INDUSTRY OIL & GAS CMP (as on 24 Apr 2017) Rs 1,414 Target Price Rs 1,375 Nifty 9,218 Sensex 29,656 KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg RIL IN No. of Shares (mn) 3,251 MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 4,608/71,494 6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 17,879 STOCK PERFORMANCE (%) 52 Week high / low Rs 1,449/926 3M 6M 12M Absolute (%) 38.0 33.3 36.4 Relative (%) 29.6 28.1 21.7 SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%) Promoters 46.32 FIs & Local MFs 11.84 FIIs 22.58 Public & Others 19.26 Source : BSE Satish Mishra satish.mishra@hdfcsec.com +912261717334 Deepak Kolhe deepak.kolhe@hdfcsec.com +912261717316 Strong core vs. hazy noncore RIL s standalone numbers continued to impress led by a strong GRM ($ 11.5/bbl) and higher petchem margins. Q4 EBITDA was at Rs 113bn (+9% YoY), despite weak domestic demand for petchem (demonetisation). The benefits from a strong INR and lower tax rate boosted APAT to Rs 82bn (+13%). Strong GRM and petchem margins should continue, led by higher product demand at low crude prices. Challenging macros will have minimal impact, given RIL s efficient operations. RIL s capex of USD 18.5bn in refining and chemicals is nearing completion. The commissioning of these projects has begun, and they will be fully operational by 4QFY18. We are confident of incremental annual EBITDA of ~USD 3bn from these. RIL s standalone operations will generate FCF of more than ~Rs 350bn/year, starting FY19. There is no large capex in the pipe, neither standalone nor Jio s. Healthy cash flows will lead to an improvement in return ratios. However, we are concerned about the returns from Jio. The company has incurred a capex of Rs 1.8tn, and may further require an additional ~Rs 0.7tn by FY19E. With 72mn customers for Jio Prime signed up till Mar17, we RESULTS REVIEW 25 APR 2017 Reliance Industries NEUTRAL Our SOTP target for RIL is Rs 1,375/sh based on FY19E (6.5x EV/e for standalone refining/chemicals, Rs 41/sh from domestic E&P, 1x investments to Shale/Retail and 0.6x investments to Jio). Maintain a NEUTRAL. Highlights of the quarter Refining: The GRM stood at USD 11.5/bbl (+USD 0.7 QoQ). The sequential improvement was led by higher margins across light distillate and better crude sourcing. The premium over Singapore GRMs was USD 5.1/bbl (vs. USD 4.1 QoQ). Petchem: The domestic demand was lower in 2HFY17, owing to demonetisation. However, strong margins led to an EBIT of Rs 35bn (+27% YoY). Telecom is the key risk: RIL has invested Rs 1.8tn till Mar17 in RJio. There will be an additional capex of ~Rs 20bn in 1QFY18, after which the runrate will reduce. It is difficult to ascertain returns on these. Nearterm outlook: Progress in the core business is on track. Telecom outlook is hazy and will decide future trajectory. Any weakness below Rs 1,250 should be treated as a buying opportunity. doubt the ARPUs can sustain at breakeven levels. FINANCIAL SUMMARY (Standalone) (Rs bn) YoY(%) QoQ (%) FY16 FY17P FY18E FY19E Net Sales 671.46 499.57 34.4 618.06 8.6 2,331.58 2,420.25 2,758.39 2,877.32 EBITDA 112.80 103.41 9.1 106.04 6.4 393.47 432.56 516.45 576.53 PAT 81.51 72.27 12.8 80.22 1.6 273.84 314.25 362.62 410.60 Diluted EPS (Rs) 25.2 22.3 12.8 24.8 1.6 84.2 96.7 111.5 126.3 P/E (x) 16.8 14.6 12.7 11.2 EV / EBITDA (x) 13.1 11.4 8.8 7.3 RoE (%) 11.6 11.6 11.9 12.2 Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB <GO>& Thomson Reuters
