ABC NEWS/MONEY MAGAZINE CONSUMER INDEX 9/12/04 EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 6:30 p.m. Tuesday, Sept. 14, 2004 Ratings of Finances Reach Two-Year High Americans ratings of their personal finances have inched up to their best in more than two years, helping pull consumer confidence out of a recent slump to edge above its 18- year average. The gradual advance a nine-point gain in personal finance ratings since mid-june could benefit George W. Bush, given the economy s political importance. However, these ratings are highest by far among Republicans, already a core Bush support group. All told, 61 percent rate their personal finances positively, four points above its average since the weekly ABC News/Money magazine survey began in December 1985, and the most since July 2002. That includes 79 percent of Republicans (up 11 points since June), 56 percent of independents (up eight points) and 51 percent of Democrats (up four). Consumer Confidence 2004 0-5 01/04/04 01/18/04 02/01/04 02/15/04 02/29/04 03/14/04 03/28/04 04/11/04 04/25/04 05/09/04 05/23/04 06/06/04 06/20/04 07/04/04 07/18/04 08/01/04 08/15/04 08/29/04 09/12/04 Fewer, 39 percent, rate the economy positively, and as many call it a good time to buy things. Each is up five points since mid-june, and is at or very near its long-term average. -10-15 -20-25
The ABC/Money index, composed of these three ratings, stands at -7 on its scale of +100 to -100, unchanged this week after a four-point gain last week. It's now two points above its career average and 13 points better than it was three months ago. ABC News/Money magazine poll Positive ratings of: This week June 13 2004 avg. 18-yr. avg. National economy 39% 34 37 40 Buying climate 39 34 39 39 Personal finances 61 52 57 57 Consumer Comfort Index -7-20 -12-9 EXPECTATIONS In a separate question, looking ahead, 26 percent of Americans say the economy's improving while more, 38 percent, say it's getting worse about what it was last month, and more pessimistic than views at the start of the year. Nevertheless, expectations have been far worse. At this time in 1992, before Bush s father was defeated for re-election, nearly six in 10 said the economy was getting worse, while just about one in 10 said it was getting better. The numbers today are not far from their long-term averages since 1981 slightly more positive. Economic Expectations 2002-2004 65 55 "Economy is getting worse" 45 35 25 "Economy is getting better" 15 5 2/17/02 4/14/02 6/9/02 7/15/02 8/4/02 10/6/02 12/1/02 1/19/03 3/16/03 5/11/03 7/20/03 9/14/03 11/16/03 1/18/04 3/14/04 5/16/04 7/18/03 9/12/04 Economy is: Getting better Getting worse Staying the same Now 26% 38 35 August 24 38 36 July 29 36 33
January 34 27 37 Sept. 1992 9 58 33 Avg. since 81 21 38 41 TREND The ABC/Money index has had a bumpy year. It hit a 2004 peak of -3 in mid- January, then fell through the winter, bottoming out at -22 in mid-march. It advanced in April, retreated in May through mid-june in the face of rising gasoline prices, and rebounded in late June and July. It slipped in August before edging up last week. The index has ranged from a high of +38 in January 2000 to a low of -50 in February 1992. Its worst annual average was -44 in 1992. Last year it averaged -19, much worse than the best yearly average of +29 in 2000. This year so far it's averaged -12. ABC/Money Index Today -7 Two weeks ago -11 Latest low -20 June 13 Recent high -3 January 2004 2004 average -12 To date 2003 average -19 2002 average -11 2001 average +4 2000 average +29 Best full year 1992 average -44 Worst full year Jan. 16, 2000 +38 Record high Feb. 9, 1992-50 Record low Average since 12/85-9 40 30 20 Consumer Confidence Index Weekly Tracking Results Since December 1985 Record High 1/16/00 +38 10 0 Recession starts 3/01-10 -20-30 -40 Recession starts 7/90-50 -60 12/8/1985 12/8/1986 12/8/1987 12/8/1988 12/8/1989 12/8/1990 12/8/1991 12/8/1992 12/8/1993 12/8/1994 12/8/1995 12/8/1996 12/8/1997 12/8/1998 12/8/1999 12/8/2000 12/8/2001 12/8/2002 12/8/2003
GROUPS Confidence, as usual, is stronger among better-off Americans. The index is +26 among higher-income people while -41 among those with the lowest incomes, +6 among college graduates while -29 among high-school dropouts, -4 among whites while - 34 among blacks and -2 among men but -13 among women. The West (-4) and South (-2) continue to be the best regionally; the index is -16 in the Northeast and -12 in the Midwest. And huge partisan differences persist: The index is +44 among Republicans, but -23 among independents and -33 among Democrats. Positive Ratings of Individual Gauges Since December 1985 90 80 70 Personal Finances 60 50 Buying Climate 40 30 20 10 National Economy 03/30/86 09/28/86 03/29/87 09/27/87 03/27/88 09/25/88 04/02/89 10/01/89 04/01/90 09/30/90 03/31/91 