THE CNN / WMUR GRANITE STATE POLL THE UNIVERSITY OF NEW HAMPSHIRE February 6, 2007 MCCAIN & GIULIANI LEAD GOP FIELD IN NH, CLINTON EARLY FAVORITE AMONG DEMOCRATS By: Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D. UNH Survey Center 603/862-2226 www.unh.edu/survey-center DURHAM, NH Hillary Clinton is the early frontrunner among candidates in New Hampshire for the Democratic nomination for President in 2008. Among Republicans, John McCain and Rudy Giuliani are tied. These findings are based on the latest Granite State Poll,? conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. The Granite State Poll is sponsored by CNN and WMUR-TV, Manchester. Six hundred sixty-four (664) randomly selected New Hampshire likely primary voters were interviewed by telephone between February 1 and February 5, 2007. Included in the sample were 353 likely 2008 Democratic Primary voters (margin of sampling error +/- 5.2%) and 311 likely 2008 Republican Primary voters (margin of sampling error +/- 5.6%). An Historic Primary New Hampshire has held the First in the Nation Primary since 1920 and interest in the 2008 primary is especially high. Several prospective Republican and Democrat candidates have made high visibility trips to New Hampshire in recent weeks as the campaign to woo supporters and campaign workers is in full swing. And as this is the first election since 1952 that neither a sitting President nor Vice President is running for election, there have been a record number of candidates of both parties testing the water in New Hampshire. Not surprisingly, interest in the primary is quite high 41% of likely voters say they are extremely interested in the race already, 34% are very interested, 21% are somewhat interested and only 4% are not very interested or don t know. The Granite State Poll has been monitoring voter sentiment about potential candidates since February 2005. Republican Primary Among likely Republican Primary voters, Arizona Senator John McCain has consistently been the most popular, picking up where he left off in 2000. But in the most recent CNN / WMUR Granite State Poll, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani has pulled into a dead heat with McCain. Currently, 28% of likely Republican Primary voters say they will vote for McCain, 27% will vote for former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, 13% favor Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, and 9% prefer former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich. Among less popular potential candidates are Colorado Congressman Tom Tancredo (3%), Kansas Senator Sam Brownback (2%), former New York Governor George Pataki (1%), Nebraska Senator Chuck Hagel (1%), former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee (1%), Texas Congressman Ron Paul (1%), former Wisconsin Governor Tommy Thompson (1%), while 1% favor some other candidate and 13% are undecided. One of the things that makes the New Hampshire Primary unique is that undeclared voters, often called independents, can vote in either primary. Currently, undeclared voters say they plan to vote in the Democratic primary by a 68% to 32% margin. This means that the Republican primary is likely to consist of far fewer independent voters than in 2000 when McCain won handily over George W. Bush. McCain has consistently led among potential Republicans since 2005 and has hovered near 30% throughout that period. He is most popular among moderate and liberal Republicans. Giuliani has consistently been in second place with approximately 20% since 2005 and is most popular among young Republican voters. Mitt Romney has stayed in third place since 2005 and is most popular among recent arrivals to New Hampshire.? We ask that this copyrighted information be referred to as the Granite State Poll, sponsored by CNN and WMUR-TV.
50% NH Republican Presidential Primary Likely Republican Primary Voters 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Feb. '05 Apr. '05 July '05 Oct. '05 Feb. '06 Apr. '06 July '06 Sep. '06 Feb. '07 McCain Giuliani Romney Rice Gingrich Republican Favorability Ratings Giuliani, McCain, and Romney are the best known and most popular candidates among Republican primary voters. Giuliani, although he has not officially declared his candidacy, is the most popular GOP candidate with 70% of likely voters saying they have a favorable opinion of him, 14% have an unfavorable opinion, 13% are neutral, and 3% don t know enough about him to say. His net favorability rating is a very high +56%. Giuliani has high favorability ratings among most voters, but receives his highest ratings among union households, newcomers to New Hampshire, and voters who do not attend church. McCain is the second most favorable Republican candidate 59% of likely Republican primary voters have a favorable opinion of him, 27% have an unfavorable opinion, 11% are neutral, and 3% don t know enough about him to say. McCain s net favorability rating is +32%. McCain is viewed most favorably by self identified moderates and liberals and recent arrivals to NH. Romney has solid favorability ratings with 53% having a favorable opinion of him, 27% are unfavorable, 13% are neutral, and 8% don t know enough to say. Romney s net favorability rating stands at +26%. While there has been some concern about Romney s ability to attract religious voters. This does not appear to be a problem in New Hampshire as 49% of regular church goers have a favorable opinion of Romney and only 21% have an unfavorable opinion of him. Gingrich is well known, but he has significant unfavorables among Republican voters 41% have a favorable opinion of Gingrich, 42% have an unfavorable opinion of him, 12% are neutral, and 4% don t know enough to say. His net favorability rating is a very low -1%. Gingrich is viewed most favorably by Conservatives and older voters. None of the other Republican candidates are particularly well known or liked by Republican voters. Although he has visited New Hampshire several times and has been a visible GOP critic of the war in Iraq, Hagel is relatively unknown and is disliked by Republican primary voters 56% don t know anything about him and his net favorability rating is -9%. Huckabee has also visited NH several times but remains relatively unknown 59% don t know anything about him and his net favorability rating is +1%. Pataki has indicated he is dropping out of the race. While he is relatively well known (only 23% say they don t know anything about him), his net favorability rating is only +3%. Tommy Thompson is unknown to 57% of likely voters and his net favorability rating is -3%. Sixty percent of likely primary voters don t know anything about Brownback his net favorability rating is -2%. Tancredo is unknown to 66% of likely GOP primary voters and his net favorability rating is -1%. California Congressman Duncan Hunter is unknown to 69% of likely GOP primary voters and his net favorability rating is -10%. 70% of likely primary voters don t know anything about former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore his net favorability rating is -8%. Ron Paul is unknown to 73% of likely GOP primary voters his net favorability rating is -6%. Businessman John Cox is unknown to 75% of likely GOP primary voters and his net favorability rating is -8%.
