European Real Estate Market

European Real Estate Market A P R I L 2 18

European Real Estate Market - April 218 The European Union MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW The stronger cyclical momentum in Europe and the positive unexpected rise of global trade are supporting the European Union (EU) economies transition from recovery to expansion. EU GDP data reported by the International Monetary Found (IMF) have grown, and according to European Commission (EC), EU economies are estimated to increase from 2.1 to 2.3% for this year. Inflation in the EU reached 1.7% in 217, and is forecasted to grow in 218. However, it is expected to slightly decrease in 219 (1.8%). If short-term economic growth exceed expectations, in the medium-term, high global asset prices could be vulnerable to a re-assessment of risks and fundamentals. The outcome of Brexit negotiations remains uncertain and geopolitical tensions/protectionist polices are main threats for EU economies. European Union GDP U.S. Dollars (Billion) (% change) 25. 2. 2.3 2.4 2.3 2. 2. 1.8 1.8 15. 1.7 1. 5.. 214 215 216 217** 218** 219** 22* 221* European Union (28) (Billions U.S. Dollars) European Union (28) (% change) * IMF forecast ** EC Winter 218 forecast Source: Duff & Phelps REAG R&D on IMF European Commission (EC) data Inflation (average consumer prices, % change) 3. 2.5 2. 1.7 1.5 1..5. 222* 2.5 2. 1.9** 2. 2. 1.7** 1.8** 1.9 1.5 1..5.2.. 215 216 217* 218* 219* 22* 221* 222* -.5 European Union (28) Advanced Economies * IMF forecast ** EC Winter 218 forecast Source: Duff & Phelps REAG R&D on IMF European Commission (EC) data 2

European Real Estate Market - April 218 The European Union REGIONAL COMPETITIVENESS According to the European Commission ( EC ), regional competitiveness is the ability of a region to offer an attractive and sustainable environment for firms and residents to live and work. The tool used for measuring and assessing the competitiveness at regional level in the EU is the Regional Competitiveness Index (RCI). The factors which determine RCI are: Basic dimension (institution, macroeconomic stability, infrastructure, health and basic education), Efficiency dimension (higher education and lifelong learning, labour market efficiency and market size) and Innovation dimension (technological readiness, business sophistication and innovation). The RCI shows a more polycentric pattern with strong capital and metropolitan regions in many parts of Europe. London and its commuting zone ranked top in 216. Capital regions tend to be the most competitive region in their Country, but there are exceptions. In the Netherlands, the capital region is ranked second, while in Italy, Lombardia, a historically highly productive region, continues to be the best. Many other German regions outperform Berlin, which may be due to its relatively short history as the capital of a reunited Germany. Rank* Country Region name Rank* Country Region name -.5-1. 1 United Kingdom 2 United Kingdom *Equal same rank is assigned to two regions if their score difference (on a -1 scale) is not above.1 1.5 1..5. Austria Belgium EU Region ranking based on RCI 216 score (EU28=) Czech Republic London and regions covered by its commuting zone Berkshire, Buckinghamshire and Oxfordshire Germany Denmark Spain Finland 254 Romania Sud-Muntenia 255 Romania Sud-Vest Oltenia 3 Netherlands Utrecht 256 Greece Ionia Nisia 4 Sweden Stockholm 257 Greece Dytiki Ellada 5 United Kingdom Surrey, East and West Sussex 258 Greece Peloponnisos 6 Denmark Hovedstaden 258 Bulgaria Severozapaden 7 Luxembourg Luxembourg 258 Greece Sterea Ellada 8 France Île de France 261 Greece 9 Germany Oberbayern 262 Romania Sud-Est 1 United Kingdom Top 1 and Bottom 1 EU regions Hampshire and Isle of Wight 262 France Guyane Source: Duff & Phelps REAG R&D on EU Regional Competitiveness Index 216 France Italy Netherlands Poland Anatoliki Makedonia, Thraki Portugal Sweden UK -1.5-2. Capital Region Other Region (max) Other Region (min) Source: Duff & Phelps REAG R&D on EU Regional Competitiveness Index 216 3

