GMARG Meeting Ashling Hotel, Thursday 20 th August 2015
Today s Agenda 1. Introduction 2. Review of Previous Minutes and Actions 16 July 2015 3. SMART Metering Update 4. GNI Presentation on Site Specific Corrections Factors 5. Post Code project 6. GNI Verbal Updates 7. CER Verbal Updates 8. Market Statistics (PAYG/GPRO) 9. Dates of Next GMARG Meetings and Conference Calls 10.A.O.B. 2
2. Review of Previous Minutes & Actions 16 July 2015 Action Number Status Overview Responsible G121 Open Data Processing Agreement. Latest version has been issued to industry GNI/Suppliers G132 Open DDR 62 tracking of siteworks complaints/escalations process under the trial is continuing G 153 Open Vulnerable Customers/Special Services Register: (i) Outstanding supplier reconciliation exercises to be completed (ii) Supplier to review updated GNI paper (iii) Definition of elderly to be reviewed G 165 Open The key outstanding items on the schema release are as follows: (i) GNI have issued draft MPD s to industry to reflect the schema change. Industry feedback welcome by 31 July. After this, GNI will upload the revised versions on the website. (ii) CER to approve Revenue Protection Processes captured in the schema. CER to update at next GMARG GNI/Suppliers GNI GPRO GNI Reg/Suppliers/CER 3
2. Review of Previous Minutes & Actions 16 July 2015 (continued) Action Number Status Overview Responsible G 166 Open Application of lock moratorium to IC sites being considered by CER. Suppliers to finalise their submission (through EAI) CER/Suppliers G 173 Open Suppliers to approve GNI proposal on misdirected payments GNI FAR/Suppliers G 175 Open GNI to undertake high level impact assessment of postcodes GNI GPRO/IT G 178 Open Annual AQ/SPC process: Suppliers to review and revert with any queries by early August GNI/Suppliers G 179 New CER to discuss post code project with DCENR CER 4
5 3. SMART Metering Update (Verbal)
Item 4: Site Specific Correction Factors GNI Presentation to GMARG
Agenda Overview of Site Specific Correction Factors Proposal Next Steps Appendices 7
SSCF background Gas Networks Ireland conducted a review of the application of Site Specific Correction Factors at large NDM Gas Points; Site Specific Conversion Factors (SSCF) apply to certain categories of NDM gas points that: Do not consume enough gas to warrant a volume corrector but Which should have a specific factor applied as opposed to a generic correction factor There is a requirement for a Site Specific Correction Factor SSCF to be applied to NDM Industrial & Commercial sites which meet the following criteria: The Annual Quantity AQ is greater or equal to 732,000 kwh and/or The Gas Point Running Pressure is greater than 25mbar; and Where Volume Conversion Devices are not in place. Policy approved by CER in 2006 as part of Market Opening developments Dealt with moving to new regime of Third Party Access and its impact on existing connections Policy also detailed how SSCF would be determined for new connections going forward 8 The implementation of the existing SSCF Policy was reviewed recently together with the UK Methodology
SSCF requirement Energy content of delivered gas depends on the number of molecules delivered and the energy content of the molecules: Energy = V actual x Volume Correction Factor x Energy Conversion Factor Measured volume at meter Adjustment factor based on pressure and temperature of gas to derive a standardised volume Heat content of standardised volume of gas, CV Volume Correction Factors ensure accuracy of, and fairness, of billing between different off-takes. For loads other than the largest with sophisticated volume correction devices but which exceed 732,000 kwh or which are supplied at higher than normal gas supply pressures Site Specific Correction Factors are applied. 9
SSCF determination The SSCF to apply will be determined based on the following meter specific elements: meter gauge pressure altitude of the meter geographical supply area (one of ten areas) supply from medium pressure system meter location (inside/outside) temperature compensation applied (yes/no) All of these factors affect either the actual or expected pressures/temperatures at the meter. 10
SSCF Data required to determine accurate SSCFs Site specific locational data should be available from site visits and the Geographical Information System (altitude) GNI Asset Operations carry out Function Checks at NDM Sites: All meters G400 are function checked yearly. Medium Pressure G100 G250 are function checked every 2 years. Low Pressure G100 G250 are function checked every 3 years. All Modules G20 G65 are function checked every 5 years. As part of the I&C Meter Replacement Project & I&C Safety Surveys there is a function check carried out. An outcome of this activity is that changes to Gas Point Running Pressure values have been observed 11
Outcome of Review Many NDM Sites are availing of Gas Pressures greater than 25mbar This results in higher gas pressure at a number of NDM Sites which means that such customers receive a benefit by consuming lower gas volumes as metered; For the same corrected volume the measured volume would be greater if operating at a lower pressure These customers are receiving lower bills from their Shippers This is also having an impact on Distribution Shrinkage and currently being paid for by all Distribution system users (possibly accounting for up to 10% of Distribution UAG) 12
NDM I&C Population NDM Industrial & Commercial Gas Points with Registered Shippers and customers Category With Volume 148 Conversion Devices With Site Specific 1,417 Correction Factors Others 23,128 Total 24,693 13
Site Visits Gas Point Running Pressure To date Asset Operations have obtained Gas Point Running Pressure measurements at 791 NDM I&C sites The outcome of this is as follows: Category Existing SSCF in place continues to meet criteria 404 Eligible for SSCF 158 Existing SSCF in place no longer eligible 229 Total 791 14 The remaining Gas Points are scheduled for site visits; Approximately 1,500 to 1,600 Gas Points in total are eligible for SSCFs.