Democratic Primary New York Senator Hillary Clinton has consistently been the most popular of the potential Democratic candidates. Clinton currently has the support of 35% of likely Democratic Primary voters followed by Illinois Senator Barack Obama with 21%, former North Carolina Senator John Edwards (16%), former Vice President Al Gore (8%), Delaware Senator Joe Biden (3%), retired General Wesley Clark (1%), New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson (1%), former Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack (1%), and Connecticut Senator Chris Dodd (1%), while 14% are undecided. Clinton has been near 30% for the past two years and remains the frontrunner. She gets her strongest support from lower income voters. Obama has only recently entered the race but has immediately become a significant candidate. His support is consistent among all groups. Edwards gets his strongest support from union households and 50 to 64 year old voters. Support for Clark and Biden has dropped off since 2005. 50% NH Democratic Presidential Primary Likely Democratic Primary Voters 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Feb. '05 Apr. '05 July '05 Oct. '05 Feb. '06 Apr. '06 July '06 Sep. '06 Feb. 07 Clinton Edwards Kerry Gore Biden Clark Obama Democratic Favorability Ratings The best known and most popular candidates in the Democratic primary are John Edwards, Hillary Clinton, and Barack Obama. Edwards has the highest favorability rating of any of the Democratic candidates 74% of likely Democratic Primary voters have a favorable opinion of him, 13% have an unfavorable opinion, 9% are neutral and 3% don t know enough about him to say. His net favorability rating is +61%. Edward s has broad favorability across all demographic groups. Clinton is also very popular 74% of likely Democratic primary voters have a favorable opinion of her, 15% have an unfavorable opinion, 9% are neutral, and 1% don t know enough about her to say. Her net favorability rating is +59%. Clinton has broad support but is viewed least favorably by voters who support the war in Iraq and the surge there. Obama is viewed favorably by 67% of likely Democratic primary voters, 12% view him unfavorably, 8% are neutral and 13% don t know enough about him to say. Obama s net favorability rating is +55%. He has wide support and is viewed most favorably by voters with high levels of income and education. His lowest favorability ratings come from voters with lower levels of education. Although he has not declared his candidacy, Gore is viewed favorably by 63% of likely Democratic voters, 27% view him unfavorably, 8% are neutral, and 1% don t know enough about him to say. Gore s net favorability rating is +37%. Al Sharpton is the least popular of potential Democratic candidates only 14% of likely Democratic primary voters have a favorable opinion of him, 57% have an unfavorable opinion of him, 13% are neutral, and 16% don t know enough about him to say. Sharpton s net favorability rating is a very low -43%. Clark ran for President in 2004 but has not maintained his popularity 36% have a favorable opinion of Clark, 28% have an unfavorable opinion of him, 17% are neutral, and 19% don t know enough about him to say. Clark s net favorability rating is only +8%. Biden made a serious misstep last week and this appears to have hurt his candidacy only 29% of likely Democratic
primary voters have a favorable opinion of him, 25% have an unfavorable opinion of him, 18% are neutral, and 29% don t know enough about him to say. Biden s net favorability rating is only +4%. Dodd is relatively unknown for a New England Senator only 22% of likely Democratic primary voters have a favorable opinion of Dodd, 20% have an unfavorable opinion of him, 19% are neutral, and 39% don t know enough about him to say. Dodd s net favorability rating is only +2%. And although he has made several visits to New Hampshire, Richardson is largely unknown to Democratic primary voters only 26% have a favorable opinion of him, 17% have an unfavorable opinion, 14% are neutral, and 43% don t know enough about him to say. Richardson s net favorability rating is +9%. Vilsack is also largely unknown -- only 7% of likely Democratic primary voters have a favorable opinion of him, 18% have an unfavorable opinion, 18% are neutral, and 57% don t know enough about him to say. Vilsack s net favorability rating is -11%. Dennis Kucinich is not viewed favorably by likely voters 24% have a favorable opinion of him, 31% have an unfavorable opinion of him, 12% are neutral, and 33% don t know enough about him to say. Kucinich s net favorability rating is -7%. Former Alaska Senator Mike Gravel is the least known Democratic candidate only 5% of likely Democratic primary voters have a favorable opinion of Gravel, 15% have an unfavorable opinion of him, 13% are neutral, and 67% don t know enough about him to say. Gravel s net favorability rating is -10%. Least Popular Democratic Candidate All likely primary voters (both Republicans and Democrats) were also asked which candidate they liked least. Among potential Democratic presidential candidates, Hillary Clinton is the least liked, named by 29% of all likely primary voters, followed by Sharpton (22%), Gore (7%), Kucinich (6%), Biden (4%), and Obama (4%) with 8% naming some other candidate and 22% saying they don t know. Among only likely Democratic Primary voters, Sharpton is least liked of the potential Democratic candidates, named by 28%, followed by Clinton (9%), Kucinch (9%), Biden (5%), Gore (5%), Obama (4%), Clark (3%), Edwards (2%), another candidate (4%), and 30% don t know. A summary measure of popularity can be constructed by subtracting the percentage who dislike a particular candidate from the percentage who say they plan to vote for that candidate. On this measure of net popularity, Clinton is the most popular Democratic candidate with +26%, followed by Obama (+17%), and Edwards (+14%). The least popular of the potential Democratic candidates among likely Democratic Primary voters are Sharpton (-28%), Kucinich (-8%), Clark (- 2%), and Gravel (-1%). Net Popularity of Potential Democratic Candidates Likely Democratic Primary Voters Sharpton -28% Clinton Obama Edwards Gore Dodd Vilsack Richardson Gravel -1% Clark -2% Kucinich -8% 3% 0% 0% 0% 14% 17% 26% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%