RELIANCE INDUSTRIES : RESULTS REVIEW E&P business KGD6 KGD6 gas volumes declined further to 7.4 mmscmd ( 24% YoY). Oil volumes were at 0.28 mmbbl (33%). Gas price was at USD 2.8/mmbtu (35% YoY) and oil realisation was at USD 51.0/bbl (+35% YoY). The Side Track campaign in MA has been completed. MA4H and MA2 successfully put on production. PM Gas volume was at 14.8 BCF (18% YoY). Lower output was due to shutdown of wells due to integrity issues. Management has guided that production in the PM field is sustainable. CBM Phase1 development completed. Commenced commercial production in Mar17. Volumes should ramp up to ~2 mmscmd in 18 months. Blocks connected to the Indian Gas Grid via SHPPL / HVJ. GoI notified Marketing & Pricing Freedom Process of price discovery initiated. Shale Gas Gas realisation went up to USD 3.3/mmbtu (+59% YoY, +11% QoQ). Average realisation for 4Q increased by 16% QoQ, whereas volumes were at 39 BCFe (6%). Production (BCFe) 44.5 41.4 41.4 39.1 Avg Realisation (US$/mcfe) 2.5 2.6 2.9 3.3 Gas price (US$/mmbtu) 2.0 2.9 3.0 3.3 Revenues ($ mn) 93 89 92 112 EBITDA ($ mn) 40 23 30 40 Refining business The throughput was at 17.5 mnt (2% YoY, 114% utilisation). GRM was at USD 11.5/bbl (+0.7 QoQ). This was led by higher margins in light distillate and better crude sourcing. The premium over Singapore GRM remained strong at USD 5.1/bbl vs 4.1 QoQ. The Singapore mix has a high share of fuel oil, where margins have reduced sharply. The spread for light distillate increased sharply QoQ (gasoline from 14.6 to 14.8 and naphtha from 0.3 to 1.1.) Losses in fuel oil increased from USD 2.7/bbl to 4.3. Gas oil spread was strong at USD 11.8 vs. USD 12.1. The ROGC project will be commissioned in 2QFY18, and the petcoke gasification project in 3QFY18. The complete benefits of these projects will be visible in FY19. RIL maintains its guidance of an additional GRM of USD 22.5/bbl by replacing LNG with coke. Petchem and fibres Polymer: The spreads for PP, PE and PVC were above the fiveyear average, led by a strong demand at lower prices. The domestic demand for polymers was weak in 2HFY17, owing to the negative impact of demonetisation. Polyester: A pickup in demand improved margins. However, they remain below the fiveyear average. Retail It has achieved a critical mass, with FY17 revenues at Rs 280bn (excluding petro revenues). The segment is PAT positive, and gaining from operating leverage. The total investment in this business is ~USD 2bn. EBIDTA was at Rs 3.7bn (+66% YoY). RIL added 63 stores in 4Q, taking the total to 3,616. Page 2
RELIANCE INDUSTRIES : RESULTS REVIEW EBITDA growth was led by higher margins in petchem Interest costs were lower owing to a forex gain of Rs 2bn Tax rate is lower owing to benefits from projects Quarterly Financials Snapshot (Standalone) (Rs bn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Revenues 671.46 499.57 34.4 618.06 8.6 Material Expenses 464.80 311.10 49.4 420.65 10.5 Employee Expenses 12.18 10.13 20.2 9.49 28.3 Other Operating Expenses 81.68 74.93 9.0 81.88 (0.2) EBIDTA 112.80 103.41 9.1 106.04 6.4 Depreciation 24.09 23.27 3.5 20.77 16.0 EBIT 88.71 80.14 10.7 85.27 4.0 Other Income 13.71 21.41 (36.0) 30.25 (54.7) Interest Cost 2.35 5.86 (59.9) 9.31 (74.8) PBT 100.07 95.69 4.6 106.21 (5.8) Tax 18.56 23.42 (20.8) 25.99 (28.6) RPAT 81.51 72.27 12.8 80.22 1.6 EO (Loss) / Profit (Net Of Tax) APAT 81.51 72.27 12.8 80.22 1.6 EPS 25.2 22.3 12.8 24.8 1.6 Margin Analysis YoY (bps) QoQ (bps) Material Expenses As % of Net Sales 69.2 62.3 695 68.1 116 Employee Expenses As % of Net Sales 1.8 2.0 (21) 1.5 28 Other Expenses As % of Net Sales 12.2 15.0 (283) 13.2 (108) EBITDA Margin (%) 16.8 20.7 (390) 17.2 (36) Net Profit Margin (%) 12.1 14.5 (233) 13.0 (84) Tax Rate (%) 18.5 24.5 (593) 24.5 (592) Page 3