European Real Estate Market - April 218 The European Union DIGITAL ECONOMY AND SOCIETY E-shopping In the EU 66% of all age groups internet users ordered good or services online In 216, clothes & sports goods are the most popular online purchases, followed by travel/holiday accommodation, household goods and tickets for events. Less common were online purchases of food or groceries and medicine. Looking at e-shopping data using age-users criteria, it comes to light that clothes & sports are mainly ordered by millennials (aged 16 to 34 years). Booking travel and holiday accommodation online are purchased by shoppers aged 45 to 64 year (57%). Finally, the age group of 35 to 44 year old had the highest share of e-shoppers who bought household goods online (52%). E-sales According to Eurostat, in 216, 2% of EU businesses reported that they conducted e-commerce sales (e-sales) to consumers, other businesses and/or public authorities; this is a moderate increase compared with 15 % in 21. The turnover derived by e-sales amounted to 16% of the total (11% of EDI-type sales and 5% of web sales). In the EU, in 216, web sales to other business (B2B) were 12% and to consumers (B2C) were 13%. Of the 5 % of total turnover generated by web sales, 2 % came from B2C sales and 3 % from B2B sales. Average % of individuals 6% 16% 11% 5% 8% 6% 5% 4% 1% 4% -3% 3% 2% 1% % 4% 35% 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % Average percentage of individuals who ordered goods or services, over the internet, for private use in 217 and var % yoy 7% 2% 3% -28% Belgium Bulgaria Czech Republic Denmark Germany Estonia Ireland Greece Spain France Croatia Italy -4% -2% Average percentage Var % yoy (217/216) Source: Duff & Phelps REAG R&D on Eurostat Percentage of Enterprises having received orders via computer mediated networks and related % of turnover from e-commerce (216) Belgium Bulgaria Czech Republic Denmark Germany Estonia Ireland Greece Spain France Croatia Italy Cyprus Latvia Lithuania Hungary Malta Netherlands Austria Poland Portugal Romania Slovenia Slovakia Finland Sweden United Kingdom Norway Enterprises total turnover from e-commerce Source: Duff & Phelps REAG R&D on Eurostat 3% 1% 6% 15% 7% 1% 5% 7% 3% 2% 7%2% -4% -2% Cyprus Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Hungary Malta Netherlands Austria Poland Romania Slovenia Slovakia Finland Sweden United Kingdom Norway Enterprises having received orders via computer mediated networks var % yoy (217/216) 2% 15% 1% 5% % -5% -1% -15% -2% -25% -3% -35% 4

European Real Estate Market - April 218 European Office Market INVESTMENTS VOLUME In 217, the volume of investments in the office sector increased by 5% on an annual basis. Office still remains the most attractive sector for investors, with the 43% of total investments. Strong investments were registered in Spain, Netherland, Italy and Ireland, but Germany remains the most attractive country with several deals greater than 1, m2. Billion 3 25 2 15 1 5 Investments ( billion) 213 214 215 216 217 Office Total KEY DRIVERS Management of innovative office space (smart-working) Technology will increase the demand in the main tech district Lack of supply core asset Shorter leases Efficiency, quality and flexibility V A C A N C Y On half-yearly basis, vacancy rates 14% bps 2 remained stable at 7.7%, compared to 216 which decreased by.7% across European markets. The greatest compressions were registered in Prague (-3.7%) and Barcelona (-3%). 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% -6-3 1-32 -2-4 -2-11 -23-2 -2-15 5 1-1 -2-3 % -4 Amsterdam Barcelona Berlin Birmingham Brussels Copenhagen Dublin Dusseldorf Frankfurt Hamburg Helsinki (CBD) Lisbon London Luxembourg Madrid Milan Moscow Munich Oslo Paris Prague Rome St. Petersbourg Stockholm Vienna Warsaw Zurich -9-19 7-21 1 4-5 -37-12 -11-3 -25-1 Vacancy rate (%) YOY var. (bps) 5

European Real Estate Market - April 218 European Office Market PRIME RENTS AND YIELDS In 217, average prime rents slightly increased (+3%) and average prime yields are under compression, reaching 4.2% on annual basis. For 218, this trend of rental growth and yields compression is expected to continue. MARKET HIGHLIGHTS: London: The Brexit effect represents a potential risk for investments, in particular for those related to relocation. /sqm/year 48 46 44 42 4 38 36 34 32 3 European average prime office rents and yields 213 214 215 216 217 Net prime yields (%) Prime rents ( /sqm/year) 6.% 5.% 4.% 3.% 2.% 1.%.% Milan: Remained the most dynamic Italian location. In particular CDB and Centre sub-markets registered an important take up increase. Barcelona: In line with the Spanish economic recovery, the take up of the CBD increased due to national and international investments. Paris: Take up in 217 increased by 2% and vacancy rate remained stable. On the other hand, investments saw an important decrease compared to the previous year, mainly due to a lack of mega-transaction. Rents in prime cities in Germany rose again and are expected to grow in 218 due to the operator in co-working spaces /sqm/year 1, 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Office market Amsterdam Barcelona Berlin Birmingham Brusselles Copenhagen Dublin Dusseldorf Edinburgh Frankfurt Glasgow Hamburg Helsinki Lisbon London Luxembourg Madrid Manchester Milan Moscow Munich Oslo Paris Prague Rome Stockholm Vienna Warsaw Prime rent 216 ( /sqm/year) Prime rent 217 ( /sqm/year) Net prime yield (%) 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % 6

