CAIRNS 2018 EDITION 1 CAIRNS REGIONAL CENTRE
CAIRNS Cairns is currently the 14th most populated area in the nation, with the latest ABS figures showing a population base of 161932 for the Greater Cairns area. This region holds approximately 3% of the population in the state of Queensland and has grown on average by approximately 3145 people per annum since 2006. The Cairns property market has experienced historic compounding growth rates of 7.26% PA for houses since 1980. The last 10, 7, 5 & 3 years have seen the Compounded PA growth rate perform well below this long term average. In 2016, the dominant sector was Health Care & Social Assistance contributing 12% to GRP. This was followed by Transport, Postal & Warehousing and Public Administration & Safety both at 10%. Ideally, to minimize risk, we would like no one industry at more than 10% contribution. Based on these standard categories provided by the ABS Cairns appears quite diversified. However, tourism is the major contributor to the economy. Infrastructure spending peaked in 2016 with approximately $4117 per person committed to public infrastructure spending for projects over $10 million. In 2017 this dropped to $2236 per person and is forecasted to be $2509 in 2018. $2509 per person of spending in the pipeline is considered below average based on the national average of $3000 per person. There are however, some major projects in the planning stages which have not been added into these calculations. MAJOR PROJECTS APPROVED Western Arterial Road & Bill Fulton Bridge Duplication / 20 Year Airport Redevelopment / Southern Access Corridor Stage 2 / Lake Street CBD Carpark Development / Convention Centre Upgrade / Performing Arts centre & Precinct CAIRNS AS WE SEE IT We believe this market is showing Value. Given the rate of long term growth, economic diversification and the population base we believe it is best suited to a Medium Term Trading Strategy. We classify the Mackay as a High Risk investment based on the size of the population, negative population growth and economic factors. 2
AT A GLANCE Type of Tenure Other, 0.7% Not Stated, 3.1% Rented, 39.9% Owned Outright, 23.7% CAIRNS 2018 Owned with Mortgage, 33.5% Median rent for houses in Cairns is $380 and $300 for units. Median house rent has increased approximately 17% since 2011. THE CAIRNS HOUSE MARKET PREVIOUSLY PEAKED IN 2007 AND HOUSE PRICES ARE CURRENTLY ONLY 14% HIGHER THAN THIS LAST PEAK. THE UNIT MARKET LAST PEAKED IN 2007 AND THE CURRENT UNIT MEDIAN PRICE IS -12% LOWER THAN 2007 PRICES. Both houses and units have experienced less than the historical growth rate over the last 10, 7, 5 and 3 years. 2007 4.8% YIELDS FOR HOUSES HAVE BEEN STAGNANT SINCE 2011 AND ARE CURRENTLY SITTING AT 4.8% FOR HOUSES AND 6.8% FOR UNITS. After experiencing a high of 4.4% in 2010, vacancy rates are currently at 1.9%. THE CURRENT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IS down from a high of 8.6% in 2016. 5.9% THE POPULATION IN CAIRNS HAS INCREASED ON AVERAGE 2% PER ANNUM OVER THE LAST 10 YEARS. 0 50K 100K 150K 200K 3