RELIANCE INDUSTRIES : RESULTS REVIEW Refineries Performance RIL s GRM trend vs. Singapore Complex GRM Crude Throughput (mnt) GRM improved QoQ led by (1) An improvement in gasoline margins, (2) Narrowing of discount between ALAH and (3) Higher sales in the domestic market. Premium over Singapore GRM remains high 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 $/bbl RIL GRM Singapore GRM 5.8 8.7 4.8 8.3 7.3 6.3 10.1 8.5 8.0 10.4 6.3 10.6 8.0 11.5 7.7 10.8 5.0 11.5 5.1 10.1 6.7 10.8 6.4 11.5 18.5 18.0 17.5 17.0 16.5 16.0 15.5 15.0 mnt 16.7 17.3 17.7 16.2 16.6 17.1 18.0 17.8 16.8 18.0 17.8 17.5 Polymers Performance Polymers Production Polymer Margins (Indicative Industry Spreads) PP and PVC volumes were lower due to a maintenance shutdown PE, PP and PVC margins are above the fiveyear average 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 kt PE PP PVC 1,000 800 600 400 200 PP Propylene PVC Naphtha EDC US$/t HDPE Naphtha Page 4
RELIANCE INDUSTRIES : RESULTS REVIEW Polyesters Performance Intermediates Production Volumes Intermediates Margins (Indicative Industry Spreads) PTA s expanded capacity was commissioned in FY16 MEG production was lower in due to a maintenance shutdown 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 kt PX PTA MEG 600 500 400 300 200 100 PXNaptha PTA PX MEG Naptha US$/t Polyester Production Volumes Polyester Margins (Indicative Industry Spreads) PET s expanded capacity was commissioned in FY16 PET production was lower in due to a maintenance shutdown 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 kt POY PSF PET 600 500 400 300 200 100 POYPTAMEG PETPTAMEG US$/t PSFPTAMEG Page 5
RELIANCE INDUSTRIES : RESULTS REVIEW US Shale Performance Production Volumes And Gas Realisation Key Financials Trend Gas realisations went up sharply to USD 3.3/mmbtu 5.0 Production (RS) US$/mmbtu Gas price (US$/mmbtu) BCFe 60.0 300 Revenues EBITDA EBITDA Margin (%) US$ mn 90% 4.0 50.0 250 75% The company is focussing on reducing capex and opex 3.0 2.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 200 150 100 60% 45% 30% 1.0 10.0 50 15% 0% Domestic E&P Performance PMT: Production Volumes And Gas Realisation KG: Production Volumes And Gas Realisation PMT Gas Vol (BCM) PM Gas Price ($/mmbtu) KG Gas Volume (BCM) KG Gas Price ($/mmbtu) The domestic gas price for KGD6 is reduced to USD 2.8/mmbtu for 2HFY17 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 T Gas Price ($/mmbtu) BCM $/mmbtu 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 BCM $/mmbtu 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 5.5 Page 6
RELIANCE INDUSTRIES : RESULTS REVIEW Retail Performance Key Financials Trend Store Additions And Performance Per Store Retail revenues in include ~Rs 25bn of auto fuel sales. Revenues are also boosted by sales of the LYF mobile and MIFI device (driven by free welcome offer) 120.0 105.0 90.0 75.0 60.0 45.0 30.0 15.0 Revenues nonpetro EBITDA Margin (%) Rs bn Revenues Petro 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 No of stores Revenues nonpetro/store (Rs mn) Rs mn 25 20 15 10 5 Page 7