European Real Estate Market - April 218 European Office Market 5 km 3 mi Legend: Prime rents ( /sqm/year) Prime yields (%) d-maps.com Dublin 683 Glasgow 382 5.4% 4.1% Birmingham 426 4.9% Edinburgh 419 5.4% Manchester 44 4.9% London 852 4.1% Paris 768 3.2% Oslo 451 3.7% Stockholm 645 3.5% Copenhagen Hamburg 34 368 3.8% Amsterdam 3.1% 4 3.8% Dusseldorf 373 3.5% Brussels 286 4.4% Luxembourg 586 4.3% Zurich 675 2.7% Frankfurt 4 3.1% Munich 416 3.5% Milan 52 3.6% Berlin 331 3.4% Prague 252 4.7% Wien 41 3.8% Warsaw 272 5.3% Helsinki 336 3.5% Moscow 622 1.3% Lisbon 238 4.6% Madrid 385 3.5% Barcelona 252 3.6% Rome 43 4.1% Source: Duff & Phelps REAG R&D on various data 7

European Real Estate Market Study - April 218 European Retail Market INVESTMENTS VOLUME In 217, the volume of investments in the retail sector increased by 3% over the prior year. Retail investment represents 22% of the European ones. Investor demand is expected to experience a strong recovery in 218. Billion 3 25 2 15 1 Investments ( billion) Investors are looking for core properties in the emerging markets. In 218, private consumption will increase thanks to the higher consumer confidence and the tourism growth. 5 213 214 215 Retail Total 216 217 KEY DRIVERS Growth of tourism in prime locations Population growth Digital economy Lack of supply in prime location yields 6.% 5.% 4.% 3.% 2.% European Average prime retail rents and yields rents 25 2 15 1 V A C A N C Y The strong demand in the main European markets led to a compression in vacancy rates that in 217 reached 4.7%. 1.%.% 212 213 High Street yields High Street rents 214 215 216 Shopping centre yields Shopping centre rents 217 5 8

European Real Estate Market Study - April 218 European Retail Market PRIME RENTS AND YIELDS In 217, average prime rents registered an increase of 1.2% for High Streets and 1.6% for shopping centers, respectively. Average net prime yields slightly decreased, reaching 4,1% for the High Street market and 4.9% for shopping centers Further yields compression in the main European markets is expected in 218. MARKET HIGHLIGHTS UK: Investments are dominated by the political uncertainties caused by Brexit. Nonetheless, London remains one of the most expensive cities. Italy: prime rents in the main cities are growing sustained by tourism. Market is still dominated by international player. Germany: Secondary locations are taking advantage of the lack of supply in prime areas. Rents remained stable compared to 216. France: Demand in Paris remained resilient thanks to the attractive environment and the impact of tourists. On the contrary, demand for secondary locations is weakening. Spain: Growth of tourism and economic improvements helped to maintain stable rents and yields for the High street. An increase in turnover is expected in 218. /smq/year 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 12.% 1.% 8.% 6.% 4.% 2.%.% Paris London Milan Rome Zurich Dublin Munich Vienna Frankfurt Berlin Hamburg Barcelona Madrid Amsterdam Copenhagen Moscow Glasgow Prague Oslo Helsinki Brussels Stockholm Edimburgh Manchester Birmingham Warsaw Lisbon Bucharest Bratislava Prime rent 216 ( /sqm/year) France Norway Germany Austria Belgium Czech republic Spain High Street Retail market Yield shopping centre Sweden Prime rent 217 ( /sqm/year) United Kingdom Italy Finland Poland Portugal Ireland Slovakia Net prime Yield 216 Net prime Yield 217 Net prime yield (%) 217 Hungary Romania Bulgaria Greece Russia 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % 9

