ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS FEDERAL RESERVE BALANCE SHEET Assets and Liabilities 2-3 REAL ESTATE Construction Spending 4 CoreLogic Home Price Index 5 Mortgage Rates and Applications 6-7 CONSUMER BEHAVIOR Income, Spending, and Light Vehicle Sales 8-9 Consumer Confidence: Expectations 1 LABOR MARKETS Nonfarm Payroll Employment and Benchmark Revisions 11-12 Unemployment and Labor Force Participation Rates 13 MANUFACTURING ISM Purchasing Managers Index 14 TREASURY YIELDS 15 BREAKEVEN INFLATION RATES 16 FEBRUARY 6, 213
FEDERAL RESERVE BALANCE SHEET Between January 23 and January 3, the Federal Reserve s balance sheet decreased by $2.6 billion. The overall size of the balance sheet was essentially unchanged at $3.1 trillion. 3, 2,7 2,4 2,1 1,8 1,5 1,2 9 6 3 Federal Reserve Assets (Uses of Funds) $ billions Currency Swaps Agency Debt & MBS Lending to Nonbank Credit Markets Short-Term lending to Financials Other Treasuries Dec-7 Jun-8 Dec-8 Jun-9 Dec-9 Jun-1 Dec-1 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Source: Federal Reserve Board through January 3, 213 ADDITIONAL DETAIL Treasuries increased by $13.4 billion while MBS and agency debt decreased by $17.4 billion. Note that agency debt and MBS typically increase mid-month as a result of settlements and decline the week after as a result of prepayments. More detail is available on the New York Fed s website. Since mid-august 212, decreased use of swap lines by foreign central banks has caused the balance sheet to contract by $22 billion. According to the New York Fed s tentative outright Treasury operation schedule, the desk plans to purchase approximately $44 billion in Treasury securities over the month of February. This amount is approximately $1 billion less than the stated pace of $45 billion per month, given that purchases conducted in January exceeded the target by approximately $1 billion. 2
FEDERAL RESERVE BALANCE SHEET Between January 23 and January 3, bank reserve balances with the Federal Reserve increased by $48.7 billion, while Treasury deposits with the Federal Reserve decreased by $9.9 billion. As of January 3, 213, bank reserves held at the Federal Reserve were $1.64 trillion. 3, 2,7 2,4 2,1 1,8 1,5 1,2 9 6 3 Treasury SFP Other Federal Reserve Liabilities (Sources of Funds) $ billions Banks Reserve Balances Currency in Circulation Dec-7 Jun-8 Dec-8 Jun-9 Dec-9 Jun-1 Dec-1 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Source: Federal Reserve Board SFP=Supplemental Financing Program through January 3, 213 ADDITIONAL DETAIL Reverse repurchase agreements with foreign officials and international accounts increased by $8.5 billion. Other nonreserve deposits, which include balances of international and multilateral organizations with accounts at the New York Fed, such as the International Monetary Fund, United Nations, International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (World Bank); the special checking account of the ESF (where deposits from monetizing SDRs would be placed); and balances of a few U.S. government agencies (such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) decreased by $48.2 billion. 3
REAL ESTATE The U.S. Census Bureau reported that total construction spending and nonresidential construction spending growth continued to decelerate on a year-over-year basis while residential construction spending growth remained robust in December. 3 2 1-1 U.S. Construction Spending year-over-year percent change -2-3 -4 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 through December 212 Total Nonresidential Residential Source: U.S. Census Bureau December 212 Construction Spending Put in Place Billions, SAAR M/M Y/Y Total Total Private Total Public Total Nonresidential Private Nonresidential Public Nonresidential Total Residential Private Residential 885. 614.9 27.1 57.4 36.7 263.7 314.6 38.2.9% 2.% -1.4%.3% 1.8% -1.4% 2.1% 2.2% 7.8% 15.% -5.6% 1.2% 7.6% -5.3% 22.3% 23.6% 4
REAL ESTATE The October CoreLogic home price indexes continued to improve in December on a year-over-year basis. The CoreLogic home price index including distressed properties increased 8.3 percent compared with a year earlier while the home price index, excluding distressed properties, increased 7.5 percent. 2 15 1 5-5 U.S. CoreLogic Home Price Index indexed, January 2 = 1 HPI excluding distressed properties 8.3 7.5-1 -15 HPI including distressed properties -2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 through December 212 Source: CoreLogic 5
