Growth, competitiveness and jobs: priorities for the European Semester 213 Presentation of J.M. Barroso, President of the European Commission, to the European Council of 14-1 March 213
Economic recovery will be gradual GDP trends in the EU: levels and rates GDP level (27 = 1) GDP rate (annual) 12 11 3.2.3 forecasts 1.6 1 99 1. -.3.1 98 2.1 97 96 3.3-4.3 9 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 Presentation of J.M. Barroso to the European Council, 14-1 March 213 1
Job creation will be subdued Number of people employed in the EU (in million) 23 forecasts 22 22 21 21 2 2 21 22 23 24 2 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 Presentation of J.M. Barroso to the European Council, 14-1 March 213 2
Competitiveness is key Global competitiveness index 212-213 Rank Country Rank Country 1 Switzerland 36 Spain 2 Singapore 39 Czech Republic 3 Finland 41 Poland 4 Sweden 42 Italy Netherlands 4 Lithuania 6 Germany 47 Malta 7 United States 49 Portugal 8 United Kingdom Latvia 9 Hong Kong SAR 6 Slovenia 1 Japan 8 Cyprus 12 Denmark 6 Hungary 16 Austria 62 Bulgaria 17 Belgium 71 Slovak Republic 21 France 78 Romania 22 Luxembourg 81 Croatia 27 Ireland 96 Greece 34 Estonia Presentation of J.M. Barroso to the European Council, 14-1 March 213 Source: World Economic Forum 3
Long-term performance varies significantly Productivity levels and trends 2-212 (hourly productivity levels in per hour worked) per hour worked 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 IE FR DE ES IT EU average EL PT LV 2 21 22 23 24 2 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 Presentation of J.M. Barroso to the European Council, 14-1 March 213 4
This shows in our trade record Changes in the share of the world export market 2-211 17 12 % 7 Gains 2 FR UK IT ES NL BE SE AT DK EL FI PT IE CY MT EU US JP -3 DE PL CZ RO HU SK LU BG SI LT LV EE China Losses Presentation of J.M. Barroso to the European Council, 14-1 March 213
Annual Growth Survey 213: five priorities Pursuing differentiated, growth-friendly fiscal consolidation Restoring normal lending to the economy Promoting growth and competitiveness for today and tomorrow Tackling unemployment and the social consequences of the crisis Modernising public administration Presentation of J.M. Barroso to the European Council, 14-1 March 213 6
Fiscal consolidation and growth: a debated issue (1) 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 Trends in GDP, unemployment and budget deficits in selected Member States Unemployment rate Ireland 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 Greece 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 Budget deficit (% GDP) 1 - -1 1 - -1 Presentation of J.M. Barroso to the European Council, 14-1 March 213 Note: the scales vary for each country 7 2 1 1 - -1-1 -2 2 1 1 - -1-1 -2 Real GDP growth (right-hand scale) Latvia -17.7 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 Portugal 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 1 - -1 1 - -1
Fiscal consolidation and growth: a debated issue (2) 3 2 1-1 -2-3 1 1 - -1-1 Trends in GDP, unemployment and budget deficits in selected Member States Unemployment rate Spain 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 France 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 Budget deficit (% GDP) 1 - -1 1 - -1 Presentation of J.M. Barroso to the European Council, 14-1 March 213 Note: the scales vary for each country 8 1 1 - -1-1 1 - -1 Real GDP growth (right-hand scale) Italy 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 Germany 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 1 - -1 1 - -1
Current accounts are improving Current account balances (% of GDP) 1 211 214 (forecast) % of GDP - EL PT PL RO CY CZ ES LT IT FR SK LV FI UK MT SI EE BE HU IE AT BG DE DK LU SE NL -1-1 Presentation of J.M. Barroso to the European Council, 14-1 March 213 9
