The role of inflation-linked bonds September 2004
Table of contents Who we are & our experience Inflation linked bonds: characteristics Performance and risks Applications in a portfolio Simulations and track record 2 Global Iinflation linked bonds Commercial information - Non-contractual document
Sinopia Asset Management HSBC Asset Management Services Recognised within the HSBC Group as the specialist vehicle for quantitative asset management and structured products HSBC Group HSBC Asset Management Services USD 199.7 billion AUM * HSBC Multi Manager HSBC Asset Management Specialist Vehicles *: As of March 2004 Sinopia Quantitative & Structured Products Other Specialist Vehicles 3 Global Iinflation linked bonds Commercial information - Non-contractual document
Sinopia Asset Management Overview of Sinopia Founded in 1989 as a subsidiary of CCF (CCF was acquired by the HSBC Group in 2000) Forerunner in introducing Active Quantitative Management to Europe An international manager: 64% of our assets under management come from outside France - other European countries, Japan and Hong Kong Rapid expansion since inception - 140 staff including 12 in the region Headquartered in Paris with international subsidiaries in London, Luxembourg and Hong Kong Over USD 18.9 billion under management (as of Mar 04) 4 Global Iinflation linked bonds Commercial information - Non-contractual document
Sinopia Asset Management Assets Under Management AUM USD 18.9 billion (Mar 04) Alternative 12% Equities 12% Structured & Guaranteed products 63% Bonds 13% 5 Global Iinflation linked bonds Commercial information - Non-contractual document
Sinopia Asset Management Assets Under Management Assets Under Management by client type AUM - USD 18.9 billion (Mar 04) Assets Under Management by geographical area B2B 18% HSBC/ CCF Network 67% Asia 34% France 36% B2B2C 15% Europe [ex France] 30% 6 Global Iinflation linked bonds Commercial information - Non-contractual document
SINOPIA s experience Valuing inflation-linked bonds since 1998 Within the Euro zone, SINOPIA is a leader in inflation-linked bond management d 2000: among the first to launch a Euro zone inflation-linked bond fund - Oblig Inflation d d 2001: global inflation-linked bond positions used as performance driver in Actiprimes Obligations fund 2003: launch of a 100% global inflation-linked bond fund - Oblig Inflation World d Current inflation linked AuMs: EUR 547 million as of April 2004) 7 Global Iinflation linked bonds Commercial information - Non-contractual document
: Characteristics 8 Global Iinflation linked bonds Commercial information - Non-contractual document
Inflation-linked bonds: characteristics The only asset providing full inflation protection A simple structure with a fixed coupon and a nominal indexed on inflation 20 Flows of OATi 2.5% 25/07/2013 hypothesis: 2% annual inflation 100x(1+2%) 10 120 80 10 40 0 Source: SINOPIA Asset Management 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 0 9 Global Iinflation linked bonds Commercial information - Non-contractual document
Main Government Issuers UK Australia Canada Sweden US France Italy Greece Japan First Issue 1981 1985 1991 1994 1997 1998 2003 2003 2004 Principal guarantee No No No Since 04/99 Yes Yes Yes Yes No number of securities 10 4 4 6 11 6 2 1 1 Market size in billions USD 151 7 19 25 203 64 13 1.5 0.9 % total debt 24% 12% 5% 15% 7% 7% 1% 1% 0.02% Bid-Ask Spread (bp) 15 40 30 25 6 10 25 35 Not Liquid Selected other issuers: Country Issuers Maturities Austria Corporate 2010 Brazil Government (National Treasury Notes. From 3 months NTN1), municipal and corporate to 25 years Chile Government, municipal and corporate Up to 30 years Colombia Government, municipal and corporate Up to 10 years Denmark Mortgage banks Up to 50 years Hungary Government and corporate (telecom) Up to 4 years Iceland Government municipal and corporate Up to 40 years Ireland Government Up to 15 years Israel Government, municipal and corporate Up to 25 years Mexico Government, municipal and corporate Up to 30 years N. Zealand Government (Inflation Adjusted Bonds IABs) 2016 Norway Municipal and corporate Up to 13 years Peru Corporate Up to 5 years Portugal Government and corporate Up to 6 years S. Africa Government 2013 Spain Corporate (Utility) 2020 Sources: JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Barclays, Bloomberg 10 Global Iinflation linked bonds Commercial information - Non-contractual document
