NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY Government of Mongolia External Partners Second Technical Meeting N. Enkhbayar, Director, EPD Ministry of Finance of Mongolia Ulaanbaatar October 9,, 2006
Need for National Development Strategy (NDS) Weak coordination of policies Need to implement the country s s social policies in a comprehensive approach Unemployment Poverty Education Health Migration, etc. Based on achievements of the MDG there is a need to pursue long term policies/strategies
Consequences of adoption of NDS Decreased a number of policy papers approved by the Parliament Enhanced policy sustainability Improved policy coordination among sectors Shared vision and understanding on Mongolia s s future development
NDS contents I. Human development - Education - Health - Reduce unemployment - Social welfare II. Governance - Transparency - Participatory policy-making - Political stability - Enhancing legal environment III. Economy - Support private sector - Ensure economic growth - Industrial policy - - Investment policy Budget policy IV. Environment - Natural degradation, forestation - Urban air pollution - Biological species - Deforestation
Policy priorities Medium term objectives (2015) to reach MDGs and enhance development and progress of Mongolia s s people Long term objectives (2015 2021) Eliminate poverty, convert the country into the one of the leading country in the region in terms of human development, create knowledge-based economy Vision (2021 - further) Contribute creatively to the global economy through technological advancement. Create a society based on its human capacity
Population, million 3.6 3.25 population, mln 3.2 2.8 2.4 2.4 2.7 3.0 2 2005 2010 2015 2020 years
Increase employment Increase private investment Support vocational training Enhance training contents, standards Support SMEs Expected outcomes Employment participation 75% (2015), 80% (2021) Generate jobs for 40.0 thous (2007-2015) 2015) per year Generate jobs for 30.0 thous (2015-2021) 2021) per year Eliminate from poverty 60.0-70.0 thous per year
Policy to reduce unemployment 200 200 Unemployed, thousand people 150 150 110 Private business,, technology Private business, technology 100 50 SMEs SMEs Infrastructure, big deposits Infrastructure, big deposits 0 2005 2010 year 2015 2020 50
GDP per capita US$, decrease unemployed (thous( thous) GDP per capita, US$ 5000 Unemployed, '000 people 4692,0 250 GDP per capita, US$ 2500 200,0 680,0 150,0 1327,0 2217,0 100,0 50,0 200 150 100 50 Unemployed population, '000 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 0
Reduce poverty Percent 40 30 20 10 36,0 28,0 18,0 To achieve MDG target MDG target 6,0 0 2005 2010 2015 2021
Target growth, percent 20000.0 18000.0 16000.0 14000.0 12000.0 10000.0 8000.0 6000.0 4000.0 2000.0 0.0 GDP (billions tugriks) Real GDP growth (%) GDP per capita: 4700$ GDP per capita: 2200$ 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20.0 18.0 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0
Economic growth strategy 1.SMEs support (2005-2010) 2010) 2. Industrial development (2010-2015) 2015) Ensure energy supply by domestic producers Full supply by energy and export of excess Start oil processing Put into operation big mining enterprises and enhance processing stages Establish industrial parks 3. Knowledge-based industry and service expansion (2015-2021) 2021) Introduce new technology Prepare skilled workers
Factors to reach economic growth target To reach stable and higher economic growth Develop infrastructure Presence of favorable investment environment Reduce transportation cost Keep public investment at 8-108 % of GDP Keep price level increase (at 3-53 5 %) Expected Outcomes Increased private investment growth at 9-10% 9 per year Generated job according to the investment growth Enhanced investment opportunities
Investment program policy Sources: Domestic public investment (8-10( 10% of GDP) private investment (16%) ODA Loans (5-8% of GDP) Grants Priority sectors: Education Health Infrastructure Energy Information technology Issues Improved investment climate Improved service delivery and its quality in education, health Expanded information, information channels
Education sector policy 1. 2005 2010 2010 1. Ensure facilities (schools, text-books, etc) supply Specialists training program: US$ 10-15 15 mln per annum 2. 2010 2015 2015 1. Expand education basic standard on Health Ecological knowledge Technology advancement
Health sector policy Public health Capacity building Technology, vaccination Mortality reduction Improved service delivery Extended life Expectancy
NDS preparation plan Working Group MDGbasebased MDG- NDS NDS (draft-2) Open competition results Open discussion findings Academics, public Public, parties, NGOs... MDG needs assessment, costing Govern- ment TTFs MDGbasebased NDS NDS MDG- (draft-3) President MDGbasebased NDS NDS MDG- (draft-4) Parliament MDGbasebased NDS MDG- NDS
Government Policy Harmonization Parliament National Development Strategy Millennium Development Goals Line Ministries Sector Development Strategy Ministry of Finance Socio-Economic Guidelines Medium Term Fiscal Framework Medium Term Aid Program Country Assistance Strategy Public Investment Program Annual Budget Annual SEGs action plan Annual ODA Disbursement Planning Consultative Meeting
Main objectives of SEGs Enhance business environment, promote foreign and domestic investment, and sustain economic growth Resolve issues faced by health and education sector (20.8% of investment) Prepare and start use big mining deposits Accelerate use of renewal energy Continue implement social programs included in Government Action Plan Cover 1-41 4 grades by School Lunch program
Budget Outcomes Actual 2005 3,2 10,2 Plan 2006 8,6 Expected 2006 5,6 14,1 Plan 2007 4,4-4,0-5,8-10,0-5,0 0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 Overall balance Current balance
Budget policy priorities Ensure economic growth Ensure fiscal sustainability Optimal allocation of domestic and external resources Increase real income of population Expand access to public services Support real sector
Linkage SEGs objectives and budget Link is established (SEGs( Budget) Increase investment for sectoral programs considered as priorities Provide financial support to industries with advanced technology Enhance investment into infrastructure Roads 15.3% Energy 26.9 %
Thank you for your attention!