Bank of Thailand, December Supply Farm income continued to decline from decreased agricultural prices which outweighed the expansion in agricultural production Manufacturing production expanded from the same period last year The overall services sector slightly decreased from the previous month, particularly from wholesale trade sectors Nominal Farm Income (%YoY) H1 Q3 Q4 Nov Dec Nominal farm incomep 39 13 7 Agricultural productionp - 67 19 Agricultural price 36-27 Note: Farm income does not include government subsidies and transfers Source: Office of Agricultural Economics and calculated by BOT Index sa ( = ) 7 213 Real Farm Income Real farm income sa Real farm income sa, 3mma Source: Office of Agricultural Economics and calculated by BOT (%YOY) Manufacturing Production Index (MPI) Weight 11 Food & Beverages Automotives - Vehicle - Engine Rubbers & Plastics IC & Semiconductors Textiles & Apparels Chemicals Cement & Construction Electrical Appliances Petroleum HDD Others MPI MPI sa % from last period - - - P = Preliminary data Seasonally adjusted by Bank of Thailand Source: Office of Industrial Economics H1 Q3 Q4 Nov Dec p Dec P (Cont) Dec P (%MoM) Index sa ( = ) Manufacturing Production Index (MPI) Export < 3% 3% < Export < % Export > % Source: Office of Industrial Economics, calculated by Bank of Thailand %MoM sa -13% -4% -4%
Bank of Thailand, December Index sa ( = ) Other Manufacturing Indicators Electricity used in industry Import quantity of raw materials Index of hours worked in manufacturing (3mma) %MoM sa Source: NSO, OIE, Customs Department and seasonally adjusted by Bank of Thailand -17% 53% 17% (%) Food & Beverages Automotives Rubbers & Plastics IC & Semiconductors Textiles & Apparels Chemicals Cement & Construction Electrical Appliances Petroleum HDD Others CAPU sa Weight 211 Capacity Utilization (sa) P = Preliminary data Seasonally adjusted by Bank of Thailand Source: Office of Industrial Economics Q3 Q4 Q2 Q3 Q4 Nov Dec p ( = ) 13 Trade Sector Transportation Sector Business Services Communication Sector (RHS) Registration Fee for Real Estate (RHS) Services Sector Indicators ( = ) 1 Note: Sales from VAT collection in trade, transportation, business services, and communication sectors, latest data estimated by Bank of Thailand Share in GDP : Trade (151%), Transportation (57%), Telecommunication (15%), Business Services (7%), and Real estate (25%) Source: Department of Tourism, The Revenue Department,and Department of Land 14 ( = ) 15 125 75 5 Other Services Sector Indicators Number of Foreign Tourists Thai Visitors BTS Ridership (Sky Train) Revenue of The Transport Co Ltd Source: The Tourism Authority of Thailand, Department of Tourism, The Transport Co Ltd, Bangkok Mass Transit System, calculated by Bank of Thailand
Bank of Thailand, December New Mortgage Loans from Commercial Banks in Bangkok and Vicinity Area* Thousand units,sa 3 25 2 15 1 5 212 213 * seasonally adjusted by BOT Low-rise residents Condominium Total Q4 177 93 84 Newly Launched Properties in Bangkok and Vicinity Area Thousand units 45 Low-rise residents Condominium Total 4 35 Q4 3 242 25 2 132 15 1 11 5 212 213 Source Agency for Real Estate Affairs AREA and calculated by BOT Housing Price index Index (29 = ) 1 Single house Townhouse 1 Condominium Land 14 Q4 1783 1754 1437 1339 212 Source BOT 213
Bank of Thailand, December 22 Domestic demand Private consumption expanded at a slower pace due to decelerated spending in the services sector, while spending on non-durable and semi-durable goods contracted Fundamental factors supporting the overall household purchasing power was not yet robust Private investment remained unchanged from the previous month Public spending, excluding transfers, contracted from the same period last year, due to decline in capital spending Private Consumption Indicators % YoY 2 R H1 Q3 Q4 P Nov Dec P Dec P (%MoM) Non-durable Index 22 Semi-durable Index R Durable Index 2 Service Index E R E 2 E (less) Net tourist spending 22 2 