RELIANCE INDUSTRIES : RESULTS REVIEW Petrochemical s growth in profitability was led by higher margins GRM was strong at USD 11.5/bbl. YoY decline in EBIT was owing to higher opex cost due to maintenance The change in estimates factors a lower depreciation and tax rate Quarterly Segmental Snapshot (Standalone) (Rs mn) YoY(%) QoQ (%) Segmental Revenues Petrochemicals 252.31 195.48 29.1 216.90 16.3 Refining 638.63 403.29 58.4 532.15 20.0 E & P 6.80 9.01 (24.5) 6.23 9.1 Gross Revenues 901.20 611.38 47.4 758.17 18.9 EBIT Petrochemicals 34.54 27.20 27.0 33.59 2.8 Refining 62.62 63.62 (1.6) 61.27 2.2 E & P (0.78) (2.42) (67.8) (1.25) (37.6) Total 97.57 89.28 9.3 94.75 3.0 EBIT Margins (%) Petrochemicals 13.7 13.9 (22) 15.5 (180) Refining 9.8 15.8 (597) 11.5 (171) E & P (11.5) (26.9) 1,539 (20.1) 859 Change In Estimates (Rs bn) FY18E Old FY18E New % ch FY19E Old FY19E New % ch Revenue 2,761.07 2,758.39 (0.1) 2,891.67 2,877.32 (0.5) EBITDA 507.52 516.45 1.8 568.75 576.53 1.4 PAT 334.29 362.62 8.5 381.32 410.60 7.7 EPS (Rs/sh) 103.2 111.5 8.5 117.7 126.3 7.7 Peer Valuation MCap CMP TP EPS (Rs/sh) P/E (x) P/BV (x) ROE (%) Rating* (Rs bn) (Rs/sh) (Rs/sh)* FY17E FY18E FY19E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY17E FY18E FY19E Reliance Industries 4,608 1,414 NEU 1,375 96.7 111.5 126.3 14.6 12.7 11.2 1.6 1.4 1.3 11.6 11.9 12.2 ONGC 2,329 182 BUY 228 14.2 15.3 16.8 12.8 11.9 10.8 1.5 1.4 1.3 11.7 12.0 12.4 Indian Oil Corp 2,049 422 BUY 425 39.5 41.1 40.3 10.7 10.3 10.5 2.5 2.1 1.9 24.4 22.3 19.3 BPCL 1,034 715 NEU 730 52.1 54.1 60.7 13.7 13.2 11.8 3.4 3.0 2.6 26.1 24.1 23.8 Gail India 698 413 BUY 450 22.2 29.3 31.1 18.6 14.1 13.3 2.1 1.9 1.8 11.8 14.4 14.0 HPCL 566 557 BUY 650 54.5 53.9 51.9 10.2 10.3 10.7 2.8 2.5 2.3 28.8 25.8 22.5 Petronet LNG 325 434 BUY 485 20.8 25.3 30.3 20.8 17.1 14.3 4.4 3.7 3.1 22.6 23.3 23.6 OIL India 259 324 BUY 370 26.0 25.8 25.8 12.4 12.5 12.5 1.1 1.1 1.0 9.2 8.8 8.5 Indraprastha Gas 148 1,058 BUY 1,227 40.9 45.1 50.7 25.9 23.5 20.9 5.2 4.4 3.8 21.7 20.4 19.7, *As per previous published report Page 8
RELIANCE INDUSTRIES : RESULTS REVIEW Full benefits from petcoke gasification will accrue to refining operations in FY19E KG volumes will remain muted, and so will prices Chemical s additional capacity will come in phases in FY18E Assumptions FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17P FY18E FY19E Crude price (USD/bbl) 107.1 107.0 85.4 47.0 50.0 55.0 55.0 INRUSD 54.4 60.5 61.2 65.8 66.0 66.0 66.0 Refining Business GRM (USD/bbl) 9.2 8.1 8.6 10.8 11.0 11.1 12.0 Crude Throughput (mmt) 68.5 68.0 67.9 69.6 70.1 70.1 70.1 Upstream Business PMT Gas (BCF) 115 93 85 81 78 76 74 Oil (mmbbl) 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 PM Gas Price (USD/mmbtu) 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 Tapti Gas Price (USD/mmbtu) 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 KG Gas (mmscmd) 26 14 12 10 9 9 12 Gas Price (USD/mmbtu) 4.2 4.2 5.2 4.7 3.1 3.5 4.0 Petrochemicals Sales Volume (mmt) 8.9 9.0 9.1 10.2 10.7 12.6 13.8 SOTP Valuation (Based On FY19E) Business EBITDA Value Value* Multiple (Rs bn) (Rs bn) (Rs/sh) Valuation Basis Petrochemicals 252 6.5 1,638 553 EV/EBITDA on FY19E Refining 273 6.5 1,775 599 EV/EBITDA on FY19E E & P PMT 13 4.0 53 18 EV/EBIDTA on FY19E KG D6 Gas 11 4 NPV NEC 50 17 NPV CBM 7 2 NPV Investment (US$ bn) Shale Gas 6.1 1.0 403 136 x Inv as on Mar17 Retail 2.0 1.0 130 44 x Inv as on Mar17 Telecom (RJio) 27.1 0.6 1,074 363 x Inv as on Mar17 Consolidated Net Debt 1.0 (1,070) (361) x as on Mar18 Value per share 4,070 1,375, * Valuation is based on 2.96bn shares (net of treasury shares) Page 9