Least Popular Republican Candidate Turning to potential Republican candidates, Newt Gingrich is least liked, named by 30% of all likely primary voters (both Republicans and Democrats), followed by Romney (10%), Giuliani (7%), and McCain (7%). Among only likely Republican Primary voters, Gingrich is the least popular of the potential Republican candidates, named by 24%, followed by McCain (7%), Romney (7%), Pataki (6%), Giuliani (5%), Hagel (4%), Thompson (3%), Huckabee (2%), Cox (2%), Brownback (2%) some other candidate (2%) while 36% don t know. Looking at the net popularity of potential Republican candidates, Giuliani is most popular with a net popularity rating of +22%, followed by McCain (+21%), Romney (+6%), Tancredo (3%), Brownback (0%), Paul (0%), Hunter (-1%), Gilmore (-1%), Huckabee (-1%), Cox (-2%), Thompson (-2%), Hagel (-3%), Pataki (-4%) and Gingrich (-15%). Net Popularity of Potential Republican Candidates Likely Republican Primary Voters Gingrich -15% Giuliani McCain Romney Tancredo Brownback Paul Hunter -1% Gilmore -1% Huckabee -1% Cox -2% Thompson -2% Hagel -3% Pataki -5% 6% 3% 0% 0% 22% 21% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% Granite State Poll Methodology These findings are based on the latest Granite State Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. The Granite State Poll is sponsored by CNN and WMUR-TV, Manchester. Six hundred sixty-four (664) randomly selected New Hampshire likely primary voters were interviewed by telephone between February 1 and February 5, 2007. Included in the sample were 353 likely 2008 Democratic Primary voters (margin of sampling error +/- 5.2%) and 311 likely 2008 Republican Primary voters (margin of sampling error +/- 5.6%). Results reported for other subgroups have potential for somewhat larger variation than those for the entire population. The data have been weighted to adjust for numbers of adults and telephone lines within households, respondent sex, and region of the state. In addition to potential sampling error, all surveys have other potential sources of non-sampling error including question order effects, question wording effects, and non-response.
Democratic Nomination in 2008 NH Primary "I know it is early, but if the Democratic primary for president were held today, which of the following would you support for the Democratic nomination for president... Joe Biden Wesley Clark Hillary Clinton... Chris Dodd John Edwards... Al Gore Mike Gravel (gra-velle) Dennis Kucinich Barack Obama Bill Richardson... Al Sharpton Tom Vilsack or someone else?" ROTATE CANDIDATES Feb. 05 Apr. 05 July 05 Oct. 05 Feb. 06 Apr. 06 July 06 Sept. 06 Fe Hillary Clinton 28% 29% 27% 33% 29% 28% 30% 30% 3 Barack Obama & - - - - - - - - John Edwards 18 19 17 13 20 18 22 16 Al Gore $ - - - - - - 6 10 John Kerry 25 22 19 20 17 19 17 9 Joe Biden + - - 8 4 4 4 5 5 Dennis Kucinich & - - - - - - - - Wesley Clark 9 8 5 6 3 5 6 4 Bill Richardson 2 2 2 1 4 3 1 3 Tom Vilsack & - - - - - - - - Chris Dodd & - - - - - - - - Someone Else 6 11 6 12 18 7 5 4 Don t Know Yet 12 10 15 12 7 16 8 17 (N) (187) (178) (193) (193) (207) (228) (187) (205) (3 + Added July 2005 @ Added February 2006 $ Added July 2006 & Added February 2007 * = Less than 1% Republican Nomination in 2008 NH Primary "I know it is early, but if the Republican primary for president were held today, which of the following would you support for the Republican nomination for president... Sam Brownback John Cox Jim Gilmore Newt Gingrich Rudy Giuliani... Chuck Hagel... Mike Huckabee Duncan Hunter John McCain... George Pataki... Ron Paul Mitt Romney Tom Tancredo Tommy Thompson or someone else?" ROTATE CANDIDATES Feb. 05 Apr. 05 July 05 Oct. 05 Feb. 06 Apr 06 July 06 Sept. 06 Feb. John McCain 40% 25% 38% 28% 30% 32% 26% 32% 28 Rudolph Giuliani 22 29 23 22 22 21 18 19 2 Condoleeza Rice # - - - 16 17 15 14 10 - Mitt Romney 7 9 9 7 9 12 12 15 1 Newt Gingrich $ - - - - - - - - 9 Tom Tancredo $ - - - - - - - - 3 Sam Brownback + - 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 2 George Pataki 2 1 * * 2 2 1 1 1 Chuck Hagel + - 0 * 0 0 0 0 0 1 Mike Huckabee $ - - - - - - - - 1 Ron Paul $ - - - - - - - - 1 Tommy Thompson $ - - - - - - - - 1 Someone Else 14 24 16 12 6 4 14 8 1 Don t Know Yet 16 13 14 12 14 12 14 14 1 (N) (211) (195) (200) (196) (185) (166) (199) (205) (31 + Added April, 2005 # Added October, 2005 $ Added February 2007 * = Less than 1%
Overall Preference for Democratic Candidates Likely Democratic Primary Voters Only % Vote FOR % Like LEAST NET Popularity Hillary Clinton 35% 9% +26% Barack Obama 21 4 +17% John Edwards 16 2 +14% Al Gore 8 5 +3% Joe Biden 3 5-2% Chris Dodd 1 1 0% Bill Richardson 1 1 0% Tom Vilsack 1 1 0% Mike Gravel 0 1-1% Wesley Clark 1 3-2% Dennis Kucinich 1 9-8% Al Sharpton 0 28-28% Don t Know 14 30 (N) (352) (348) Overall Preference for Republican Candidates Likely Republican Primary Voters Only % Vote FOR % Like LEAST NET Popularity Rudolph Giuliani 27% 5% +22% John McCain 28 7 +21% Mitt Romney 13 7 +6% Tom Tancredo 3 0 3% Ron Paul 1 * 0% Sam Brownback 2 2 0% Mike Huckabee 1 2-1% Duncan Hunter 0 1-1% Jim Gilmore 0 2-2% John Cox 0 2-2% Tommy Thompson 1 3-2% Chuck Hagel 1 4-3% George Pataki 1 6-5% Newt Gingrich 9 24-15% Someone Else 1 22 Don t Know 13 36 (N) (310) (302) * = Less than 1%
