Economic and Financial Outlook in the DRC by Laure Gnassou, Economic Affairs Officer (gnassou@un.org) Political Affairs Division MONUSCO 23 rd October 2012
OUTLINE INTRODUCTION: The DRC At-A-Glance (Focus on Socio- Economic Indicators) 1. Global outlook in 2012-2013 2. Overview of the DRC s Economy in 2012-2013 3. Focus on Mining Sector in the DRC CONCLUSION: Key challenges of the DRC 1/9
INTRODUCTION: The DRC At-A-Glance (Focus on Socio-Economic Indicators) Graph 1. A Rent-based Economy Socio-Economic Indicators Total Population (2010): 67.8 million Health Expenditures on health, public (2006): 1.2% of GDP Expenditures on health, public (2010): n.a. Poverty Population living below USD 1.25 per day (2006): n.a. Population living below USD 1.25 per day (2010): 59.22% In 2011, the DRC was ranked 187 out 187 countries (Human Development Index UNDP) Source: Human Development Report, UNDP, 2006, 2010 & 2011. 2/9 3
1. Global Outlook in 2012-2013 In 2012, IMF estimate of global output: 3.3% The U.S. Debt issue From AAA to AA (Standard & Poor s): 5 August 2011 Europe Debt crisis in the Euro zone: Risk of banking crisis Emerging Countries Key role of China 3/9 4
2. Overview of the DRC s Economy in 2012-2013 2.1. Key Macroeconomic Indicators in 2012 Real GDP Growth rate: 7.2% Contribution to growth rate: - Extractive Industries: 25.2% - Trade: 22.92% - Infrastructure: 19.28% Graph 2. Growth Rate in the DRC from 2006 to 2012 in% Annual Inflation (14 October 2012): 6.89% Exchange rate (14 October 2012): USD 1 = CDF 917.59 2012 State budget: USD 7,037,621,614 Source: 2011 Annual Report, Central Bank of Congo, 2012. Impact of the international financial crisis on the DRC s economy 5 4/9
2.2. Resilience of the DRC s Economy in 2013 Real GDP Growth rate: 8.3% in 2013 IMF estimate Key factors of Resilience Rise in industrial mining production & increase in commodity prices, incl. copper and tin in 2012 Emerging countries: Key trading partners- Export of mining products from Katanga copper-cobalt belt Table 1. Exports by Major Trading Partner from 2010 to 2011 (in Million of USD) Countries 2010 2011 1. European Union 1,884.6 1,971.3 2. North America 445.2 477.3 3. Japan 41.3 51.5 4. Other OECD Countries 13.2 16.0 Sub total OECD (1+2+3+4) 2,384.3 2,516.0 5. Various destination 6,093.6 6,955.9 6. China 1,392.5 1,609.2 7. Brazil 193.5 203.5 8. South Africa 200.8 252.1 9. Other countries 4,306.9 4,891.0 Total 8,477.9 9,471.9 Source: 2011 Annual Report, Central Bank of Congo, 2012. The DRC facing an Internal Shock Volatile security situation in Eastern DRC Additional pressures public finance 5/9 6
3. Focus on Mining Sector in the DRC 3.1. Key Industrial Production (Copper, Cobalt, and Zinc) from 2006 to 2011 Graph 4. Production of Copper, Cobalt, and Zinc in Katanga from 2006 to 2011 Graph 5. Copper: Production of Gecamines Sarl, Partners of GCM, and Others in Katanga from 2006 to 2011 Source: Evolution économique récente, October 2012, Central Bank of Congo. Note: (p): Provisoire. Source: Evolution économique récente, October 2012, Central Bank of Congo. Note: (p): Provisoire. 6/9 7
3.2. Mining Sector: Key Events from 2002 to 2012 INDUSTRIAL MINING Mining Contracts Review: 61 mining contracts of Public Sector Enterprises (June 2007- October 2010) ARTISANAL MINING As of 2008, Conflict Free Minerals Initiatives including Section 1502 of Dodd-Franck Act of 21 July 2010 ARTISANAL MINING Mining Ban in Kivus and Maniema (9 September 2009-10 March 2010) Mining regulation (26 March 2003) Mining code (11 July 2002) INDUSTRIAL MINING Sales of Gecamines Sarl Assets ( as of March 2011) 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2002 2008 2010 2012 Review of Mining code 7/9 8
3.3. Mining Sector: Key Challenges in 2012-2013 Commodities Markets Regulatory framework Review of mining code Business climate Better Governance of Mining Sector Traceability of mining contracts 8/9 9
CONCLUSION: Key Challenges of the DRC - Increase in mobilization of public revenues - Mining policy - Infrastructure policy - Oil policy - Cautious external debt strategy - Restoration of Peace and Security in Eastern DRC Thank you 7 9/9