Research Desk Stock Broking

Research Desk Stock Broking ValueMax Mar 01, 2018 ValueMax Monthly Investment Ideas ValueMax helps clients to take a long stance on stocks from the S&P BSE-100 universe. Comprising monthly technical investment ideas, ValueMax will have 10 stock recommendations, which will be issued at the beginning of every month. The selection and recommendation criteria will be based on technical analysis. ValueMax will be made available to the dealers and relationship managers through Karvy Mail. A brief technical report on the ideas will also be released, justifying our view on the stocks and the reason for the selection. The report will also be uploaded on Karvy online websites. Book profit/exit messages will be communicated during the LIVE market on NEST (trading terminal) under the head ValueMax. Please find the ValueMax investment ideas for March 2018. ADANIPORTS INFRA 408.35 Buy 390 378 440 450 AUROPHARMA PHARMA 613.90 Buy 573 544 685 705 BRITANNIA FMCG 4994.25 Buy 4750 4490 5500 5800 COALINDIA MINING 309.15 Buy 295 284 335 345 HEROMOTOCO AUTO 3596.70 Buy 3440 3300 3900 4050 INFY IT 1172.60 Buy 1130 1090 1260 1285 JSWSTEEL METALS 312.20 Buy 293 290 340 346 RELIANCE ENERGY 954.55 Buy 905 859 1060 1075 TITAN CD 816.15 Buy 775 725 925 960 UPL CHEMICALS 728.75 Buy 680 670 790 810 CMP: Current Market Price; SL: Stop Loss; TGT: Target Note: All charts are sourced from Spider Software. 1

ADANIPORTS INFRA 408.35 BUY 390 378 440 450 21 day EMA 410 390 440 50 day EMA 411 384 445 200 day EMA 388 378 450 ADANIPORTS is in continuous uptrend making higher highs and higher lows over past several months. After giving breakout from the level of 372-375 last year in May, the stock has continued the uptrend hitting life time high of 452.35 in January 2018. This month a healthy correction was witnessed in the stock offering suitable levels to the investors to take a fresh position in the stock. A close above the level of 410 would open further upside for the stock. Structurally, the stock is looking strong on the back of various technical indicators. On the weekly chart, the stock is trading above all near term and medium term moving averages providing further credence to the upward momentum in the stock. Among the leading indicators, Parabolic SAR indicates positive trend in weekly chart while 14 period RSI comfortably placed above the 9 day EMA supports the bullish stance in the stock. The MACD is trading near the signal line on weekly chart and on the verge of entering into positive territory. On the Bollinger Band set up on monthly chart, the stock is trading near middle and upper band of Bollinger Band, supporting our bullish view in the counter. Our take: The recent price action suggests the momentum in the stock to continue in the coming month as well. Thus, we recommend buying the stock for targets of 440 followed by 450 with a stop loss placed below 378 levels. 2

AUROPHARMA PHARMA 613.90 BUY 573 544 685 705 21 day EMA 602 590 640 50 day EMA 683 570 660 200 day EMA 684 550 690 AUROPHARMA has outperformed its key benchmarks indices of Nifty 50 and its sectoral index NIFTY PHARMA for the month of February 2018. The stock has lost only 2% during the same period while NIFTY 50 has lost around 5%, whereas its sectoral index NIFTY PHARMA has also lost more than 4%, thereby making AUROPHARMA as major gainer in those two key indices. During the first half of February, it has been declining continuously and later on 22nd the stock has formed a panic bottom at around 560 levels with huge volumes and since then the stock has rallied around 10% from the said lows. Since then the price magnitude, trading volumes, delivery volumes over last few days are higher on the up moves, when compared to down moves, which also adds to our bullish view on the counter from a short to medium term perspective. Over last two months IT, Pharma space has been outperforming the broader markets and it is one of the stocks in the outperforming space. Hence, we assume that AUROPHARMA has the potential to move significantly in the current month until the recent lows of 550-560 zones are breached. On a broader time frame, the stock is trading in a broad range of 500 to 900 over last three years and currently is placed at the lower end of the trading range and hence there is a high probability that stock may move towards the mid area of the said range and much higher over the coming quarters. On the Bollinger Band set up on weekly chart, the stock has formed a multi candle reversal pattern at its lower band and the band has already expanded indicating burst in volatility and the current pull back rally may take it towards the mean which is placed around 700 zone. On the oscillator front, the RSI on daily charts is placed at 50 and the signal line also suggests the upward move and more momentum is due in the counter from a near term perspective. Our take: Considering the above data facts, we recommend short to medium term investors to enter into the stock at the current levels and any dip towards the 50% retracement of the current levels can be utilized to average the stock keeping stop loss below previous month lows for the targets of previous major swing high zone. 3

