The South West Its People and Future John Henstridge Data Analysis Australia UDIA Bunker Bay 2004
Overview The Myth Population movements Population Structure How we understand it Forecast models The Grey Migration Future UDIA Bunker Bay May 2004 - Page 2
South West Twelve shires Harvey Bunbury Dardanup Collie Historically: Timber Dairy Agriculture Coal Busselton Augusta- Margaret River Capel Nannup Donnybrook- Balingup Bridgetown- Greenbushes Boyup Brook Manjimup Now Growing population UDIA Bunker Bay May 2004 - Page 3
Myth of Australia Country dominated by the outback Open spaces Hot, dry Young UDIA Bunker Bay May 2004 - Page 4
Reality Live along the coast Towns originally connected by ships In the cities Most urbanised nation in the world Getting older UDIA Bunker Bay May 2004 - Page 5
A Statisticians View The numbers and their meaning Look behind sources like the Census Three dimensions Demographic Geography Social and economic And how these combine UDIA Bunker Bay May 2004 - Page 6
The Past Population since 1829 Perth now 75% of state population 2000 Population 1000's 1500 1000 Rest of State Perth 500 0 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 Year 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 UDIA Bunker Bay May 2004 - Page 7
Why Bother with Demographics? Directly impacts development Housing is for people Services are needed for people Health, education etc Planning is a long term business Inertia in population changes UDIA Bunker Bay May 2004 - Page 8
Trends in people, houses 1,400,000 600,000 Both increasing 1,200,000 500,000 1,000,000 Rates critical to 400,000 urban development Persons 800,000 600,000 300,000 Households 200,000 400,000 Detail even more important 200,000 100,000 0 0 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 Year Source: ABS, Perth UDIA Bunker Bay May 2004 - Page 9
Health Needs Accident and Emergency Heavily weighed to the elderly 90 and over 85-89 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 Young adults have a 55-59 50-54 minor peak Accidents Age 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 Females Males 20-24 15-19 Particular services more sensitive For example obstetrics 10-14 5-9 0-4 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Rate per 1000 UDIA Bunker Bay May 2004 - Page 10
Justice Imprisonment Youth orientation Young adult male 60 and over 55-59 50-54 45-49 Urban environment affects crime Age 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 Females Males Employment also critical 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 0 4 8 12 16 Rate per 1000 UDIA Bunker Bay May 2004 - Page 11
South West Today Hub at Bunbury Historically the ports were critical Bunbury had a natural harbour Population now along the coast Total Persons By 2001 Census Collection District 0 to < 230 230 to < 350 350 to < 460 460 to < 590 590 to 1,660 UDIA Bunker Bay May 2004 - Page 12
The Future Planning and investment must be based on forecasts Forecasting is always difficult Especially when applied to the future UDIA Bunker Bay May 2004 - Page 13
Forecasting Population Simple demographics People get older Some die More are born Some move away Some move in Measure using statistics Combine using mathematics UDIA Bunker Bay May 2004 - Page 14
What a Model Looks Like Consider five year age groups And five year time periods E.g. from 1996 to 2001 Match Census years UDIA Bunker Bay May 2004 - Page 15
Let most people age Move to the next age group The one exact thing Some do not make it Age specific mortality Rates well measured but changing Trends complicated with life expectancy increasing UDIA Bunker Bay May 2004 - Page 16
Add in births People produce babies Age specific birth rates Linked to adult females Well measured Births registered Reasonably predictable Rates declining UDIA Bunker Bay May 2004 - Page 17
Subtract emigration Add immigration Both also depend on age Intrastate Interstate Overseas Poorly measured Only from Census Poorly predicted Was linked to economy Now lifestyle important UDIA Bunker Bay May 2004 - Page 18
Put it together Complex when combined Still need to think of gender Most demographers think males irrelevant Ethnicity Difficult!! Do for each area Australia State Local area UDIA Bunker Bay May 2004 - Page 19
Applying to the South West Place the Geography in context Australia State Region Migration the key Interstate Intrastate UDIA Bunker Bay May 2004 - Page 20
Migration is the key Between regions Immigration and emigration Imbalance that is critical to growth Total movements also important UDIA Bunker Bay May 2004 - Page 21
How to measure this Census every five years Australian Census is one of the best in world Records where people were at previous Census Data Analysis Australia has modelled this data Statistical Subdivision (SSD) level 210 regions across Australia By age, sex, ethnicity Age models critical for South West UDIA Bunker Bay May 2004 - Page 22
Total Movements Cities most active Largely economic People move to jobs Source:Data Analysis Australia Population Model UDIA Bunker Bay May 2004 - Page 23
Total Movements Perth dominates in WA Bunbury in the South West Source:Data Analysis Australia Population Model UDIA Bunker Bay May 2004 - Page 24
Balance Green is net growth Movement to the coast Red is net loss Away from the inland Source:Data Analysis Australia Population Model UDIA Bunker Bay May 2004 - Page 25
Balance Perth growing South West mixed Busselton-Augusta growth Coastal Nannup, Manjimup static Inland Older people Source:Data Analysis Australia Population Model UDIA Bunker Bay May 2004 - Page 26
The numbers Vasse the big winner Fraction of Perth 1996 2001 Increase Preston Bunbury 27,641 30,493 10.3% Capel 5,989 7,107 18.7% Collie 9,015 9,072 0.6% Dardanup 6,658 8,955 34.5% Donnybrook-Balingup 4,249 4,691 10.4% Harvey 15,556 18,452 18.6% Total Preston 69,108 78,770 14.0% Vasse Augusta-Margaret River 8,106 10,187 25.7% Busselton 18,158 23,099 27.2% Total Vasse 26,264 33,286 26.7% Blackwood Boyup-Brook 1,747 1,642-6.0% Bridgetown-Greenbushes 4,034 4,188 3.8% Manjimup 10,256 10,309 0.5% Nannup 1,161 1,218 4.9% Total Blackwood 17,198 17,357 0.9% Total South West 112,570 129,413 15.0% Total State 1,765,256 1,901,159 7.7% UDIA Bunker Bay May 2004 - Page 27
