24 January-2018
FROM CEO'S DESK The US Dollar has slumped to its lowest level since 2014. The DXY is currently at 90.02. There are reports that say Muller may question Trump on his dismissal of Comey and Flynn. Any progress in this investigation would be negative for USD. Euro zone consumer confidence came in at its highest level since 2000. Considering how strong data has been, all eyes will be on the ECB on Thursday for timeline of further trimming of asset purchases. Euro zone and US manufacturing PMI, UK Claimant count and EIA crude inventory data due today. Likely range 63.60-63.90 with down side bias. Rupee may decouple from EM and Asian peers as key domestic event looms. FPIs sold usd 39mn in debt and bought usd 242mn in equity on Monday. Asian currencies are 0.2-0.3% stronger against USD. Asian equities are trading with modest cuts. Importers are advised to wait with the stoploss of 63.90 levels. Exporters are advised to book long term forwards at current levels. CURRENCY USDINR EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY COMMENTS The Indian rupee opened higher against US dollar as (FIIs) continued to buy in local equity and debt market. So far this year, FIIs have bought a combined $2 billion in equity and debt. Yesterday's rally in Euro was triggered by release of upbeat euro zone consumer confidence which came out in New York morning. Further, market is expecting hawkish ECB tomorrow. Pound jumped above 1.4030 levels n the back of stronger data. Today s job growth should be decent according to the manufacturing and construction PMIs but the real test is wage growth. The USD/JPY fell below 110.00 for the first time since September, tracking the broad-based USD weakness in Asia as Treasury yields have backed-off from multi-year highs. INTRADAY OUTLOOK BEARISH 63.60-63.90 BULLISH 1.2270-1.2380 BULLISH 1.3940-1.4100 BEARISH 109.50-110.50 COMMODITIES/DI GOLD SILVER WTI CRUDE DOLLAR INDEX INFLOWS (23/01/2018) EQUITY DEBT TOTAL * Figures are in Rs. Crores LAST CHANGE % CHANGE REGION GLOBAL INDICES LAST CHANGE % CHANGE $1,341 0.24 0.02% HANG SENG 32,840-88.2-0.27% $17.04 0.00 0.01% ASIA KOSPI 2,538 1.49 0.06% $64.46-0.01-0.02% NIKKEI 23,973-151.15-0.63% 89.97-0.15-0.17% SENSEX 36,161 21.64 0.06% INDIA NIFTY 11,090 11.30 0.06% PURCHASE SELL NET CAC 5,535-6.73-0.12% 6986 5442 1544 EUROPEAN DAX 13,559 95.91 0.71% 919 1169-250 FTSE 7,731 16.39 0.21% 7905 6611 1294 DOW 26,210-3.79-0.01% US NASDAQ 7,460 52.26 0.71%
-21.55 COUNTRY TIME (IST) MAJOR GLOBAL EVENT ACTUAL FORECAST PREVIOUS IMPACT ON FX 1/23/2018 JPY 8.44 PM BOJ policy rate -0.10% -0.10% -0.10% MIXED 1/24/2018 GBP 3.00 PM Average Earnings Index 3m/y 2.50% 2.50% CENTRAL BANKS INTEREST RATES LIBOR RATES ON 1M 3M 6M 1Y CENTRAL BANK RATES NEXT MEETING USD 1.44 1.56 1.75 1.93 2.22 RBI 6.00% February 7, 2018 EUR -0.44-0.40-0.38-0.33-0.26 FED 1.50% January 30, 2018 GBP 0.47 0.50 0.53 0.58 0.78 ECB 0.00% January 25, 2018 JPY 0.04-0.04-0.04 0.02 0.11 BOE BOJ RBA 0.50% -0.10% 1.50% February 8, 2018 March 8, 2018 February 6, 2018 INDIA'S KEY RATES 10 YEAR LAST CARRY AGAINST USD REPO RATE 6.00% REVERSE REPO 5.75% TRADE INFLATION 5.21% CRR 4.00% INDIA 7.41% INR 4.50% GDP (Q/Q) 6.30% SLR 19.50% US 2.62% EUR 1.50% IIP 8.40% GBP 1.00% JPY -1.60%
OTHER MAJOR NEWS * Asian equities rally pauses as US dollar hits 3-year low * India s Modi Says Protectionism Is Hurting Global Trade * Euro zone January consumer confidence jumps to 17-year high CHART OF THE DAY - USDCAD SPOT RATE- 1.2408 TECHNICAL OBSERVATION Technically, USDCAD is trapped in a symmetrical triangle pattern. Currently it is trading near support zone of 1.2400 levels. Breakout below this levels could lead the market to further downside and we may even see 1.2355-1.2320 levels in the near term. INTRADAY BIAS BEARISH 1.2434-1.2370 CURRENCY SHORT TERM MEDIUM TERM OUTLOOK (3 MONTHS) (6 MONTHS) OUTLOOK USDINR 63.00-65.00 BEARISH 63.00-66.00 BEARISH $ INDEX 89.00-93.00 BEARISH 88.30-94.20 BEARISH EURUSD 1.1850-1.2400 BULLISH 1.1700-1.2550 BULLISH GBPUSD 1.3400-1.4000 BULLISH 1.3300-1.4200 BULLISH USDJPY 109.50-113.70 BEARISH 107.50-114.60 BEARISH AUDUSD 0.7730-0.8080 BULLISH 0.7500-0.8120 BULLISH USDCAD 1.2150-1.2950 BEARISH 1.2050-1.2950 BEARISH GOLD $1280-$1370 BULLISH $1230 - $1420 BULLISH
CURRENCY TECHNICAL CHART
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