BRITANNIA FMCG 4994.25 BUY 4750 4490 5500 5800 21 day EMA 4800 4800 5300 50 day EMA 4740 4550 5500 200 day EMA 4347 4400 5800 The overall chart structure of the stock suggests formation of higher tops and higher bottoms on the monthly timeframe, clearly indicating that the stock is in a secular uptrend. The stock had a stellar rally from the lows of 2772.85 made in December 2016 to the high of 4963.90 in December 2017; the stock gained around 79% in a span of around 12 months. Thereafter the stock went into correction mode and corrected around 11% from the top of 4963.90 till the lows of 4400 registered on 9 th February, 2018. Among other technical observation, the stock is finding support at the lower weekly Bollinger band (20, S,2) currently pegged at 4532. The stock has come out of downward sloping channel from the highs of 4963.90 to the lows of 4400 which indicate that the correction is over and the stock has resumed its larger uptrend. The stock is trading above its medium 100 day EMA and long term 200 day EMA. The weekly and daily RSI 14 day (68.85 & 68.00 respectively) is trading above its 9 day EMA signal line. The prices are trading above its daily, weekly and monthly Parabolic SAR indicating strong trend and ADX on daily charts has seen +DMI crossover over -DMI in the past few days indicating bullish momentum in the counter. Our take: In the fate of these technical observations, we expect the stock to continue its uptrend from here and hence any declines could be utilized for fresh long accumulation. We expect the stock to initially rise till 5500 and weekly close above that towards 5800. 4

COALINDIA MINING 309.15 BUY 295 284 335 345 21 day EMA 304 300 330 50 day EMA 295 295 335 200 day EMA 282 284 345 COALINDIA has been trading near its life time support levels (lows) for the last six months and has witnessed a significant bounce from the 240-260 zone accompanied with above average volumes on the monthly chart. The stock price has broken the streak of lower lows on the same chart indicating that going forward the recent low is most likely to hold, reversing the trend to positive from medium term perspective. On the weekly chart a resistance line drawn from the high of 349.95 to 332.30 and extended forward has been breached and re- tested at 300-302 levels with above average volumes suggesting a breakout, making current levels ideal to enter from short term perspective for potential gains. The stock has closed at the highest levels in 11 months on the monthly chart and this new found momentum is expected to continue. Comfortably placed above the major moving averages on the daily chart, the stock has been respecting the 9 and 21 day moving average as well since the second week of Feb 2018 depicting inherent strength in the counter. On the indicator front, the weekly RSI is trading in the upper end of the band while the monthly RSI is currently at levels last seen in March 2015 at 53-54. The indicator has breached the 50 mark that was the previous resistance and a move above 55 is likely to strengthen the positive move from here on, reiterating our Bullish stance on the stock. Our Take: Going forward, with current technical set up of the stock, we expect the positive run to continue in the counter, thus you may go long with stop loss placed below 284 for 335 and 345 for the month of March, 2018. 5

HEROMOTOCO AUTO 3596.70 BUY 3440 3300 3900 4050 21 day EMA 3560 3520 3620 50 day EMA 3605 3500 3660 200 day EMA 3620 3480 3700 During the month of February, the stock has traded in the negative territory generating return of over -2.60%. Correction from the higher levels of 3848 was witnessed in the stock in December. However, the stock has held firmly to its support level of 3440-3460 and rebounded from that level making higher highs and higher lows in last few sessions. On the upside, stock may face resistance around 3750 levels. If it breaks this level, it could go further to test 3850-3900 levels whereas on the other hand, the zone around 3440 will act as good support for the stock and it can be utilized to average the stock. Among the indicators and oscillators, the 14-day RSI has already given a positive crossover with 9-day signal line on weekly chart and is poised with bullish bias, clearly indicating the bullish trend in the stock is likely to continue and the counter is expected to head higher in the near term. Stochastic is trading near the signal line on weekly chart and on the verge of entering into positive territory. On the Bollinger Band set up on monthly chart, the stock is trading near middle and upper band of Bollinger Band, supporting our bullish view. Our take: Considering all the above data facts, we recommend short to medium term investors to enter the stock at the current levels for the potential targets of 4050 levels. And any correction towards the 3440 levels can be utilized to average the stock keeping strict stop loss placed below 3300 levels. 6

