BUSINESS PLAN IMMUNE TO RISKY SITUATIONS JOANNA STARCZEWSKA, ADVISORY BUSINESS SOLUTIONS MANAGER RISK CENTER OF EXCELLENCE EMEA/AP ATHENS, 13TH OF MARCH 2015
FINANCE CHALLENGES OF MANY FINANCIAL DEPARTMENTS Strategic Plaig Plaig of sales Budgetig for expeses Reasoable forecasts of reserves Ivestmet plaig Bottom-up example pla pla revis pla submit e revis pla submit e revis pla submit e submit pla submit submit revis pla e revis pla e revis e revis pla submit e revis pla submit e revis pla submit e pla Fiacial cosolidatio Cosolidatio with allowace for : Owership rules Itra-group adjustmets Reclassificatio rules Allocatio rules Support for various stadards (local GAAP, IFRS..) How to maage all of that, Reportig Cosolidated aual report i accordace with IFRS Cosolidated aual report i accordace with other GAAP Ivestor Relatio reports Quarterly fiacial Statemets beig cofidet about quality ad cosistecy of data used i all areas Smooth the commuicatio betwee all ivolved parties Provide the reports o time
RISK AND FINANCE INTEGRATION Strategic Plaig Objectives: Achieve certai share i the market Profitability of lies of busiess Value for shareholders Based o assumptios o developmet of portfolio ad forecast of parameters describig portfolio, iitial pla is created. The several what-if aalysis are doe. BUSINESS REASONS Risk immue Capital plaig For each path: Combied ratio Retur o capital Growth of earigs SCR SCR cover ratio BUT SEVERAL THINGS MAY GO WRONG, some caot be aticipated, but some ca be expected. Ad for the latter, isurer ca get prepared. Risk Maagemet Objectives: Esure that projected risk positio meets the risk appetite Capital adequacy i projected years Scearios ad stress scearios should be used, the aalysis what is the risk positio for each of them ad what is the impact of maagemet decisios
RISK AND FINANCE INTEGRATION REGULATORY DRIVERS Need for strog itegratio of risk ad fiace are also articulated ad actually expected by Europea regulatios of Solvecy II, more specifically the oes cocerig Capital Plaig (i pillar II, as part of Ow Risk ad Solvecy Assessmet) 2.43 2.60 Capital plaig icludes projectios of capital requiremets ad ow fuds over the plaig period (ad may iclude the eed to raise ew ow fuds). It is up to each udertakig to decide for itself the reasoable methods, assumptios, parameters, depedecies or levels of cofidece to be used i the projectios Ay strategic or other major decisios that may materially affect the risk or ow fuds positio of the udertakig eed to be cosidered through the forward lookig assessmet of the udertakig s ow risks before such a decisio is take First report o ORSA (icludig Capital Plaig) is expected already this year ORSA implemetatio timelies i EU 2014 2015 ORSA (pilot) Report o ORSA ORSA (prep phase) 2016 ORSA (fial)
RISK AND FINANCE INTEGRATION SITUATION IN MOST OF INSURANCE COMPANIES ACTUAL SITUATION Most of isurers already have some tools i place that could be used for capital plaig. The issue is that they are ot itegrated. TARGET SITUATION Defied aliged busiess models (for strategic plaig, capital plaig ad risk maagemet) Combie activities of all ivolved parties ito oe coheret process supported by itegrated IT eviromet. Strategic Plaig There geerally is busiess model Mostly hadled by MS Excel No itegratio, Data disc repacies, Issues with c ommuic atio, xls flyig aroud Risk Maagemet Major risks Risk appetite Scearios Risk measures Busiess/ Strategic Maagemet Aalysis of impact of maagemet decisios oto capital adequacy Aligmet of risk idicators ad model parameters Busiess objectives ifluece the risk appetite Model &Techology Data architecture ad gover ace Pr ocess automatio Modellig optimizatio/simplificatio Decisio-makig support tools Risk Maagemet Valuatio uder stresses Capital Maagemet Simple aalysis of capital Actuaries Valuatio ools Capital Maagemet Simplified, yet aliged approaches for forward-lookig projectio Ac tuaries
RISK AND FINANCE INTEGRATION FUNCTIONS INVOLVED IN CAPITAL PLANNING There are eve more roles (/fuctios) ivolved ito elemets of Capital Plaig process. It is substatial that all of them uderstadtheir role i the process, ad impact of their actios. IT eviromet should eable the processes to be clear, efficiet ad timely. Clear owership eeds to be defied as well. Board Risk Maagemet Sales Maagemet Fiace Data platform ad workflow supportig the sequece of iput required from several stakeholders Capital Mgmt Ivestmet Mgmt Audit& Cotrol Actuarial, reisurace, Product developmet
precisees s APPROACH TO CAPITAL PLANNING COMPROMISE BETWEEN PRECISENESS AND COMPLEXITY I geeral the EIOPA s guidelies give freedom to isurers to choose the approach for forward-lookig projectios. There are several approaches cosidered o the market. Selectio of method is always a compromise betwee preciseess ad complexity of model. BS roll forward Determiistic BS projectio Stochastic modellig complexity From risk maagemet poit of view it is expected: - to have models as precise as possible - to be able to do reverse sceario From fiacial (strategic plaig) poit of view it is expected: - to have smaller umber of scearios for which alterative strategies may be discussed - Simplified model that quickly provides iput for decisio-makig process Actual practice shows that most of isurers start with simpler approach at the begiig ad pla to develop it withi the time. Such simpler approaches are suggested by Dutch Associatio of Isurers ad (for o-life products ad life without optios ad guaratees) by Society of Actuaries i Irelad.