CONTENTS Key Indicator 1 THE ECONOMY Key Indicator 4 SUPPLY FACTORS Gross Regional Product Neutral Dwelling Approvals V. Vacancy Rate Positive Council Budget Slightly Positive Bedroom Approvals V. Population Neutral Industry Diversity Negative Vacancy Rate V. Median Rent Positive Stock on Market Slightly Negative Key Indicator 2 AFFORDABILITY Gross Affordability Index (House) V. Price Growth Positive Key Indicator 5 INVESTMENT VALUE Gross Affordability Index (Unit) V. Price Growth Positive Long Term Performance Positive Median Price V. Income Slightly Positive Yield Positive Median Price V. Rent Slightly Positive House V. Unit Price Movements Positive Brisbane V. Cairns Positive Key Indicator 3 DEMAND FACTORS Population Population Pyramid Unemployment Rate Job Creation Infrastructure Spending Airport Arrivals Cruise Ship Arrivals Slightly Negative Slightly Negative Positive Slightly Positive Positive Positive Positive Sydney V. Cairns Price Comparison Positive Neutral Dwelling Sales Slightly Negative 4
OUR VIEW OF THE CAIRNS HOUSE MARKET We believe that currently this market is showing Value. LIMITED VALUE AVOID AVOID The market is showing no value and price falls in the short term are possible. There are no fundamentals that support price growth in the short term. The market is showing some value opportunities. Overall, most fundamental indicators support growth. LIMITED VALUE CAUTION CAUTION VALUE The market is showing good value on most properties. Many fundamental indicators exist which support strong growth. C AIR NS SU B U R B R A N G E - H O USES VALUE The market is close to being overvalued and/or oversupplied. We see minimal growth over the short- to medium-term. For more information on the Cairns market, including individual property and suburb selections, call to speak to one of our professional property advisors on 03 8539 0300. 5
OUR VIEW OF THE CAIRNS UNIT MARKET We believe that currently this market is showing Value. LIMITED VALUE AVOID AVOID The market is showing no value and price falls in the short term are possible. There are no fundamentals that support price growth in the short term. The market is showing some value opportunities. Overall, most fundamental indicators support growth. LIMITED VALUE CAUTION CAUTION VALUE The market is showing good value on most properties. Many fundamental indicators exist which support strong growth. VALUE C AIR N S SU B U R B R AN G E - U NITS The market is close to being overvalued and/or oversupplied. We see minimal growth over the short- to medium-term. For more information on the Cairns market, including individual property and suburb selections, call to speak to one of our professional property advisors on 03 8539 0300. 6
GROSS REGIONAL PRODUCT V. MEDIAN PRICE $500,000 10,000 $450,000 9,000 $400,000 $365,000 $369,000 $371,000$360,000 $357,750 $370,000 $390,973 $415,000 $410,000 $405,000 8,000 $350,000 $320,000 $362,500 7,000 $300,000 $280,000 6,000 NEUTRAL $250,000 $252,000 5,000 $200,000 $150,000 $150,000 $165,000 $193,000 4,000 3,000 $100,000 2,000 $50,000 1,000 $- 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 0 GRP ($Mil) Median House Price 7
CAIRNS CITY COUNCIL BUDGET POSITION $50,000,000 $45,415,689 $40,000,000 $30,000,000 SLIGHTLY POSITIVE $20,000,000 $16,818,191 $10,000,000 $7,384,546 $8,700,00 $5,800,000 $- -$3,504,763 -$10,000,000 -$5,764,055 -$11,292,711 -$20,000,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 8
INDUSTRY DIVERSITY Other Services, 3.0% Arts and Recreation Services, 1.0% Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing, 2.0% Mining, 2.0% Manufacturing, 5.0% Health Care and Social Assistance, 12.0% Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services, 3.0% Education and Training, 7.0% Construction, 9.0% NEGATIVE Wholesale Trade, 5.0% Public Administration and Safety, 10.0% Retail Trade, 8.0% Administrative and Support Services, 4.0% Accommodation and Food Services, 6.0% Professional, Scientific and Technical Services, 4.0% Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services, 4.0% Transport, Postal and Warehousing, 10.0% Financial and Insurance Services, 6.0% Information Media and Telecommunications, 2.0% 9
