d Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized The External Environment for Developing Countries June 2009 The World Bank Development Economics Prospects Group
Industrial countries
Largest recipients of TARP funds Banks that borrowed funds under TARP Amount Borrowed ($bn) Citigroup 50 Bank of America/Merrill Lynch 45 JPMorgan Chase 25 Wells Fargo 25 Goldman Sachs 10 Morgan Stanley 10 U.S. Bancorp 6.6 Bank of New York Mellon Corp. 2.5 State Street Corp 2.5 Source: U.S. Treasury
USA
Retail sales in U.S. weaken after initial rebound U.S. retail sales values, index, Aug. 2009=100 Total retail sales Motor vehicles and parts Source: Thomson/Datastream, Commerce Department.
Core inflation falling Japanese consumer prices, year-over-year percent change Headline inflation Core inflation Source: Thomson/Datastream, OECD.
ECB interest rate and Inflation Eurozone consumer prices, year-over-year percent change Headline inflation ECB Interest rate Core inflation Source: Thomson/Datastream, OECD.
Japanese exports to China In Billion Yen Exports to China (RHS) Total exports, excluding China (lhs) Source: Thomson/Datastream
Unemployment close to 2003 Level Percentage of labor force 5.5 Unemployment rate 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 Jan-00 Jul-01 Jan-03 Jul-04 Jan-06 Jul-07 Jan-09 Source: Thomson/Datastream
Euro Area Q1- Sharply lower as stock building turns negative growth of real GDP, and contributions to growth in percentage points Stocks Government Consumption Investment Net Exports Source: Eurostat
Leading indicators for Europe lag those for the OECD OECD composite leading indicators OECD Germany Source: Thomson/Datastream, OECD.
Retail sales in U.S. weaken after initial rebound U.S. retail sales values, index, Aug. 2009=100 Total retail sales Motor vehicles and parts Source: Thomson/Datastream, Commerce Department.
Japanese Industrial Production Volume Index, 2005 = 100 120 110 Industrial Production 100 90 80 70 60 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 Source: Thomson/Datastream
European unemployment begins to pick up quickly on soft economy number of unemploymed (millions) [L], unemployment rate (%) [R] Unemployment rate [R] # of unemployed [L] Source: Eurostat.
German factory orders moving towards a bottom in February? factory orders, domestic and export, ch% saar domestic orders Total export orders Source: Bundesbank.
Industrial production
OECD industrial production down 34% in February (saar) industrial output, ch% (3m/3m saar) Developing countries High-income OECD countries Source: Thomson/Datastream, DECPG.
Continued declines across emerging markets (EAP an exception) industrial production ch% (3m/3m saar) East Asia Latin America South Asia Europe and Central Asia Source: Thomson/Datastream, DECPG.
NIEs and Thailand record positve monthly IP gains industrial production ch% (m/m seasonally adjusted) Thailand Korea Hong Kong (SAR, China) Source: Thomson/Datastream, DECPG.
International trade
Pace of decline in trade is easing on a momentum basis goods exports, nominal, qtr/qtr ch% (saar) Developing Countries Source: Thomson/Datastream
Oil prices
$/bbl Crude oil prices rise on OPEC production cuts OPEC Production [R] mb/d Oil price [L scale] Source: IEA and DECPG Commodities Group.
World Oil Consumption Growth (mb/d y/y) OECD Non-OECD Source: IEA and DECPG Commodities Group.
M bbl U.S. crude oil stocks rise on weak demand 5-year high-low ranges Source: U.S. Dept Energy and DECPG Commodities Group.
Non-oil commodity prices
(2000=100) Food prices decline in March on weak demand Source: DECPG Commodities Group.
$/ton Copper prices rebound on falling stocks Copper price 000 tons LME stocks Source: LME and DECPG Commodities Group.
Consumption Growth (% y/y) Aluminum Copper Crude Oil World China World China World China 2002-06 7.5 19.9 3.0 9.6 2.0 9.1 average 2007 10.4 42.8 6.6 34.6 1.2 4.6 1H08 5.6 15.9 0.1 7.4 0.9 5.0 2H08-6.0-4.7-3.5 1.8-1.5 3.6 1Q09-20.3-10.4-17.6 0.4-3.7-3.5 Source: DECPG Commodities Group.
International Finance
Capital flows down by two-thirds from first-quarter 2008 levels Gross capital flows to emerging markets $ billion 2007 2008 2009 Q1 Total Q1 Total Jan Feb Mar Q1 Total 156 652 103 389 23 8 9 40 Bonds 58 146 12 65 9 7 2 18 Banks 72 312 71 257 8 1 5 13 Equity 26 194 20 68 6 1 2 8 Lat. America 42 156 19 90 9 3 4 17 Bonds 20 45 5 20 5 3 2 10 E. Europe 79 247 36 157 5 1 0 5 Bonds 27 64 2 35 2 1 0 3 Asia 24 188 38 98 8 4 2 14 Bonds 8 23 3 7 2 3 0 5 Others 11 61 11 44 0 1 2 3 Source: DECPG Finance Team.
Strong returns to EM equities in 2009 Total returns yr to date in local currency, % MSCI Developed MSCI EM MSCI BRIC EM BIG Developed HY bond *as of April 17th Source: Morgan-Stanley through Thomson/Datastream
Volume of EM IPOs has come to a standstill since September 2008 capital raised ($bn) [L], number of deals [R] Capital raised [L] # of deals [R] Source: Dealogic
Currencies
Focus
The External Environment for Developing Countries April 2009 The World Bank Development Economics Prospects Group