REAL ESTATE According to Freddie Mac s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the average rate for a 3-year fixed rate mortgage increased 11 basis points (bps) over the week ending January 31, to 3.53 percent. This is the first week the average 3-year fixed-rate mortgage rate has been above 3.5 percent since September 13, 212. The average rate for a 15- year fixed-rate mortgage increased 1 bps to 2.81 percent over the week ending January 31. 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Mortgage Rates percent 15-Year Fixed: 2.81 3-Year Fixed: 3.53 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 Sources: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey through January 31, 213 6
REAL ESTATE According to the Mortgage Bankers Association s Weekly Applications Survey, mortgage loan applications for refinancing increased 4 percent over the week ending February 1. Applications for purchase increased 2 percent over the same period and are at their highest level since the week ending May 7, 21. 11 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 Mortgage Loan Applications Volume Index March 16, 199 = 1 Refinances 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 1 Purchases 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 Source: Mortgage Bankers Association through February 1, 213 7
CONSUMER BEHAVIOR Personal income rose sharply in December. According to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the large jump in December was the result of accelerated bonus payments and accelerated dividend payments made in anticipation of tax law changes. Real personal disposal income grew 2.8 percent in December. Real consumer spending increased.2 percent in December. Durable goods grew 1.3 percent over the month, nondurables grew.3 percent, and spending on services was essentially unchanged. 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 -8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 Source: BEA Real Personal Consumption Expenditures seasonally adjusted, year-over-year percent change Real PCE (right axis): 2.24% Real Nondurable Goods: 1.46% Real Services: 1.33% Real Durable Goods (right axis): 9.67% Real Personal Disposable Income(right axis): 5.61% through December 212 16 12 8 4-4 -8-12 -16 ADDITIONAL DETAIL Real disposable personal income is personal income minus taxes and adjusted for inflation. 8
CONSUMER BEHAVIOR Light vehicles sales decreased slightly in January, falling at a -.6 percent seasonally adjusted annual rate of 15.3 million units. 25 2 Light Vehicle Sales millions of units, SAAR Sales of domestic vehicles are almost back to prerecession levels. Sales of domestic light vehicles are currently 2 percent below levels in November 27 while sales of imported light vehicles are 13 percent below. 15 1 5 Total Domestic Imported 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 through January 213 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis ADDITIONAL DETAIL Note: Light vehicle sales include all cars and light trucks up to 14, pounds. Domestic sales include autos produced in the United States, Canada, and Mexico. 9
CONSUMER BEHAVIOR Final measures of consumer expectations as measured by the University of Michigan improved from the preliminary mid-month reading (not shown), suggesting any concern from consumers might have been short-lived. The mid-month reading from the Conference Board also indicated a drop, mostly the result of changes in income expectations. The components measuring the current situation in both surveys have improved since the summer of 211 but remain below prerecession levels. 6. 4. 2.. -2. -4. -6. -8. Consumer Confidence Indices Measuring Expectations relative to level in June 27 University Of Michigan - Expectations (NSA) Conference Board Consumer Confidence - Expectations(SA) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 through January 213 Sources: The Conference Board, Reuters/University of Michigan, Bloomberg ADDITIONAL DETAIL The expectations component of University of Michigan survey increased 2.8 points in January, following a 13.9 point drop in December and a 1.3 point drop in November. The expectations component of the Conference Board survey declined 8.6 points in the mid-january reading, following a 12.8 point drop in December and a 3.1 point drop in November. The future components of both the Conference Board and Reuters/University of Michigan survey utilize fairly similar underlying questions. 1
LABOR MARKETS The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported last Friday that payrolls rose by 157, in January 213. The BLS also revised payrolls upward for the last few months of 212, particularly for November and December. 6 4 2 Contributions to Change in Nonfarm Payroll Employment thousands, SA 157 Last year, employment growth averaged 181, per month, higher than the roughly 153, per month originally estimated, the result of the BLS s usual monthly revisions for November and December and the annual benchmark revision, which raised 1 months payroll numbers over the year. More detail on the benchmark revision is on the next page. -2-4 -6-8 -1 29 21 211 212 213 Other Services & Gov Leisure & Hosp Professional & Business Retail Trade Goods Producing Total nonfarm Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics through January 213 ADDITIONAL DETAIL In January, the most significant payroll gains were seen in retail trade (up 33,), construction (up 28,), and health care (up 23,). In the chart above, construction takes up the vast majority of the gain in Goods Producing industries; manufacturing, the other large component of the category, gained just 4, payrolls in January, mostly in the production of motor vehicles and parts. 11
