Currencies Daily Report Powered by Karvy Forex & Currencies Pvt. Ltd. www.karvyforex.com Monday 07 Aug 2017 Market Overview Asian stocks advanced early today, taking cues from Wall Street's strong end to the previous week, while the dollar finally witnessed a pullback after stronger-than-expected jobs growth in July. The key data point raised prospects of another interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve this year. The rupee is expected to open lower against the US dollar as the greenback rose globally following the release of robust employment data in the US for July. The Indian unit is expected to open at 63.68-63.72 a dollar as against 63.58 at close Friday. The currency pair is seen moving in the range of 63.50-63.85 a dollar through the day. Premiums on dollar/rupee forwards may rise as banks are expected to purchase dollars for forward delivery noting the attractive levels, according to some FX dealers. However, some dollar sales for forward delivery by exporters may arrest the premiums in a narrow range, dealers said. On an annualised basis, premium on the one-year exact-period contract was at 4.38% on Friday, compared with 4.41% at the previous close On Friday, premium on the one-year month-end contract was at 273.00 paise, against 275.00 paise on Thursday. Today, the premium may open at around 274.00-276.00 paise and is seen moving in the range of 272.00-278.00 paise through the day. Britain is prepared to pay up to 40 billion euros ($47 billion) as part of a deal to leave the European Union, the Sunday Telegraph newspaper reported, citing three unnamed sources familiar with Britain's negotiating strategy. The European Union has floated a figure of 60 billion euros and wants significant progress on settling Britain's liabilities before talks can start on complex issues such as future trading arrangements. The government department responsible for Brexit talks declined to comment on the Sunday Telegraph article. So far, Britain has given no official indication of how much it would be willing to pay. The newspaper said British officials were likely to offer to pay 10 billion euros a year for three years after leaving the EU in March 2019, then finalise the total alongside detailed trade talks. Payments would only be made as part of a deal that included a trade agreement, the newspaper added. Indices Last Close Previous Close % CHANGE NASDAQ 6351.56 6340.34 0.18 DOW JONES 22092.81 22026.10 0.30 NIKKEI 19952.33 22029.26-9.43 HANGSENG 27535.00 27499.00 0.13 Currencies Today Morning Yesterday at 05:00 PM % CHANGE DXY 93.32 92.78 0.58 EURUSD 1.1797 1.1877-0.67 GBPUSD 1.3055 1.3145-0.68 USDJPY 110.71 110.10 0.55 Today Morning Yesterday at 05:00 PM % CHANGE USDINR Spot 63.6700 63.5800 0.14 IRF 102.16 102.19-0.03
USDINR Intraday Outlook US dollar index is trading at 93.36 after being bottomed at 92.70 in Friday s session. The boost came in from the Nonfarm Payrolls report, which was reported better than expectations. Despite a weaker ADP as well as ISM employment report we have seen the Nonfarm payroll s being reported better than expectations. The Nonfarm employment report printed that, 209K jobs were created in the July against an expectations of 183K jobs. The same was reported at 231K jobs in the previous month. Whereas the Unemployment rate fell to 4.3% down by tick when compared to the previous month, meeting the forecast. Coming Private Nonfarm Payrolls in July it was reported at 205k against an expectations of 178k jobs, whereas it was reported at 194k previously. With all the economic reports being stronger than anticipation we have seen a relief rally in US dollar against major currencies. Now, the investors will still await for more data to be stronger, so that they can be confident about fed raising the interest another time this year. Looking ahead we have no major economic reports to be published in today s session but the focus would be on comments from FOMC members Bullard and Kashkari who scheduled to speak in later part of the day. This is the daily chart of USDINR, the pair has traded in the broader range of 63.57 on the downside and 63.78 on the higher side for past day, the pair had a side wise day after having a bearish long candle on the RBI meeting, now today likely to open near 63.70, the pair had violated the supports of 64 levels few days back now previous support likely to act as a resistance and will see some supply coming at higher levels. Sideways Sell USDINR Fut 63.94-63.98 SL 64.05 TGT 63.80 63.55-63.95 S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 (Futures) 63.51 63.57 63.61 63.80 63.94 R2 63.98 R3 64.04 Importers Strategy August Exports to be partially booked targetting 64.35/40 Spot August Imports partially booked at 64.10/15 & 63.83/84 Spot
EURINR Intraday Outlook EURO is trading at 1.1797, falling from the levels of 1.1893. The key reason for last day sell-off was because of stronger US dollar against majors. US NFP data was reported stronger than expectations despite a weaker ADP and ISM employment reports in the previous week. The data has showed that the US labor markets have strengthen compared to the figures previously reported. Even the US unemployment was reported better than expectations. All these better than anticipated data s from US has kept the demand for US dollar higher and the same has been weighted on the euro. Now looking ahead, in terms of economic data we have German Industrial Production for June to be reported later today and the expectations are set at 0.2%, the same has been reported at 1.2% previously. Even any hawkishness from ECB would be helping EUR to retest the levels of 1.19 mark. This is the daily chart of EURUSD pair during the day the pair traded in a broader range of 1.1727 on the lower side and 1.1890 on the higher side, the pair last trading day had taken the reisistance at higher levels and after the non farm payroll data the pair reversed and went below the supports of 1.18 stil the pair is trading above the short term moving average and on a medium to long term remains a buy on dips currency intraday likey to be volatile in 1.1740-1.1830. Sideways Buy EURUSD 1.1740-1.1775 TGT 1.1830 SL 1.1725 BUY EURINR FUT 75.30-75.20 TGT 75.68 SL 75.08 74.90-75.40 S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3 (Futures) 75.33 75.46 75.54 75.80 75.99 76.07 76.20 August Exports partially booked at 75.40 Spot Importers Strategy August imports to be partially booked targetting 74.85/90