GROSS AFFORDABILITY INDEX (HOUSE) V. PRICE GROWTH 120% 35% 31% 30% 100% 25% 80% 17% 20% 14% 14% 14% 15% POSITIVE 12% 60% 10% 11% 10% 9% 40% 20% 45% 5% 37% 34% 31% 41% 42% -1% 34% -2% -3% 23% -1% 23% 0% 23% -2% 25% 3% 19% 21% 24% 32% 34% 39% 44% 48% 1% 26% 2% -2% 33% 29% -3% -1% 26% 3% 22% 6% 23% 5% 22% -1% 22% 2% 22% 5% 0% -5% -9% -10% 0% -15% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Median House Price Affordability Index (State Income) (Avg 30%) 10
GROSS AFFORDABILITY INDEX (UNIT) V. PRICE GROWTH 40% 120% 35% 34% 35% 100% 30% 30% 31% 28% 31% 80% 25% 26% 23% 23% 26% 24% 23% 24% 60% POSITIVE 22% 20% 19% 20% 20% 19% 18% 40% 17% 17% 24% 21% 16% 15% 15% 16% 20% 14% 12% 12% 12% 12% 13% 13% 13% 12% 7% 12% 3% 10% 2% 5% 8% 1% 1% 2% 10% -6% 2% 0% 0% 0% -1% 0% -4% -2% -7% 5% -16% -20% -19% 0% -40% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Median House Price Affordability Index (State Income) (Avg 22%) 11
MEDIAN PRICE V. INCOME $450,000 $1,600 $400,000 $365,000 $1,472 $1,452 $415,000 $410,000 $1,416 $1,426 $405,000 $1,444 $1,356 $1,372 $390,973 $317,000 $370,000 $360,000 $1,400 $350,000 $320,000 $1,107 $1,200 $1,216 $1,200 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $401 $437 $461$484 $611 $558 $575$584 $163,000 $503 $566 $146,000 $132,000 $120,000 $123,000 $110,000 $108,100 $80,000 $600 $617 $659$662 $156,000 $148,000 $151,000 $151,000 $670 $722 $786 $759 $714 $150,000 $165,000 $252,000 $866 $848 $193,000 $1,025 $280,000 $989 $921 $958 $1,046 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 SLIGHTLY POSITIVE $50,000 $65,000 $60,000 $200 $- $- 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Median House Price Income QLD HH Income Cairns 12
MEDIAN PRICE V. RENT $450,000 $450 $410,000 $405,000 $415,000 $400,000 $350,000 $360,000 $357,750 $325 $338 $370,000 $350 $390,973 $358 $371 $362 $380 $400 $350 $300,000 $285 $290 $300 $300 $266 $270 $250,000 $250 $225,000 $253 $212,000 $215,000 $225,000 $230,000 $235,000 $250 SLIGHTLY POSITIVE $200,000 $200 $150,000 $150 $100,000 $100 $50,000 $50 $- $- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Median House Price Median Unit Price Median Rent House Median Rent Unit 13
POPULATION 4.0% 3.78% 4.0% 3.54% 3.34% 3.22% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.19% 2.04% 2.04% 1.85% SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE 2.0% 1.56% 1.88% 1.82% 1.40% 1.60% 1.84% 1.65% 1.55% 1.38% 1.22% 1.0% 1.03% 0.91% 1.0% 0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Cairns National 14
POPULATION PYRAMID Age in years Males 85 + 80-84 Females 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 4 3 2 1 0 0 1 2 3 4 % of males % of females Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Census of Population and Housing, 2016 (Usual residence data) Compiled and presented in profile.id by.id, the population experts. Cairns Queensland 15
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 10.0% 9.2% 9.0% 8.0% 7.9% 8.3% 8.1% 7.9% 8.6% 7.1% 7.0% 6.7% 6.9% 6.8% 6.4% 6.9% 6.0% 5.3% 5.2% 5.1% 5.9% POSITIVE 5.0% 4.4% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Cairns QLD Australia 16