RELIANCE INDUSTRIES : RESULTS REVIEW Standalone Income Statement (Rs bn) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E Revenues 3,290.76 2,331.58 2,420.25 2,758.39 2,877.32 Growth % (15.6) (29.1) 3.8 14.0 4.3 Raw Material 2,650.75 1,611.81 1,645.72 1,858.33 1,900.62 Employee Cost 36.86 42.62 44.34 46.13 47.99 Other Expenses 287.13 283.68 297.63 337.48 352.17 EBITDA 316.02 393.47 432.56 516.45 576.53 EBIDTA Margin (%) 9.6 16.9 17.9 18.7 20.0 EBITDA Growth % 2.3 24.5 9.9 19.4 11.6 Depreciation 84.88 85.90 84.65 117.61 131.44 EBIT 231.14 307.57 347.91 398.84 445.09 Other Income (Including EO Items) 87.21 78.21 87.09 94.74 104.77 Interest 23.67 25.62 27.23 25.68 20.06 PBT 294.68 360.16 407.77 467.90 529.81 Tax 67.49 86.32 93.52 105.28 119.21 RPAT 227.19 273.84 314.25 362.62 410.60 EO (Loss) / Profit (Net Of Tax) APAT 227.19 273.84 314.25 362.62 410.60 APAT Growth (%) 3.3 20.5 14.8 15.4 13.2 AEPS 69.9 84.2 96.7 111.5 126.3 AEPS Growth % 3.3 20.5 14.8 15.4 13.2 Standalone Balance Sheet (Rs bn) FY15 FY16 FY17P FY18E FY19E SOURCES OF FUNDS Share Capital 32.36 32.40 32.51 32.51 32.51 Reserves And Surplus 2,129.40 2,507.58 2,850.62 3,158.51 3,507.14 Total Equity 2,161.76 2,539.98 2,883.13 3,191.02 3,539.65 Longterm Debt 762.27 778.30 787.23 587.23 387.23 Shortterm Debt 213.93 292.64 373.54 373.54 373.54 Total Debt 976.20 1,070.94 1,160.77 960.77 760.77 Deferred Tax Liability 126.77 237.47 247.66 247.66 247.66 Longterm Provision 14.04 10.66 21.18 21.18 21.18 TOTAL SOURCES OF FUNDS 3,278.77 3,859.05 4,312.74 4,420.63 4,569.26 APPLICATION OF FUNDS Net Block 1,145.63 1,475.43 1,531.30 1,895.69 1,911.25 Capital WIP 824.70 1,177.02 1,394.28 1,044.28 1,029.28 LT Loans And Advances 225.42 87.57 73.63 73.63 73.63 Total Noncurrent Investments 620.58 1,126.30 1,126.30 1,126.30 1,126.30 Inventories 365.51 280.34 340.18 340.08 354.74 Debtors 46.61 34.95 54.72 62.37 65.05 Cash and Cash Equivalent 620.86 515.12 815.74 996.93 1,161.14 Other Current Assets 128.54 120.01 131.31 131.31 131.31 Total Current Assets 1,161.52 950.42 1,341.95 1,530.68 1,712.24 Creditors 544.70 545.21 681.61 776.84 810.33 Other Current Liabilities & Provns 154.38 412.48 473.11 473.11 473.11 Total Current Liabilities 699.08 957.69 1,154.72 1,249.95 1,283.44 Net Current Assets 462.44 (7.27) 187.23 280.73 428.80 TOTAL APPLICATION OF FUNDS 3,278.77 3,859.05 4,312.74 4,420.63 4,569.26 Page 10
RELIANCE INDUSTRIES : RESULTS REVIEW Standalone Cash Flow (Rs bn) FY15 FY16 FY17P FY18E FY19E Reported PBT 294.68 357.01 407.77 467.90 529.81 Nonoperating & EO Items (72.71) (102.99) (87.09) (94.74) (104.77) Interest Expenses 23.67 24.54 27.23 25.68 20.06 Depreciation 84.88 95.66 84.65 117.61 131.44 Working Capital Change 83.15 147.89 126.83 87.69 16.14 Tax Paid (60.82) (81.29) (93.52) (105.28) (119.21) OPERATING CASH FLOW ( a ) 352.85 440.82 465.87 498.86 473.47 Capex (427.20) (213.22) (357.78) (132.00) (132.00) Free Cash Flow (FCF) (74.35) 227.60 108.09 366.86 341.47 Investments (93.66) (505.72) Nonoperating Income 87.21 78.21 87.09 94.74 104.77 Others 16.00 64.00 INVESTING CASH FLOW ( b ) (417.65) (576.73) (270.69) (37.26) (27.23) Debt Issuance/(Repaid) 54.70 48.12 89.83 (200.00) (200.00) Interest Expenses (23.67) (24.54) (27.23) (25.68) (20.06) FCFE (43.32) 251.18 170.69 141.18 121.41 Share Capital Issuance 2.26 2.83 Dividend (32.68) (72.59) (41.84) (54.73) (61.97) FINANCING CASH FLOW ( c ) 0.61 (46.18) 20.76 (280.41) (282.03) NET CASH FLOW (a+b+c) (64.19) (182.09) 215.94 181.19 164.21 EO Items, Others (14.50) 24.78 Closing Cash & Equivalents 620.86 515.12 815.74 996.93 1,161.14 