GBPINR Intraday Outlook Pound is trading at 1.3055. The sterling continued falling since the BoE surprised the markets by voting a 6-2 to keep the interest rates unchanged on Thursday last week. Markets expected that there would be a voting of 5-3 for hiking the interest rates for first in a decade by 25 basis points. But the Central Banks, surprisingly kept the rates unchanged and more over it has cut down the GDP as well as wage growth projections. This has kept the investors to be concerned about the future of UK economy. Even the BoE has hinted that, it would start hiking the interest rates from Q3 of 2018, which is way distant from the markets expectations. This disappoint from British Central Banker has overlapped the PMI reports which were reported better than expectations. Now most of the traders doubt if 1.3266 is to be toppedin GBP against US dollar. Even the stronger US dollar following better than expected NFP has kept the Pound to trade weighed. Looking ahead there are no major economic reports scheduled to be released from UK s economy in today s session. As of today the focus would be on US dollar movement will can impact the GBP-USD currency pair. This is the daily chart of GBPUSD, the pair traded in a broader range of 1.3024 on the lower side and 1.3164on the higher side the pair had a strong move on BOE interest rate meeting and last day after the NFP the pair continued its trend on the downside major levels to watch 1.2980 if not sustain and with MACD indicator remaining negative likely to see some supply at higher levels. Bearish SELL GBPUSD 1.3080-1.31 TGT 1.3020 SL 1.3125 SELL GBPINR 83.52-83.60 TGT 83.17 SL 83.73 83.00-83.70 S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3 (Futures) 83.32 83.51 83.62 84.00 84.19 84.30 84.49 Importers Strategy August Exports partially booked targetting 84.40/50 Spot August imports to be partially booked targetting 84 Spot
JPYINR Intraday Outlook USD-JPY is trading at 110.68. USD-JPY pair was the most active pair which reacted to US NFP data. The boost came in from the Nonfarm Payrolls report, which was reported better than expectations. Despite a weaker ADP as well as ISM employment report we have seen the Nonfarm payroll s being reported better than expectations. The Nonfarm employment report printed that, 209K jobs were created in the July against an expectations of 183K jobs. The same was reported at 231K jobs in the previous month. Whereas the Unemployment rate fell to 4.3% down by tick when compared to the previous month, meeting the forecast. Coming Private Nonfarm Payrolls in July it was reported at 205k against an expectations of 178k jobs, whereas it was reported at 194k previously. With all the economic reports being stronger than anticipation we have seen a relief rally in US dollar against major currencies. Now, the investors will still await for more data to be stronger, so that they can be confident about fed raising the interest another time this year. Looking ahead we have no major economic reports to be published in today s session but the focus would be on comments from FOMC members Bullard and Kashkari who scheduled to speak in later part of the day. This is the daily chart of USDJPY pair, during the day the pair traded in a broader range of 109.80 on the lower side and 111.05 on the higher side, the pair a strong bounce from the lower levels after the non farm data and now trading near 110.50 the pair is having a strong support near 109,8 and higher side 111.50 likely to act a resistance where 200DMA lies today likely to see some support at lower levels. Bearish BUY USDJPY 110.20-110.00 TGT 111.20 SL 109.75 SELL JPYINR FUT 57.80-57.90 TGT 57.42 SL 58.02 57.30-58.00 S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3 (Futures) 57.69 57.79 57.85 58.00 58.21 58.27 58.37 August Exports to be held open for now Importers Strategy August imports to be partially booked targetting 57.50
Time Currency Data Forecast Previous 10:30 AM JPY 106.2% 104.6% 11:30 AM EUR 0.2% 1.2% 1:00 PM GBP 0.3% -1.0% 10:55 PM USD Economic Data for the Day Leading Indicators German Industrial Production m/m Halifax HPI m/m FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks Report prepared by: Siddhesh Ghare siddhesh.ghare@karvy.com Deepak Agarwal deepak.agarwal@karvy.com 040-33216636 Shashank Damaraju shashank.damaraju@karvy.com 040-33216635 Head Office Karvy Millennium,Plot No 31, Financial District, Gachibowli, Hyderabad - 500 031. T: +91-40-33216636 / 6635 Corporate Office 131, Andheri Industrial Estate, Off Veera Desai Road, Andheri (W), Mumbai-400053. T: +91-22-26399040, Mob No. 9987466794 Disclaimer: The information and analysis contained in this document come from sources believed to be reliable and our own internal research; however, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of this information. Nothing contained in this publication shall constitute an offer to sell/purchase or an invitation/ solicitation to do so for any currency, security, commodity or equity. Karvy Forex & Currencies Pvt. Ltd. accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss, howsoever arising, from any use of this document, its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith.no part of this document can be circulated or reproduced in any form without prior approval of Karvy Forex & Currencies Pvt. Ltd.