Steamfitters, Pipefitters and Sprinkler System Installers (NOC 7252)

Occupational Snapshot 2016-2025 Steamfitters, Pipefitters and Sprinkler System Installers (NOC 7252) The British Columbia Asia Pacific Gateway Steamfitters, Pipefitters and Sprinkler System Installers lay out, assemble, fabricate, maintain, troubleshoot and repair piping systems carrying water, steam, chemicals and fuel in heating, cooling, lubricating and other process piping systems. Sprinkler system installers fabricate, install, test, maintain and repair water, foam, carbon dioxide and dry chemical sprinkler systems in buildings for fire protection purposes. Steamfitters, pipefitters and sprinkler system installers are employed in maintenance departments of factories, plants and similar establishments, and by pipefitting and sprinkler system contractors, or they may be selfemployed. For more information, see Appendix A. Example Job Titles: Apprentice pipefittersteamfitter Fire protection mechanic Fire sprinkler fitter Marine pipefitter Pipefitter Sprinkler system fitter Sprinkler system installer Steamfitter Steamfitter-pipefitter About this report Labour market information is data about the supply of and demand for labour in key occupations, sectors, and regions of the economy. The Asia Pacific Gateway Skills Table (APGST) and its partners developed this report to provide comprehensive and up-to-date information on employment needs over a 5- and 10- year forecast period, with a focus on Steamfitters, Pipefitters and Sprinkler System Installers. Reports are also available covering regional and sector outlooks, as are Occupational Snapshots for an additional 51 occupations considered essential to the Asia Pacific Gateway. The snapshots contain detailed supply and demand information, highlights, and data tables. Reports can be found at lmionline.ca. This report provides in-depth information about Steamfitters, Pipefitters and Sprinkler System Installers (NOC 7252) in the Asia Pacific Gateway that can be used to facilitate labour market planning for decisionmakers and employers, and can help workers make informed choices about their careers and futures. The APGST generates the information in these reports from a labour market forecast based on three economic scenarios: the High Investment Scenario, Moderate Investment Scenario and Low Investment Scenario. The analysis that follows, unless otherwise indicated, is based on a Moderate Investment Scenario, which includes projects that are underway as well as planned and likely to proceed. Regional information is included for British Columbia as a whole as well as for the Lower Mainland and Northern BC. Information for the rest of BC s development regions is included in the forecast for the province as a whole, but is not reported separately. For more information, see Appendix B. Steamfitters, Pipefitters and Sprinkler System Installers (NOC 7252) 1

Table of Contents About this report... 1 Executive Summary... 3 Key Facts 2016 2025... 4 HIRING DIFFICULTY INDEX... 4 LABOUR DEMAND... 5 Expansion... 5 LABOUR SUPPLY... 6 Replacement... 6 Base... 7 New... 7 BC Labour Market: Three Economic Scenarios... 10 Conclusions... 11 APPENDICES... 12 Appendix A Duties and Educational Requirements... 12 Appendix B Data Tables by Region and Economic Scenario... 13 The Asia Pacific Gateway Skills Table wishes to acknowledge the funding support from the Government of Canada s Sectoral Initiatives Program. -- The opinions and interpretations in this publication are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Government of Canada. Additional 2016 BC LMI Products: Occupational Snapshots Regional Outlooks Sector Outlooks APGST LMI Forecast Backgrounder More information can be found at www.lmionline.ca or contact the Skills Table at info@apgst.ca or 604.684.1471. Steamfitters, Pipefitters and Sprinkler System Installers (NOC 7252) 2

