Investment Update UK Institutional Funds April 2018 This communication is intended for investment professionals only and must not be relied on by anyone else. After some deceleration in global activity into the spring, prospects for the world economy look rather good for the rest of this year and into 2019. Business surveys have eased back in recent weeks, but are still at solid levels on a historical basis. Positive drivers include lower unemployment in many countries, supporting consumer spending, while healthier banking systems and more upbeat business confidence are encouraging companies to invest. In addition, US tax cuts and spending increases will materially boost US economic growth. Although central banks are raising interest rates (in the US and UK) or withdrawing some monetary support (in Europe and China) they are doing so gradually. There are potential problems ahead, however, noticeably whether lowlevel trade conflicts between the US and China turn into something more serious. Against this backdrop, the outlook for corporate profits is favourable. As long as central bank tightening remains moderate, then a pro-risk approach is indicated. The House View is overweight in most equity markets. Exceptions involve developed Asia, given concerns about the potential extent of China s slowdown, and the UK, where political uncertainty is undermining business profitability. Fixed income markets are responding to mixed signals about the pace of economic growth but also some signs of higher inflation in the US, even if it looks contained in other major economies. Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve has indicated that it will tighten monetary policy steadily. Some investors are also considering the ECB ending quantitative easing (in 2018) and even raising interest rates (in 2019). Our portfolios are underweight in most government bond markets, except some European peripheral markets. Even with expected rate increases, we prefer some high-yielding bond markets and inflationlinked bonds as a precaution against any inflation surge. Within commercial real estate, we have taken steps to neutralise our positions across all the major regions. Although global property remains an attractive asset class in a world of moderate growth, valuations mean that the bulk of future returns should come from rents. We maintain a small overweight position in European ex-uk REITs, as the region should benefit as the domestic economic growth environment improves. Generally, we prefer offices and logistics to the retail sector, which remains under structural pressure from the rise of e-commerce. Among the major currencies, we hold a small overweight position in the Japanese yen, are neutral in the euro and the US dollar, and favour a small underweight position in sterling. This partly reflects cross-border capital flows, partly valuation measures, and partly to act as a diversifier. For example, the yen usually benefits when investor uncertainty falls and provides protection due to its characteristics as a longer duration asset. Pension Managed Fund Standard Life Multi Asset Managed (20-60% Shares) Pension Fund Fund % Fund % UK Equities 28.2 UK Equities 26.4 European Equities 15.8 UK Fixed Interest 17.8 North American Equities 18.9 Overseas Bonds 17.6 UK Fixed Interest 6.7 European Equities 8.0 Overseas Bonds 8.5 North American Equities 8.1 Pacific Basin Equities 2.9 Pacific Basin Equities 2.1 Japanese Equities 5.7 Japanese Equities 4.5 Property 2.4 Property 1.5 Emerging Market 4.3 Index Linked 2.6 Index Linked 2.1 Cash & Other 11.6 Cash & Other 4.8 Pension Stock Exchange Fund Fund % UK Equities 29.1 North American Equities 18.4 European Equities 15.5 UK Fixed Interest 7.0 Overseas Bonds 9.4 Pacific Basin equities 3.0 Japanese Equities 7.0 Emerging Market 4.5 Index Linked 2.1 Cash & Other 4.1
Investment Indices* - Annual growth up to 01/04/2018 Over last 12 months % Over last 3 years % (p.a.) Over last 5 years % (p.a.) FTSE All World ex UK Index 3.1 11.3 12.1 FTSE All Share Index 1.2 5.9 6.6 S&P 500 Composite Index 1.6 12.9 15.1 FTSE World Europe ex UK Index 4.3 8.5 10.0 Tokyo SE (Topix) Index ( ) 8.2 12.2 11.9 FTSE World Asia Pacific ex Japan Index ( ) 3.9 10.3 7.3 FTSE Actuaries UK Conventional Gilts All Stocks Index** 0.5 3.4 4.2 FTSE British Government Index-Linked All Stocks Index 0.5 7.0 6.9 *Total return indices include reinvested income. **Formerly the FTSE British Government All Stocks Index. Annualised Growth All figures are gross of annual management charges. Performance figures are calculated on a gross basis over periods to 1 April 2018. Size of Fund ( 000) 1 Year % 3 Years % p.a. 5 Years % p.a. Managed Funds Managed 876,489 1.5 6.4 7.9 Stock Exchange 42,096 1.5 6.5 7.9 Multi Asset Managed (20-60% Shares) 2,622,744 1.4 5.1 6.2 Equity Funds European 624,941 3.2 7.8 9.0 Japanese 2,280,356 12.8 12.7 12.5 North American 554,533-1.5 10.9 14.9 UK Equity 2,133,461 0.7 5.6 7.0 Overseas 78,050-0.4 8.0 10.7 Pacific Basin 708,056 10.4 10.6 9.5 Global Equity 60/40 6,105 1.1 8.5 9.7 Global Equity 50/50 1,326,978 0.1 6.8 8.9 Bonds Funds UK Mixed Bond 81,678 1.2 3.7 4.9 Global Mixed Bond 2,155,944-4.5 4.5 2.9 Long Corporate Bond 549,312 2.2 5.1 7.1 Long Bond 30,736 2.2 5.9 7.9 Gilt 1,349,188 0.5 3.2 4.1 Corporate