From the issuer s viewpoint: rationale Countries / corporates issue inflation-linked bonds in order to: d d d d Manage liability risk (revenues indexed to inflation) Optimise their refinancing needs by widening investor base Enhance the credibility of their policy Lessen the cost of issuance Disincentives to Issuance: d d d Potentially unlimited liabilities Mismatch with assets or revenues Exposure to index calculation risk 11 Global Iinflation linked bonds Commercial information - Non-contractual document
: Performance and Risks 12 Global Iinflation linked bonds Commercial information - Non-contractual document
Surprise: Outperformance in an inflation-free world Performance 2002 Performance 2003 Performance 2004* LT Real ILB NB ILB NB ILB NB Rate* Australia 10.0% 11.8% 3.5% 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 3.95% Canada 15.7% 10.1% 13.1% 6.7% 6.9% 1.7% 2.62% France 12.9% 11.4% 9.1% 4.5% 2.2% 2.2% 3.25% Suede 15.2% 10.3% 6.5% 4.9% 3.6% 2.7% 2.60% UK 8.4% 10.2% 6.9% 1.6% 1.8% -0.1% 2.49% US 17.6% 15.8% 8.8% 2.3% -0.2% -0.5% 2.50% *as at April 30th, 2004 - sources: Barclays, Bloomberg Inflation-linked bonds («ILB») have recently outperformed conventional («Nominal» Bonds, «NB»), in good and bad times 13 Global Iinflation linked bonds Commercial information - Non-contractual document
Real Yields are less volatile than nominal yields Nominal Rates vs Real Rates 12 10 8 6 % ILB UK NB UK Bonds volatility 6.2% 4 2 4% 0 Apr-90 Apr-91 Apr-92 Apr-93 Apr-94 Apr-95 Apr-96 Apr-97 Apr-98 Apr-99 Apr-00 Apr-01 Apr-02 Apr-03 Apr-04 From 04/90 to 04/04 - Source: Bloomberg 14 Global Iinflation linked bonds Commercial information - Non-contractual document
Real Yields are less volatile than nominal yields Nominal Rates vs. Real Rates 12 10 8 ILB US NB US 12 10 8 % ILB FR NB FR 6 4 Bonds volatility 6.9% 6 4 Bonds volatility 6% 2 3.4% 2 3% 0 0 Feb-97 Feb-98 Feb-99 Feb-00 Feb-01 Feb-02 Feb-03 Feb-04 Sep-98 Sep-99 Sep-00 Sep-01 Sep-02 Sep-03 From 04/90 to 04/04 - Source: Bloomberg 15 Global Iinflation linked bonds Commercial information - Non-contractual document
Real Yields are less volatile than nominal yields 12% Rolling 2-year Volatility: NB vs. ILB 10% 8% 6% NB US ILB US NB UK ILB UK 4% 2% 0% Sep-00 Dec-00 Mar-01 Jun-01 Sep-01 Dec-01 Mar-02 Jun-02 Sep-02 Dec-02 Mar-03 Jun-03 Sep-03 Dec-03 Mar-04 period 09/00-04/04 - sources: Citigroup & Barclays indices, Bloomberg 16 Global Iinflation linked bonds Commercial information - Non-contractual document
Low correlation Inflation-linked bonds exhibit low correlation to other bond assets ILB Citigroup ILB US ILB FR ILB UK NB US NB FR NB UK WORLD* World ILB WORLD* 1 ILB US 0.71 1 ILB FR 0.72 0.45 1 ILB UK 0.73 0.38 0.51 1 NB US 0.57 0.73 0.38 0.37 1 NB FR 0.66 0.45 0.67 0.59 0.54 1 NB UK 0.64 0.43 0.56 0.69 0.51 0.81 1 Citigroup World 0.70 0.63 0.59 0.56 0.82 0.85 0.77 1 From 09/98 to 04/04 - Sources: SINOPIA Asset Management, Bloomberg * equal weighted composite 17 Global Iinflation linked bonds Commercial information - Non-contractual document
: Applications in a Portfolio 18 Global Iinflation linked bonds Commercial information - Non-contractual document
From the buyer s viewpoint: rationale Strategic Allocations: d d To match long-term liabilities linked to inflation To reduce portfolio risk thanks to enhanced diversification Tactical Allocations: d d As a defensive asset ( shock absorber ) in times of volatile inflation As a substitute to nominal bonds ( bond picking ) What NOT to expect: d d Not a play on inflation (not in the long term) Not a hedge against real rate increases 19 Global Iinflation linked bonds Commercial information - Non-contractual document