JOB CREATION INDEX 250 200 150 SLIGHTLY POSITIVE 100 50 0 Oct 2010 Dec 2010 Feb 2011 Apr 2011 Jun 2011 Aug 2011 Oct 2011 Dec 2011 Feb 2012 Apr 2012 Jun 2012 Aug 2012 Oct 2012 Dec 2012 Feb 2013 Apr 2013 Jun 2013 Aug 2013 Oct 2013 Dec 2013 Feb 2014 Apr 2014 Jun 2014 Aug 2014 Oct 2014 Dec 2014 Feb 2015 Apr 2015 Jun 2015 Aug 2015 Oct 2015 Dec 2015 Feb 2016 Apr 2016 Jun 2016 Aug 2016 Oct 2016 Dec 2016 Feb 2017 Apr 2017 Jun 2017 Aug 2017 Oct 2017 17
PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE SPENDING $700,000,000 $4,500 $4,117 $600,000,000 $4,000 $3,500 $500,000,000 $3,000 POSITIVE $400,000,000 $2,449 $2,236 $2,509 $2,500 $300,000,000 $1,993 $2,067 $666,625,714 $2,000 $1,500 $200,000,000 $1,116 $312,785,714 $328,304,762 $392,485,714 $362,052,381 $406,280,714 $1,000 $100,000,000 $629 $172,000,000 $500 $95,000,000 $- $- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Spending Per Person 18
AIRPORT ARRIVALS $450,000 2,500,000 $415,000 $400,000 $390,973 $405,000 $362,500 $371,000 $370,000 $350,000 $365,000 $360,000 2,000,000 $320,000 $300,000 $280,000 $250,000 $252,000 1,500,000 POSITIVE $200,000 $193,000 $150,000 $140,000 $128,000 $120,000 $114,500 $159,000 $157,000 $148,750 $154,500 $150,000 $148,500 $150,000 $165,000 1,000,000 $100,000 $74,000 $100,000 $109,000 500,000 $64,000 $50,000 $- 0 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Domestic Arrivals International Arrivals Median House Price 19
CRUISE SHIP ARRIVALS $450,000 70 $410,000 $405,000 $415,000 $400,000 $365,000 $369,000 $362,500 $371,000 $360,000 $357,750 $370,000 $390,973 60 60 $350,000 $320,000 53 50 $300,000 $280,000 42 $250,000 36 39 40 POSITIVE $200,000 27 29 31 32 28 31 30 $150,000 22 23 20 $100,000 14 $50,000 10 $- 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Median House Price Cruise Ship Arrivals 20
DWELLING SALES 9,000 8,000 7,909 7,000 6,734 6,653 6,000 6,099 6,235 5,000 SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE 4,000 4,008 4,283 3,857 4,099 4,174 3,894 3,000 3,194 2,757 3,011 2,960 2,000 1,000-2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Houses Units Total 21
DWELLING APPROVALS 3,000 2,553 2,500 2,176 2,077 2,000 1,570 POSITIVE 1,500 1,303 1,347 1,000 972 803 790 634 669 585 500 439 414 461 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Houses Units Total 22
BEDROOM APPROVALS V. POPULATION CHANGE 6,000 4,000 5,000 3,540 5,152 3,500 4,559 3,000 4,000 2,500 NEUTRAL 3,081 2,981 3,000 2,843 1,878 2,000 2,000 1,178 1,320 2,049 832 1,919 898 1,450 1,647 948 1,264 1,500 1,000 1,000 490 520 500 0 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Lot Registrations x 2 (Avg HH Size) Population Change 23
VACANCY RATE V. MEDIAN RENT $400 4.6% $371 $375 $380 5.0% $350 4.4% $338 $350 $358 4.5% $300 3.9% $325 $285 $288 $300 4.0% $250 $250 3.1% $253 $266 $270 3.5% 3.0% POSITIVE 2.6% $200 2.4% 2.5% $150 1.9% 2.0% 1.7% 1.8% 1.5% $100 1.3% 1.0% $50 0.5% $- 0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 House Rent (3 Bed) Unit Rent (2 Bed) Vacancy Rate 24
STOCK ON MARKET 10,000 9,000 8,850 8,700 8,610 8,000 7,900 7,000 6,458 6,700 6,600 6,500 6,996 6,000 SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE 5,000 4,000 3,800 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 25