Bond 3,183,377 1.8 4.2 5.7 Index-Linked 724,086 0.9 8.0 7.9 Specialist Funds Global Absolute Return Strategies 12,690,557 1.7-0.1 2.9 Annuity Purchase*** 673,349-1.3 3.1 4.6 Ethical 668,464 7.2 8.2 9.1 Pooled Property* 3,141,650 9.3 4.7 8.6 Long Lease Property 2,164,649 11.0 8.6 9.6 Money Market (formerly the Sterling Fund) 979,389 0.5 0.7 0.7 Deposit & Treasury (formerly the Managed Cash Fund) 731,572 0.3 0.4 0.4 Tracker Funds** Overseas Equity Tracker 561,852 1.3 10.8 12.5 Global Equity Tracker 654,932 1.4 8.4 9.6 Source: Standard Life Investments *This data is only available on a calendar quarter basis (31 March, 30 June, 30 September & 31 December). Please note that the Fund returns are all now shown on a net of fees basis. All constituents of the AREF/IPD UK Pooled Property Fund Index are now reporting on a consistent basis. **On 2 April 2012, Standard Life announced the appointment of Vanguard Asset Management Limited to manage their tracker funds. The appointment follows the decision by Standard Life Investments to close its OEIC tracker sub funds in order to focus on active fund management. The fund names, fund management charges and risk profiles will remain the same. The transfer of the underlying investments was finalised on 29 June 2012. *** No data available for this fund as it is currently under re-structure/strategy change process.
House View - 1 April 2018 Risk The Global Investment Group remains focused on a pro-cyclical stance favouring risk assets. However, as valuations have become more extended and the economic cycle has matured, portfolios have sought diversification in specific asset classes. Government Bonds UK Gilts Neutral The outlook for interest rates remains mixed while the economy faces both higher inflation and slower economic activity, complicated by Brexit negotiations. US Treasuries Underweight Bonds have priced in most, but not all, the expected interest rate increases. Therefore, bonds should sell off moderately unless there is a major deterioration in inflation. European Bonds Neutral While the economy is expanding steadily, the ECB has signalled a slow approach to tapering bond purchases against a backdrop of muted inflation. Japanese Bonds Underweight Our portfolios are funding other risk positions out of Japanese bonds, reflecting the market with the lowest yield yet strict yield curve control from the Bank of Japan. Global Inflation Linked Debt Overweight This asset class provides both downside protection against any risk-off moves as well as a degree of protection against any future inflation increase. Global Emerging Market Debt Overweight Local currency yields are more attractive due to emerging markets sensitivity to the pick-up in global growth, improvements in the balance of payments and attractive spreads to global government bonds. Corporate Bonds Investment Grade Underweight QE supports UK bonds, but it has driven European yields to unattractive levels. US credit spreads are now tight and provide little protection should Treasury yields increase. High Yield Debt Overweight US yields are attractive and the asset class can deliver a positive total return even with moderate spread widening. European spreads are approaching their pre-crisis lows. Equities UK Equities Underweight UK economic growth expectations are weakening and Brexit remains a longer-term threat. Companies with relatively modest growth prospects dominate the FTSE 100 Index. US Equities Overweight Improving company profits and proposed tax cuts support the market, with attractive opportunities among the technology and financial sectors, for example. European Equities Overweight Corporate earnings are improving following a widespread pick-up in economic growth across the region and stronger international trade flows. Euro appreciation continues to restrain interest in European stocks. Japanese Equities Overweight The market looks attractive as easy monetary policy and fiscal stimulus are helped by efforts to improve corporate governance, share buybacks and business investment. However, yen strength periodically remains a concern. Developed Asian Equities Neutral The improvement in the global economy supports this market, but Chinese policy tightening risks curbing fixed asset investment and property demand, which is a large driver for the region. Emerging Market Equities Overweight Global growth improvements, especially for key sectors such as Asian technology, support the asset class. A tightening bias in China may prove to be a headwind. Real Estate UK - Neutral The UK real estate cycle is at a mature stage and expectations of further capital growth are limited. Income remains attractive, although risks are elevated should conditions turn recessionary or political uncertainty grows. Europe Overweight Stronger economic growth and low levels of new supply support European property. The ECB s policy stance also supports valuations. North America - Neutral The US market has low vacancies across most sectors and markets, although the sizeable retail sector is coming under more pressure. Asia Pacific Neutral An attractive yield margin remains, but yields have bottomed in most markets. Income returns are driven by modest rental growth on the back of low vacancies and healthy tenant demand.