Favorability Rating - Brownback STATEWIDE 12% 14% 14% 60% 303 Undeclared/Not Registered 7% 11% 12% 70% 83 Registered Republican 14% 15% 15% 56% 217 Independent 1% 14% 19% 66% 43 Republican 14% 14% 13% 59% 258 Moderate/Liberal 10% 16% 14% 60% 131 Conservative 14% 12% 14% 60% 166 Union household 7% 11% 8% 73% 33 Non-union 13% 14% 15% 58% 270 5 years or less in NH 15% 21% 12% 52% 24 6 to 10 years 11% 19% 10% 61% 29 11 to 20 years 25% 9% 6% 59% 55 More than 20 years 8% 13% 17% 61% 193 Born in NH 6% 13% 18% 63% 87 Moved from MA 11% 18% 11% 60% 86 Moved from other NE 13% 14% 9% 63% 37 Moved from Mid-Atlantic 12% 10% 13% 64% 36 Moved from other state 24% 9% 17% 50% 57 18 to 34 5% 6% 8% 80% 39 35 to 49 15% 16% 14% 54% 98 50 to 64 14% 15% 10% 62% 96 65 and over 10% 12% 23% 55% 68 Male 14% 15% 16% 55% 159 Female 11% 12% 12% 65% 143 High school or less 9% 5% 13% 73% 70 Some college 7% 9% 12% 72% 76 College graduate 18% 19% 14% 49% 116 Post-graduate 11% 22% 20% 47% 41 Less than $30K 7% 6% 7% 81% 8 $30K to $60K 7% 4% 12% 78% 61 $60K to $75K 0% 0% 16% 84% 20 $75K to $100K 10% 12% 6% 72% 32 More than $100K 16% 21% 21% 43% 79 Married 13% 13% 15% 58% 244 Divorced/separated 12% 17% 6% 65% 37 Never married 3% 12% 13% 73% 22 Protestant 10% 15% 13% 63% 142 Catholic 15% 11% 15% 59% 115 Other 13% 20% 14% 53% 40 Attend services 1 or more/week 16% 15% 9% 59% 95 1-2 times a month 12% 18% 20% 50% 54 Less often 8% 13% 13% 66% 75 Never 12% 8% 15% 66% 72 1
Favorability Rating Brownback (cont.) STATEWIDE 12% 14% 14% 60% 303 North Country 17% 10% 15% 58% 27 Central/Lakes 14% 15% 8% 63% 57 Connecticut Valley 7% 14% 12% 68% 50 Mass Border 15% 12% 16% 57% 91 Seacoast 15% 24% 19% 41% 44 Manchester Area 4% 3% 13% 79% 33 1st Cong. District 13% 12% 17% 57% 142 2nd Cong. District 12% 15% 11% 62% 160 Approve Bush 12% 13% 12% 63% 186 Neutral 17% 15% 8% 61% 15 Disapprove 13% 14% 18% 55% 98 Support going to war in Iraq 12% 12% 13% 63% 212 Neutral 21% 24% 7% 48% 13 Oppose war in Iraq 11% 18% 19% 52% 76 Support Iraq surge 12% 11% 13% 63% 194 Neutral 0% 26% 0% 74% 11 Oppose surge 14% 17% 17% 52% 96 Extremely interested in Primary 18% 17% 14% 50% 111 Very interested 9% 18% 13% 61% 107 Somewhat/not very interested 10% 4% 15% 71% 84 Definitely vote in Primary 13% 15% 13% 59% 238 Vote unless emergency 7% 10% 10% 73% 51 May vote 17% 11% 40% 33% 14 2
Favorability Rating - Giuliani STATEWIDE 70% 13% 14% 3% 310 Undeclared/Not Registered 71% 10% 12% 7% 86 Registered Republican 69% 14% 15% 2% 223 Independent 67% 10% 23% 0% 46 Republican 70% 13% 13% 3% 263 Moderate/Liberal 76% 11% 13% 0% 132 Conservative 66% 14% 14% 5% 171 Union household 80% 11% 9% 0% 35 Non-union 69% 13% 15% 3% 275 5 years or less in NH 85% 9% 6% 0% 24 6 to 10 years 77% 5% 17% 0% 29 11 to 20 years 61% 12% 25% 2% 55 More than 20 years 69% 15% 12% 4% 200 Born in NH 76% 9% 14% 2% 90 Moved from MA 68% 15% 10% 6% 88 Moved from other NE 76% 10% 14% 0% 37 Moved from Mid-Atlantic 62% 20% 14% 4% 38 Moved from other state 65% 12% 21% 2% 58 18 to 34 75% 2% 16% 7% 40 35 to 49 66% 17% 15% 2% 101 50 to 64 72% 8% 17% 3% 100 65 and over 69% 19% 8% 4% 68 Male 71% 15% 13% 2% 162 Female 69% 11% 16% 5% 148 High school or less 75% 11% 9% 5% 70 Some college 68% 11% 16% 5% 78 College graduate 73% 10% 17% 1% 119 Post-graduate 57% 27% 13% 2% 43 Less than $30K 52% 13% 29% 6% 8 $30K to $60K 74% 8% 14% 4% 61 $60K to $75K 73% 15% 12% 0% 21 $75K to $100K 71% 17% 6% 5% 32 More than $100K 68% 16% 15% 1% 80 Married 72% 13% 15% 1% 250 Divorced/separated 59% 15% 15% 11% 37 Never married 70% 10% 7% 12% 23 Protestant 68% 15% 14% 3% 147 Catholic 74% 9% 14% 3% 116 Other 65% 16% 15% 4% 42 Attend services 1 or more/week 60% 18% 18% 3% 97 1-2 times a month 76% 8% 13% 3% 57 Less often 71% 12% 14% 3% 77 Never 80% 9% 10% 2% 73 3
Favorability Rating Giuliani (cont.) STATEWIDE 70% 13% 14% 3% 310 North Country 80% 7% 13% 0% 27 Central/Lakes 68% 9% 17% 6% 59 Connecticut Valley 70% 13% 17% 0% 50 Mass Border 71% 11% 14% 4% 93 Seacoast 62% 21% 14% 2% 47 Manchester Area 73% 15% 9% 3% 34 1st Cong. District 69% 13% 14% 4% 150 2nd Cong. District 71% 12% 15% 2% 160 Approve Bush 72% 13% 13% 3% 192 Neutral 68% 26% 6% 0% 15 Disapprove 68% 11% 18% 3% 99 Support going to war in Iraq 76% 12% 10% 3% 217 Neutral 67% 20% 9% 3% 15 Oppose war in Iraq 54% 14% 27% 5% 77 Support Iraq surge 71% 12% 13% 3% 198 Neutral 59% 18% 9% 14% 12 Oppose surge 67% 14% 17% 2% 98 Extremely interested in Primary 58% 20% 21% 1% 111 Very interested 81% 7% 11% 1% 112 Somewhat/not very interested 71% 12% 10% 8% 87 Definitely vote in Primary 67% 14% 16% 2% 242 Vote unless emergency 87% 3% 8% 3% 54 May vote 49% 20% 9% 22% 14 4
Favorability Rating - McCain STATEWIDE 59% 11% 27% 3% 310 Undeclared/Not Registered 56% 9% 27% 8% 86 Registered Republican 59% 12% 27% 2% 223 Independent 56% 11% 31% 3% 46 Republican 59% 11% 26% 3% 263 Moderate/Liberal 72% 8% 17% 3% 132 Conservative 49% 13% 35% 3% 171 Union household 63% 8% 28% 1% 35 Non-union 58% 12% 27% 4% 275 5 years or less in NH 76% 8% 16% 0% 24 6 to 10 years 77% 3% 15% 5% 29 11 to 20 years 60% 12% 23% 4% 55 More than 20 years 54% 12% 31% 4% 200 Born in NH 54% 10% 33% 3% 90 Moved from MA 67% 7% 24% 2% 88 Moved from other NE 54% 10% 29% 7% 37 Moved from Mid-Atlantic 55% 14% 26% 6% 38 Moved from other state 58% 18% 22% 2% 58 18 to 34 51% 10% 33% 6% 40 35 to 49 56% 15% 27% 3% 101 50 to 64 63% 7% 26% 4% 100 65 and over 61% 12% 24% 2% 68 Male 56% 9% 31% 4% 162 Female 61% 14% 22% 3% 148 High school or less 57% 9% 31% 3% 70 Some college 54% 9% 29% 7% 78 College graduate 63% 11% 24% 1% 119 Post-graduate 57% 17% 24% 2% 43 Less than $30K 31% 8% 42% 18% 8 $30K to $60K 63% 10% 25% 2% 61 $60K to $75K 67% 6% 27% 0% 21 $75K to $100K 37% 18% 43% 2% 32 More than $100K 62% 12% 23% 2% 80 Married 59% 11% 28% 3% 250 Divorced/separated 59% 14% 19% 8% 37 Never married 59% 11% 25% 5% 23 Protestant 60% 12% 26% 2% 147 Catholic 60% 10% 27% 3% 116 Other 50% 9% 32% 9% 42 Attend services 1 or more/week 53% 14% 29% 5% 97 1-2 times a month 72% 8% 20% 0% 57 Less often 49% 10% 39% 2% 77 Never 65% 11% 17% 7% 73 5
Favorability Rating McCain (cont.) STATEWIDE 59% 11% 27% 3% 310 North Country 60% 9% 26% 5% 27 Central/Lakes 62% 12% 20% 6% 59 Connecticut Valley 59% 14% 26% 1% 50 Mass Border 64% 5% 28% 2% 93 Seacoast 60% 12% 26% 2% 47 Manchester Area 34% 22% 37% 7% 34 1st Cong. District 57% 12% 28% 3% 150 2nd Cong. District 60% 11% 26% 4% 160 Approve Bush 59% 12% 27% 3% 192 Neutral 66% 20% 13% 0% 15 Disapprove 56% 8% 30% 5% 99 Support going to war in Iraq 62% 10% 26% 2% 217 Neutral 48% 20% 20% 12% 15 Oppose war in Iraq 50% 12% 31% 6% 77 Support Iraq surge 59% 13% 27% 1% 198 Neutral 49% 15% 11% 25% 12 Oppose surge 59% 7% 30% 5% 98 Extremely interested in Primary 50% 16% 32% 2% 111 Very interested 68% 7% 21% 4% 112 Somewhat/not very interested 57% 10% 28% 5% 87 Definitely vote in Primary 56% 13% 28% 4% 242 Vote unless emergency 68% 4% 25% 3% 54 May vote 63% 13% 20% 4% 14 6