Executive Summary BY THE NUMBERS 8% 91% 22% of New will leave for other provinces See page 9 for more information on. of New are New Entrants See page 7 for more information on New. of today s Steamfitters, Pipefitters and Sprinkler System Installers will leave the job market by 2025 See page 6 for more information on Replacement. The demand for Steamfitters, Pipefitters and Sprinkler System Installers is expected to be low over the next 10 years in British Columbia. Employers will face difficult conditions in finding the workers they need to fill Job for Steamfitters, Pipefitters and Sprinkler System Installers and in 6 years of the forecast, there will be fewer jobs. Over the next 10 years, it is expected that: 570 Steamfitters, Pipefitters and Sprinkler System Installers Job will be created. At least 22% of today s Steamfitters, Pipefitters and Sprinkler System Installers (approximately 540) will retire and leave the labour market by 2025. Job for Steamfitters, Pipefitters and Sprinkler System Installers will increase by 2%. In BC and the Lower Mainland, Replacement 1 will create the majority (more than 80%) of Job for Steamfitters, Pipefitters and Sprinkler System Installers. In BC, Expansion accounts for 6% of Job, 24% in the first 5 years. In the Lower Mainland, 20% of Job will be from Expansion. In Northern BC, Expansion will reduce the number of Job by 35% but will add 32% in the first 5 years. The 560 new Steamfitters, Pipefitters and Sprinkler System Installers are forecast to be made up of: 510 New Entrants (91%) 75 workers new to Canada (14%) 20 workers from other parts of the labour force (3%) 45 workers for other provinces (-8%) 46% of Steamfitters, Pipefitters and Sprinkler System Installers live in the Lower Mainland, while 13% live in Northern BC. 1 Refers to workers who retire and leave the labour force. Steamfitters, Pipefitters and Sprinkler System Installers (NOC 7252) 3

Key Facts 2016 2025 This forecast provides important information about supply and demand for Steamfitters, Pipefitters and Sprinkler System Installers in British Columbia and key regions of the province. The first 5 years of the forecast show a growing economy, with the following 5 showing many workers retiring from the sector. The Asia Pacific Gateway is forecast to grow during the 10 years of the forecast as trade activity between North America and Asia continues to expand. This growth will increase the need for an available, welltrained workforce. HIRING DIFFICULTY INDEX The Hiring y Index assesses the overall for employers who are trying to hire in the labour market. It aggregates five metrics and combines them to provide a single measure that reflects the different interactions between the labour market components. For example, the metrics can show the ratio of workers to Job (the Market Tightness) as Tight, with International Reliance and Lag Low and positive (i.e., workers are moving in), while the Loss of Experience is Moderate and the reliance on New Entrants is. This implies quite different labour market conditions than a situation where the Market Tightness is Tightening (i.e., less difficult), but International Reliance is High, supply is growing much more slowly than Job, and a high portion of current workers are to work in other provinces. Employers will face difficult conditions for finding the workers they need to fill Job for Steamfitters, Pipefitters and Sprinkler System Installers, and in 6 years of the forecast, there will be fewer jobs (see Table 1). In the Lower Mainland, conditions will become difficult in 2016, 2022 and 2023. In Northern BC, 5 of the 10 years see fewer or no Job. Table 1 Hiring y Index 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Easy market The number of positions (demand) has declined from the previous year. Oversupplied market 0-8 Easy market 9-15 16-22 23-29 ly difficult 30+ Steamfitters, Pipefitters and Sprinkler System Installers (NOC 7252) 4

LABOUR DEMAND 2% increase in Steamfitters, Pipefitters and Sprinkler System Installers positions between 2016 and 2025 Labour Demand is the number of jobs available for workers who have the skills and/or required certifications to be considered qualified to work in each occupation each year. Steamfitters, Pipefitters and Sprinkler System Installers positions are forecast to increase by 35 (the number of positions declines in other regions not included in this analysis) over the 10-year forecast: 40 in the Lower Mainland Less than 5 in Northern BC In BC as a whole, 570 Job for Steamfitters, Pipefitters and Sprinkler System Installers are expected to be created from growth and retirements, with: 300 in the Lower Mainland 60 in Northern BC The number of Job peaks in 2017, falls to 2020 and peaks again in 2023, reflecting the two waves of investment in BC (Figure 1). 105 95 85 75 65 55 45 35 25 15 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Figure 1 Total Job, British Columbia, Steamfitters, Pipefitters and Sprinkler System Installers Expansion Expansion Demand is defined as the number of Job in an occupation created by economic or business growth. In BC, Expansion accounts for 6% of Steamfitters, Pipefitters and Sprinkler System Installers Job over the entire forecast period, 24% in the first 5 years. In the Lower Mainland, Expansion accounts for 20% of Job. In Northern BC, Expansion will reduce the number of Job by 35% but will add 32% in the first 5 years (Table 2). Steamfitters, Pipefitters and Sprinkler System Installers (NOC 7252) 5