Imbalances are being corrected (1) Trends in current account balances and unit labour costs in selected Member States Unit labour costs, in EUR (2 = 1) Unit labour costs relative to trade partners (2 = 1) Current account surplus/deficit in % of GDP (right-hand scale) 16 1 14 13 12 11 1 9 8 Ireland 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 6 4 2-2 -4-6 -8 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 Latvia 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 1 1 - -1-1 -2-2 1 14 13 12 11 1 9 8 Greece 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 - -1-1 -2 Presentation of J.M. Barroso to the European Council, 14-1 March 213 Note: the scales vary for each country 1 14 13 13 12 12 11 11 1 1 Portugal 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214-2 -4-6 -8-1 -12-14
Imbalances are being corrected (2) Trends in current account balances and unit labour costs in selected Member States Unit labour costs, in EUR (2 = 1) Unit labour costs relative to trade partners (2 = 1) Current account surplus/deficit in % of GDP (right-hand scale) 1 14 13 12 11 1 9 8 Spain 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 4 2-2 -4-6 -8-1 -12 1 14 13 12 11 1 9 8 Italy 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 1-1 -2-3 -4 France Germany 1 2 16 8 14 1 1 6 13 14 13 4 12-1 12 2 11-2 11 1 1 9-3 9-2 8-4 8-4 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 Presentation of J.M. Barroso to the European Council, 14-1 March 213 Note: the scales vary for each country 11
Structural adjustments are taking place 3 3 2 2 1 1 - Changes in the composition of current account adjustment pps. of GDP 27-11 211-14 -1 IE LV PT ES EL DE IT FR IE LV PT ES EL DE IT FR IE LV PT ES EL DE IT FR Exports Imports Income and transfers Presentation of J.M. Barroso to the European Council, 14-1 March 213 12
Energy prices matter for competitiveness Electricity prices for industry in / kwh (2 nd semester 211) Total price (all taxes included) Energy & supply costs Network costs Taxes & levies (excluding VAT) VAT,2,2,1,1,, BG EE FI FR* RO LU NL PT PL EL LT CZ HU* LV AT ES EU* BE IE DE MT IT DK CY * For FR and HU, and hence for the EU, disaggregated data are not available, Presentation of J.M. Barroso to the European Council, 14-1 March 213 so only the total for "energy, supply and network costs" is shown. 13
Raising innovation levels is a priority R&D investments in the EU as a % of GDP 211 performance* 22 national target** % 4, 4, 3, 3, 2, 2, 1, 1,,, EU target FI SE DK DE AT SI EE FR BE NL EU CZ UK IE PT LU ES IT HU LT PL MT LV SK EL BG CY RO * EL: 27. **No targets set by EL and the UK. For CZ: a target (of 1%) is available only for the public sector. For IE: the target is 2.% of GNP which is estimated to be equivalent to 2.% of GDP. For LU: the target is between 2.3% and 2.6% (2.4% was assumed). Presentation of J.M. Barroso to the European Council, 14-1 March 213 14
Education and skills are also key Share of young people (age 3-34) with tertiary attainment 212 performance 22 national target 7 6 % 4 3 EU target 2 1 IE CY LU* SV LT UK FI FR* BE DK NL ES EE SL PL* LV EU DE* EL HU BG PT AT CZ SK MT RO IT Presentation of J.M. Barroso to the European Council, 14-1 March 213 * 211 data 1
The example of the ICT sector Digital jobs: vacancies and graduates* (numbers) Vacancies in the digital sector New ICT graduates 1.. 9. 8. 7. 6.. 4. 3. 2. 1. 211 212 213 214 21 * Surveys and forecasts assuming moderate growth in GDP and ICT investment. Only ICT graduates are considered here. Presentation of J.M. Barroso to the European Council, 14-1 March 213 Source: Empirica 16
We need to redouble our efforts to combat unemployment, especially among young people Unemployment rates and numbers of unemployed, overall and among young people (under 2) (December 212) Unemployment rates in % (total population) Number of persons unemployed (rounded) Youth unemployment rates in % Number of young unemployed (rounded) Unemployment rates in % (total population) Number of persons unemployed (rounded) Youth unemployment rates in % Number of young unemployed (rounded) EU 1.7 2 926 23.4 72 BE 7. 368 2. 8 BG 12.3 411 27. 69 CZ 7. 394 21. 78 DK 8. 233 14.7 6 DE.3 2 236 8. 362 EE 9.9 68 19. 13 IE 14.7 316 3.2 68 EL 26.8 1 346 7.6 181 ES 26.1 972.6 97 FR 1.6 3 12 3 27. 794 IT 11.2 2 87 36.6 61 CY 14.7 66 28. 12 LV 14.1 146 31.7 32 LT 12.3 187 23.6 31 LU.3 13 18.8 3 HU 1.9 476 27.9 87 MT 6.7 13 1.7 NL.8 2 1. 144 AT 4.3 188 8. 1 PL 1.6 1 84 28.4 436 PT 16. 897 38.3 174 RO 6. 661 23. 194 SI 1. 12 26.9 22 SK 14.7 4 3.9 8 FI 7.7 26 18.9 63 SE 7.8 39 23.9 14 UK 7.8 2 474 2. 938 Presentation of J.M. Barroso to the European Council, 14-1 March 213 17