Favorability Rating - Romney STATEWIDE 53% 13% 27% 8% 310 Undeclared/Not Registered 59% 9% 21% 11% 86 Registered Republican 50% 14% 29% 7% 223 Independent 45% 11% 36% 8% 46 Republican 54% 13% 25% 8% 263 Moderate/Liberal 51% 9% 31% 8% 132 Conservative 55% 15% 23% 7% 171 Union household 59% 5% 33% 3% 35 Non-union 52% 14% 26% 9% 275 5 years or less in NH 62% 12% 13% 13% 24 6 to 10 years 59% 9% 28% 4% 29 11 to 20 years 45% 16% 29% 10% 55 More than 20 years 53% 12% 28% 8% 200 Born in NH 56% 15% 22% 8% 90 Moved from MA 48% 16% 32% 4% 88 Moved from other NE 41% 14% 39% 6% 37 Moved from Mid-Atlantic 49% 14% 18% 19% 38 Moved from other state 63% 3% 24% 10% 58 18 to 34 48% 15% 19% 19% 40 35 to 49 50% 18% 30% 2% 101 50 to 64 56% 8% 27% 8% 100 65 and over 54% 9% 26% 10% 68 Male 59% 13% 24% 4% 162 Female 46% 12% 30% 12% 148 High school or less 48% 9% 30% 13% 70 Some college 55% 14% 25% 6% 78 College graduate 53% 14% 26% 6% 119 Post-graduate 54% 13% 25% 8% 43 Less than $30K 68% 6% 14% 13% 8 $30K to $60K 57% 9% 27% 7% 61 $60K to $75K 66% 9% 19% 6% 21 $75K to $100K 60% 3% 25% 12% 32 More than $100K 49% 16% 29% 6% 80 Married 53% 13% 27% 7% 250 Divorced/separated 55% 10% 22% 13% 37 Never married 48% 10% 30% 12% 23 Protestant 57% 9% 23% 12% 147 Catholic 48% 17% 31% 4% 116 Other 54% 10% 28% 8% 42 Attend services 1 or more/week 49% 20% 21% 10% 97 1-2 times a month 67% 5% 24% 4% 57 Less often 55% 11% 22% 12% 77 Never 48% 8% 39% 6% 73 7
Favorability Rating Romney (cont.) STATEWIDE 53% 13% 27% 8% 310 North Country 55% 14% 25% 7% 27 Central/Lakes 53% 8% 26% 13% 59 Connecticut Valley 41% 16% 29% 14% 50 Mass Border 52% 10% 32% 6% 93 Seacoast 59% 15% 24% 2% 47 Manchester Area 61% 17% 15% 7% 34 1st Cong. District 58% 10% 27% 5% 150 2nd Cong. District 47% 16% 27% 11% 160 Approve Bush 59% 13% 21% 7% 192 Neutral 54% 10% 18% 18% 15 Disapprove 41% 11% 39% 9% 99 Support going to war in Iraq 60% 10% 24% 7% 217 Neutral 36% 45% 15% 3% 15 Oppose war in Iraq 35% 15% 37% 13% 77 Support Iraq surge 55% 11% 25% 8% 198 Neutral 74% 22% 0% 4% 12 Oppose surge 45% 14% 33% 8% 98 Extremely interested in Primary 54% 12% 29% 5% 111 Very interested 59% 10% 24% 7% 112 Somewhat/not very interested 43% 16% 28% 13% 87 Definitely vote in Primary 56% 12% 26% 7% 242 Vote unless emergency 45% 14% 27% 14% 54 May vote 27% 24% 37% 12% 14 8
Favorability Rating - Pataki STATEWIDE 30% 20% 27% 23% 309 Undeclared/Not Registered 37% 16% 15% 33% 86 Registered Republican 27% 21% 32% 20% 221 Independent 43% 13% 30% 14% 46 Republican 27% 21% 27% 25% 261 Moderate/Liberal 41% 20% 23% 16% 132 Conservative 22% 20% 30% 28% 171 Union household 42% 22% 23% 13% 35 Non-union 28% 20% 28% 25% 274 5 years or less in NH 28% 27% 24% 21% 24 6 to 10 years 38% 21% 25% 16% 29 11 to 20 years 26% 16% 42% 16% 55 More than 20 years 30% 20% 24% 27% 200 Born in NH 29% 16% 23% 32% 90 Moved from MA 30% 24% 26% 20% 88 Moved from other NE 23% 24% 35% 18% 37 Moved from Mid-Atlantic 38% 18% 36% 8% 38 Moved from other state 29% 20% 24% 27% 56 18 to 34 31% 26% 11% 31% 40 35 to 49 33% 20% 27% 19% 101 50 to 64 34% 15% 26% 24% 100 65 and over 16% 23% 38% 23% 67 Male 30% 21% 29% 20% 161 Female 29% 19% 25% 26% 148 High school or less 24% 17% 23% 36% 70 Some college 17% 15% 33% 35% 76 College graduate 39% 23% 25% 13% 119 Post-graduate 36% 25% 29% 10% 43 Less than $30K 18% 0% 19% 63% 8 $30K to $60K 21% 17% 29% 34% 61 $60K to $75K 22% 15% 39% 24% 21 $75K to $100K 37% 19% 16% 28% 32 More than $100K 37% 26% 24% 13% 80 Married 29% 22% 29% 20% 249 Divorced/separated 25% 12% 25% 38% 37 Never married 41% 12% 12% 35% 23 Protestant 25% 25% 24% 26% 147 Catholic 37% 17% 27% 19% 114 Other 22% 12% 37% 29% 42 Attend services 1 or more/week 20% 21% 32% 27% 97 1-2 times a month 39% 23% 27% 11% 57 Less often 32% 20% 19% 29% 76 Never 35% 14% 29% 23% 73 9
Favorability Rating Pataki (cont.) STATEWIDE 30% 20% 27% 23% 309 North Country 24% 21% 38% 17% 27 Central/Lakes 33% 14% 21% 32% 59 Connecticut Valley 28% 23% 19% 30% 50 Mass Border 32% 20% 30% 18% 93 Seacoast 28% 27% 30% 15% 47 Manchester Area 27% 13% 30% 30% 33 1st Cong. District 26% 18% 32% 24% 148 2nd Cong. District 33% 22% 23% 22% 160 Approve Bush 29% 19% 25% 26% 190 Neutral 44% 21% 26% 9% 15 Disapprove 29% 19% 31% 21% 99 Support going to war in Iraq 31% 18% 27% 23% 215 Neutral 29% 29% 15% 27% 15 Oppose war in Iraq 25% 22% 30% 23% 77 Support Iraq surge 31% 16% 27% 27% 196 Neutral 24% 19% 9% 49% 12 Oppose surge 28% 27% 31% 14% 98 Extremely interested in Primary 26% 24% 30% 20% 111 Very interested 31% 17% 30% 22% 112 Somewhat/not very interested 34% 18% 19% 29% 86 Definitely vote in Primary 28% 21% 29% 23% 241 Vote unless emergency 41% 14% 20% 25% 54 May vote 19% 30% 25% 25% 14 10
Favorability Rating - Huckabee STATEWIDE 16% 10% 15% 59% 310 Undeclared/Not Registered 12% 4% 17% 67% 86 Registered Republican 17% 13% 14% 56% 223 Independent 16% 14% 14% 57% 46 Republican 16% 10% 15% 60% 263 Moderate/Liberal 9% 14% 17% 60% 132 Conservative 22% 7% 14% 57% 171 Union household 9% 9% 9% 73% 35 Non-union 17% 10% 15% 57% 275 5 years or less in NH 18% 5% 12% 65% 24 6 to 10 years 6% 14% 15% 64% 29 11 to 20 years 14% 5% 18% 64% 55 More than 20 years 17% 12% 14% 56% 200 Born in NH 20% 12% 13% 56% 90 Moved from MA 13% 13% 15% 60% 88 Moved from other NE 9% 4% 20% 66% 37 Moved from Mid-Atlantic 17% 5% 15% 63% 38 Moved from other state 18% 11% 14% 56% 58 18 to 34 14% 0% 13% 73% 40 35 to 49 16% 12% 12% 59% 101 50 to 64 18% 9% 14% 60% 100 65 and over 13% 15% 22% 50% 68 Male 21% 9% 19% 51% 162 Female 10% 12% 10% 68% 148 High school or less 12% 3% 11% 74% 70 Some college 14% 8% 14% 63% 78 College graduate 18% 12% 16% 55% 119 Post-graduate 20% 20% 20% 40% 43 Less than $30K 12% 6% 7% 75% 8 $30K to $60K 13% 5% 13% 70% 61 $60K to $75K 5% 3% 10% 81% 21 $75K to $100K 7% 6% 14% 72% 32 More than $100K 20% 12% 19% 49% 80 Married 16% 11% 15% 58% 250 Divorced/separated 15% 10% 9% 66% 37 Never married 20% 0% 22% 58% 23 Protestant 16% 13% 16% 56% 147 Catholic 20% 7% 13% 60% 116 Other 4% 11% 16% 68% 42 Attend services 1 or more/week 20% 12% 9% 58% 97 1-2 times a month 13% 9% 21% 58% 57 Less often 22% 11% 14% 53% 77 Never 8% 6% 16% 71% 73 11