Table 2 Demand and Job for Steamfitters, Pipefitters and Sprinkler System Installers (NOC 7252) Region Average Annual Number of Jobs Total Job, 2016 2025 Jobs Created by Expansion, 2016 2020 Jobs Created by Expansion, 2021 2025 Expansion Demand as a % of Job British Columbia 2,385 570 80-50 6% Lower Mainland 1,110 300 20 40 20% Northern BC 310 60 20-40 -35% LABOUR SUPPLY 14% of the New of Steamfitters, Pipefitters and Sprinkler System Installers is from other countries Labour is the number of workers who have the skills and/or certifications to be qualified to work in each occupation each year, including those who are newly trained, have moved from other provinces or countries, or have moved from other occupations. For BC as a whole, labour supply is expected to grow by about 15 workers (the number of workers declines in other regions not included in this analysis) over the 10 years of the forecast, with: 35 in the Lower Mainland Decline by less than 5 in Northern BC On average, Steamfitters, Pipefitters and Sprinkler System Installers are 43 years old, with little difference between the regions. Replacement Replacement Demand is defined as the number of Job created by workers who leave each occupation, and the labour market as a whole, due to retirement or death each year. Replacement continues to be a significant driver of Job, although its impact is declining as more workers remain in the workforce after the age of 65, and the impact of the baby boom generation moving out of the workforce lessens. In BC, Replacement will create 540 Job over the 10 years of the forecast (Table 3). Table 3 Impact of Replacement on Job Region Job Created by Replacement, 2016 2020 Job Created by Replacement, 2021 2025 % Job Created by Replacement British Columbia 265 275 94% Lower Mainland 120 120 80% Northern BC 40 45 135% Steamfitters, Pipefitters and Sprinkler System Installers (NOC 7252) 6

Loss of Experience assesses the rate at which experienced workers are retiring in relation to the number of Job. The rate of loss is high for the majority of the forecast (Table 4). Table 4 Loss of Experience Measure 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Medium High Low Medium High 35% of Job represented by Replacement 35-70% of Job represented by Replacement More than 70% of Job represented by Replacement Base Base is a measure of the decline in the number of workers who are active in an occupation at the beginning of the forecast and subsequently leave due to Replacement over the forecast period. Base is calculated as the total supply less the average number of unemployed workers, less Replacement from each year of the forecast. Base calculations demonstrate the changes in each year of the forecast period to the cohort of workers as compared with the first year of the forecast. For BC as a whole, Base is expected to decline by an average of 22% over the forecast period, with the decline lower in Northern BC (Table 5). Table 5 Changes to Base Labour Region Base, 2016 Decline, 2016 2020 % Decline, 2016 2025 British Columbia 2,465-265 -11% -540-22% Lower Mainland 1,150-120 -10% -240-21% Northern BC 315-40 -13% -85-26% % New New is defined as the number of workers who are new to the occupation from Immigration, other provinces or regions, or other parts of the labour force, or who are New Entrants newly trained and new to the workforce. The Lag Measure assesses the extent to which New is keeping pace with Job. It allows for an assessment of the extent to which conditions are tightening or loosening in the labour market. Risk is high for half of the forecast period and low in the rest of the years (Table 6). Steamfitters, Pipefitters and Sprinkler System Installers (NOC 7252) 7

Table 6 Lag Measure 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 High Low High Low Job or New is less than 6 New is 0 or negative Low New is 97% or more of Job Medium New is 93-97% of Job High New is 93% or less of Job The forecast shows New lags Job for BC as a whole (98%) and the Lower Mainland (95%). In Northern BC, supply outpaces Job (108%) over the whole of the forecast period (Table 7). Table 7 Labour Characteristics, 2016 2025 Region Average Number of Qualified Workers New Entrants International Labour Force British Columbia 2,640 510 75-45 20 Lower Mainland 1,225 230 60 20-25 Northern BC 350 80 25-55 15 The composition of New will change over the forecast period, with increasing reliance on New Entrants and decreasing reliance on workers from other countries (Figure 2). 155% 105% 55% 5% -45% -95% New Entrants International Labour Force 2016 2025 Figure 2 Components of New, Steamfitters, Pipefitters and Sprinkler System Installers, British Columbia, 2016 and 2025 Steamfitters, Pipefitters and Sprinkler System Installers (NOC 7252) 8

