05-JULY-2017 FROM CEO'S DESK Overnight there has been some cool off in USD strength across the board ahead of the crucial June FOMC policy meeting minutes (meet where Fed hiked rates by 25bps and outlined plan for balance sheet trimming). US May Durable goods data and Eurozone May Retail sales other data due today. Asian currencies are trading stronger against USD. Asian stocks mixed. Shanghai Composite and Nikkei lower. US 10yr has retraced to 2.32% and DXY to 96.08. CNY fix marginally higher at 6.7922. FPI sold net USD 228 mn in debt and USD 138mn in equity on Monday. Today, USDINR is likely to trade in the range of 64.63-64.88 band. CURRENCY USDINR EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY COMMENTS Today, USD/INR opens lower as dollar broadly flat to lower ahead of Fed minutes, due later today in NY session. However, downside is likely to remain limited upto 64.63 levels. The EUR/USD pair jumped back on the bid in the Asian trades after 3 days of fall, as the USD recovery stalled amid repositioning ahead of the FOMC minutes due later today. Sterling extended losses for a second consecutive day on Tuesday after a survey of Britain's construction sector showed growth cooling in June. Market awaits UK services PMI The pairextends losses for the second straight session, as the Yen continues to remain in safe haven demand on rising geo-political tensions, triggered by North Korea s missile launch INTRADAY OUTLOOK BULLISH 64.63-64.88 BULLISH 1.1300-1.1390 BULLISH 1.2860-1.2985 BEARISH 112.60-113.50 COMMODITIES/DI GOLD SILVER WTI CRUDE DOLLAR INDEX INFLOWS (4-07-2017) EQUITY DEBT * Figures are in Rs. Crores LAST CHANGE % CHANGE REGION GLOBAL INDICES LAST CHANGE % CHANGE $1,228 9.00 0.74% HANG SENG 25474 82.99 0.33% $ 16.44 0.11 0.67% ASIA KOSPI 283.83 2.05 0.72% $46.97-0.10-0.21% NIKKEI 20004-28.85-0.14% 96.16-0.06-0.06% SENSEX 31209.79-11.83-0.04% INDIA NIFTY 9615.3 3.3 0.03% PURCHASE SELL NET CAC 5174.9-20.82-0.40% 3532.61 4428.71-896.1 EUROPEAN DAX 12437.13-38.18-0.31% 242.78 1721.61-1478.83 FTSE 7357.23-19.86-0.27% US DOW 21479.27 129.65 0.60% NASDAQ 5596.96-49.96-0.89%
COUNTRY TIME MAJOR GLOBAL EVENT ACTUAL FORECAST PREVIOUS IMPACT ON FX 4/7/2017 AUD 7:00 AM RETAIL SALES 0.6% 0.2% 1.0% BULLISH AUD 10:00 AM CASH RATE 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% GBP 2:00 PM CONSTRUCTION PMI 54.8 55.0 56.0 5/7/2017 GBP 2:00 PM SERVICES PMI 53.6 53.8 USD 11:30 PM FOMC MEETING MINUTES CENTRAL BANKS INTEREST RATES LIBOR RATES ON 1M 3M 6M 1Y CENTRAL BANK RATES NEXT MEETING USD 1.17 1.22 1.30 1.46 1.75 RBI 6.25% August 2, 2017 EUR -0.43-0.40-0.37-0.31-0.19 FED 1.25% July 26, 2017 GBP 0.22 0.25 0.30 0.46 0.67 ECB 0.00% July 20, 2017 JPY 0.04-0.02 0.00 0.02 0.12 BOE BOJ RBA 0.25% -0.10% 1.50% July 13, 2017 July 20, 2017 July 4, 2017 INDIA'S KEY RATES CARRY 10 YEAR BOND YIELD LAST AGAINST USD REPO RATE 6.25% REVERSE REPO 6.00% TRADE INFLATION 2.18% CRR 4.00% INDIA 6.54% INR 4.75% GDP (Q/Q) 6.10% SLR 20.00% US 2.32% EUR 1.25% IIP 3.10% GBP 1.00% JPY -1.35% MONTH END FORWARD PREMIUM- IN RUPEES (BID RATE) MONTH 1M 2M 3M 6M 1Y 2Y 3Y 4Y 5Y 10Y USDINR 0.20 0.42 0.68 1.34 2.62 5.25 7.89 10.52 13.16 26.36 EURINR 0.38 0.71 1.12 2.26 4.59 9.41 14.40 19.53 25.61 55.73 GBPINR 0.35 0.71 1.11 2.21 4.38 8.90 13.69 18.21 23.00 50.15 JPYINR 0.28 0.54 0.85 1.74 3.47 7.27 11.35 15.62 20.14 46.84
OTHER MAJOR NEWS * North Korea says its ICBM can carry nuclear warhead, U.S. calls for global action * U.K. construction PMI pulls back from 17-month high in June * Australian dollar falls following neutral RBA message CHART OF THE DAY - AUDUSD SPOT RATE- 0.7615 TECHNICAL OBSERVATION After taking resistance above 0.77 in the last week, AUDUSD pair retraced back below 0.7600 in just 3 days. In the near term, the pair is expected to fall further upto 0.7530-0.7520 levels. On the higher side, 0.7700 is likely to act as crucial resistance levels. INTRADAY RANGE 0.7580-0.7650 [BEARISH BIAS] CURRENCY 3 MONTHS OUTLOOK 6 MONTHS OUTLOOK RANGE OUTLOOK RANGE OUTLOOK $ INDEX 95.20-99.80 NEUTRAL 94.00-102.30 BULLISH EURUSD 1.0900-1.1600 NEUTRAL 1.0750-1.1600 BEARISH GBPUSD 1.2550-1.3200 NEUTRAL 1.2350-1.3200 BEARISH USDJPY 107-115.50 BULLISH 105-118.70 BULLISH AUDUSD 0.7320-0.7750 BEARISH 0.7300-0.7840 BEARISH USDCAD 1.2950-1.3550 BEARISH 1.2900-1.3800 BULLISH
CURRENCY DAILY TECHNICAL CHART
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