Global inflation-linked bond strategy Strategic allocation (1) Reduce the risk of a portfolio invested in domestic bonds 9.0% 8.8% US ILB Optimal Allocation vs. US NB period 02/97-01/04 - source: Sinopia, Bloomberg Return/Risk are calculated from 10Yr Nominal/Real Rates. We assumed 7 and 10.5 as sensitivity respectively for Nominal and Real rates. ILB outperformed NB over the period. Annualized Returns 8.6% 8.4% 8.2% 8.0% 7.8% 7.6% 71% US ILB 100% US ILB 100% US NB 7.4% 7.2% 7.0% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5% 7.0% 7.5% Risk (Annualized volatility) 20 Global Iinflation linked bonds Commercial information - Non-contractual document
Global inflation-linked bond strategy Strategic allocation (2) Optimise the Sharpe ratio of a global bond portfolio to increase risk adjusted return 8.5% ILB world Optimal Allocation vs. NB World 8.0% 100% NB World From 12/92 to 01/04 - Sources: SINOPIA Asset Management, Bloomberg Return/Risk are calculated from 10Yr Nominal/Real Rates. We assumed 7 and 10.5 as sensitivity respectively for Nominal and Real rates. World universe is an equal weighted portfolio of UK, US, FR, SEK, CAD and AUD hedged in EUR. Return 7.5% 7.0% 6.5% 6.0% 49% ILB world 100% ILB World 5.5% 5.0% 4.0% 4.2% 4.4% 4.6% 4.8% 5.0% 5.2% 5.4% 5.6% Risk (Annualized volatility) 21 Global Iinflation linked bonds Commercial information - Non-contractual document
Valuation and tactical country allocation Objective: d actively manage the weighting of each inflation-linked bond market using the signals derived from our valuation models Valuation signals are determined in two-steps: d relative bond valuation model for inflation-linked bonds compared to nominal bonds d nominal bond valuation model Expected returns for each inflation-linked bond market 22 Global Iinflation linked bonds Commercial information - Non-contractual document
Inflation-linked bonds vs nominal bonds The Fisher equation Real rate (*) Saving remuneration Nominal rate (*) = Expected Inflation Purchasing power stability Break-even Inflation risk premium Uncertainty on expected inflation Inflation rate (*) market variables 23 Global Iinflation linked bonds Commercial information - Non-contractual document
UK market % 8 7 6 5 Nominal rate - real rate = Break-even Inflation 4 3 2 1 Expected long-term inflation (Consensus Forecast) Inflation Risk premium 0-1 Apr-90 Apr-91 Apr-92 Apr-93 Apr-94 Apr-95 Apr-96 Apr-97 Apr-98 Apr-99 Apr-00 Apr-01 Apr-02 Apr-03 Apr-04 Source: SINOPIA, Consensus Forecast & Bloomberg - from 04/90 to 04/04 24 Global Iinflation linked bonds Commercial information - Non-contractual document
Identifying a fair risk premium Identify an equilibrium value for the inflation-risk premium and compare it to its market value in order to detect misvaluation between inflation-linked and nominal bonds The premium consists of: d minimum level d time varying term dependent on inflation uncertainty. Future inflation s uncertainty is linked to current inflation level The fair value model is estimated on the UK market and is then extended to other markets taking into account different liquidity levels 25 Global Iinflation linked bonds Commercial information - Non-contractual document
Fair Value Model: identifying a fair risk premium Premium: d minimum level d time varying term dependent on inflation uncertainty Future inflation s uncertainty depends on its current level The Fair Value Model: d Premium t = a + b Inflation t Opportunities from comparing risk premium market value and fair value 26 Global Iinflation linked bonds Commercial information - Non-contractual document
: Simulations & Track record 27 Global Iinflation linked bonds Commercial information - Non-contractual document
Simulations of active strategies (ILBs vs. NBs) Objective: outperform a passive strategy (50% nominal bonds + 50% inflation-linked bonds) in each country Alpha (bp) Tracking-error (%) Information ratio UK Period: 04/90 12/02 181 1.7 1.1 Canada Period: 08/93 12/02 138 2.01 0.69 Sweden Period: 10/98 12/02 217 3.25 0.67 Australia Period: 10/96 12/02 58 2.02 0.28 US Period: 02/97 12/02 40 2.89 0.14 France Period: 02/97 12/02 1.82 Source: SINOPIA Asset Management. Simulated performance is no guarantee for future performance 129 0.71 28 Global Iinflation linked bonds Commercial information - Non-contractual document
