Air travel markets over the next two decades October 2016 Brian Pearce Chief Economist, IATA
We ve enjoyed a long period of above-trend air travel growth 30% Growth in worldwide RPKs 25% 20% 15% 7 years 10% 5% 0% 20 year average -5% -10% -15% -20% 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Source: IATA using data from IATA Statistics
With emerging air passenger markets catching up fast % of total O-D journeys (12m rolling sum) 70% 65% 60% 55% Within developed markets 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% Within emerging markets 25% 20% 15% 10% Between developed and emerging markets 5% 0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: IATA using data from PaxIS+
% change over previous year Confidence index. 50 = no change But lackluster economic cycle now seems to be slowing Global economic cycle indicators 20% 15% 10% International trade growth Industrial production growth 70 65 60 5% 55 0% -5% Business confidence 50 45-10% 40-15% 35-20% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 30 Source: IATA using Netherlands CPB and Markit data
PMI, 50 = no change Both developed and emerging economies now weaker 60 55 Business confidence Developed economies 50 Emerging economies 45 40 35 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: IATA Economics using Markit data
% World awash with savings and short of investment 16 US 10 year Treasury yield and 10 year TIPS real yield 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0-2 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 Source: IATA using data from Haver 10-year Treasury yield 10-year TIPS real yield
US$ trillion Yen trillion Central banks continue to print money 5 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 Central bank assets US Federal Reserve Bank of Japan 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Source: IATA using data from Haver
Asset price valuations back to pre-gfc levels or more 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 US Treasury yields, house prices and equity values US house prices Cyclically-adjusted equity PE ratio US 10-year Treasury yield 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Source: IATA using data from Haver
% of GDP % of GDP The world has a debt problem, again Outstanding debt of non-financial sector, % of GDP 280 270 Developed economies 260 250 240 230 220 Developing economies 210 200 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Source: IATA using data from BIS 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100
Donald Trump Vows to Rip Up Trade Deals and Confront China The New York Times 28 June 2016
Air passenger markets expand substantially under most scenarios Global passengers (O-D basis, billion) 10 Constant policies scenario 9 A Pick-up in Protectionism 8 7 A Relaxing of Regulations 6 5 4 3 2 201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035 Source: IATA using data from TE/IATA Air Passenger Forecasts, October 2016
Centre of growth shifting East and South Source: IATA using data from TE/IATA Air Passenger Forecasts, October 2016
Centre of gravity shifting East 1914 2004 2015 2035 Source: IATA using data from TE/IATA Air Passenger Forecasts, October 2016
Varying catch-up in living standards % CAGR (2015-2035) 5.5% Growth in per capita incomes over the long run 5.0% 4.8% 4.7% 4.5% 3.9% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.4% 1.5% 1.3% 1.2% 0.9% 1.0% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0% Source: IATA using data from TE/IATA Air Passenger Forecasts, October 2016
Which drives frequency of trips Source: IATA using data from TE/IATA Air Passenger Forecasts, October 2016
Emerging economies middle income households catching up % of total Middle-class households 100% 90% 80% 70% The G7 Turkey Mexico 60% 50% 40% Brazil China Russia Indonesia 30% 20% 10% India 0% 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 Source: IATA using data from TE/IATA Air Passenger Forecasts, October 2016
Very different demographics % change 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% The UN's projected change in population (2015-2035,%) UN projections adjusted for demographic factors Source: IATA using data from TE/IATA Air Passenger Forecasts, October 2016
New top international country-pair markets emerging Millions 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2010 2015 2035 2015 Source: IATA using data from TE/IATA Air Passenger Forecasts, October 2016 Mexico - United States Spain - United Kingdom Canada - United States Korea, Republic Of - China United Arab Emirates - India China - Taiwan Spain - Germany Thailand - China Malaysia - Indonesia United Kingdom - United States Japan - China Italy - United Kingdom
Largest increment to passenger numbers on domestic markets China United States India Indonesia Vietnam Turkey Brazil Philippines Australia Mexico Corresponding CAGR 5.2% 2.6% 6.7% 3.5% 8.2% 5.2% 2.6% 6.0% 3.0% 4.2% 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 Change in domestic O-D markets (millions, 2015-2035) Source: IATA using data from TE/IATA Air Passenger Forecasts, October 2016
Rise of Asian domestic markets Top domestic passenger markets, ranked by passenger numbers 12 US 1 12 China 10 China Japan 2 3 10 US India 8 Indonesia 4 8 Indonesia Brazil 5 Brazil 6 India 6 6 Japan Australia 7 Australia 4 Russia 8 4 Turkey 2 0 2015 Turkey Canada 9 10 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 Source: IATA using data from TE/IATA Air Passenger Forecasts, September 2016 2 0 Philippines Mexico