Favorability Rating Huckabee (cont.) STATEWIDE 16% 10% 15% 59% 310 North Country 18% 14% 8% 60% 27 Central/Lakes 14% 13% 10% 63% 59 Connecticut Valley 10% 13% 17% 60% 50 Mass Border 19% 5% 14% 62% 93 Seacoast 18% 16% 17% 49% 47 Manchester Area 15% 2% 24% 58% 34 1st Cong. District 12% 10% 18% 60% 150 2nd Cong. District 19% 10% 12% 59% 160 Approve Bush 18% 8% 11% 63% 192 Neutral 10% 24% 21% 44% 15 Disapprove 14% 12% 20% 55% 99 Support going to war in Iraq 20% 8% 16% 57% 217 Neutral 13% 22% 0% 65% 15 Oppose war in Iraq 6% 14% 16% 64% 77 Support Iraq surge 17% 7% 16% 61% 198 Neutral 25% 14% 10% 52% 12 Oppose surge 13% 16% 14% 57% 98 Extremely interested in Primary 18% 13% 19% 51% 111 Very interested 19% 11% 14% 55% 112 Somewhat/not very interested 9% 5% 11% 75% 87 Definitely vote in Primary 17% 12% 15% 56% 242 Vote unless emergency 13% 2% 11% 74% 54 May vote 13% 11% 19% 57% 14 12
Favorability Rating - Hagel STATEWIDE 11% 13% 20% 56% 310 Undeclared/Not Registered 7% 9% 18% 66% 86 Registered Republican 12% 14% 21% 53% 223 Independent 20% 14% 11% 55% 46 Republican 9% 13% 22% 57% 263 Moderate/Liberal 14% 15% 15% 56% 132 Conservative 8% 11% 24% 57% 171 Union household 15% 13% 4% 68% 35 Non-union 10% 13% 22% 55% 275 5 years or less in NH 20% 15% 4% 61% 24 6 to 10 years 14% 15% 17% 55% 29 11 to 20 years 19% 8% 23% 51% 55 More than 20 years 7% 14% 21% 58% 200 Born in NH 4% 15% 22% 59% 90 Moved from MA 11% 15% 19% 56% 88 Moved from other NE 6% 11% 20% 63% 37 Moved from Mid-Atlantic 10% 17% 9% 63% 38 Moved from other state 23% 6% 26% 45% 58 18 to 34 11% 6% 5% 78% 40 35 to 49 15% 15% 15% 54% 101 50 to 64 8% 14% 22% 56% 100 65 and over 9% 11% 32% 48% 68 Male 15% 12% 24% 49% 162 Female 6% 14% 15% 65% 148 High school or less 6% 6% 25% 64% 70 Some college 7% 10% 21% 62% 78 College graduate 12% 17% 14% 58% 119 Post-graduate 23% 19% 27% 30% 43 Less than $30K 12% 0% 7% 81% 8 $30K to $60K 5% 10% 20% 65% 61 $60K to $75K 5% 0% 14% 81% 21 $75K to $100K 7% 2% 16% 74% 32 More than $100K 17% 19% 19% 45% 80 Married 11% 13% 21% 54% 250 Divorced/separated 7% 13% 14% 66% 37 Never married 9% 9% 19% 62% 23 Protestant 9% 14% 22% 54% 147 Catholic 13% 12% 16% 58% 116 Other 10% 11% 22% 58% 42 Attend services 1 or more/week 9% 15% 13% 62% 97 1-2 times a month 17% 17% 14% 52% 57 Less often 12% 9% 29% 50% 77 Never 8% 9% 21% 62% 73 13
Favorability Rating Hagel (cont.) STATEWIDE 11% 13% 20% 56% 310 North Country 2% 16% 27% 55% 27 Central/Lakes 13% 13% 10% 63% 59 Connecticut Valley 5% 17% 21% 57% 50 Mass Border 16% 9% 22% 53% 93 Seacoast 12% 16% 28% 44% 47 Manchester Area 5% 8% 14% 72% 34 1st Cong. District 10% 14% 21% 56% 150 2nd Cong. District 12% 12% 19% 57% 160 Approve Bush 10% 11% 21% 58% 192 Neutral 14% 25% 0% 61% 15 Disapprove 12% 14% 22% 53% 99 Support going to war in Iraq 10% 11% 23% 56% 217 Neutral 9% 21% 6% 64% 15 Oppose war in Iraq 13% 17% 15% 55% 77 Support Iraq surge 11% 11% 23% 55% 198 Neutral 5% 5% 11% 79% 12 Oppose surge 12% 17% 15% 56% 98 Extremely interested in Primary 12% 15% 29% 43% 111 Very interested 12% 14% 15% 59% 112 Somewhat/not very interested 7% 8% 15% 70% 87 Definitely vote in Primary 10% 14% 20% 55% 242 Vote unless emergency 16% 4% 16% 64% 54 May vote 0% 24% 31% 46% 14 14
Favorability Rating - Gilmore STATEWIDE 6% 10% 14% 70% 310 Undeclared/Not Registered 3% 6% 14% 76% 86 Registered Republican 7% 12% 13% 68% 223 Independent 2% 6% 20% 72% 46 Republican 7% 11% 13% 70% 263 Moderate/Liberal 3% 11% 14% 73% 132 Conservative 9% 10% 14% 67% 171 Union household 2% 13% 9% 76% 35 Non-union 7% 10% 14% 69% 275 5 years or less in NH 2% 16% 7% 75% 24 6 to 10 years 9% 18% 10% 63% 29 11 to 20 years 6% 4% 17% 73% 55 More than 20 years 7% 10% 14% 70% 200 Born in NH 5% 9% 11% 74% 90 Moved from MA 6% 10% 11% 73% 88 Moved from other NE 6% 10% 12% 72% 37 Moved from Mid-Atlantic 2% 10% 21% 67% 38 Moved from other state 12% 11% 18% 59% 58 18 to 34 8% 6% 7% 78% 40 35 to 49 5% 11% 9% 75% 101 50 to 64 7% 10% 15% 68% 100 65 and over 6% 9% 24% 61% 68 Male 9% 9% 16% 66% 162 Female 4% 11% 12% 74% 148 High school or less 9% 5% 11% 75% 70 Some college 2% 8% 11% 79% 78 College graduate 6% 14% 13% 67% 119 Post-graduate 10% 12% 24% 53% 43 Less than $30K 6% 0% 0% 94% 8 $30K to $60K 1% 2% 11% 86% 61 $60K to $75K 0% 0% 15% 85% 21 $75K to $100K 13% 0% 9% 79% 32 More than $100K 12% 14% 15% 59% 80 Married 6% 11% 15% 68% 250 Divorced/separated 7% 4% 6% 84% 37 Never married 7% 5% 18% 70% 23 Protestant 8% 12% 16% 64% 147 Catholic 5% 8% 10% 76% 116 Other 1% 11% 14% 74% 42 Attend services 1 or more/week 7% 10% 11% 72% 97 1-2 times a month 4% 16% 19% 61% 57 Less often 6% 10% 15% 69% 77 Never 8% 4% 9% 79% 73 15
Favorability Rating Gilmore (cont.) STATEWIDE 6% 10% 14% 70% 310 North Country 6% 18% 8% 67% 27 Central/Lakes 10% 8% 12% 70% 59 Connecticut Valley 6% 10% 14% 70% 50 Mass Border 7% 5% 15% 73% 93 Seacoast 6% 23% 17% 55% 47 Manchester Area 0% 3% 13% 84% 34 1st Cong. District 4% 12% 18% 66% 150 2nd Cong. District 8% 8% 10% 74% 160 Approve Bush 8% 8% 12% 71% 192 Neutral 0% 18% 12% 70% 15 Disapprove 4% 12% 16% 68% 99 Support going to war in Iraq 8% 9% 14% 69% 217 Neutral 0% 21% 11% 68% 15 Oppose war in Iraq 4% 10% 14% 71% 77 Support Iraq surge 9% 9% 15% 67% 198 Neutral 0% 5% 5% 90% 12 Oppose surge 2% 13% 12% 73% 98 Extremely interested in Primary 7% 16% 15% 63% 111 Very interested 5% 9% 15% 70% 112 Somewhat/not very interested 7% 4% 10% 79% 87 Definitely vote in Primary 6% 11% 14% 68% 242 Vote unless emergency 3% 5% 10% 82% 54 May vote 20% 11% 19% 49% 14 16