INFY IT 1172.60 BUY 1130 1090 1260 1285 21 day EMA 1135 1142 1200 50 day EMA 1101 1100 1260 200 day EMA 1020 1090 1285 The stock has closed the month with positive return of 1.70% and outperformed Nifty IT significantly whereas Nifty IT has closed the month with negative return of 1.40%. The stock is in uptrend and making higher highs on weekly charts. The price action in the stock reflects that, any meaningful dip in the stock attract market participant, which helps the stock to resume its up move. The stock has resumed its up move after making swing low of 1090.20 levels and bounce in the stock has seen supportive volume formation on daily charts. Prior to that, the stock has seen profit taking from its recent high of 1221 levels which has dragged the stock to the low of around 1090.20 levels in span of ten to twelve trading sessions. Thereafter, the stock has resumed its up move and outperformed its peers like HCLTECH, TCS and Wipro which have generated negative return of 4.52%, 2.54% and 3.91% respectively on monthly basis. The recent bounce in the stock from its swing low of 1090.20 levels has given V shape recovery on weekly charts which indicates strength in the counter and stock is well placed to take it up move. On the momentum setup, 14-period weekly RSI is pointing northwards after giving positive crossover with signal line and, on daily time frame oscillator is comfortable and pointing northwards, which is showing strength in the counter. The Parabolic SAR is trading below the price on weekly charts whereas on daily charts it indicates uptrend in the stock to remain intact. Our take: The stock is on the verge of giving breakout of above discussed V shape recovery at 1177 levels. The move above the said levels will provide fresh trigged to the stock and stock can touch 1280-1290 levels in near term. Hence, we are suggesting buy in the stock for the target of 1285 levels with stop loss placed below 1090 levels. 7

JSWSTEEL METALS 312.20 BUY 293 290 340 346 21 day EMA 303 306 321 50 day EMA 290 293 340 200 day EMA 252 290 346 JSWSTEEL is in a secular uptrend forming higher highs and higher lows and has been trading above a runaway gap (307.8-308.45) created recently suggesting the likely continuation of positive trend in coming days. The stock is trading well above all of its major moving average levels in daily charts indicating strength in the counter in all time frames and supporting our bullish bias. Among the leading indicators, Parabolic SAR and Heiken candlesticks indicate positive trend in weekly chart. Parabolic SAR also suggests positive trend in the daily chart. Stock has been sustaining above the mean and is moving towards the upper band in Bollinger band in the weekly chart and the bands are expanding, supporting our bullish conviction about the stock. Among the oscillators, MACD is trading above the signal line with broadening bands in weekly charts suggesting positive momentum in the counter. Another major indicator, Stochastic suggests positive momentum in the counter. Our take: The recent price action suggests the momentum in the stock to continue in the coming month as well. Thus, we recommend buying the stock for targets of 340 and 346 levels with a stop loss placed below 290 levels. 8

RELIANCE ENERGY 954.55 BUY 905 859 1060 1075 21 day EMA 932 925 990 50 day EMA 927 900 1020 200 day EMA 841 870 1050 The overall daily chart structure of RELIANCE suggests formation of cycles of higher highs and higher lows and this clearly suggests that the stock is consolidating ahead of gaining momentum to resume its upward journey in the already existing secular uptrend. The stock is consolidating comfortably above all the mentioned EMA s like the 21, 50 and 200 day EMA at Rs.932, Rs.927 & Rs.841 respectively, thereby indicating the inherent strength in the counter. Though the stock ended the month of February, 2018 with a loss of 0.70%, it outperformed the broader index Nifty (-4.85%) by a significant margin during the same period. The stock also has immediate hurdle around the Rs.970 mark, crossing and sustaining above which a good round of buying could be seen in the counter in its run up towards reclaiming the lifetime highs and in its run upto the mentioned target levels. As far as technical parameters are concerned, the 14 period RSI on weekly charts is currently at 61.00 levels, just below the RSI Avg. The RSI has already given a positive crossover above the RSI Avg (660.18) clearly suggesting enough room for the stock to move higher. On the other hand, the ADX (25.95) on weekly timeframe is also currently trading just above the 25 mark indicating that the stock can gather more momentum if it surpasses the immediate resistance around Rs.990-990 zone on a sustainable basis. Our take: We expect RELIANCE to continue its resumed uptrend towards the target levels in the uncharted territory. Therefore, we recommend buying RELIANCE around current levels, average around Rs.905 with a strict stop loss placed below Rs.859 for potential upside targets of Rs.1060- Rs.1075 in about a month s time. 9