% CAGR Passenger flows to and from (Millions) Rank (2014) Country 5 year 10 year 20 year 2014 2019 2024 2034 2014-2019 2014-2024 2014-2034 Passenger numbers ('000s) CAGR % 1 US Domestic 438,252 554,280 636,662 822,051 4.8% 3.8% 3.2% 2 Canada 23,733 27,166 30,809 39,084 2.7% 2.6% 2.5% 3 Mexico 21,011 24,531 28,762 41,011 3.1% 3.2% 3.4% 4 UK 13,946 18,283 20,628 26,145 5.6% 4.0% 3.2% 5 Japan 9,557 10,214 10,550 11,485 1.3% 1.0% 0.9% 6 Germany 8,369 9,726 10,997 13,975 3.1% 2.8% 2.6% 7 China 6,334 7,004 8,423 12,358 2.0% 2.9% 3.4% 8 France 6,026 7,166 8,284 11,005 3.5% 3.2% 3.1% 9 Dominican Republic 5,836 6,698 8,171 12,288 2.8% 3.4% 3.8% 10 Brazil 5,659 6,071 7,542 11,739 1.4% 2.9% 3.7% 11 India 4,516 6,035 8,070 13,565 6.0% 6.0% 5.7% 12 Korea 4,512 5,729 6,982 9,289 4.9% 4.5% 3.7% 13 Italy 4,344 4,865 5,537 7,103 2.3% 2.5% 2.5% 14 Colombia 3,195 3,769 4,785 7,539 3.4% 4.1% 4.4% 15 Jamaica 3,053 3,838 4,662 6,782 4.7% 4.3% 4.1% 16 Australia 2,813 3,125 3,423 4,106 2.1% 2.0% 1.9% 17 Spain 2,580 3,243 3,912 5,197 4.7% 4.2% 3.6% 18 Bahamas 2,536 3,265 3,930 5,513 5.2% 4.5% 4.0% 19 Ireland 2,298 2,678 3,315 4,350 3.1% 3.7% 3.2% 20 Switzerland 2,233 2,572 2,930 3,796 2.9% 2.8% 2.7% US Domestic Canada Mexico UK Japan Germany China France Dominican Republic Brazil India Korea Italy Colombia Jamaica Australia Spain Bahamas Ireland Switzerland 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 US Domestic Mexico Canada UK Germany India China Dominican Republic Brazil Japan France Korea Colombia Italy Jamaica Bahamas Spain Costa Rica Netherlands Ireland Global Report Country Reports Online database/webtool United States - Passenger Market Overview Air Passenger Forecasts October 2014 Decomposition of growth, 2014-2034 3.5% The United States air passenger market is forecast to grow at an average annual growth rate of 3.2% per annum over the next 20 years. 3.0% 2.5% 0.8% 0.2% This puts the United States in the 28th percentile of fastest growing markets in our forecast during the period 2014-2034. Improvements in livings standards contribute 1.4 percentage points to annual growth. Favourable population and demographic factors are forecast to contribute 0.8 percentage points to annual growth. 2.0% 1.5% 3.2% 0.8% Other factors, mainly future technological gains, will contribute 0.8 percentage points per year. Explanation of the main drivers of growth (for more details, see the Global Report) 1.0% 0.5% 1.4% Living standards: We proxy a country s standard of living by its level of Gross Domestic Product per capita (ie, the total amount of output produced in an economy each year divided by its population). The living standards channel captures the clear relationship between the number of trips taken on average by inhabitants of a country each year and that country s standard of living. Population and demographics: Forecasting air passenger markets requires a further understanding of how many people there will 0.0% be to demand air travel in the future. This will depend on changes in total population sizes over time as well as changes in Total passenger market growth Main drivers demographic structures ; given that older people tend to fly less often than people in working-age groups, air market growth in countries whose populations are projected to age considerably over the coming 20 years is likely to face Living standards Population & Demographics Trade Price & Liberalisation headwinds. Change in passenger numbers, 2014-2034 600 500 400 31.4% Trade flows: A high correlation is observed between a country s trade openness measured by exports and imports as a proportion o an economy s total output and its propensity to travel. We therefore include Oxford Economics forecasts of trade intensity over time into our modelling. Price and liberalisation: The decline in the price of air travel that is the cost of air travel in both monetary terms and the time saved by more direct routes has been a notable feature of the industry over the past 60 years or so. We expect the downward trend in the unit cost of air travel to resume in the future, mainly reflecting new technologies and efficiencies being realized The introduction of new longer-range mid-size aircraft will connect many more city and country pairs too and lead to considerable time savings for passengers. Future potential for reductions in travel times will also be driven by changes in regulatory regimes. 300 559 The United States is forecast to gain an additional 559 million passengers by 2034, compared to 2014. Whilst the United States is in the 28th percentile in terms of fastest growing markets over the next 20 years, it is forecast to be ranked as the 2nd largest markest based on the total number of passengers in 2034. 200 68.6% Domestic passengers will represent 68.6% of total growth over this period, accounting for 384 million addittional passengers. 100 Foreign passengers will contribute less to overall growth, representing 31.4% of total growth, equal to 175 million addittional passengers. 0 Total passenger absolute growth (millions) Domestic Absolute growth by foreign and domestic Foreign Air Passenger Forecasts United States - Top Country Pairs October 2014 Top US country pairs ranked by passenger numbers, 2014-2034 The United States domestic market is ranked 1st in 2014, and is forecast to remain as the largest market in 2034; taking 70.6% of the total market in 2034, down from 76.5% in 2014. Whilst the United States domestic market is the largest market in 2014; the 2nd largest market is Canada, accounting for 3% of total passengers which is forecast to rise marginally to 3.4% by 2034. The biggest three markets in 2014 are the US Domestic, Canada and Mexico, while in 2034 they are forecast to become the US Domestic, Mexico and Canada respectively. The largest riser in the 20 year period is forecast to be India rising 5 places to be ranked 6th largest market in 2034. Whilst the biggest faller in the period 2014-2034 is forecast to be Australia falling 6 places to be ranked 22nd largest market in 2034. www.iata.org/pax-forecast