Simulation of active strategy: tactical ILB allocation An investment universe consisting of developed inflation-linked bond markets: d Australia, Canada, Euro zone, Sweden, UK and US d systematically hedged against currency risk Reference portfolio is equally weighted portfolio Two alpha sources: d d active country allocation portfolio s duration adjustment 29 Global Iinflation linked bonds Commercial information - Non-contractual document
Strategy simulation Benchmark: equally weighted portfolio Monthly rebalancing Transaction costs are taken into consideration Benchmark Strategy Annualised performance 7.79% 8.94% Tilt 1.15% Tracking-error 1.31% Sharpe ratio 1.06 1.29 Information ratio 0.88 Performance attribution: d country allocation: 0.95% d duration adjustment: 0.20% From 31/10/98 to 28/02/03 - Source: SINOPIA Asset Management - Past simulated performance is no guarantee for future performance 30 Global Iinflation linked bonds Commercial information - Non-contractual document
Strategy simulation (2) 150 Overexposed duration 140 130 overexposure underexposure USD GBP USD CAD 120 110 USD FRF 100 31/10/98 31/10/99 31/10/00 31/10/01 31/10/02 Active country allocation: success rate between 52% and 71% depending on the markets From 31/10/98 to 28/02/03 - Source: SINOPIA Asset Management - Past simulated performance is no guarantee for future performance 31 Global Iinflation linked bonds Commercial information - Non-contractual document
SINOPIA s expertise in managing global inflation-linked bonds Global inflation-linked positions are used tactically in our flagship global fixed income fund This alpha source has delivered a gain of +1.02% since 2001 USD FRF GBP SEK 2001 2002 2003 Total 0.07% 0.09% - -0.03% 0.34% 0.18% 0.02% - 0.12% 0.16% 0.07% - 0.53% 0.43% 0.09% -0.03% Source: SINOPIA Asset Management - Past performance is no guarantee for future performance 32 Global Iinflation linked bonds Commercial information - Non-contractual document
Specialised funds for strategic investors Single currency ILBs (e.g. USD or EUR) Mostly invested in inflation-linked bonds or the relevant currency e.g. TIPS or OATi (80%) Active Tactical with nominal bonds on 20% of the portfolio Global ILBs Invested in global inflation-linked bond markets: USD, CAD, AUD, Euro zone, GBP and SEK Active allocation using SINOPIA s valuation signals Systematically hedged against currency risk Moderate risk 33 Global Iinflation linked bonds Commercial information - Non-contractual document
Specialised fund for strategic investors: Oblig Inflation World 108 106 104 102 100 98 96 25/04/03 25/05/03 25/06/03 25/07/03 25/08/03 25/09/03 25/10/03 25/11/03 25/12/03 25/01/04 25/02/04 25/03/04 25/04/04 25/05/04 Oblig Inflation World JPM BROAD Hedged EUR Active country allocation with inflation linked bonds From 25/04/03 to 11/06/04 - Source: SINOPIA Asset Management - Past simulated performance is no guarantee for future performance 34 Global Iinflation linked bonds Commercial information - Non-contractual document
Sinopia s Funds: Star Ranking as of 30/04/2004 Funds S&P Star Ranking S&P Category Oblig Inflation C ***** Index Linked Bonds Digit Inflation C ***** Index Linked Bonds Sinopia Obligation Inflat. C ***** Index Linked Bonds Past performance is no guarantee for future performance. Source Sinopia, Standard Poor's Standard Poor's Fund Services S.A.R.L. 2003 - http\\www.funds-sp.com 35 Global Iinflation linked bonds Commercial information - Non-contractual document
Oblig Inflation World Allocation as at 11 June 2004 USD 29% AUD 12% CAD 8% SEK 19% GBP 4% FRF 28% Source: SINOPIA Asset Management 36 Global Iinflation linked bonds Commercial information - Non-contractual document
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