Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Document of The World Bank RESTRUCTURING PAPER ON A PROPOSED PROJECT RESTRUCTURING OF THE INDEX-BASED LIVESTOCK INSURANCE PROJECT CREDIT NUMBERS 4069-MOG, 4687-MN TRUST FUND NUMBERS TF094002, TF094827 BOARD DATE: MAY 2, 2005 TO MONGOLIA {DATE OF RESTRUCTURING} Report No:
ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS Aimag CDF CHF dzud FA FIRST GCC IBLIP IDA PHRD PIU SDC SDR USD Province of Mongolia Contingent Debt Facility Swiss francs extreme weather conditions causing widespread livestock mortality Financing Agreement Financial Sector Reform and Strengthening Initiative Government Catastrophic Coverage Index-based Livestock Insurance Project International Development Association Policy and Human Resources Development Fund (Government of Japan) Project Implementation Unit Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation Special Drawing Rights United States Dollars Regional Vice President: Country Director: Sector Manager (Acting): Task Team Leader: Ms. Pamela Cox, EAPVP Mr. Klaus Rohland, EACCF Mr. Paul Kriss, EASCS Mr. Andrew D. Goodland, EASCS 2
MONGOLIA P088816 CONTENTS Page A. SUMMARY... 4 B. PROJECT STATUS... 4 C. PROPOSED CHANGES... 5 3
RESTRUCTURING PAPER A. SUMMARY 1. The proposed s are: (a) To add an additional approximate US$1.45 million (Swiss Franc CHF1.33 million equivalent) of co-financing to conduct project activities with more rigor and in-depth analysis than originally possible; (b) To create a new expenditure category for the payment of a reinsurance premium by Government and allocate funds to this category to enable government to reduce its fiscal exposure to the insurance; (c) To reallocate the proceeds of Credit 4687-MN to provide additional funds for training, to cover fee increases for Project Implementation Unit (PIU) staff and additional operating costs; and (d) To incorporate several other minor amendments to the legal documents. B. PROJECT STATUS The original project was approved by the Board on May 2, 2005 in the amount of SDR5.14 million (USD7.75 million equivalent). The original objective was to test the viability of index-based livestock insurance in Mongolia. The insurance, based on an index of livestock mortality, is a highly innovative approach to addressing livelihood shocks due to the widespread death of livestock, the most important productive asset of the majority of rural communities. After a successful piloting period, on February 24, 2010, the Board approved Additional Financing in the amount of SDR6.3 million (USD10 million equivalent) in order to scale up the project, and to extend the closing date from June 30, 2011 to March 31, 2014. The objective of the project was amended to: ascertain the viability of index-based livestock insurance in Mongolia to reduce the impact of livestock mortality for herders livelihoods through (i) scaling up the Index- Based Livestock Insurance Program in selected aimags; and (ii) building the institutional capacity and legal and institutional framework for the sustainability of the Index-Based Livestock Insurance Program. In addition to the IDA financing, the project has benefitted from grant co-financing from a number of sources: Japanese PHRD Co-financing Grant (TF054740; USD1.32 million); Korean Trust Fund (TF094827; USD0.7 million); the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC) (TF094002; CHF0.68 million); and the Financial Sector Reform and Strengthening Initiative (FIRST) (USD0.25 million). Note that the FIRST Initiative agreed to provide USD560,000 co-financing at the original project approval date. However, due to structural s in the FIRST administrative, all undisbursed funds were cancelled in 2008, with the total disbursed standing at approximately USD250,000. Project implementation and progress towards achieving the project s objectives have consistently been evaluated as satisfactory. Four cycles of the insurance have been completed. During the 2009-2010 cycle, the fourth of the pilot phase, Mongolia suffered a severe dzud (extreme climatic conditions that cause widespread livestock mortality), the worst in recorded history in terms of numbers of livestock lost (around 9.7 million head) with high levels of losses across the four provinces covered by the insurance, resulting in 4