INTEGRATION OF RISK AND FINANCE SOME IMPORTANT ASPECTS Strategic Plaig Risk Maagemet Level of detail More detailed aalysis of expeses Divisio by sales chaels Importat profit ceters Higher frequecy Approach to valuatio Local GAAP or/ad IFRS value are used Capital Plaig Separate busiess model Sesitive to both, maagemet decisios factors ad risk factors SAS CPNM Solvecy II values are projected, however few elemets (like divideds) eed to be aliged with statutory values Compariso agaist statutory values Operates o detailed portfolios Additioal dimesios of risks, scearios, types of fuds, Aual frequecy Solvecy II values of Balace Sheet SAS FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT SAS RISK MANAGEMENT
FINANCIAL PERSPECTIVE BENEFITS OF USING SAS SOLUTION Sigle, itegrated solutio for Fiacial Cosolidatio, Reportig, Budgetig, Plaig ad Forecastig Process/ close maagemet, data validatio, multiple valuatio reportig Workflow maagemet: submissio, review, approval & distributio. Fiacially aware: advaced system for fiacial reportig O-Demad Cosolidatio (i-memory) Data, orgaizatio chages, what-if aalysis reflected i real-time Predictive Aalytics: Busiess Forecastig Ay ERP / source: Data Itegratio / Trasformatio / Quality tools Supplemetal Schedules: Detail plaig at asset tag level
CAPITAL MANAGEMENT PERSPECTIVE BENEFITS OF USING SAS SOLUTION Itegrate risk ad fiace Aligs the objectives of major processes withi compay Pre-defied, ope busiess model Speedig up the process Possibility of startig simplified way ad develop with time Flexible dimesios Eables the user to perform Qualitative Assessmet ad Risk Profile as well Support for arrative report Ease to geerate the regulatory report o ORSA Easy itegratio with SAS High Performace Forecast Ability to exted the fuctioality with Custom aalytics which ca call ay calculatios More advaced models for iitial projectios of parameters, maagemet factors or eve elemets of BS Possibility of addig the stochastic elemets to the model Possibility of addig advaced asset allocatio
SAS CPNMI BUSINESS MODEL PROCESS FOR DETERMINISTIC APPROACH Step 0 Defie model (risks, factors, formulas) Defie ecoomic factors - Equity idex chg - Iterest rate curves - Property idex Defie chg busiess fiacial factors risk -factors Chg i mortality - rates Equity returs -- Chg Iterest i disability rate rates curves.. - Chg i paymet patter - NB Ratio - Expese ratio - Assets mix Defie -.. which factors will be used as tool for maagemet decisios Defie formulas for projectios icorporatig the ifluece of factors Step 1 Prepare iput data @t=0 Upload Busiess Plaig: IS, BS_stat Upload SII Balace Sheet Upload SCR ad MCR Upload Ow Fuds Upload Costat Params Step 2 Defie scearios Defie scearios as time-vectors of values of all risk factors. They ca be uploaded as result of exteral models: - Ecoometric models - Actuarial models - Combied models Or etered maually. Result: Forecasted values of risk factors for each sceario ad time period Step 3 Defie risk appetite Defie Risk appetite Step 4 Projectio Project (for each sceario, each time-period): - Icome Statemet - Balace Sheet - SCR, MCR - Ow Fuds Step 5 Aalyze alterativ es Test alterative maagemet decisios by chagig mgmt decisio factors, recalculate ad aalyze their ifluece o fial measures (SCR_cover ratio) Defie forms, reports ad processes
SAS CPNMI BUSINESS MODEL SCENARIO DEFINITION MS Office itegratio (Excel, Word, Powerpoit etc.)
SAS CPNMI BUSINESS MODEL RISK APPETITE DEFINITION
SAS CPNMI BUSINESS MODEL INITIAL PROJECTIONS
SAS CPNMI BUSINESS MODEL ANALYSIS OF ALTERNATIVE MANAGEMENT DECISIONS DECISION ON INCREASE OF SALES
SAS CPNMI BUSINESS MODEL ANALYSIS OF ALTERNATIVE MANAGEMENT DECISIONS MITIGATE RISK BY CHANGE IN REINSURANCE PROGRAM
SAS CPNMI BUSINESS MODEL SAMPLE REPORT - DASHBOARD Fially, the result of projectios ad tests of alterative maagemet decisios ca be ecapsulated ito oe dashboard which presets the most meaigful iformatio
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