09/29/91 03/29/92 09/27/92 03/28/93 09/26/93 03/27/94 09/25/94 03/26/95 09/24/95 03/24/96 09/22/96 03/23/97 09/21/97 03/22/98 09/20/98 03/21/99 09/19/99 03/19/00 09/17/00 03/18/01 09/16/01 03/17/02 09/15/02 03/16/03 09/14/03 03/14/04 09/12/04 0 Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABC/Money index: NATIONAL ECONOMY Thirty-nine percent of Americans rate the U.S. economy as excellent or good; it was 40 percent last week. The highest was 80 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The lowest was seven percent in late 1991 and early 1992. Pos. NET Excel. Good Neg. NET Not good Poor This week 39 2 37 61 42 19 Avg. since 12/85 40 4 37 60 40 20 PERSONAL FINANCES Sixty-one percent see their own finances as excellent or good; it was 60 percent last week. The best was 70 percent on Aug. 30, 1998, matched in January 2000. The worst was 42 percent on March 14, 1993. Pos. NET Excel. Good Neg. NET Not good Poor
This week 61 8 53 39 28 11 Avg. since 12/85 57 5 52 43 30 13 BUYING CLIMATE Thirty-nine percent say it's an excellent or good time to buy things, the same as last week. The best was 57 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was 20 percent in fall 1990. Pos. NET Excel. Good Neg. net Not good Poor This week 39 2 37 61 43 18 Avg. since 12/85 39 3 36 61 41 20 METHODOLOGY - The ABC News/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index represents a rolling average based on telephone interviews with a random sample of about 1,000 adults nationwide each month. This week's results are based on 1,000 interviews in the four weeks ending Sept. 12, 2004, and have an error margin of plus or minus three percentage points. The expectations question was asked of 500 respondents September 1-12; that result has a 4.5-point margin of error. Field work by ICR- International Communications Research of Media, Pa. The ABC/Money index is derived by subtracting the negative response to each index question from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are then added and divided by three. The index can range from +100 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -100 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December 1985. Analysis by Dalia Sussman. ABC News polls can be found online at http://abcnews.com/pollvault.html. Media contact: Cathie Levine, (212) 456-4934 or Lisa Finkel, (212) 456-6190.
09/12/04 This Last 4 Wks 3 Mo. 1 Yr. 12 Mo 12 Mo 12 Mo Week Week Ago Ago Ago High Low Avg ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- Group -------- GENERAL POPULATION: Overall Index -7-7 -10-20 -19-3 -22-13 State of Economy -22-20 -22-32 -42-12 -46-29 Personal Finances 22 20 14 4 8 22 4 13 Buying Climate -22-22 -22-32 -24-14 -32-22 ------------------------------------------------------------------- OVERALL INDEX BY DEMOGRAPHIC GROUPS Sex: Men -2-4 -1-13 -8 14-15 -5 Women -13-10 -18-26 -28-10 -28-20 Age: 18-34 -7-7 -5-17 -15 3-23 -12 35-44 -3-7 -10-29 -20 11-29 -11 45-54 -8-6 -7-13 -18-1 -24-13 55-64 -10-2 -15-22 -27 3-36 -16 65+ -13-14 -18-19 -18 2-33 -15 Income: Under $15K -41-49 -60-61 -59-41 -68-55 $15K To $24.9K -41-33 -28-61 -31-21 -61-37 $25K To $39.9K -3-2 -21-37 -41-2 -44-24 $40K To $49.9K -10-20 -12-13 -7 27-29 -6 Over $50K 17 22 25 10 8 29 5 16 $50K To $74.9K 10 15 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A $75K To $99.9K 16 18 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Over $100K 26 32 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Region: Northeast -16-13 -12-23 -22-6 -27-17 Midwest -12-12 -7-29 -22 7-29 -14 South -2-5 -12-19 -15-1 -24-12 West -4 1-6 -9-17 9-28 -10 Race: White -4-3 -4-14 -15 3-19 -8 Black -34-33 -49-51 -53-28 -59-41 Politics: Republican 44 47 37 20 14 47 5 30 Democrat -33-31 -38-43 -43-28 -47-38 Independent -23-24 -13-21 -22-2 -40-19 Education: < High School -29-35 -48-60 -37-26 -60-41 High Sch. Grad. -18-15 -15-30 -30-5 -32-19 College + 6 7 5 0-6 14-15 0 Home: Own 1 2 0-8 -10 7-16 -5 Rent -29-30 -32-46 -42-19 -46-33 Marital Status: Single -16-19 -13-29 -24-8 -37-22 Married 5 6 2-9 -9 11-15 0 Sep/Wid/Div -28-26 -41-38 -40-21 -46-35 Employ. Status: Full-Time 3 4-1 -14-8 12-16 -3 Part-Time -9-7 -12-14 -11 5-34 -16 Not Employed -20-21 -21-30 -34-16 -36-25
1. Do you think the nation's economy is getting better, getting worse or staying the same? Getting Getting Staying No Better Worse the Same Opinion 9/12/04 26 38 35 1 8/15/04 24 38 36 2 7/18/04 29 36 33 2 6/13/04 28 38 34 * 5/16/04 25 41 32 2 4/18/04 26 37 35 2 3/14/04 23 42 34 1 2/15/04 29 37 32 2 1/18/04 34 27 37 1 12/14/03 35 27 37 2 11/16/03 32 28 38 2 10/12/03 30 32 35 3 9/14/03 25 39 34 2 8/17/03 26 38 36 1 7/20/03 20 37 42 1 6/15/03 25 33 43 0 5/11/03 22 36 41 0 4/13/03 20 37 43 0 3/16/03 9 52 39 0 2/16/03 20 44 36 0 1/19/03 19 43 37 0 *=less than 1 percent. Call for full trend. ***END***