significant indemnity payouts to insured herders. Drawdown from the IDA-financed CDF was again triggered, with USD1.2 million used to pay total indemnity payments of USD1.42 million to 4706 (84%) of the 5628 covered herders. The fifth cycle was concluded in summer 2011 and the sixth season launched. This cycle has seen an increase in the number of provinces covered to 15 (out of 21). A significant development has been the entrance of an international reinsurer into the market. This is a major milestone in the project s development and provides an endorsement of the design and rate-making methodology, while also achieving progress towards the broader goal of transferring risk out of the country. The scale-up of the project is expected to reach nationwide coverage in 2012. Financial Management under the project was rated as Moderately Unsatisfactory in the latest Implementation Status Report (March 2012) due to inadequate accounting recording in 2011. By the date of this Restructuring Paper, this issue has been addressed and there are no further pending FM issues relevant to this proposed restructuring. C. PROPOSED CHANGES Components: Component 1: Index-based Livestock Insurance Program: Sub-component 1 (iv): Performance review and refinement of the Index-based Livestock Insurance Program. Under this sub-component, refinements to the product, including technical aspects of the insurance product, delivery mechanisms and outreach, will be made on an annual basis in order to increase the robustness of the product and its attractiveness to both herders and participating insurance companies. An important aspect of this refinement effort is to explore options for increasing the access of herders to the insurance. The additional Swiss grant funds would be used to explore the potential for developing a product for herder groups, and piloting promising designs. Furthermore, some design s which have been approved in recent years need to be properly reflected in the legal documents: i) the nationwide expansion will include all 21 aimags and also the administrative area of Ulaan Baatar, the capital city, while at present the legal documents refer only to aimags; ii) at present only owners of livestock can purchase the insurance and it is proposed to expand insurance coverage to herders who do not own livestock, but who herd on behalf of others; iii) the definition of the Government Catastrophe Coverage (GCC) will be clarified by adding additional text in the definitions section of the legal documents; and iv) the provisions in the annual Cooperative Agreement, signed between the Government and participation insurance companies, will be expanded to ensure consistency with current practice. Sub-component 2: Contingent Debt Facility (CDF), for payments to Livestock Insurance Policy Holders. Government draws down the CDF in the event of the government reinsurance being triggered, or for payments under the GCC. As the program 5
moves forward, global reinsurance may be obtainable to cover some of the exposure to the CDF from the GCC. This is currently being explored with the global reinsurance market. If secured, this would have important implications for the longer term sustainability of the program, assuming that government would continue to either provide coverage for catastrophic losses under the GCC, which is an attractive feature of the product. In order to finance any reinsurance premium paid under the project by government, it is proposed to create a new expenditure category in the Financing Agreement (CR 4687-MN), into which funds would be reallocated from the CDF. In addition, provisions will be included in the Financing Agreement (FA) to operationalize the GCC reinsurance. Component 2: Promotion and Public Awareness This component supports annual education and information campaigns to create awareness and understanding of the insurance product. As scale-up has progressed, the costs of these campaigns have increased, especially for face to face education. From 2012 a new approach will be used to focus on training local trainers to reduce costs. In order to conduct the necessary training, funds will be reallocated to the training expenditure category. Component 3: Institutional Capacity Building Sub-component 2: Development of the necessary legal and institutional framework for the sustainability of the program. The additional Swiss financing will support a more complete and thorough analysis of the feasibility of potential institutional structures. Additional funds would also be targeted to carry out the necessary capacity building of stakeholder agencies, including the agency established to administer the program after the project (such as a Mongolian Agriculture Reinsurance Company). Component 4: Monitoring and Data Collection Sub-component 3: Design and carry out impact assessment surveys. The additional Swiss financing will support a far more robust impact assessment than was originally envisioned. This will require additional resources to complete data collection (with a sufficient sample size) and analysis. The impact assessment will seek to determine the extent to which insurance has d herder behavior with respect to risk management. Financing Project costs: Project costs (total costs, including original credit, additional financing and cofinancing) by component are revised as follows to account for the increased cofinancing from SDC and the re-allocation from the CDF to Component 1. 6
