UK ECONOMY SITUATION & PROSPECTS 26 November 2013 Hermione Gough Counsellor Europe and Global Issues British Embassy Paris UNCLASSIFIED 1
The pace of recovery picked up further in Q3, with UK GDP expanding by 0.8% Quarterly GDP growth, 2003Q3 2013Q3 Source: ONS ONS estimates suggest the UK s economic recovery has been gathering pace since the start of this year. The preliminary estimate of GDP in Q3 suggests growth is fairly broad-based: compared to the previous quarter, services activity increased 0.7%, manufacturing increased 0.9%, and construction output increased 2.5%. UNCLASSIFIED 2
UNCLASSIFIED The labour market continues to show signs of strengthening OBR forecast OBR forecast Sources: ONS; OBR forecast Sources: ONS; OBR forecast The employment rate in the three months to August was 71.7 per cent, up 0.4 percentage points compared to a year earlier. There were 29.87 million people in employment the highest level ever. The unemployment rate in the three months to August was 7.7 per cent, down 0.2 percentage points compared to a year earlier. There were 2.49 million people out of work. 3
A considerable fiscal challenge, but big progress is being made. Advanced economies fiscal balances in 2012 surplus deficit Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2013 According to the IMF, the UK is running one of the largest fiscal deficits of all advanced economies. The IMF estimates the UK had the third largest fiscal deficit in the G7 (as a percentage of GDP) in 2012. But the deficit is down by a third since 2010. Deficit reduction relies mainly on cuts in spending: 65% of 80 billion savings announced in 2010 has been already achieved. UNCLASSIFIED 4
UNCLASSIFIED By 2015, the UK is set to have the lowest corporate tax rate of all G7 economies 20 per cent Main corporation tax rates in the G7 and the G20 (2015, based on announced plans) In April 2015 we will reduce the main rate of of corporation tax by by another 1 per cent. Britain will have a 20 20 per cent rate of of corporation tax the lowest business tax of of any major economy in in the world. That s a tax cut for jobs and growth. Chancellor of of the Exchequer in in his Budget statement, 20 20 March 2013. Source: HM Treasury, Budget 2013 The UK ranks highly in terms of global competitiveness. It ranked 10 th out of 148 countries in the World Economic Forum s 2013-14 Global Competitiveness Report, dropping back to its 2011/12 position after jumping to 8 th last year. The UK scores particularly well against the report s measures of labour market efficiency (5 th globally), technological readiness (4 th ) and market size (6 th ). 5
UK industrial strategy 11 sector strategies 8 Great Technologies aerospace agricultural technologies automotive construction information economy international education life sciences nuclear offshore wind oil and gas professional and business services big data and energy-efficient computing satellites and commercial applications of space robotics and autonomous systems synthetic biology regenerative medicine agri-science advanced materials and nanotechnology energy and its storage 6
45% of UK exports go to the European Union Distribution of UK exports (goods and services), 2012 Source: ONS Pink Book, 2013 Top 20 largest export markets for the UK Export Market 2012 value in billion 1 USA 84 2 Germany 43 3 Netherlands 35 4 France 30 5 Ireland 27 6 Belgium 17 7 Switzerland 16 8 Spain 14 9 China 14 10 Italy 14 11 Australia 11 12 Japan 9.4 13 Sweden 9.0 14 Canada 8.1 15 Russia 7.6 16 Saudi Arabia 7.5 17 Hong Kong 7.5 18 Singapore 7.2 19 India 6.9 20 Norway 6.6 Source: ONS UNCLASSIFIED 7
Nearly 50% of UK direct investment is in the European Union Distribution of UK investments abroad Top 20 largest investment markets for the UK in 2011 Stock of UK direct investment abroad in 2011: 1.1 trillion Source: ONS Investment Market Share of UK investment abroad (per cent) 2011 value in billions 1 USA 19.2 210.4 2 Netherlands 13.0 142.8 3 Luxembourg 12.5 137.2 4 France 4.9 54.3 5 Ireland 4.1 44.7 6 Belgium 3.5 38.2 7 Spain 3.4 37.6 8 Australia 3.3 36.1 9 Hong Kong 3.0 33.3 10 Canada 2.5 27.5 11 Sweden 2.1 23.4 12 Germany 1.9 20.9 13 Switzerland 1.8 19.9 14 Bermuda 1.4 15.6 15 Brazil 1.3 14.3 16 India 1.2 13.7 17 Italy 1.0 11.4 18 South Africa 1.0 10.7 19 Singapore 0.8 8.7 20 Russia 0.7 7.9 Source: ONS UNCLASSIFIED 8
«A better deal for Britain, a better deal for Europe» The Prime Minister David Cameron s Bloomberg speech 23rd January 2013 Five principles of reform Competitiveness Flexibility Fairness Possibility for powers to flow back Democratic accountability 9