NOK-index TWI Prior NST 35/d.55.57 3 21.6.217.29 Last 19.95 11.49 NST 36/d.55.55 2.9.217.54 Oil price: (Ldn,cl) 1m NST 37/d.55.55 2.12.217.79 SPOT 54.16 55.64 NST473/d.69.69 22.5.219 2.21 Gold price 7.3.217 PM NST474/d 1.2 1.2 25.5.221 4.22 AM: 1231. 1216.7 NST478/d 1.73 1.73 19.2.226 8.96 Equities Today 7 % last NST478/d 1.73 1.73 19.2.226 8.96 S&P 5 2368.39 -.1% NST478/d 1.73 1.73 19.2.226 8.96 Dow Jones 2924.76 -.3% NOK FRA 3 mnd 6 mnd NOK NIBOR FTSE25 7338.99 -.2% Mar 1.5 1.19 1m.93 Stoxx6 372.28 -.3% Jun 1.7 1.2 3m.99 DAX 11966.14.1% Sep 1.7 1.25 6m 1.14 Nikkei 225 19254.3 -.5% Dec 1.19 1.3 OSEBX 692.93.3% Sources to all tables and graphics: Thomson Reuters, Thomson Datastream and DNB Markets Daily Macro Brief page 37
DNB Markets Macro Research Contact details Kjersti Haugland Chief Economist, EMU +47 24 16 9 1 / +47 917 23 756 kjersti.haugland@dnb.no Ole André Kjennerud Analyst, China and Japan +47 24 16 9 7 / +47 477 57 482 ole.kjennerud@dnb.no Jeanette Strøm Fjære Analyst, Norway and Sweden +47 24 16 9 3 / +47 92 37 11 jeanette.strom.fjare@dnb.no Kyrre Aamdal Senior Economist, Norway, Sweden, interest rates +47 24 16 9 2 / +47 96 61 112 kyrre.aamdal@dnb.no Knut A. Magnussen Senior Economist, USA, UK and Brazil +47 24 16 9 4 / +47 476 4 46 knut.magnussen@dnb.no Marit Øwre-Johnsen FX Analyst +47 24 16 9 8 / +47 97 42 19 marit.owre-johnsen@dnb.no Magne Østnor FX Strategist +47 24 16 9 1 / +47 97 47 92 magne.ostnor@dnb.no Daily Macro Brief page 38
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