Analysis of 791 Sites Under or Over Allocation kwh per Annum Number of sites Total AQ (KWh s) Increase/ Decrease (KWh s) % Average Increase/ Decrease per site (KWh s) Under Allocation 433 390,303,767 18,431,937 4.72% 42,568 No Change (+/- 0.5%) 153 210,471,442 153,106 0.07% 1,000 Over Allocation 205 101,975,215 Overall - 1,230,039-1.21% - 6,000 791 702,441,750 17,355,004 2.47% 15
Analysis of 791 Sites Under or Over Allocation Euro Gas Value per Annum Number of Sites Total Value ( ) Average Value per site ( ) Under allocation 433 390,674 902 No change (+/- 0.5%) 153 Over allocations 205-26,071-127 Unit Rate applied = Average SAP for 2014: 0.02119549 per KWh Range ( ) 13-12,000 Up to 2,000 16 This relates to wholesale SAP price only. In practice the financial impact on the End User could be three times this as the Shipper will be charging a retail price in the region of 6 cent/kwh when you include transportation, fixed costs etc.
High Level Impact of SSCF Adjustments across 791 sites Change Number of Sites Greater than 3% Reduction 6 0.5 to 3% Reduction 199 No Change (+/- 0.5%) 153 0.5% to 3% Increase 364 Greater than 3% Increase 69 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 Impact of SSCF Changes 17 NDM Metering Tolerance in Code of Operations is +/- 3% 0 Greater than 3% Reduction 0.5 to 3% Reduction No Change (+/- 0.5%) Existing New No SSCF 0.5% to 3% Increase Greater than 3% Increase
SSCF Medium Term Impact The introduction of a new SSCF policy could see Distribution UAG (which is paid for by all customers reduce by as much as 10%) It is a fundamental part of the Distribution tariff regime Another solution would be to install more volume correctors but the costs totally outweigh the benefits (circa. 1,100 per site) More accurate and fairer application of metering for large NDM sites that do not justify the cost of a volume corrector More accurate and fairer application of metering for large NDM sites based on the Gas Point Running Pressure at the site 18
GNI Proposal GNI to use most recent Pressure values to calculate revised SSCFs. Revised SSCFs values to become applicable on 1 st October, 2015. GNI are proposing not to apply retrospective adjustments to sites that do not currently have a SSCF or to sites with revised values. GNI will cap any upward adjustments at 3% per annum (69 sites). GNI will apply retrospective adjustments to sites where over allocations of greater than 3% have taken place (6 sites) 1 year or to date of Pressure Reading which ever is the longest this will be provided via an AC Read. 19
What does it mean for Shippers? Certain customers will require retrospective rebates, processed through their Registered Shipper; New SSCF factors applied from 01 October will see impacts on KWhs registered at affected sites (some higher, some lower) 20
Next Steps Proposal to be considered by Shippers and feedback to be provided by Friday, 4 th September, 2015; Draft Procedure to be considered by Shippers and feedback to be provided by Friday, 4 th September; The Draft Procedure provides: Details of the SSCF Methodology; Proposes a Monthly Review Process; Revised SSCF values will be applied from 1 st October, 2015 21
Appendices
Determining Energy Quantities for Invoicing Gas Consumption Energy = Metered Volume x Calorific Value x CV Zone Correction Factor x Gas Point Correction Factor/ 3.6 CV Zone Correction Factor = 1 for NDM Sites with a SSCF; Gas Point Correction Factor is not equal to 1 for NDM Sites with a SSCF; Gas Point Correction Factor = 1 for NDM Sites that do not meet the SSCF criteria; The CV Zone Correction Factor and Gas Point Correction Factor values are sent to Shippers in any Market Message containing a Meter Read; e.g. M803N. 23
24 SSCF Calculation
5. Post Code Project GNI Verbal update 25
Verbal Updates 6. GNI Verbal update 7. CER Verbal Update 26
27 8. Market Statistics (PAYG/GPRO)