Drivers of growth in the South West Usually jobs drive growth Tourism one of the largest One of the hardest to measure in South West Economic benefits widely spread Source: SWDC UDIA Bunker Bay May 2004 - Page 28
Low House Occupancy Many areas have less than two persons per house Holiday houses Retirement couples Transient workers Higher demand for building Limited need for services Persons per Dwelling By 2001 Census Collection District 0.4 to < 1.7 1.7 to < 2.0 2.0 to < 2.2 2.2 to < 2.4 2.4 to < 2.6 2.6 to 3.4 UDIA Bunker Bay May 2004 - Page 29
Population Profile Age profile critical to what society looks like Young families versus old retirees Working versus nonworking Growing population versus static UDIA Bunker Bay May 2004 - Page 30
Age Profile 2001 Regional WA younger and older Misses the 15-24 group Education and jobs are the cause 85 + 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Regional Perth Metro (SD) 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% UDIA Bunker Bay May 2004 - Page 31
Age Profiles Changing Past 50 years a time of transition The past leaves an imprint on the present Who we are Where we live UDIA Bunker Bay May 2004 - Page 32
Ages 1961 85 + Age Profile 1961 Reflects developing country demographics Pre-antibiotic health 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 Australia WA Shaped by the war And the depression Baby boom starting to show 32.5% aged less than 15 >20% at school Age 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% Proportion of Population UDIA Bunker Bay May 2004 - Page 33
Ages 1981 High growth has made WA young Mineral boom Influx from the East Time of major development Age 85 + 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Age Profile 1981 Australia WA 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Proportion of Population UDIA Bunker Bay May 2004 - Page 34
Ages 2001 85 + 80-84 Age profile 2001 Western Australia almost matches all Australia Baby boomers starting to retire Age 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Australia WA Perth 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Proportion of population UDIA Bunker Bay May 2004 - Page 35
What drives it? Births greatly outnumber deaths 25,000 births, 10,000 deaths Will do so for next 20 years Due to young profile Then Births will be static, deaths increase Migration from other states Young people aged 20-35 Looking for jobs Depends strongly upon economy Keeps age profile young Few leaving UDIA Bunker Bay May 2004 - Page 36
Birth rate declining Women having fewer children Declined to 1.7 per woman Not enough to sustain population 4 3 2 Fertility Women having children at a greater age Greater time between generations Slows rate of change 1 0 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 Year UDIA Bunker Bay May 2004 - Page 37
Migration Changing and Declining Australia less attractive to older sources Fewer immigrants from Europe WA less attractive to rest of Australia Resource industries less labour intensive Globalisation reduces Perth operations to branch offices UDIA Bunker Bay May 2004 - Page 38
Grey Migration Not to jobs, but to lifestyle Older, but not necessarily retired Age 55+, stimulated by superannuation rules Towards the coast Small households Small economy? Not sustainable in the long term UDIA Bunker Bay May 2004 - Page 39
Implications for Housing Population growth declining Current growth half due to aging This will disappear in 30 years Growth fed by migration This might slow Housing demand driven by lower occupancy Not more people, just more houses New types of housing required Fewer bedrooms UDIA Bunker Bay May 2004 - Page 40
Household Size Heading down Continuing trend since 1960 4 Average Household Size Many reasons Older people more likely to be alone and there are more old people Children more likely to leave home 3 2 1 0 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 Change in definition in 1985 UDIA Bunker Bay May 2004 - Page 41
Household Structure Increase in small households Large households static 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 1991 1996 2001 Dramatic change for only 10 years 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 1 2 3 4 5 6+ Household Size UDIA Bunker Bay May 2004 - Page 42
Future of the South West Adjunct to Perth Migration from Perth Second homes for Perth residents Tourism is overwhelming from Perth Perth demographics changing Growth is slowing Many retiring singles and couples Continuing importance of coast Bunbury, Busselton, Margaret River UDIA Bunker Bay May 2004 - Page 43
How long will it take? Age profile 2001 Next 25 years will see population bulge reach limit Flat profile Low growth will follow New definition of elderly in community Age 85 + 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Australia WA Perth 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Proportion of population UDIA Bunker Bay May 2004 - Page 44
Implications for Developments Next 25 years will see growth Primarily along the coast Housing might triple between Busselton and Augusta Continued low occupancy Holiday houses Fewer big family homes UDIA Bunker Bay May 2004 - Page 45
One Scenario 120,000 100,000 80,000 Statistical Subdivisions Blackwood Bunbury Preston Vasse 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Source: data Analysis Australia Population Model UDIA Bunker Bay May 2004 - Page 46
Summary Must understand the future population Forecasts are not certain What might happen is as important for planning as what will happen Continual refinements are being made Characteristics as important as the numbers South West economy is critical Interacts with population size Critical mass for services Retention of young people UDIA Bunker Bay May 2004 - Page 47
Thank you This talk will be on