New Entrants (workers who are newly trained and new to the workforce) are forecast to represent 91% of the New in BC. Regionally, New Entrants represent: 80% in the Lower Mainland 122% in Northern BC (which loses workers to other regions in BC and other provinces) Immigration (workers coming from other countries) is expected to add 14% to the total New of labour in BC. Regionally, Immigration represents: 20% in the Lower Mainland 37% in Northern BC New Entrants refers to the number of graduates, from school or training programs, who are filling Job. The number of New Entrants takes previous participation in the labour force into consideration. If a new graduate has never worked before, they would be counted as a New Entrant; if a new graduate worked 25% of the year prior to graduating, they would be counted as 0.75 of a New Entrant. The number of New Entrants may not match administrative data for graduates, as graduates do not always end up in the labour force. The International Reliance Measure assesses the extent to which the New of workers is dependent on workers from other countries. Given that the levers that control Immigration are not in the control of employers, this measure provides insight into the potential for New expectations to be influenced by changes in Immigration policy. Reliance on Immigration for Steamfitters, Pipefitters and Sprinkler System Installers varies widely over the forecast period (Table 8). Table 8 International Reliance Measure for Steamfitters, Pipefitters and Sprinkler System Installers (NOC 7252) 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 High Medium Low None Low High None None Low Medium High New is 0 or negative International workers are not part of New Less than 10% of New represented by Immigration 10% to 25% of New represented by Immigration 25% to 50% of New represented by Immigration 50% or more of New represented by Immigration (workers moving into the province) will reduce New by 8%. Regionally, : Adds 8% in the Lower Mainland Reduces the New by 83% in Northern BC The Measure demonstrates the extent to which movement into or out of the province affects the supply of workers available to fill Job. For the regions, it measures movement into and out of the region to other regions in BC, as well as to and from other provinces. For most of the forecast period, workers are BC or there are fewer jobs (Table 9). Steamfitters, Pipefitters and Sprinkler System Installers (NOC 7252) 9

Table 9 Measure 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Moving in Fewer jobs Moderate Fewer jobs Moderate The number of positions (demand) has declined from the previous year There are 0 Job No Net is 0 Moving in Workers are moving to the province/region Low 10% or less of workers Moderate 10% to 25% of workers High 25% to 50% of workers 50% or more of workers Labour Force (workers from other occupations and those returning to the labour force) will add 3% of New in BC. Regionally, Labour Force : Reduces New by 8% in the Lower Mainland Adds 25% in Northern BC BC Labour Market: Three Economic Scenarios The Low Investment Scenario is conservative. It includes projects that are underway or certain to proceed, for a total of $22.6B in investments from 2016-2025. 47% of that investment will be in Northern BC. The Moderate Investment Scenario is the expected scenario. It adds projects that are planned and likely to proceed, for a total of $59.4B in investments from 2016-2025. 65% of that investment will be in Northern BC. The High Investment Scenario is optimistic. It adds projects that have been announced, but with more distant start dates or more regulatory approvals needed to proceed. It is a total of $95.1B in investments from 2016-2025. 67% of that investment will be in Northern BC. The APGST generates the information in these reports from a labour market forecast based on three economic scenarios: the High Investment Scenario, Moderate Investment Scenario, and Low Investment Scenario. The analysis in this report is based on the Moderate Investment Scenario unless otherwise indicated. In BC, the High Investment Scenario will generate a total of about 285 (149%) more Job than the Low Investment Scenario in the first 5 years of the forecast (2016 to 2020). In the final 5 years (2021 to 2025), the Low Investment Scenario outperforms the High by almost 275 Job, for a net effect that has the High Scenario generating about 5 (1%) more Job than the Low. The pattern is similar in the Lower Mainland. In Northern BC, the Low Investment Scenario outperforms the High by 8% over the full 10 years of the forecast. The forecast shows that the economic scenarios impact both supply and demand for Steamfitters, Pipefitters and Sprinkler System Installers. This holds true for the regions as well (Figure 3). Steamfitters, Pipefitters and Sprinkler System Installers (NOC 7252) 10

195 145 95 45-5 -55-105 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Low Moderate High Figure 3 Expansion Demand by Scenario, British Columbia, Steamfitters, Pipefitters and Sprinkler System Installers, 2016-2025 Conclusions The labour market will have some for employers looking to hire Steamfitters, Pipefitters and Sprinkler System Installers over the 10 years of the forecast period, in BC as a whole as well as in each of the regions. Employers can reduce the impacts of the forecast conditions by building programs and strategies to ensure an adequate labour supply. strategies to help employers gain access to workers and enhance productivity in this environment include: Developing retention and recruitment programs for experienced workers as central tools for expanding and maintaining a workforce Developing and supporting work experience, co-op, and internship programs to help build experience in newly trained workers Creating workplaces that encourage workers to stay in BC Developing programs aimed at retaining mature workers to help maintain corporate memory Examining workforce retention and recruitment programs for mature workers to extend the working lives of current employees Managing succession and building comprehensive succession plans and experienced worker retention programs to expand and maintain workforces Steamfitters, Pipefitters and Sprinkler System Installers (NOC 7252) 11

APPENDICES Appendix A Duties and Educational Requirements Steamfitters and Pipefitters perform some or all of the following duties: Read and interpret drawings, blueprints and specifications to determine layout requirements Cut openings for pipe in walls, floors and ceilings using hand or power tools or machines Select type and size of pipe required Measure, cut, thread and bend pipe to required shape using hand and power tools Weld, braze, cement, solder and thread joints to join pipes and fabricate sections of piping system Install supports, valves, piping and control systems Test system for leaks using testing equipment Clean and maintain pipe units and fittings and flush system Remove and replace worn components and reactivate system May prepare cost estimates for clients. Sprinkler System Installers perform some or all of the following duties: Read and interpret drawings, specifications and fire codes to determine layout requirements Install clamps, brackets and hangers to support piping system and sprinkler and fire protection equipment, using hand and power tools Select, measure, cut, ream and thread pipe, install sprinkler heads and mount prepared pipe in supports Join pipes and piping sections using soldering and welding equipment Connect piping system to water mains, supply tanks, pumps, compressors and control equipment Installs valves, alarms and associated equipment Test system for leaks using air or liquid pressure equipment Service and repair sprinkler system May prepare cost estimates for clients Educational Requirements Completion of secondary school is usually required. Completion of a four- to five-year apprenticeship program or A combination of over 5 years of work experience in the trade and some high school, college or industry courses in steamfitting, pipefitting or sprinkler system installation is usually required to be eligible for trade certification. Steamfitter-pipefitter trade certification is voluntary in BC. Sprinkler system installer trade certification is voluntary in BC. Red Seal endorsement is also available to qualified steamfitters-pipefitters and sprinkler system installers upon successful completion of the interprovincial Red Seal examination. Steamfitters, Pipefitters and Sprinkler System Installers (NOC 7252) 12

Appendix B Data Tables by Region and Economic Scenario Steamfitters, Pipefitters and Sprinkler System Installers (NOC 7252) Note: Market Tightness: Assesses the tightness of the labour market; i.e., the degree of difficulty an employer may experience in trying to hire into the occupation. 1 - Excess supply More than 60% higher than normal unemployment 2 - Balanced supply and demand Between 30-60% higher than normal unemployment 3 - Nearing a tight labour market Between 0-30% higher than normal unemployment 4 - Excess demand, limited supply Below normal unemployment British Columbia, Low Investment Scenario Hiring y Index Historical Data 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Easy market Forecast Employment 2,324 2,309 2,304 2,309 2,310 2,292 2,272 2,258 2,257 2,271 2,319 2,346 2,336 Expansion Demand 14-20 -9 1-2 -24-25 -20-4 12 51 28-14 Replacement Demand 45 48 49 51 52 52 53 53 53 53 53 54 54 Job 59 28 40 52 49 28 28 33 49 65 104 82 41 Net New Positions 0-15 -5 5 1-18 -20-14 -1 14 48 27-10 Labour Force 2,604 2,580 2,584 2,580 2,588 2,578 2,561 2,547 2,541 2,543 2,576 2,598 2,587 Net New 60 24 53 47 59 41 35 39 47 56 85 76 43 New Entrants 56 55 54 53 52 51 50 49 49 49 49 49 48 International 22 64-4 18-2 -11-20 -11 7 20 38 33 16 9-23 16-30 11-10 -9-9 -15-10 8 6-12 Labour Force -27-72 -13 6-2 11 14 10 6-3 -10-12 -9 Average Age 42 42 42 42 42 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 Market Tightness 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Moving in Moving in Moving in High Moderate Moving in Moving in Lag Low High Low High Low Low Low Low Medium High High High Low International Reliance High None High None None None None Medium High High High High Loss of Experience High High High High High High High High High High Medium Medium High Steamfitters, Pipefitters and Sprinkler System Installers (NOC 7252) 13

British Columbia, Moderate Investment Scenario Hiring y Index Historical Data 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Easy market Forecast Employment 2324 2309 2304 2328 2378 2406 2403 2395 2396 2392 2400 2395 2365 Expansion Demand 14-20 -9 22 52 27-7 -12-4 -7 6-8 -35 Replacement Demand 45 48 49 51 52 53 54 54 55 55 55 55 55 Job 59 28 40 73 104 80 47 42 51 47 61 47 19 Net New Positions 0-15 -5 24 50 28-3 -8 1-4 8-5 -30 Labour Force 2,604 2,580 2,584 2,593 2,636 2,664 2,668 2,660 2,652 2,640 2,641 2,638 2,610 Net New 60 24 53 59 94 82 58 46 47 42 56 51 27 New Entrants 56 55 54 53 53 53 52 51 51 50 50 50 48 International 22 64-4 29 11 6-4 -7-1 4 17 22 0 9-23 16-53 30 17 20-5 -6-14 -11-1 -22 Labour Force -27-72 -13 30 0 6-10 7 3 2 0-20 1 Average Age 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 43 43 43 43 43 43 Market Tightness 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Moving in Moving in Moving in Moving in Moving in Moderate Moderate Lag Low High Low High High Low Low Low High High High Low Low International Reliance High None High Medium Low None None None Low High High None Loss of Experience High High High Medium Medium Medium High High High High High High High Steamfitters, Pipefitters and Sprinkler System Installers (NOC 7252) 14

British Columbia, High Investment Scenario Hiring y Index Historical Data 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Forecast Employment 2,324 2,309 2,304 2,397 2,554 2,628 2,592 2,505 2,437 2,381 2,337 2,326 2,323 Expansion Demand 14-20 -9 99 170 78-44 -100-79 -65-51 -14-5 Replacement Demand 45 48 49 51 53 55 57 56 56 56 55 55 55 Job 59 28 40 150 222 133 12-44 -23-9 5 41 50 Net New Positions 0-15 -5 93 157 74-36 -87-68 -56-44 -11-3 Labour Force 2,604 2,580 2,584 2,644 2,774 2,855 2,834 2,758 2,688 2,628 2,585 2,573 2,565 Net New 60 24 53 110 184 135 36-20 -15-3 12 43 49 New Entrants 56 55 54 54 56 57 55 53 51 50 49 48 48 International 22 64-4 32 26 11-23 -53-58 -37-16 13 19 9-23 16 46 87 73 9-128 -86-52 -38-7 -9 Labour Force -27-72 -13-22 15-6 -5 108 78 36 17-11 -9 Average Age 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 43 43 43 43 43 Market Tightness 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 Moving in Moving in Moving in Moving in Moving in Moving in Lag Low High Low High High Low Low Low Low International Reliance High None High Medium Low None Low Low Low None High High Loss of Experience High High High Low Low Medium High Low Low Low High High High Steamfitters, Pipefitters and Sprinkler System Installers (NOC 7252) 15

Northern BC, Low Investment Scenario Historical Data Hiring y Index 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Forecast Employment 286 326 307 291 290 295 301 304 304 306 308 305 296 Expansion Demand -51 45-22 -19-1 5 6 3 0 1 2-4 -10 Replacement Demand 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Job -45 51-15 -12 6 13 14 11 8 10 10 5-2 Net New Positions 0 40-19 -16-1 5 6 3 0 2 2-3 -9 Labour Force 324 361 349 331 330 336 343 346 346 346 347 342 333 Net New -28 44-5 -9 6 14 15 11 8 9 9 4-1 New Entrants 8 9 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 International 1 15 0 8-1 4 8 2 2-1 1 3 4-7 -47-3 -38 2-15 -26-8 -6 1 0 0-1 Labour Force -30 67-10 13-2 17 25 9 4 1 0-7 -12 Average Age 43 43 43 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 Market Tightness 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Lag Low High International Reliance High Moving in Moving in No Low Low Low Low Low Low High High No None High Medium Medium None Medium Loss of Experience Low Low Low Low High Medium Medium High High High High High Low Steamfitters, Pipefitters and Sprinkler System Installers (NOC 7252) 16

Northern BC, Moderate Investment Scenario Historical Data Hiring y Index 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Forecast Employment 286 326 307 293 297 310 322 326 330 325 315 306 294 Expansion Demand -51 45-22 -16 4 14 12 4 4-7 -11-10 -14 Replacement Demand 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 Job -45 51-15 -9 11 22 20 13 12 2-3 -2-6 Net New Positions 0 40-19 -14 4 13 12 4 4-5 -10-9 -12 Labour Force 324 361 349 333 333 345 360 365 367 361 351 343 332 Net New -28 44-5 -8 8 19 24 14 9 3-1 1-4 New Entrants 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 International 1 15 0 15 0 1 6 1 0-1 -3 6-1 -7-47 -3-69 0 4 17 1 1-6 -11 8 1 Labour Force -30 67-10 38 0 6-7 4 0 2 5-21 -11 Average Age 43 43 43 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 Market Tightness 3 4 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 Lag Low High International Reliance High No Moving in Moving in Moving in Moving in Moving in Moving in Low High High Low Low High None Low Medium Low None None Loss of Experience Low Low Low Low Medium Medium Medium Medium High High Low Low Low Steamfitters, Pipefitters and Sprinkler System Installers (NOC 7252) 17

Northern BC, High Investment Scenario Historical Data Hiring y Index 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Forecast Employment 286 326 307 304 325 341 342 335 331 323 308 299 291 Expansion Demand -51 45-22 -4 23 17 0-9 -5-10 -16-11 -10 Replacement Demand 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 Job -45 51-15 4 31 25 9-1 4-1 -8-3 -2 Net New Positions 0 40-19 -3 21 16 1-7 -4-8 -15-9 -8 Labour Force 324 361 349 342 358 374 380 373 368 359 346 337 328 Net New -28 44-5 0 24 23 15 1 3 0-5 -1-2 New Entrants 8 9 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 International 1 15 0 0 1 1 2-2 -1-3 -9 4 11-7 -47-3 -1 6 12 7-2 -3-6 -12-1 -14 Labour Force -30 67-10 -7 9 2-3 -3-1 1 8-12 -6 Average Age 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 44 44 44 Market Tightness 3 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 Lag Low High International Reliance High Moving in Moving in Moving in High High Low Low Low Medium None None Loss of Experience Low Low Low High Low Low High Low High Low Low Low Low Steamfitters, Pipefitters and Sprinkler System Installers (NOC 7252) 18

