UNION BUDGET 2016 ORGANIZED BY BFSI AND CAPITAL MARKET STUDY GROUP OF WIRC OF ICAI PRESENTATION BY : CA MANISH CHOKSHI
Trends in GDP Growth Rate (%)
GDP CALCULATION CHANGED WEF FROM SEPT 2014
GDP Growth Rate Country Wise 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
IIP INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
FISCAL DEFICIT FISCAL DEFICT % 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT AS % TO GDP
BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICE CHART
INFLATION AT WPI WHOLESALE PRICE INDEX FROM 7.52 IN NOV 2013 TO -0.09 IN JAN16
INFLATION - CPI IS RISING INSPITE OF FALL IN OIL PRICES. THIS DATA SUGGESTS THAT FURTHER REDUCTION IN INTEREST RATE MAY NOT TAKE PLACE IN 2016
Inflation Rate of Top 5 Countries
India Interest Rates 12
Rate of Interest of Top 5 Countries
FDI IN INDIA
INDIAN EXPORTS ARE FALLING
INDIAN IMPORTS ARE FALLING CONTINIOUSLY ON ACCOUNT OF OIL SLUMP
GOLD IMPORTS SURGES MORE THAN DOUBLE IN DEC 15 COMPARED TO DEC 14 ( in billion USD )
INDIAN MACRO ECONOMICS SCORE CARD
IS INDIA AN OASIS IN THE DESERT OF GLOBAL CRISIS IS INDIA A SWEAT SPOTIN THE WHOLE WORLD
CURRENCY MOVEMENTS OF EMERGING & ASIAN ECONOMIES OF THE WORLD vis-à-vis USD
CHINA GDP GROWTH RATE IS FALLING YEAR AFTER YEAR
CHINA - EXPORTS
CHINA IMPORTS
CHINA EXPORTS TO INDIA
CHINA CAPITAL FLOWS
CHINA FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT
CHINESE CURRENCY YUAN vs USD
Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index- FALL FROM 5353 TO 3051 =2302 PTS FALL =43 % FALL FROM IN JUN 2015.
BUDGET 2016 HIGHLIGHTS
STOCK MARKET
FII's MONTHLY EQUITY INVESTMENT IN 2015-16 IN RS. '000 CRORE
MONTHLY FII s INVESTMENT IN DEBT MARKET IN LAST 1 YEAR
A cumulative view Q3FY16 results of 4169 Companies are not encouraging
BSE SENSEX PE RATIO ON THIS BASIS THE MARKETS CANNOT BE SAID TO BE UNDERVALUED
PERFOMANCE OF BSE 30 AND BSE SECTORIAL INDICES
NIFTY FIFTY OUT PERFORMANCE OF NIFTY INDEX STOCKS
NIFTY FIFTY UNDER PERFORMANCE OF NIFTY INDEX STOCKS
DOW JONES COMPARE TO NIFTY NIFTY HAS FALLEN BY 20% WHILE DOW JONES HAS FALLEN BY 10%
JAPANESE NIKKEI & BSE 30 PERFORMANCE COMPARED
Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index- FALL FROM 5353 TO 3051 =2302 PTS FALL =43 % FALL FROM IN JUN 2015.
CHINESE INDEX COMPARED TO BSE 30
NIFTY INTRADAY
BSE SECTORIAL INDICES BUDGET DAY
F & O LOSERS
F & O GAINERS
NIFTY SECTORIAL INDICES
NSE CASH SCRIPS LOSERS
NSE CASH SCRIPS GAINERS
COMMODITIES & CURRENCIES GOLD GOLD BEES
GOLD IS BULLISH
CRUDE OIL FALLS 53% FROM 3918 IN 2 JUN 2015 TO 1844 ON 11 FEB 2016
EURO vs INR
GBP vs INR
USD & INR INR will continue to depreciate against USD and it will have inflationary impact
INR will continue to depreciate against USD Economic Survey on Currency Rupee's value must be fair, avoiding strengthening; fair value can be achieved through monetary relaxation India needs to prepare itself for a major currency readjustment in Asia in wake of a similar adjustment in China Gradual depreciation in rupee can be allowed if capital inflows are weak
NIFTY INTRA DAY CHART ON BUDGET
NIFTY HAS FALLEN BY 22%
BANKING SECTOR DO NOT BUY NOW PSU Banks hit by huge losses RBI has mandated to clean up and to provide fully for NPA s Banks say- the provisioning will keep on happening till next 3 quarters No clarity on the quantum of losses yet Due to uncertainty banks will continue to underperform
SBI
TATA STEEL
RELIANCE
STOCKS TO WATCH ASIAN PAINTS
STOCKS TO WATCH DEFENSIVE STOCKS HIND UNILEVER MARICO
STOCKS TO WATCH IT SECTOR INFOSYS TATA ELXI
STOCKS TO WATCH BANKING & FINANCE SECTOR KOTAK MAHINDRA BAJAJ FINANCE CHOLAMANDALAM INV
STOCKS TO WATCH PHARMA & HEALTH SECTOR LUPIN SUN PHARMA APOLLO HOSPITAL AJANTA PHARMA DR REDDY
STOCKS TO WATCH CEMENT ULTRA TECH RAMCO CEMENTS
STOCKS TO WATCH AUTO EICHER MOTORS TVS MOTOR ASHOK LEYLAND M & M
PIDILITE RAJESH EXPORTS SUPREME INDUSTRIES PIRAMAL ENTERPRISES TORRENT POWER VAKRANGEE FINOLEX INDUSTRIES
NDTV TV TODAY ZEE ENTERTAINMENT IRB
TO SUMMARIZE Economic Growth will remain stable around 7.5% but will not show impressive rise Inflation will remain stable with a positive bias The Global Risk will continue to dampen exports INR will continue to depreciate against USD RBI may not cut rate more than 0.25 till December 2016 Corporate results are not expected to show impressive growth in the next 2 quarters
TO SUMMARIZE The positive effect of GDP growth of 7.5% is not felt.
TO SUMMARIZE Market will continue to fall Still this level is not the bottom and we may see more pain Market May touch 6300 The SIP investor should continue to invest. Economic Problems in China will put pressure on Indian markets
TO SUMMARIZE The Global risk still looms large Investors with fresh funds may invest say 20 % of their total investible funds now in Nifty basket or fundamentally strong scrips and keep on adding at every 200-300 Nifty point fall. In a day or two the Budget will be forgotten.
India will continue to remain an amazing Growth Story 82
DISCLAIMER The stocks discussed here are for academic discussion and studies only. I do not advise to invest in any of the stocks as discussed above. Please check with your certified financial advisor before taking any decision.
THANKYOU VERY MUCH 84