TITAN CD 816.15 BUY 775 725 925 960 21 day EMA 826 790 850 50 day EMA 828 750 915 200 day EMA 699 725 935 Titan Ltd. is the market leader in watches and a pioneer in branded jewellery segment. In the long term, stock price is in a secular bull trend, with typical behaviour of intermittent price correction after a steady run, eventually which gives an excellent opportunity to accumulate stock. In the end of Sept 17 after placing a swing low of 563.65, stock gained momentum which took prices towards its life time high of 938.50 levels placed in the start of Jan 18, clocked gain of 67% in almost a four month s time frame. After posting a life time high stock price witnessed profit booking in last couple of trading sessions, where price retraced 50% of move started from the swing low of 563 to an all time high. In the last month, stock price made a higher swing low of 752 and witnessed quick recovery, exhibiting buying interest on dips. Technically, stock price is hovering near its 21 & 50-DEMA which is placed in the same vicinity of 828 levels, and holding well above its 200-DEMA. On the weekly technical setup momentum oscillator 14-period RSI sustained above equilibrium level from last couple of months, and on the daily time frame chart oscillator after testing oversold territory gradually recovering, indicating steady recovery in the counter. From the above observations, it is evident that stock is likely to surge higher towards its life time highs and eventually enter into an uncharted territory over the coming month. Our take The stock price is consolidating from last few sessions, and it seems that momentum is gradually picking up, which may take prices further higher over the coming month. Hence, one may consider buying stock at current market price and average the stock price on any dip towards 775 levels for the upside target of 925 and 960, placing a stop loss below 725 levels. 10

UPL CHEMICALS 728.75 BUY 680 670 790 810 21 day EMA 721 705 760 50 day EMA 739 680 790 200 day EMA 761 670 810 The stock is in the cycle of higher highs and higher lows from the lows on the daily charts and is currently placed above its major moving averages. After clocking an all time high of 902.50 levels, the counter witnessed a round of profit booking which dragged the stock towards lower levels of 680-700 which is 61.80% retracement level drawn between swing low of 584.20 and all time high of 902.500 levels. Thereafter, the stock managed to form base around the said support levels and is all set to move higher towards its recent peaks. The volumes have been encouraging in the recent consolidation indicating strong hands have started accumulating the stock at lower levels. In the short term time frame, analyzing the price volume action, the stock seems to be extremely poised to move higher towards the psychological mark of 800 levels. On the other side, the Bollinger band (20, 2) on the daily charts is also pointing northwards with price rolling on its mean indicating the direction of the counter is on the long side with supports on the lower side shifting higher with the lower band. Also the Parabolic SAR is also trading well below the current market price of the counter indicating northward movement is likely to continue. The stock is also trading in the cluster of major short and long term moving averages with technical indicator 14 day RSI showing reading in the comfortable zone, clearly indicating the bullish trend is likely to remain intact in the counter. On the other hand, the overall chart structure of the counter seems to be bullish from a medium term perspective till the stock price is trading above 670-700 levels on the lower side, while dips towards the recent support levels of 680 may be utilized to average the stock. Our take: Taking the above data facts into consideration, we recommend short term traders to enter the stock at the current levels for the potential targets of 790-810 levels. Any dip towards the 680 levels can be utilized to average the stock, with a strict stop loss placed below 670 levels. 11

KARVY RESEARCH DESK STOCK BROKING JK Jain Head Research QUERIES & FEEDBACK Toll-Free: 1800 419 8283 Email ID: service@karvy.com Karvy Stock Broking Limited Karvy Millenium Plot No : 31 Financial District Gachibowli Hyderabad - 500 032 Analyst Certification The following analyst(s), JK Jain, who is (are) primarily responsible for this report and whose name(s) is/ are mentioned therein, certify (ies) that the views expressed herein accurately reflect his (their) personal view(s) about the subject security (ies) and issuer(s) and that no part of his (their) compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or views contained in this research report. Disclaimer Karvy Stock Broking Limited [KSBL]is registered as a research analyst with SEBI (Registration No INH200003265 ).KSBL is also a SEBI registered Stock Broker, Depository Participant, Portfolio Manager and also distributes financial products. 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