European Real Estate Market Study - April 218 European Retail Market 5 km 3 mi d-maps.com Lisbon 1,44 5.% P 5.5% E 4.3% Madrid 3,18 3.2% IRL 4.9% Dublin 4,735 Glasgow 2,583 4.% 3.5% Birmingham 1,298 4.5% Barcelona 3,34 3.4% Edinburgh 1,624 4.4% Manchester 2,546 4.% UK 4.1% London 16, 2.5% Paris 19,998 2.3% F 3.5% Amsterdam B 3,48 3.% 4.1% Brussels 1,935 3.3% Zurich 17,64 3.2% N 4.1% Oslo 2,562 3.9% D 4.1% Frankfurt 3,66 3.2% Munich 4,44 2.9% Milan 13, 3.% Berlin 4,65 3.3% A 4.5% S 4.5% Stockholm 1,339 3.9% Copenhagen Hamburg 2,816 3,52 3.% 3.4% Prague 2,544 3.6% Vienna 3,66 2.9% Rome 12,5 2.9% IT 4.9% PL 5.3% Warsaw 1,68 6.5% CZ 4.7% Bratislava 516 SK 7.3% 6.% H 5.8% FIN 4.4% Helsinki 2,13 4.2% GR 8.3% RO 7.% Bucharest 564 7.5% BG 7.4% Legend: High Street prime rents ( /sqm/year) High Street Net prime yields (%) Shopping Centre net prime yield (%) Moscow 4,16 12.% RUS 9.5% 1

European Real Estate Market Study - April 218 European Logistics Market INVESTMENTS VOLUME In 217, the volume of industrial investments increased by 54% on an annual basis. The Industrial sector was the most attractive commercial real estate market in terms of investments. Industrial investments absorbed 15% of the total. Investments in this sector doubled compared to 216. UK registered the highest volume of investment. Billion 3 25 2 15 1 5 Investments ( billion) 213 214 215 216 217 Industrial and logistics Total KEY DRIVERS Warehouse spaces Drones High quality greenfield and brownfield required Build-to-suit developments Well-connected assets Digital economy V A C A N C Y Vacancy rates continued to decline in most of the major markets, reaching the lowest level in the past five years Netherlands 8% France 12% Poland 3% Spain 3% Investments by country Italy 3% Other countries 3% UK 32% Nordic countries 12% Germany 24% 11

European Real Estate Market Study - April 218 European Logistics Market PRIME RENTS AND YIELDS In 217, rents remained stable in most countries. Average net prime yields remained stable at 6%. In 218, yield compression and rental growth is expected for the main markets due to the lack of investment products. MARKET HIGHLIGHTS UK: Despite the low yields, e-commerce and positive rental growth continue to attract the investors. Italy: 217 registered a record in terms of annual volume. Demand is dominated by built-to-suite projects. Germany: Strong demand for quality space and the lack of land increased the speculative construction France: Rents and yields are stabilizing. Supply is increasing in secondary regions. Spain: 217 ended with a take up above the average of last year, but it was not recorded levels of 216. Rents are expected to grow, while yields will see a slight compression. Netherlands: The positive economic development impacted the transportation sector, which saw a sharp growth of new logistics buildings. 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Logistics market /sqm/year % Amsterdam Barcelona Berlin Birmingham Brusseles Copenhagen Dublin Dusseldorf Edinburgh Frankfurt Glasgow Hamburg Helsinki Lisbon London Madrid Manchester Milan Moscow Munich Oslo Paris Prague Rome St. Peterbourg Stockholm Wien Warsaw Prime rent 216 ( /sqm/year) Prime rent 217 ( /sqm/year) /sqm/year 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 European average prime logistics rents and yields Net prime yield (%) 213 214 215 216 217 Net prime yields (%) Prime rents ( /sqm/year) 8.% 7.% 6.% 5.% 4.% 3.% 2.% 1.%.% 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % 12

European Real Estate Market Study - April 218 European Logistics Market 5 km 3 mi d-maps.com Legend: Prime rents ( /sqm/year) Net prime yields (%) Dublin 88 Glasgow 87 6.3% 5.4% Birmingham 8 4.9% Edinburgh 85 6.% Manchester 78 5.% London 167 4.3% Paris 57 5.% Brussels 56 6.% Oslo 123 5.% Amsterdam Hamburg 65 68 5.5% 4.6% Dusseldorf 66 4.6% Frankfurt 74 4.6% Munich 81 4.6% Milan 53 6.% Copenhagen 75 6.2% Berlin 6 4.6% Stockholm 96 5.4% Prague 51 6.% Vienna 64 5.9% Warsaw 57 6.3% Helsinki 116 6.% St.Petersburg 56 12.8% Moscow 58 12.1% Lisbon 45 7.1% Madrid 65 5.9% Barcelona 76 5.9% Rome 54 6.3% 13

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