Project Costs (US$m equivalent) Components Current Proposed Component 1. Index-based Livestock Insurance 2.77 3.95 Program (not incl. CDF) Component 1: CDF only 11.40 10.90 Component 2: Promotion and Public Awareness 1.84 1.84 Component 3: Institutional Capacity Building 1.31 1.79 Component 4: Monitoring and Evaluation 0.62 0.85 Component 5: Project Management 3.01 3.07 Total 20.95 22.40 Financing Plan: The Financing Plan (total committed financing from start of project) is revised to reflect the proposed additional Swiss grant financing: Source Current Proposed Borrower 0.25 0.25 IDA CR-4069-MOG 7.75 7.75 IDA CR-4687-MN 10.00 10.00 FIRST Initiative 0.25 0.25 Japanese PHRD (TF054740) 1.32 1.32 Korean Trust Fund (TF094827) 0.70 0.70 Swiss Trust Fund (TF94002) 0.68 0.61 Additional Swiss Financing 0 1.52 Total 20.95 22.40 IDA Credit 4687-MN: Creation of New Expenditure Category and Reallocation: In order to finance any reinsurance premium paid under the project by government, it is proposed to create a new expenditure category, Category 8, Payments to reinsurers under any GCC Reinsurance Agreements entered into by the Borrower in the Financing Agreement (CR 4687-MN), into which funds would be reallocated from the CDF. A total of USD315,000 will be reallocated from Category 4 (Contingent Debt Facility for Payouts under Part A.2(i) to Category 8. In addition, a number of other reallocations have been requested by the Borrower as follows: i) A reallocation of SDR300,000 (USD462,000 equivalent) from Category 5, Public Awareness Campaign, to training, reflecting the in approach described above; ii) A reallocation of SDR830,000 (USD1,278,200 equivalent) from Category 4, Contingent Debt Facility to Category 6, Consultancy services for project management, to reflect increased PIU costs under the project (including increased staff fees and an expansion of staffing numbers for the scale-up; and iii) A reallocation of SDR340,000 (USD524,000 equivalent) from Category 4, Contingent Debt Facility to Category 7, Incremental Operating Costs, to reflect increased operating costs as the project operates at nationwide scale. 7
The above s would be reflected as follows: Category of Expenditure Allocation (SDR) % of Financing Current Revised Current Revised Current Revise No 720,000 720,000 100% No (1) Consultants Services under Parts A of the Project (2) Goods and Services (other than Consultants Services) under Parts B and E of the Project (3) Training, Workshops and Study Tours under Parts A, B, and E of the Project (4) Contingent Debt Facility for payouts under Part A.2(i) of the Project (5) Public awareness campaign under Part B of the Project (except for Goods, Training, Workshops and Study Tours) (6) Consultants Services for Project management under Part E of the Project (7) Incremental Operating Costs No 440,000 440,000 100% No No 90,000 390,000 100% No No 4,030,000 2,545,000 100% of Stop-Loss Amounts disbursed in respect of Eligible Claims, as specified in the Stop- Loss Reinsurance Agreements No No 590,000 290,000 100% No No 300,000 1,130,000 100% No No 130,000 470,000 100% No (8) Payments to 0 315,000 100% reinsurers under any GCC Reinsurance Agreements entered into by the Borrower 6,300,000 6,300,000 8
Swiss Grant Financing: The Administrative Agreement has been amended to reflect the additional CHF1.4 million allocated for project co-financing. The current Trust Fund (TF094002) closed on June 30, 2011 and the formal closing letter was sent to Government on March 20, 2012. A new TF will be created consisting of the un-disbursed balance from TF094002 (approximately USD70,000), together with the additional funds. Note that as for the original financing, the additional funds would be transferred from the Swiss in tranches according to the schedule agreed in the revised Administrative Agreement and that the exact dollar amount will depend on the prevailing Swiss Franc: USD ex rate. The Grant Agreement would be revised with each transfer of funds to reflect the amount available in USD (as with the current funding). Expenditure categories and approximate total allocation for the new TF would be as follows: Category of Expenditure (1) Consultants Services under Parts A.1, C.1, C.2, C.3, D.1, D.2, D.3, D.4 and D.5 of the Project (2) Training and workshops under Parts C.1, C.2, C.3 and Part E of the Project (3) Goods and Services (other than Consultants Services) under Part C.2. Allocation (USD) % of Financing 1,070,000 100% 400,000 100% 50,000 100% 1,520,000 9