Favorability Rating - Gingrich STATEWIDE 41% 12% 42% 4% 309 Undeclared/Not Registered 39% 10% 41% 10% 85 Registered Republican 43% 12% 43% 2% 223 Independent 26% 5% 68% 1% 46 Republican 44% 13% 38% 4% 262 Moderate/Liberal 25% 11% 61% 2% 132 Conservative 54% 13% 28% 5% 171 Union household 27% 19% 54% 0% 35 Non-union 43% 11% 41% 5% 274 5 years or less in NH 12% 18% 71% 0% 24 6 to 10 years 45% 17% 34% 5% 29 11 to 20 years 47% 7% 44% 2% 55 More than 20 years 43% 12% 40% 5% 200 Born in NH 44% 12% 38% 6% 90 Moved from MA 40% 7% 50% 2% 88 Moved from other NE 37% 16% 42% 5% 37 Moved from Mid-Atlantic 40% 15% 41% 4% 37 Moved from other state 42% 15% 40% 3% 58 18 to 34 28% 21% 37% 14% 40 35 to 49 38% 16% 44% 1% 101 50 to 64 40% 7% 49% 4% 99 65 and over 56% 7% 33% 3% 68 Male 50% 10% 35% 4% 161 Female 32% 14% 50% 4% 148 High school or less 43% 10% 39% 8% 70 Some college 44% 10% 39% 7% 78 College graduate 38% 15% 46% 1% 118 Post-graduate 42% 10% 45% 2% 43 Less than $30K 25% 6% 56% 13% 8 $30K to $60K 47% 6% 45% 2% 61 $60K to $75K 35% 15% 50% 0% 21 $75K to $100K 40% 17% 38% 5% 32 More than $100K 32% 13% 53% 1% 79 Married 43% 13% 42% 2% 250 Divorced/separated 34% 10% 43% 13% 37 Never married 31% 8% 48% 12% 23 Protestant 44% 13% 39% 4% 147 Catholic 42% 10% 44% 4% 115 Other 34% 15% 45% 6% 42 Attend services 1 or more/week 49% 17% 30% 5% 97 1-2 times a month 41% 7% 52% 0% 57 Less often 40% 9% 45% 5% 77 Never 35% 14% 45% 6% 72 17
Favorability Rating Gingrich (cont.) STATEWIDE 41% 12% 42% 4% 309 North Country 46% 5% 42% 7% 27 Central/Lakes 35% 15% 41% 8% 59 Connecticut Valley 38% 11% 50% 1% 50 Mass Border 45% 8% 45% 2% 92 Seacoast 41% 18% 39% 2% 47 Manchester Area 46% 16% 32% 7% 34 1st Cong. District 42% 14% 40% 5% 150 2nd Cong. District 41% 10% 45% 4% 160 Approve Bush 50% 12% 34% 4% 192 Neutral 63% 24% 9% 4% 15 Disapprove 23% 9% 64% 5% 98 Support going to war in Iraq 52% 11% 34% 3% 216 Neutral 25% 23% 39% 12% 15 Oppose war in Iraq 15% 13% 66% 7% 77 Support Iraq surge 53% 10% 34% 3% 198 Neutral 24% 23% 28% 25% 12 Oppose surge 21% 15% 61% 3% 97 Extremely interested in Primary 49% 18% 32% 2% 111 Very interested 39% 8% 48% 5% 112 Somewhat/not very interested 35% 10% 49% 6% 87 Definitely vote in Primary 45% 13% 39% 4% 242 Vote unless emergency 34% 6% 57% 3% 54 May vote 9% 23% 56% 12% 14 18
Favorability Rating - Hunter STATEWIDE 6% 9% 16% 69% 310 Undeclared/Not Registered 5% 6% 13% 75% 86 Registered Republican 6% 11% 18% 66% 223 Independent 7% 7% 24% 62% 46 Republican 6% 10% 15% 70% 263 Moderate/Liberal 4% 12% 16% 69% 132 Conservative 7% 8% 16% 69% 171 Union household 5% 11% 15% 70% 35 Non-union 6% 9% 16% 69% 275 5 years or less in NH 10% 17% 14% 58% 24 6 to 10 years 0% 22% 20% 58% 29 11 to 20 years 7% 0% 18% 75% 55 More than 20 years 6% 9% 16% 70% 200 Born in NH 10% 9% 11% 70% 90 Moved from MA 4% 9% 16% 71% 88 Moved from other NE 3% 12% 19% 66% 37 Moved from Mid-Atlantic 4% 10% 17% 69% 38 Moved from other state 4% 8% 22% 65% 58 18 to 34 6% 6% 14% 74% 40 35 to 49 6% 9% 11% 75% 101 50 to 64 4% 11% 18% 67% 100 65 and over 7% 8% 25% 60% 68 Male 6% 11% 20% 64% 162 Female 6% 8% 12% 74% 148 High school or less 5% 4% 9% 83% 70 Some college 9% 8% 15% 69% 78 College graduate 3% 12% 17% 68% 119 Post-graduate 8% 15% 29% 48% 43 Less than $30K 6% 0% 7% 88% 8 $30K to $60K 6% 2% 18% 74% 61 $60K to $75K 0% 8% 5% 87% 21 $75K to $100K 4% 7% 15% 74% 32 More than $100K 7% 13% 23% 57% 80 Married 5% 10% 18% 66% 250 Divorced/separated 6% 8% 4% 82% 37 Never married 8% 5% 14% 72% 23 Protestant 5% 12% 17% 66% 147 Catholic 6% 8% 12% 74% 116 Other 6% 4% 21% 69% 42 Attend services 1 or more/week 3% 11% 13% 72% 97 1-2 times a month 12% 9% 20% 60% 57 Less often 7% 14% 13% 67% 77 Never 3% 4% 17% 77% 73 19
Favorability Rating Hunter (cont.) STATEWIDE 6% 9% 16% 69% 310 North Country 14% 18% 18% 50% 27 Central/Lakes 4% 10% 14% 72% 59 Connecticut Valley 1% 13% 21% 65% 50 Mass Border 11% 3% 14% 72% 93 Seacoast 1% 16% 19% 63% 47 Manchester Area 0% 3% 15% 81% 34 1st Cong. District 4% 8% 18% 70% 150 2nd Cong. District 7% 11% 15% 67% 160 Approve Bush 4% 9% 14% 73% 192 Neutral 10% 7% 12% 70% 15 Disapprove 8% 11% 21% 60% 99 Support going to war in Iraq 6% 8% 15% 70% 217 Neutral 9% 21% 20% 50% 15 Oppose war in Iraq 3% 10% 19% 67% 77 Support Iraq surge 5% 9% 16% 71% 198 Neutral 0% 5% 11% 83% 12 Oppose surge 9% 12% 18% 62% 98 Extremely interested in Primary 9% 15% 21% 56% 111 Very interested 6% 8% 14% 72% 112 Somewhat/not very interested 2% 4% 13% 81% 87 Definitely vote in Primary 6% 11% 17% 67% 242 Vote unless emergency 7% 4% 14% 75% 54 May vote 0% 0% 19% 81% 14 20
Favorability Rating - Tancredo STATEWIDE 11% 12% 12% 66% 310 Undeclared/Not Registered 12% 7% 7% 74% 86 Registered Republican 10% 13% 14% 63% 223 Independent 12% 14% 16% 59% 46 Republican 10% 11% 11% 67% 263 Moderate/Liberal 8% 11% 10% 71% 132 Conservative 12% 13% 13% 62% 171 Union household 11% 12% 6% 72% 35 Non-union 11% 12% 12% 65% 275 5 years or less in NH 2% 16% 12% 70% 24 6 to 10 years 12% 9% 6% 73% 29 11 to 20 years 12% 5% 14% 69% 55 More than 20 years 10% 13% 12% 64% 200 Born in NH 15% 13% 8% 64% 90 Moved from MA 5% 10% 14% 71% 88 Moved from other NE 6% 10% 17% 68% 37 Moved from Mid-Atlantic 10% 13% 5% 72% 38 Moved from other state 16% 13% 15% 56% 58 18 to 34 13% 11% 3% 73% 40 35 to 49 8% 13% 9% 70% 101 50 to 64 11% 8% 14% 67% 100 65 and over 11% 15% 18% 55% 68 Male 14% 12% 15% 59% 162 Female 7% 11% 9% 74% 148 High school or less 10% 6% 9% 75% 70 Some college 11% 11% 7% 71% 78 College graduate 9% 14% 13% 63% 119 Post-graduate 15% 15% 21% 48% 43 Less than $30K 12% 0% 0% 88% 8 $30K to $60K 5% 12% 7% 76% 61 $60K to $75K 6% 5% 17% 72% 21 $75K to $100K 12% 0% 7% 80% 32 More than $100K 13% 12% 13% 63% 80 Married 9% 13% 13% 64% 250 Divorced/separated 11% 7% 6% 76% 37 Never married 24% 5% 3% 68% 23 Protestant 9% 13% 12% 66% 147 Catholic 12% 12% 12% 65% 116 Other 12% 8% 10% 69% 42 Attend services 1 or more/week 8% 14% 8% 70% 97 1-2 times a month 14% 11% 14% 60% 57 Less often 14% 10% 10% 65% 77 Never 8% 9% 13% 70% 73 21
Favorability Rating Tancredo (cont.) STATEWIDE 11% 12% 12% 66% 310 North Country 12% 21% 6% 60% 27 Central/Lakes 4% 13% 11% 72% 59 Connecticut Valley 8% 6% 8% 78% 50 Mass Border 15% 8% 12% 65% 93 Seacoast 13% 23% 18% 46% 47 Manchester Area 11% 1% 14% 74% 34 1st Cong. District 11% 12% 16% 61% 150 2nd Cong. District 10% 11% 8% 70% 160 Approve Bush 11% 10% 12% 67% 192 Neutral 21% 18% 5% 57% 15 Disapprove 9% 13% 12% 67% 99 Support going to war in Iraq 12% 12% 13% 63% 217 Neutral 9% 13% 11% 67% 15 Oppose war in Iraq 8% 11% 7% 74% 77 Support Iraq surge 12% 10% 12% 65% 198 Neutral 0% 5% 0% 95% 12 Oppose surge 9% 15% 10% 66% 98 Extremely interested in Primary 16% 16% 13% 55% 111 Very interested 4% 10% 13% 72% 112 Somewhat/not very interested 12% 8% 8% 72% 87 Definitely vote in Primary 12% 12% 12% 64% 242 Vote unless emergency 9% 6% 9% 77% 54 May vote 0% 20% 19% 61% 14 22