2 Private Consumption Index 2 7 R Note: %MoM is calculated from seasonally adjusted data P = Preliminary Data, E = Estimated Data, R = Revised Data (212 = ) Durable Index and Semi-durable Index Durable Index (212 = ) Semi-durable Index (RHS) 15 95 (212 = ) 115 15 95 85 Nielsen s FMCG Index & Fuel Index Nielsen s FMCG Index Fuel Index P (RHS) (212 = ) 1 145 13 115 P = Preliminary Data Source: The Nielsen company and Department of Energy Business, calculated by Bank of Thailand 85 (212 = ) 15 14 13 Service Index* & Net Tourist Spending Index Service Index (212 = ) 22 Net Tourist Spending Index** (RHS Note: * Combination of 1) hotel and restaurant VAT and 2) transportation sales ** Expenditure of non-resident in Thailand subtracted by expenditure of resident abroad 2 1 1 14 Consumer Confidence Index Diffusion Index, sa (Unchanged = 5) 5 4 3 Agriculture Non-Agriculture 2 Source: Ministry of Commerce, calculated by Bank of Thailand 416 393 % YoY Permitted Construction Area (9mma) H1 Q3 Q4 P Nov Dec P DecP (%MoM) 2 2 Construction Materials Index 2 2 2 2 Real Imports of Capital Goods 2 2 Real Domestic Machinery Sales Private Investment Indicators E 2 E E Car Sales for Investment 2 2 2 2 Private Investment Index 2 2 Note: %MoM is calculated from seasonally adjusted, 3-month moving average data P = Preliminary Data E = Estimated Data Source : Bank of Thailand
Bank of Thailand, December Million USD sa, 3mma 6, 5, 4, Equipment Indicators Imports of Capital Domestic Machinery Sales (Mil Baht, RHS) Car Sales for Investment (Unit, RHS) 85,491 E 4,174 39,887 sa, 3mma, 7, 5, 3, 3, Note: E = Estimated Data, All data is in real terms Source: Federation of Thai Industries, Customs Department, Revenue Department, calculated by Bank of Thailand 1, m 2, 9mma 7, 6, 5, 4, Source: NSO and Bank of Thailand Construction Indicators (21 = ) 14 Permitted Construction Area Construction Material Index (RHS) 115 4,494 13 Diffusion Index (Unchanged = 5) 5 4 BSI 3 Source : Bank of Thailand Business Sentiment Index Expected BSI (next 3 months) Mar 18 561 52 Central government expenditure (excl subsidies/grants and miscellaneous other expense) Billion Baht 1 1 14 Average 213-2 2 Current Expenditure Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Billion Baht Capital Expenditure Dec-17 1279 Billion Baht (-14% YoY) Dec-17 43 Billion Baht (-298% YoY) 4 2 Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Source: Comptroller General s Department and Bank of Thailand Fiscal Position (Cash basis) Billion Baht FY P FY P FY P FY218 P Q2 Q3 Q4 Nov Dec Revenue 2 2 2 2 2 (%YoY) 2 2 Expenditure 1/ 2 2 2 2 2 (%YoY) 22 2 2 Budgetary B/L 2 2 Non-Budgetary B/L 2 2 Cash B/L (CG) 2 2 Primary B/L (CG) 2 2 2 2 2 2 Net Financing 2 2 Treasury B/L 2 2 2 2 2 Note: P = Preliminary data 1/ Exclude principal loan repayment Source: Fiscal Policy Office Comptroller General s Department Bank of Thailand
Bank of Thailand, December 23 The global economy and external sector The current account continued to post a surplus as contributed from improved value of exports and tourism receipts The capital and financial accounts registered a deficit due to: (1) direct investment abroad by Thai corporates, especially food and beverage industry; (2) increase in deposits abroad by commercial banks to adjust their foreign currency position; and (3) trade credits provided by Thai exporters to trading partners in line with the continued expansion of export value Diffusion index (Unchanged = 5) 55 5 G3 Manufacturing PMI US Euro area Japan ( = ) Asian Export Performance PH TH TW INDO CN KR MY SG 45 Source: ISM, Markit Economics 7 Note: Thai export excludes gold Indonesian export excludes oil and gas Source: CEIC, Customs Department, calculated by Bank of Thailand Nov = 212 Bn USD ExGold = 211 Bn USD %YoY Share P P P P H1 Q3 Q4 Nov Dec Dec (%MoM) Agriculture 2 2 2 2 Fishery 2 2 Manufacturing 2 2 Agro-manufacturing 2 2 2 Electronics and Optical Appliances 2 2 2 Electrical Appliances 2 Automotive 2 2 2 Machinery & Equipment 2 2 Petroleum Related 2 Total (BOP Basis) 2 2 Ex Gold 2 2 Ex Gold & Petroleum Related Export Growth Dec = 199 Bn USD ExGold = 196 Bn USD 2 22 %MoM calculated from seasonally adjusted data P = Preliminary data Note: Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total export value is recorded by BOP basis Custom basis considers recording passing through Customs while BOP basis considers changes in ownership between R and NR Source: Compiled from Customs Department s data Nov = 179 Bn USD ExGold = 168 Bn USD %YoY Import Growth Share P P P P H1 Q3 Q4 Nov Dec Dec (%MoM) Consumer 2 2 Raw material & Intermediate 2 o/w Fuel 22 2 222 o/w Raw mat & Interm ex Fuel Dec = 184 Bn USD ExGold = 164 Bn USD 2 2 2 22 2 Capital 2 2 2 Others 2 2 2 2 Total (BOP Basis) 2 Ex Gold 2 2 %MoM calculated from seasonally adjusted data P = Preliminary data Note: Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total import value is recorded by BOP basis Source: Compiled from Customs Department s data
Bank of Thailand, December Financial Account Million USD P P H1 Q3 Q4 Nov Dec E 1 Assets 2 2 2 222 2 TDI 2 2 - Equity 2 2 2 Thai portfolio investment 2 2 2 2 2 2 - Equity sec investment 2 - Debt sec investment 2 2 2 2 2 2 Loans 22 2 Other investments 2 - Trade credits 2 2 - Deposits abroad 2 2 2 2 Liabilities 2 2 FDI 2 2 2 2 - Equity 2 2 2 2 Foreign portfolio investment 2 2 22 - Equity sec investment 2 2 2 2 2 - Debt sec investment 2 2 2 2 Loans 2 2 Other investments 2 - Trade credits 2 - Deposits 2 Total financial flows (1+2) 2 2 2 2 Source : Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data E= Estimated data Balance of Payments Billion USD P P H1 Q3 Q4 Nov Dec E Trade balance 2 Exports (fob) 2 2 2 2 2 2 %YoY 2 2 Imports (fob) 2 2 %YoY Services & income 2 2 2 Current account 2 22 2 Capital and financial account 2 2 2 2 2 Government 2 2 Central bank 2 ODCs 2 2 Others 222 2 2 2 Net error & omissions 2 Overall balance 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 International reserves 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Net forward position 2 2 Source : Bank of Thailand E= Estimated data P = Preliminary data %YoY Source: Ministry of Tourism and Sports Inbound Tourists by Country of Origin Share H1 Q3 Q4 Nov Dec P %MoM sa China 2 2 2 2 2 2 Malaysia 2 2 Asia ex China & 2 22 2 2 2 Malaysia Russia 2 2 2 2 2 2 Europe ex Russia 2 2 2 Others 148 2 Total (million persons) 2 (88) (93) 2 2 (3) (35) 2 Index sa ( = ) 3 25 2 15 5 Inbound Tourists Index Total China (share 28%) Malaysia (share 1%) Asia ex CN MY (share 3%) Europe ex Russia (share 15%) Russia (share 4%) Note: denotes share of total tourist arrivals in 2 Source: Ministry of Tourism and Sports, calculated by Bank of Thailand
-17 Apr-17-17 Oct-17-17 Apr-17-17 Oct-17-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17-18 Bank of Thailand, December 24 Monetary and financial conditions Total corporate financing increased from the previous month, mainly from increased funding through business credits New credit expanded for loans extended to both households and businesses At the end of this month, the Thai baht against the US dollar slightly appreciated, while the NEER slightly depreciated Commercial Bank Interest Rates* % pa /17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 22 18 2-month deposit rate Average of 5 largest banks Average of other banks MLR Average of 5 largest banks Average of other banks MRR Average of 5 largest banks Average of other banks 137 138 633 72 764 851 137 137 633 72 764 851 137 136 628 719 719 833 137 136 628 719 719 833 137 138 628 726 719 836 End of Period Bangkok Bank, Krung Thai Bank, Kasikorn Bank, Siam Commercial Bank and Bank of Ayudhya 137 138 628 726 719 836 % pa 3 25 2 15 1 and ThaiBMA Government Bond Yields As of 22 18 1D BRP 1M 2Y 5Y 1Y 248 181 15 141 11 Billion baht 2 15 5-5 Change in Total Corporate Financing Business Credits (SA) Equity Debt 3MMA Note: Business credits and debt: change in outstanding Equity: new issuance at par value, ThaiBMA, SET New Private Credit Extended by Other Depository Corporations Billion baht % 18 12 6 4-6 -4 MoM, SA % MoM change, SA (RHS) -12 - Household Business -18
3-Dec-15 22--16 12-Feb-16 7-Mar-16 28-Mar-16 22-Apr-16 18-May-16 9-Jun-16 3-Jun-16 26--16 17-Aug-16 7-Sep-16 28-Sep-16 19-Oct-16 1-Nov-16 1-Dec-16 26-Dec-16 18--17 8-Feb-17 2-Mar-17 23-Mar-17 18-Apr-17 11-May-17 1-Jun-17 22-Jun-17 14--17 7-Aug-17 29-Aug-17 19-Sep-17 1-Oct-17 3-Nov-17 24-Nov-17 19-Dec-17 11--18 3-Dec-15 22--16 12-Feb-16 7-Mar-16 28-Mar-16 22-Apr-16 18-May-16 9-Jun-16 3-Jun-16 26--16 17-Aug-16 7-Sep-16 28-Sep-16 19-Oct-16 1-Nov-16 1-Dec-16 26-Dec-16 18--17 8-Feb-17 2-Mar-17 23-Mar-17 18-Apr-17 11-May-17 1-Jun-17 22-Jun-17 14--17 7-Aug-17 29-Aug-17 19-Sep-17 1-Oct-17 3-Nov-17 24-Nov-17 19-Dec-17 11--18 Bank of Thailand, December Index (212 = ) 116 114 112 18 16 14 12 Appreciation USDTHB (RHS) NEER25 Exchange Rates 24 2 8 USDTHB = 3 NEER25 = 1142 Sources: Reuters, calculated by Bank of Thailand USDTHB (reverse) 315 32 325 33 335 34 345 35 355 3 365 55% 45% 35% 25% 15% 5% -5% -15% -25% Changes in Trading Partners Currencies per USD 19% -3% -2% 27% 3% 2% 3% 44% 18% %MoM ( vs Nov 17) %MTD (24 18 vs ) 1% 1% 11% 12% -2% 34% 3% Note: End-period data, + = Appreciation against USD Sources: Reuters, calculated by Bank of Thailand 13% 3% 21% 13% 16% 17% 22% -1% 34% 31% IDR JPY THB GBP SGD PHP MYR INR EUR TWD CNY KRW AUD Regional Exchange Rate Volatility % pa 16% 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % THB CNY IDR KRW MYR PHP As of 24 218 Sources: Reuters, Bank of Thailand
Bank of Thailand, December 25 Financial stability Headline inflation decelerated due mainly to the deceleration of energy and fresh food prices The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate remained unchanged from last month External stability remained strong and resilient to withstand volatility in the global financial markets %YoY 3 2 1-1 -2 Contribution to Headline Inflation Fresh Food (1569%) Energy (1175%) Core Inflation (7256%) ( ) Share in Headline Inflation Headline Inflation 78% -3 Source: Ministry of Commerce, calculated by Bank of Thailand %YoY 3 25 2 15 1 5 Contribution to Core Inflation Rent (1962%) Food and Beverage ex Alcohol (2817%) Other Goods and Services (5221%) ( ) Share in Core Inflation Source: Ministry of Commerce, calculated by Bank of Thailand Core Inflation 62% % 15 1 5 Unemployment Rate Feb Mar Apr May Jun Unemployment rate 1 % Unemployment rate (sa) 12 % Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Note: Data from onward are based on The 21 Population and Housing Census Source: Labor Force Survey, NSO ( =) 115 15 95 85 Employment Index Total Agriculture (31%) Manufacturing (17%) Construction (6%) Trade (17%) Service (29%) Note: Data from onward are based on The 21 Population and Housing Census ( ) denotes share in total employment Source: Labor Force Survey, NSO calculated by BOT
Bank of Thailand, December External Debt Outstanding Billion USD P P Change Dec17-Nov17 H1 Q3 Q4 Nov Dec E Total 1 General government 2 2 25 2 25 2 2 Central Bank* 2 5 5 5 3 Other Depository Corporations (ODC) 5 2 5 5 22 4 Other Sectors 22 5 22 2 22 - Other Financial Corporations 52 5 5 5 5 - Non Financial Corporations O/W Foreign Trade Credit 22 2 22 2 5 2 2 2 5 Total 22 2 Short-term (%) 2 Long-term (%) 5 5 5 5 5 5 Note: *including BOT bonds held by non-residents and SDRs allocations by IMF Source : Bank of Thailand P=Preliminary data E=Estimated data Solvency Indicators Current Account / GDP (%) Debt / GDP (%) < / Debt / XGS 1/ (%) < / Debt Service Ratio (%) Liquidity Indicators Gross Reserves / ST Debt > 1 time Gross Reserves / Imports 2/ > 3 times ST Debt / Total Debt (%) External Stability Indicators Criteria P P Note: XGS Export of Goods and Services (3-year average) Monthly Import of Goods and Services (1-year average) Severely indebted countries Source : Bank of Thailand P=Preliminary data E=Estimated data H1 Q3 Q4 Nov Dec E