45 68 87 87 112 125 143 132 138 153 165 137 16 161 155 181 25 192 196 247 275 259 271 311 LABOR MARKETS Annually, the BLS releases its benchmark revision. With this release, seasonally adjusted data from January 28 have been revised to include a more comprehensive count of payrolls. The chart to the right compares the pre-benchmark payroll growth estimate with post-benchmark payroll growth. 35 3 25 2 15 1 Monthly Difference in Payrolls, Pre- and Post- Benchmark Revision Thousands, SA, January 212-December 212 and January 213 157 5 ADDITIONAL DETAIL -5 Pre-Benchmark Payroll Growth Estimate Post-Benchmark Payroll Growth -1 Difference (thous.) Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics See more information on the BLS s benchmarking procedures, including methodology and an explanation of why benchmarks differ from original estimates. 12
LABOR MARKETS The unemployment rate ticked up slightly to reach 7.9 percent in January. This followed an unemployment rate of 7.8 percent in December 212. Excluding the effects of rounding, the actual increase in the unemployment rate was less than.1 percentage point. The labor force participation rate stayed the same in January. It has remained at 63.6 percent since November 212, when it fell from 63.8 percent in October 212. 12 1 8 6 4 Unemployment and Labor Force Participation Rates percent, SA 68 Unemployment Rate (left axis) January 213 = 7.9% 67 Participation Rate (right axis) January 213 = 63.6% 66 65 64 2 63 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics through January 213 13
MANUFACTURING The Institute for Supply Management s (ISM) Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) of manufacturers gained 2.9 index points in January to reach 53.1, its highest point since April 212. The gains were broadly based across the index s components. The new orders index, which is seen as a leading indicator of future manufacturing activity, gained 3.6 index points to reach 53.3. 7 6 5 4 3 ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Index: 5 or greater indicates expansion, less than 5 indicates contraction; SA Purchasing Managers Index New Orders Production Employment ADDITIONAL DETAIL 2 29 21 211 212 213 Source: Institute for Supply Management through January 213 Other components of the PMI that gained ground in January included production (up 1. index point to reach 53.6 points) and employment (up 2.1 index points to reach 54. points). The inventories index also surged 8. index points to reach 51. points, taking that component from contraction to expansion territory in the index. Supplies were delivered just a bit more slowly in January than in December 212, according to the index. The supplier-deliveries measure slipped just.1 index point to reach 53.6 points in January. 14
TREASURY YIELDS Longer-term U.S. Treasury yields are little changed since the January FOMC meeting. The 1-year note and the 3- year bond now yield about 1.98 percent and 3.19 percent, respectively. 3.5 3. December FOMC U.S. Treasury Yields daily, percent Fiscal Cliff Deal January FOMC 1..8 However, since the December 12 FOMC statement which reiterated the Committee s intention to purchase $45 billion of Treasury securities as well as $4 billion of agency MBS per month and following the fiscal cliff deal, Treasury yields have moved noticeably higher. The 3-year bond is up 3 bps, and the 1-year higher by 28 bps, since December 12; with increases of 24 bps and 22 bps, respectively, since the fiscal cliff deal. 2.5.6 2..4 1.5.2 1.. 1-Nov 8-Nov 15-Nov 22-Nov 29-Nov 6-Dec 13-Dec 2-Dec 27-Dec 3-Jan 1-Jan 17-Jan 24-Jan 31-Jan 7-Feb 1-yr (LHS) 3-yr (LHS) 5-yr (RHS) 2-yr (RHS) through February 6, 213 Source: Bloomberg 15
BREAKEVEN INFLATION RATE The Barclays 5-year/5-year forward breakeven inflation rate is currently at 2.89 percent, roughly stable since September 212 but getting close to the peak of readings since January 211. 3.25 3. 2.75 Barclays 5-year/5-year forward breakeven inflation rate percent January FOMC 2.89 (Note: The breakeven inflation rate is a measure of expected inflation derived from nominal Treasury securities and their real counterparts inflationprotected TIPS securities.) 2.5 2.25 2. 1.75 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Source: Barclays Capital through February 6, 213 16