Favorability Rating - Cox STATEWIDE 4% 9% 12% 75% 310 Undeclared/Not Registered 4% 7% 10% 79% 86 Registered Republican 4% 10% 13% 73% 223 Independent 3% 10% 16% 71% 46 Republican 4% 9% 12% 75% 263 Moderate/Liberal 5% 12% 12% 71% 132 Conservative 3% 8% 12% 77% 171 Union household 10% 10% 10% 70% 35 Non-union 3% 9% 12% 75% 275 5 years or less in NH 5% 23% 4% 69% 24 6 to 10 years 5% 15% 12% 68% 29 11 to 20 years 8% 4% 17% 72% 55 More than 20 years 3% 8% 12% 77% 200 Born in NH 5% 8% 12% 76% 90 Moved from MA 2% 9% 10% 79% 88 Moved from other NE 9% 16% 9% 66% 37 Moved from Mid-Atlantic 5% 7% 9% 79% 38 Moved from other state 2% 9% 20% 69% 58 18 to 34 6% 6% 11% 77% 40 35 to 49 3% 13% 8% 76% 101 50 to 64 3% 9% 11% 76% 100 65 and over 3% 5% 20% 71% 68 Male 5% 9% 14% 73% 162 Female 3% 10% 10% 77% 148 High school or less 5% 4% 11% 80% 70 Some college 4% 7% 7% 81% 78 College graduate 4% 11% 12% 72% 119 Post-graduate 2% 15% 23% 61% 43 Less than $30K 0% 6% 0% 94% 8 $30K to $60K 4% 1% 10% 85% 61 $60K to $75K 0% 8% 5% 87% 21 $75K to $100K 2% 0% 5% 93% 32 More than $100K 2% 13% 16% 69% 80 Married 4% 10% 13% 73% 250 Divorced/separated 0% 9% 8% 83% 37 Never married 5% 5% 12% 78% 23 Protestant 4% 11% 12% 72% 147 Catholic 2% 7% 13% 78% 116 Other 7% 8% 9% 75% 42 Attend services 1 or more/week 4% 6% 10% 80% 97 1-2 times a month 5% 17% 15% 64% 57 Less often 1% 12% 14% 72% 77 Never 5% 4% 9% 82% 73 23
Favorability Rating Cox (cont.) STATEWIDE 4% 9% 12% 75% 310 North Country 13% 10% 12% 65% 27 Central/Lakes 2% 10% 8% 80% 59 Connecticut Valley 5% 12% 11% 72% 50 Mass Border 2% 5% 16% 77% 93 Seacoast 6% 16% 13% 64% 47 Manchester Area 0% 3% 9% 87% 34 1st Cong. District 4% 9% 17% 71% 150 2nd Cong. District 4% 10% 8% 78% 160 Approve Bush 4% 7% 12% 77% 192 Neutral 10% 7% 21% 61% 15 Disapprove 3% 13% 11% 73% 99 Support going to war in Iraq 4% 8% 12% 76% 217 Neutral 9% 13% 14% 64% 15 Oppose war in Iraq 2% 12% 12% 74% 77 Support Iraq surge 4% 8% 13% 75% 198 Neutral 11% 5% 0% 83% 12 Oppose surge 3% 12% 12% 73% 98 Extremely interested in Primary 1% 15% 12% 72% 111 Very interested 8% 7% 9% 76% 112 Somewhat/not very interested 2% 4% 17% 78% 87 Definitely vote in Primary 4% 10% 11% 74% 242 Vote unless emergency 1% 4% 14% 80% 54 May vote 4% 11% 19% 65% 14 24
Favorability Rating - Thompson STATEWIDE 13% 14% 17% 57% 310 Undeclared/Not Registered 12% 8% 5% 74% 86 Registered Republican 13% 16% 21% 50% 223 Independent 20% 13% 18% 49% 46 Republican 12% 14% 17% 58% 263 Moderate/Liberal 10% 15% 14% 62% 132 Conservative 14% 14% 19% 53% 171 Union household 22% 15% 5% 58% 35 Non-union 12% 14% 18% 57% 275 5 years or less in NH 18% 24% 4% 55% 24 6 to 10 years 4% 19% 14% 64% 29 11 to 20 years 23% 8% 14% 55% 55 More than 20 years 11% 14% 20% 56% 200 Born in NH 10% 11% 19% 60% 90 Moved from MA 15% 15% 16% 53% 88 Moved from other NE 14% 12% 10% 64% 37 Moved from Mid-Atlantic 18% 19% 10% 53% 38 Moved from other state 9% 13% 23% 55% 58 18 to 34 5% 10% 5% 79% 40 35 to 49 17% 16% 9% 57% 101 50 to 64 13% 15% 15% 57% 100 65 and over 9% 10% 37% 43% 68 Male 16% 14% 22% 48% 162 Female 9% 13% 11% 66% 148 High school or less 4% 4% 22% 70% 70 Some college 12% 9% 20% 59% 78 College graduate 16% 17% 11% 56% 119 Post-graduate 20% 29% 17% 34% 43 Less than $30K 0% 6% 14% 81% 8 $30K to $60K 8% 3% 21% 68% 61 $60K to $75K 6% 3% 15% 75% 21 $75K to $100K 5% 4% 20% 70% 32 More than $100K 22% 22% 11% 46% 80 Married 14% 15% 19% 53% 250 Divorced/separated 14% 12% 9% 66% 37 Never married 4% 8% 9% 79% 23 Protestant 11% 15% 18% 56% 147 Catholic 18% 10% 15% 57% 116 Other 7% 21% 16% 56% 42 Attend services 1 or more/week 12% 16% 20% 52% 97 1-2 times a month 16% 17% 17% 50% 57 Less often 11% 11% 12% 66% 77 Never 15% 9% 14% 61% 73 25
Favorability Rating Thompson (cont.) STATEWIDE 13% 14% 17% 57% 310 North Country 18% 14% 18% 51% 27 Central/Lakes 12% 11% 13% 64% 59 Connecticut Valley 12% 16% 19% 53% 50 Mass Border 13% 13% 17% 57% 93 Seacoast 19% 17% 13% 51% 47 Manchester Area 4% 12% 24% 60% 34 1st Cong. District 13% 12% 16% 60% 150 2nd Cong. District 13% 16% 17% 54% 160 Approve Bush 15% 11% 17% 57% 192 Neutral 12% 26% 5% 58% 15 Disapprove 10% 17% 16% 57% 99 Support going to war in Iraq 17% 11% 16% 56% 217 Neutral 8% 30% 20% 42% 15 Oppose war in Iraq 2% 19% 18% 61% 77 Support Iraq surge 13% 13% 19% 56% 198 Neutral 20% 5% 0% 74% 12 Oppose surge 12% 17% 14% 56% 98 Extremely interested in Primary 17% 20% 19% 44% 111 Very interested 12% 10% 20% 57% 112 Somewhat/not very interested 9% 11% 9% 72% 87 Definitely vote in Primary 15% 14% 19% 52% 242 Vote unless emergency 3% 11% 7% 80% 54 May vote 9% 15% 19% 57% 14 26
Favorability Rating - Paul STATEWIDE 5% 11% 11% 73% 310 Undeclared/Not Registered 3% 9% 11% 77% 86 Registered Republican 7% 12% 11% 71% 223 Independent 1% 16% 11% 72% 46 Republican 6% 10% 11% 73% 263 Moderate/Liberal 4% 11% 14% 71% 132 Conservative 7% 11% 9% 73% 171 Union household 2% 14% 2% 82% 35 Non-union 6% 11% 12% 72% 275 5 years or less in NH 7% 20% 0% 74% 24 6 to 10 years 0% 20% 12% 67% 29 11 to 20 years 6% 6% 6% 82% 55 More than 20 years 6% 10% 13% 71% 200 Born in NH 5% 13% 12% 70% 90 Moved from MA 6% 12% 10% 72% 88 Moved from other NE 2% 9% 8% 82% 37 Moved from Mid-Atlantic 3% 10% 9% 78% 38 Moved from other state 9% 8% 13% 70% 58 18 to 34 1% 13% 4% 81% 40 35 to 49 5% 13% 8% 74% 101 50 to 64 6% 8% 15% 70% 100 65 and over 7% 9% 13% 71% 68 Male 6% 13% 10% 71% 162 Female 5% 9% 12% 74% 148 High school or less 6% 3% 8% 83% 70 Some college 4% 10% 10% 76% 78 College graduate 5% 13% 12% 70% 119 Post-graduate 6% 20% 16% 58% 43 Less than $30K 6% 0% 0% 94% 8 $30K to $60K 2% 8% 11% 79% 61 $60K to $75K 6% 0% 10% 84% 21 $75K to $100K 4% 0% 7% 89% 32 More than $100K 11% 14% 13% 63% 80 Married 5% 12% 12% 71% 250 Divorced/separated 4% 8% 6% 82% 37 Never married 9% 9% 3% 79% 23 Protestant 8% 12% 10% 71% 147 Catholic 2% 10% 11% 76% 116 Other 6% 11% 13% 71% 42 Attend services 1 or more/week 5% 13% 8% 74% 97 1-2 times a month 6% 18% 13% 64% 57 Less often 5% 9% 12% 74% 77 Never 6% 4% 9% 81% 73 27