June 26, 2018 Daily Currency outlook PRODUCT 1 Other Product offerings Recommendation in the report Currency pair Contract Action Price Target Stoploss Duration US$INR June futures Sell 68.23 67.97 68.38 1-2 days Click here... Monthly Currency and Thematic reports Currency Action - - PRODUCT 2 Research Analysts Amit Gupta amit.gup@icicisecurities.com Gaurav Shah Gaurav.shah@icicisecurities.com
CURRENCY OUTLOOK Forex and global equities Spot Currency Currency Close Pvs. Close % Change US$INR 68.13 67.83 0.44 Dollar index 94.29 94.52-0.24 EUR-US$ 1.1704 1.1651 0.45 GBP-US$ 1.3281 1.3261 0.15 US$-JPY 109.77 109.97-0.18 AUD-US$ 0.7414 0.7440-0.35 US$-CHF 0.9873 0.9881-0.08 The rupee ended with sharp losses of almost 0.44% amid lingering global trade concerns as well as emerging risks of lower than anticipated increase in oil supply The US$ continued its weakness even as GBP and Euro gained while reports that US restrictions on foreign investments will not be as sweeping as anticipated supported majors. US$ is expected to remain in consolidation mode ahead of US June employment data even as investors demand more details over further trade actions Global Equity Indices Indices Close Pvs. Close % Change Dow Jones 24253 24581-1.33 Nasdaq 7038 7198-2.21 FTSE 7510 7682-2.24 DAX 12270 12580-2.46 HangSang 28631 28961-1.14 Nikkei 22216 22338-0.54 SGX Nifty 10703 10756-0.49 Equity benchmarks settled lower in a choppy session of trade on Monday amid mixed global cues. The Nifty ended at 10762, down 59 points or 0.6% Broader markets behaved in tandem with benchmarks as the Nifty midcap and small caps lost 0.5 & 0.6%,respectively. The market breadth remained in favour of declines with AD ratio of 1:2.6 *Asian equity indices at 8.00 am Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research
Debt and FII activity ICICI Securities Retail Equity Research Benchmark yield Close Pvs. Close % Change India 10-yr 7.82 7.82 0.05 US 10-yr 2.88 2.89-0.50 Eur 10-yr 0.33 0.34-2.97 UK 10-yr 1.29 1.32-1.90 JPY 10-yr 0.04 0.04 0.00 Sovereign bonds were almost unchanged as investors continue to track steady crude oil prices as well as a recent cool-off in global yields US 10-year yields fell mildly to 2.88% as trade war worries between the US and China remain in focus. Investors await US June employment details in the backdrop of a hawkish Federal Reserve Commodities Close Pvs. Close % Change Gold 1266 1271-0.39 Copper 298.7 302.7-1.32 Brent 74.7 75.6-1.09 Gold fell mildly even as it continues to remain in a trading range. Strength in US$ as well as some major central banks turning hawkish has led to profit booking in gold long Crude oil prices witnessed profit booking ahead of US weekly oil inventory data. Expectations show a drawdown of 1.78 mb against previous week s 5.91 mb drawdown FII Activity Segment Purchase Sell Net crores Equity 7531 6290 1241 Debt 445 669-224 Foreign institutional investors (FII) were net buyers to the tune of 1016 crore on June 22, 2018 FIIs have been net sellers to the tune of almost 13117 crore in June 2018 Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research, cdsl
INR futures and Outlook ICICI Securities Retail Equity Research Currency futures on NSE chng (%) Contracts LTP chng (%) OI Vol OI Vol June 68.13 0.44 2520118 1539449-0.18-14.26 July 68.39 0.43 1196171 829420 10.48 72.69 June-July -0.25 - - 710029-46.12 July-August -0.24 - - 806362-97.22 Near-month dollar-rupee June contract on the NSE was at 68.13 in the previous session. June contract open interest declined 0.18% in the previous day c We expect the US$INR to meet supply pressure at higher levels. Utilise upsides in the pair to initiate short positions Pivot levels Futures Pivot S1 S2 R1 R2 US$INR (June) 68.09 68.29 67.86 68.23 68.33 US$INR (July) 68.34 68.53 68.12 68.48 68.57 EURINR (June) 79.39 79.84 78.80 79.75 79.98 EURINR (July) 79.78 80.28 79.10 80.22 80.47 GBPINR (June) 90.29 90.51 89.99 90.47 90.59 GBPINR (July) 90.71 90.94 90.41 90.90 91.01 JPYINR (June) 62.10 62.50 61.63 62.37 62.57 JPYINR (July) 62.29 62.95 61.45 62.81 63.14 US$INR Strategy US$INR June futures contract (NSE) Sell US$INR in the range of 68.20-68.26 Market Lot: US$1000 Target: 68.0 / 67.94 Stop Loss: 68.38 Support Resistance S1/ S2: 68.0 / 67.90 R1/R2:68.25 /68.35 *Recommendation initiation message shall be broadcasted on iclick2gain at relevant prices Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research
US$INR Spot currency US$INR Spot Strategy Update Date Currency pair Strategy Rec. Target SL (P/L)* Comment 25-Jun-18 US$INR Sell future 68.08 67.92 68.18-100 Exit in loss Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research
Open Recommendations ICICI Securities Retail Equity Research Date Currency Product Strategy Recommendation price Target Stoploss Time frame - - - - - - - - Back... Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research
Pankaj Pandey Head Research pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com ICICI Direct Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No 7, MIDC, Andheri (East) Mumbai 400 093 research@icicidirect.com
DISCLAIMER Disclaimer: The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities Limited. The author may be holding a small number of shares/position in the above-referred companies as on date of release of this report. ICICI Securities Services Ltd (I-Sec) may be holding a small number of shares/ an open position in the above referred companies as on the date of release of this report." This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and may not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgement by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. ICICI Securities Ltd and affiliates accept no liabilities for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. ICICI Securities Ltd may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject ICICI Securities Ltd and affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction.