EQUITY STRATEGY
QUARTERLY INVESTMENT STRATEGY 19 GLOBAL EQUITY Sector Asset Allocation N + Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Financials Healthcare Real Estate Technology Telecommunications We have a positive outlook for global equities underpinned by improving growth in advanced economies, modest earnings growth, strong corporate profitability, the prospect of capital returns (dividends and share repurchases), and comparatively attractive valuations. Given the cyclical pickup in demand, we are overweight the consumer discretionary and technology sectors, which continue to benefit from rising household expenditure. These sectors also provide exposure to the continued strong growth of consumers in the emerging economies. The technology sector should in addition benefit from the recovery in corporate expenditure and IT upgrade cycle, which had been suppressed due to prior uncertainties. Given the eventual pick-up in capacity utilisation in the advanced world, we expect to move the industrials sector to an overweight position in the future. For the time being we continue to remain overweight the healthcare and consumer staples sectors. The former continues to offer good growth prospects, while the latter is more attractively valued. We continue to underweight the more deep cyclical sectors, energy and materials. The positive trend in resource prices has provided these sectors some breathing space, and longer-term capital expenditure (capex) reduction should help to restore the supply/demand balance and profitability trends for the mining industry. However, the ongoing uncertainty over the demand picture for resources from the emerging world (China in particular), and continued cost pressures by producers, causes us to adopt a more defensive posture. We have also adopted a more cautious stance on interest rate-sensitive sectors that could be adversely impacted by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) s taper of asset purchases, and the anticipated increase in global interest rates. We are underweight the telecommunications and utilities sectors, as they tend to be highly geared and are more impacted adversely by interest rate increases. UOB Asset Management
20 QUARTERLY INVESTMENT STRATEGY Regional Asset Allocation N + Developed US Europe Japan Canada Australia EMERGING Asia (ex Japan) Latam Emea * 3-6 month horizon In terms of our regional allocation, we prefer developed markets over emerging markets, given the divergence in broader growth trajectories, the effects of capital flows (due to taper) and perceived risks to earnings expectations from shifting revenue and cost trends. Our largest overweight is the US. We are neutral Europe and underweight most other regions. While prospects in Europe have improved, the Eurozone continues to face challenges from high unemployment, balance sheet deleveraging (particularly the financial sector), and imbalances internally. Whether the European Central Bank (ECB) will be able to fully counteract the deflationary pressures evident in much of the Eurozone is unclear. Because of this mixed economic picture, opportunities in Europe tend to be more country, sector and company-specific in nature. Companies that benefit from global growth remain in focus. We are underweight Japan. Concerns linger over the long-term efficacy of Abenomics and the so-called third arrow growth strategy. However, there are opportunities in the beneficiaries of Japan s quantitative easing. The pending consumption tax increase in April will have to be watched closely. We continue to underweight emerging markets. Cyclical challenges and structural reforms are reducing growth over the near term and are negatively affecting corporate earnings prospects. The region could suffer further from capital flow reversals due to monetary tightening by the Fed, as noted in currency declines registered in 2013. 2014 is an election year in a number of countries (Brazil, Indonesia, India, Turkey and South Africa), which may add to uncertainty. However, we note that valuations have started to look more interesting, and we may seek to add to our exposure in the future. The emerging markets are not homogenous, and we note that interesting opportunities are already arising (e.g., Indonesia). Hence, investors will need to be focused and nimble. Please refer to the last page for the important notice & disclaimer.
QUARTERLY INVESTMENT STRATEGY 21 Asia Pacific Equity Sector Allocation Region Allocation -3.9-1.9 Telecommunication Services - 1.8-1.6 Japan -3.9 Financials - 0.3 0.7 Asia Ex Jp 0.8 Health Care Consumer Staples 1.1 1.7 Australia & NZ 3.1 Information Technology 3.0 Consumer Discretionary 3.0 our representative strategy against the benchmark, MSCI AC Asia Pacific. our representative strategy against the benchmark, MSCI AC Asia Pacific. Our representative Asia Pacific strategy is currently overweight the consumer discretionary and technology sectors (see above chart). This is similar to the position of our global strategy. Similarly, the strategy is underweight the energy and materials sectors due to concerns over China s rebalancing and reforms. The current positioning of the Asia Pacific strategy is to be overweight Australia and underweight Japan. The positioning is a result of bottom-up securities selection and does not necessarily reflect a view on the broader index. For example the overweight position in Australia is mainly due to the relative attractiveness of Australian financials. Similarly, the underweight position in Japan reflects a concern of the prospects for Japanese financials, due to both operating prospects and valuations that are relatively less attractive. UOB Asset Management
22 QUARTERLY INVESTMENT STRATEGY Asia ex-japan Equity Sector Allocation Country Allocation Cons Discre IT Healthcare Cons Staples Real Estate Telecom Svc Fin (Ex. RE) China Hongkong Indonesia Philippines Thailand India Singapore Korea Malaysia Taiwan our representative strategy against the benchmark, MSCI AC Asia ex Japan. our representative strategy against the benchmark, MSCI AC Asia ex Japan. Our representative Asia ex-japan strategy is currently overweight the consumer discretionary, healthcare and industrials sectors (see above chart). Like the global and Asia Pacific strategies, it is underweight the materials and energy sectors. The technology sector should benefit from the improving global growth outlook as companies look to increase their capital expenditures given a hiatus of investments post the global financial crisis. The current positioning of the Asia strategy is to be overweight China, Indonesia and Hong Kong. It is underweight Taiwan, Malaysia, and Korea. The country positioning is a result of bottom-up securities selection, and does not necessarily reflect a view on the broader index. For example, much of the overweight position in China is due to exposures within the technology and consumer sectors which offer attractive growth. Please refer to the last page for the important notice & disclaimer.
QUARTERLY INVESTMENT STRATEGY 23 ASEAN Equity Sector Allocation Country Allocation Healthcare Indonesia Fin - RE Fin - ex. RE Telecom Svc Cons Discre Cons Staples Philippines Singapore Thailand Malaysia our representative strategy against the benchmark, MSCI South East Asia. our representative strategy against the benchmark, MSCI South East Asia. Our representative Asean strategy is currently overweight the energy, healthcare and real estate sectors (see above chart). It is underweight the consumer staples, consumer discretionary, materials, industrials and telecommunication sectors. The healthcare and real estate sectors are expected to benefit from increased demand for healthcare services and property respectively as the growing middle income population becomes more affluent. The Asean strategy has turned more positive on Indonesia given the country s improving macroeconomic outlook. A narrowing of the current account deficit in the fourth quarter of 2013 as well as the stabilising rupiah, inflation and bond yields support the overweight call. The strategy is underweight Malaysia, has reduced exposure in Singapore to neutral weight and kept the Philippines and Thailand at neutral. UOB Asset Management