Standalone Key Ratios FY15 FY16 FY17P FY18E FY19E PROFITABILITY % EBITDA Margin 9.6 16.9 17.9 18.7 20.0 EBIT Margin 7.0 13.2 14.4 14.5 15.5 APAT Margin 6.9 11.7 13.0 13.1 14.3 RoE 11.0 11.6 11.6 11.9 12.2 Core RoCE 13.2 19.5 26.3 28.7 28.4 RoCE 8.0 8.5 8.5 9.1 9.8 EFFICIENCY Tax Rate % 22.9 24.0 22.9 22.5 22.5 Fixed Asset Turnover (x) 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 Inventory (days) 41 44 51 45 45 Debtor (days) 5 5 8 8 8 Other Current Assets (days) 14 19 20 17 17 Payables (days) 60 85 103 103 103 Other Current Liab & Provns (days) 17 65 71 63 60 Cash Conversion Cycle (days) (18) (82) (95) (95) (93) Net Debt/EBITDA (x) 1.1 1.4 0.8 (0.1) (0.7) Net D/E 0.2 0.2 0.1 (0.0) (0.1) Interest Coverage 13.4 15.1 16.0 19.2 27.4 PER SHARE DATA (Rs) EPS 69.9 84.2 96.7 111.5 126.3 CEPS 96.0 110.7 122.7 147.7 166.7 Dividend 9.5 10.5 11.0 14.4 16.3 Book Value 665.0 781.3 886.8 981.6 1,088.8 VALUATION P/E (x) 20.2 16.8 14.6 12.7 11.2 P/Cash EPS (x) 14.7 12.8 11.5 9.6 8.5 P/BV (x) 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.3 EV/EBITDA (x) 15.7 13.1 11.4 8.8 7.3 EV/Revenue (x) 1.5 2.2 2.0 1.7 1.5 Dividend Yield (%) 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.2 CFO/EV (%) 7.1 8.6 9.4 10.9 11.3 FCFF/EV (%) (1.5) 4.4 2.2 8.0 8.1 FCFE/M Cap (%) (0.9) 5.5 3.7 3.1 2.6 Page 11
RELIANCE INDUSTRIES : RESULTS REVIEW RECOMMENDATION HISTORY Reliance Inds 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 TP Date CMP Reco Target 25Apr16 1,039 BUY 1,155 18Jul16 1,012 BUY 1,155 21Oct16 1,088 BUY 1,225 17Jan17 1,076 BUY 1,225 13Apr17 1,354 NEU 1,225 25Apr17 1,414 NEU 1,375 1,000 900 800 Apr16 May16 Jun16 Jul16 Aug16 Sep16 Oct16 Nov16 Dec16 Jan17 Feb17 Mar17 Apr17 Rating Definitions BUY : Where the stock is expected to deliver more than 10% returns over the next 12 month period NEUTRAL : Where the stock is expected to deliver ()10% to 10% returns over the next 12 month period SELL : Where the stock is expected to deliver less than ()10% returns over the next 12 month period Page 12
RELIANCE INDUSTRIES : RESULTS REVIEW Disclosure: We, Satish Mishra, PGDM, & Deepak Kolhe, MBA, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Research Analyst or his/her relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its Associate may have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report. Further Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its associate does not have any material conflict of interest. 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HDFC Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of managing or comanaging public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction in the normal course of business. HDFC Securities or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither HDFC Securities nor Research Analysts have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions. HDFC Securities may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report. Research entity has not been engaged in market making activity for the subject company. Research analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company. We have not received any compensation/benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the Research Report.HDFC Securities Ltd. is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000002475 HDFC securities Institutional Equities Unit No. 1602, 16th Floor, Tower A, Peninsula Business Park, Senapati Bapat Marg, Lower Parel,Mumbai 400 013 Board : +91226171 7330www.hdfcsec.com Page 13