Other Assets Foreign Exchange Overweight, Neutral $,, Underweight The major currencies are within normal valuation ranges. We currently only favour the yen, which can act as a diversifier against the risk of a decline in global activity. Global Commodities Neutral While the slow improvement in global growth supports commodities, they are very sensitive to Chinese policy tightening and some commodities, such as oil, face an uncertain demand/supply balance. Cash Cash Underweight With global yields still extremely low, we still see better opportunities in risk assets.
Important Information Growth figures for Investment Indices include reinvested income, and are expressed in sterling. For comparison purposes these figures do not allow for any taxes, charges and dealing costs. The FTSE All-Share Index, FTSE All-Share Index and FTSE World Europe ex UK Index are calculated solely by FTSE International Limited. FTSE International Limited does not sponsor, endorse or promote this product. All copyright in the index values and constituent list vests in FTSE International Limited. Standard Life Investments Limited has obtained full licence from FTSE International Limited to use such copyright in the creation of this product. FTSE, FT-SE and Footsie are trade marks of Exchange and FT and are used by FTSE International Limited under licence. FTSE All-Share is a trade mark of FTSE. Cash and Other for example, may include bank and building society deposits, other money market instruments such as Certificates of Deposits (CDs), Floating Rate Notes (FRNs) including Asset Backed Securities (ABSs) and allowances for tax, dividends and interest due if appropriate. Past Performance is not a guide to future performance. The price of shares and the income from them may go down as well as up and cannot be guaranteed; an investor may receive back less than their original investment. These funds may only be accessed through policies issued by Standard Life Assurance Limited. To find out more about our funds visit our website aberdeenstandard.com. Alternatively, please speak to your usual contact at Standard Life Investments. www.aberdeenstandard.com *Any data contained herein which is attributed to a third party ( Third Party Data ) is the property of (a) third party supplier(s) (the Owner ) and is licensed for use by Standard Life Aberdeen**. Third Party Data may not be copied or distributed. Third Party Data is provided as is and is not warranted to be accurate, complete or timely. To the extent permitted by applicable law, none of the Owner, Standard Life Aberdeen** or any other third party (including any third party involved in providing and/or compiling Third Party Data) shall have any liability for Third Party Data or for any use made of Third Party Data. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Neither the Owner nor any other third party sponsors, endorses or promotes the fund or product to which Third Party Data relates. **Standard Life Aberdeen means the relevant member of the Standard Life Aberdeen group, being Standard Life Aberdeen plc together with its subsidiaries, subsidiary undertakings and associated companies (whether direct or indirect) from time to time. FTSE, FT-SE, Footsie, [ FTSE4Good and techmark] are trade marks jointly owned by the London Stock Exchange Plc and The Financial Times Limited and are used by FTSE International Limited ( FTSE ) under licence. [ All-World, All- Share and All-Small are trade marks of FTSE.] The Fund is not in any way sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by FTSE International Limited ( FTSE ), by the London Stock Exchange Plc (the Exchange ), Euronext N.V. ( Euronext ), The Financial Times Limited ( FT ), European Public Real Estate Association ( EPRA ) or the National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts ( NAREIT ) (together the Licensor Parties ) and none of the Licensor Parties make any warranty or representation whatsoever, expressly or impliedly, either as to the results to be obtained from the use of the FTSE EPRA NAREIT Developed Index (the Index ) and/or the figure at which the said Index stands at any particular time on any particular day or otherwise. The Index is compiled and calculated by FTSE. However, none of the Licensor Parties shall be liable (whether in negligence or otherwise) to any person for any error in the Index and none of the Licensor Parties shall be under any obligation to advise any person of any error therein. FTSE is a trade mark of the Exchange and the FT, NAREIT is a trade mark of the National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts and EPRA is a trade mark of EPRA and all are used by FTSE under licence. Standard Life Investments Limited is registered in Scotland (SC123321) at 1 George Street, Edinburgh EH2 2LL. Standard Life Investments Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Calls may be monitored and/or recorded to protect both you and us and help with our training. www.aberdeenstandard.com 2018 Standard Life Aberdeen, images reproduced under licence