YIELD 8.0% $450,000 $410,000 $405,000 $415,000 7.0% 6.0% $360,000 5.8% $357,750 6.2% $370,000 6.4% $390,973 6.2% 6.4% 6.4% 6.8% $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 5.0% 4.7% 4.9% 4.9% 4.8% 4.7% 4.6% 4.8% $250,000 POSITIVE 4.0% $225,000 $212,000 $215,000 $225,000 $230,000 $235,000 $230,000 $200,000 3.0% $150,000 2.0% $100,000 1.0% $50,000 0% $- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Yield House Yield Unit Median House Price Median Unit Price 26
LONG TERM PERFORMANCE 8% 7.26% 6% 4.70% 4% 3.01% POSITIVE 3% 1.29% 1.61% 1.64% 2.01% 0.74% 0% LT (1980) 10Yr 7Yr 5Yr 3Yr -1.22% -2% -2.21% -4% Houses Units 27
HOUSE V. UNIT PRICE MOVEMENTS $450,000 180% $400,000 $350,000 156% $371,000 $370,000 $369,000 $360,000 $365,000 $362,500 $357,750 $410,000 $415,000 $405,000 $390,973 160% 140% $300,000 135% 128% $320,000 $280,000 120% POSITIVE $250,000 98% 97% $252,000 100% 97% 89% 86% $200,000 83% 81% 78% 77% 76% 78% 85% 74% 73% 74% $193,000 70% 80% 72% 72% 73% 77% 72% 80% $150,000 74% 69% $159,000 $165,000 71% 71% 68%68% 63% $157,000 $150,000$148,500 $146,000 59% 56% 58% $140,000 $154,500 $148,750 $150,000 58% $128,000 58% $120,000 55% 60% $109,000 $100,000 $100,000 $114,500 40% $74,000 $64,000 $46,750 $59,000 $50,000 $39,000 $49,300 20% $53,000 $31,000 $- 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 0% Median House Price Median Unit Price % Difference Between House & Unit Price (Avg 79%) 28
BRISBANE V. CAIRNS PRICE COMPARISON 160% $600,000 140% 143% $544,200 $525,800 $514,800 120% 100% 80% 97% 107% 119% 130% $470,000 122% 121% 119% $460,000 $445,000 $435,000 112% $420,000 $428,000 $410,000 $415,000 110% 107% $419,000 $405,800 102% $390,973 107% 98% 100% $371,000 $370,000 102% $369,000 99% $366,000 $360,000 89% $362,000 $365,000 $357,750 94% 94% $326,000 89% $315,000 $307,000 $320,000 88% 87% 82% 82% $280,000 81% 83% 84% 83% 83% 80% 77% 76% $252,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 POSITIVE 60% $235,000 40% 20% $193,000 $150,000 $159,000 $146,000$185,000 $154,500 $148,750 $157,000 $148,500 $165,000 $140,000 $150,000 $160,000 $128,000 $120,000 $145,000 $114,500 $109,000 $130,000 $130,000 $139,000 $155,000 $100,000 $112,000 $127,000 $130,000 $134,000 $110,000 $74,000 $120,000 $63,000 $92,000 $59,000 $70,000 $61,100 $62,300 $59,700 $200,000 $100,000 0% $- 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Brisbane Median Cairns Median % Difference (Avg 98%) 29
SYDNEY V. CAIRNS PRICE COMPARISON 120% $1,400,000 100% $1,090,400 $1,051,000 $1,177,800 $1,200,000 $1,000,000 79% 80% 76% 75% 72% 74% 70% 66% 68% 69% $812,900 68% 66% 64% $800,000 62% 62% 61% 61% 59% $694,000 60% 55% 55% 55% 53% 53% 56% 50% $649,000 $629,000 48% $552,000 $646,700 $546,000 $600,000 $519,000 $528,000$532,000 43% $551,000 41% $526,000 46% 39% 37% 37% 40% 37% 35% $452,000 $369,000 $371,000 $390,973 $400,000 $364,000 $365,000 $370,000$410,000 $362,500 $357,750 $415,000 $337,000 $320,000 $360,000 $405,800 $296,000 $280,000 $220,000$272,000 $252,000 $208,700 $241,000 20% $193,600 $213,000 $193,000 $194,700 $189,000 $200,000 $196,110 $157,000 $165,000 $184,000 $140,000 $154,500 $148,500 $150,000 $97,500 $126,500 $128,000 $159,000 $150,000 $146,000 $91,700 $99,100 $120,000 $114,500 $148,750 $74,000 $109,000 $64,000 $100,000 $59,000 0% $- 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 POSITIVE Sydney Median Cairns Median % Difference (Avg 56%) 30
PRICE COMPARISON 40% 35% 30% 27% 20% 23% 18% 21% 10% 6% 11% 0% -10% Townsville Mackay Rockhampton Toowoomba Gold Coast Sunshine Coast Brisbane -3% NEUTRAL -15% -20% -22% -20% -30% -27% -32% -40% -40% -50% Current Average 31
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