Lower Mainland, Low Investment Scenario Historical Data Hiring y Index 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Forecast Employment 1,073 1,105 1,067 1,084 1,075 1,051 1,025 1,017 1,023 1,039 1,077 1,107 1,114 Expansion Demand 20 34-43 17-12 -27-30 -11 5 17 41 33 8 Replacement Demand 23 23 24 24 24 24 24 23 23 23 23 24 24 Job 42 58-19 40 12-3 -7 13 29 40 64 56 31 Net New Positions 0 32-38 17-9 -24-26 -8 6 16 38 30 7 Labour Force 1,201 1,227 1,196 1,205 1,203 1,185 1,161 1,151 1,152 1,161 1,191 1,220 1,229 Net New 42 50-7 31 23 6 1 14 23 32 53 53 33 New Entrants 26 26 25 24 24 23 22 22 21 21 22 22 22 International 16 43-22 10-1 -15-27 -13 5 22 37 30 13-3 -5-7 5 0 4 15 7-2 -4 2 6 2 Labour Force 3-14 -3-8 0-6 -9-2 -1-7 -8-5 -4 Average Age 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 Market Tightness 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 Low Low Moving in No Moving in Moving in Moving in Low Moderate Moving in Moving in Moving in Lag Low High Low High Low Low Low High High High Medium Low International Reliance High High None None None None Medium High Loss of Experience Medium Medium Low Medium High Low Low High High Medium Medium Medium High Steamfitters, Pipefitters and Sprinkler System Installers (NOC 7252) 19

Lower Mainland, Moderate Investment Scenario Historical Data Hiring y Index 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Forecast Employment 1073 1105 1067 1092 1108 1113 1099 1095 1097 1103 1122 1134 1131 Expansion Demand 20 34-43 25 16 3-16 -7 1 6 21 13-3 Replacement Demand 23 23 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 Job 42 58-19 49 40 28 8 17 25 30 45 37 21 Net New Positions 0 32-38 25 16 5-14 -4 2 6 19 12-3 Labour Force 1,201 1,227 1,196 1,209 1,225 1,232 1,220 1,213 1,211 1,213 1,228 1,242 1,242 Net New 42 50-7 38 41 30 13 18 21 26 39 37 23 New Entrants 26 26 25 25 24 24 23 23 22 22 22 22 22 International 16 43-22 15 12 4-10 -7-1 6 20 17 2-3 -5-7 8 5 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 Labour Force 3-14 -3-10 0 2-2 0 0-2 -6-4 -1 Average Age 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 Market Tightness 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Low Low Moving in Moving in No Moving in Moving in No No Moving in Moving in Lag Low High Low High Low Low Low Low High High High Low Low International Reliance High No High High Medium None None None Medium High Low Loss of Experience Medium Medium Low Medium Medium High High High High High Medium Medium High Steamfitters, Pipefitters and Sprinkler System Installers (NOC 7252) 20

Lower Mainland, High Investment Scenario Historical Data Hiring y Index 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Forecast Employment 1,073 1,105 1,067 1,128 1,185 1,199 1,172 1,145 1,125 1,112 1,106 1,109 1,111 Expansion Demand 20 34-43 65 61 13-31 -32-23 -15-6 3 3 Replacement Demand 23 23 24 24 25 25 25 25 24 24 24 24 24 Job 42 58-19 89 85 38-6 -7 2 9 18 27 27 Net New Positions 0 32-38 61 57 14-27 -27-20 -13-6 3 2 Labour Force 1,201 1,227 1,196 1,237 1,287 1,305 1,280 1,253 1,233 1,218 1,215 1,220 1,223 Net New 42 50-7 65 74 42 0-3 5 10 20 30 28 New Entrants 26 26 25 25 25 25 24 23 23 22 22 22 22 International 16 43-22 33 25 9-24 -43-46 -27-3 9 7-3 -5-7 25 24 4 2 10 10 4 0 0 0 Labour Force 3-14 -3-18 0 4-2 7 18 11 1-1 -1 Average Age 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 43 43 43 Market Tightness 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 Low Low Lag Low High Low High High Low International Reliance High Moving in Moving in Moving in Moving in Moving in Moving in Moving in High Medium No No No Low Low Low Low None None None High Medium Loss of Experience Medium Medium Low Low Low Medium Low Low High High High High High Steamfitters, Pipefitters and Sprinkler System Installers (NOC 7252) 21