July-15 PPM Review Meter Installation Stats Overview Total consuming PPM Population 95,951 (as of 05/08/2015) This represents 15.1% of the Total NDM Residential Population This is a switch of 0.9% of the entire NDM population to PPM in past 12 months. Gas-card Services are now available at >1,430 Payzone Outlets nationally. Meter Installations 1,033 PPM Meter fits per month (based on 12 month rolling average) PPM Installations are broken into 3 groups; 1) PPM Meter Fit (21) 2) Credit Meter to PPM Exchange (629) 3) PPM to PPM Exchange (183) 78% of all PPM meter installations in July were new PPM installations, the remainder were PPM-PPM exchanges. 833 PPM Meters were installed in July Average new PPM fits per month over last 12 months = 650 meters. Financial Hardship 63,426 Financial Hardship PPM meters have been installed since the project began in 2009. 567 Financial Hardship meters installed in July 2015. 30,250 Financial Hardship Meters have been installed under PC3 out of an allowance of 40,923. 68.1% of all meters fitted in the last 12 months were assigned Financial Hardship. 28
No of Meters Fitted % of Meters Installed with F-H PPM Financial Hardship Installations 4000 3800 3600 3400 3200 3000 2800 2600 2400 2200 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 29 Financial Hardship Meters Fitted By Month Meters Fitted with Financial Hardship % of PPM Meter fits with FH YTD % Meters Installed with Financial Hardship 100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Total FH Meters Month Fitted May-14 1144 Jun-14 796 Jul-14 843 Aug-14 717 Sep-14 781 Oct-14 603 Nov-14 474 Dec-14 369 Jan-15 439 Feb-15 577 Mar-15 650 Apr-15 570 May-15 615 Jun-15 563 Jul-15 567
Total No of Meter Installations PPM Meter Fit Type 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 30 4000 PPM Meter Fits by Job Type PPM Meter Fit Total PPM Installed PPM to PPM Exchange Credit Meter to PPM Exchange 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 PPMs Installed by Job Type Date of Meter Fit PPM Meter Fit PPM to PPM Exchan ge Credit Meter to PPM Exchan ge Jul-14 29 242 892 Aug-14 22 281 774 Sep-14 41 287 839 Oct-14 79 394 644 Nov-14 34 526 541 Dec-14 38 506 414 Jan-15 37 607 488 Feb-15 22 486 629 Mar-15 28 406 692 Apr-15 14 238 652 May-15 41 219 678 Jun-15 22 274 615 Jul-15 21 183 629
GPRO CoS monthly CoS monthly Gas Year to date Month RD Credit RD PPM I/C Total GYTD Oct-14 9,284 1,285 367 10,936 10,936 Nov-14 8,947 1,100 289 10,336 21,272 Dec-14 6,660 920 208 7,788 29,060 Jan-15 8,385 502 228 9,115 38,175 Feb-15 8,666 539 337 9,542 47,717 Mar-15 7,444 608 271 8,323 56,040 Apr-15 6,881 714 719 8,314 64,354 May-15 7,693 1,220 648 9,561 73,915 Jun-15 6,986 883 563 8,432 82,347 Jul-15 8,080 920 415 9,415 91,762 31 GYTD 79,026 8,691 4,045
GPRO CoS Rejections CoS rejections Month Number Rejections vs Successful CoSs Oct-14 342 3.1% Nov-14 388 3.8% Dec-14 300 3.9% Jan-15 293 3.2% Feb-15 343 3.6% Mar-15 366 4.4% Apr-15 328 3.9% May-15 343 3.6% Jun-15 356 4.2% Jul-15 424 4.5% 32 GYTD 3,483
GPRO Debt Flagging Stats Debt Flagging in CoS Total Debt Flag Received Total CoS Cancelled % of Debt Flags then Cancelled % Debt Flag to CoS #'s Oct-14 113 50 44.2% 1.0% Nov-14 79 24 30.4% 0.8% Dec-14 86 33 38.4% 1.1% Jan-15 60 30 50.0% 0.7% Feb-15 57 21 36.8% 0.6% Mar-15 58 30 51.7% 0.7% Apr-15 64 29 45.3% 0.8% May-15 89 51 57.3% 0.9% Jun-15 105 55 52.4% 1.2% Jul-15 107 54 50.5% 1.1% 33 GYTD 818 377
GPRO Corrections and Amendments Corrections and Amendments Corrections Amendments Total C&A Total C&A processed vs Completed CoS Oct-14 277 102 379 3.5% Nov-14 231 123 354 3.4% Dec-14 286 88 374 4.8% Jan-15 225 62 287 3.1% Feb-15 322 78 400 4.2% Mar-15 352 78 430 5.2% Apr-15 294 77 371 4.5% May-15 319 46 365 3.8% Jun-15 395 110 505 6.0% Jul-15 383 109 492 5.2% 34 GYTD 3,084 873 3,957
9. GMARG Meetings for 2015 Date (all 10am starts unless otherwise advised) Location 17 Sept 2015 Conference Call * 15 Oct 2015 Dublin 19 Nov 2015 Conference Call * 17 Dec 2015 Dublin * Conference Call slots subject to agreement at previous physical GMARG 35
10. AOB 36