esia/perkembangan/

http://afghanaus.com/uanggiral/http://www.bi.go.id/web/id/sistem+pembayaran/sistem+pembayaran+di+indon esia/perkembangan/ http://id.shvoong.com/social-sciences/economics/2129762-jumlah-uang-beredar-diindonesia/ http://www.ollydondokambey.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id =174:asumsi-asumsi-makro-ekonomi-2012&catid=65:artikel&Itemid=202 http://www.bi.go.id/web/id/ http://www.bps.go.id/ LAMPIRAN 1 Gambaran Makro Ekonomi

LAMPIRAN 2 t-statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -4.456831 0.0102 Test critical values: 1% level -4.467895 5% level -3.644963 10% level -3.261452 Variable Coefficnt Std. Error t-statistic Prob. D(Y(-1)) -1.671807 0.375111-4.456831 0.0003 D(Y(-1),2) 0.447621 0.247908 1.805590 0.0887 C -18.66320 9.983700-1.869367 0.0789 @TREND(1988) 3.644977 0.948199 3.844106 0.0013 R-squared 0.628309 Mean dependent var 2.809048

Adjusted R-squared 0.562717 S.D. dependent var 27.49987 S.E. of regression 18.18494 Akaike info criterion 8.808708 Sum squared resid 5621.765 Schwarz criterion 9.007665 Log likelihood -88.49143 F-statistic 9.578989 Durbin-Watson stat 1.957484 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000623

LAMPIRAN 3 Tabel 4.6. Unit Root Test dan Derajat Integrasi dengan ADF Test pada X1 t-statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -3.858913 0.0357 Test critical values: 1% level -4.532598 5% level -3.673616 10% level -3.277364 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-statistic Prob. D(X1(-1)) -0.967415 0.250696-3.858913 0.0014 C -246495.4 135316.2-1.821625 0.0873 @TREND(1988) 46600.21 13985.05 3.332145 0.0042 R-squared 0.488681 Mean dependent var 50770.47 Adjusted R-squared 0.424766 S.D. dependent var 336635.2 S.E. of regression 255318.1 Akaike info criterion 27.88235 Sum squared resid 1.04E+12 Schwarz criterion 28.03147 Log likelihood -261.8823 F-statistic 7.645817 Durbin-Watson stat 2.002507 Prob(F-statistic) 0.004672

LAMPIRAN 4 Table 4.7 Unit Root Test dan Derajat Integrasi dengan ADF Test pada X2 t-statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -4.930755 0.0008 Test critical values: 1% level -3.788030 5% level -3.012363 10% level -2.646119 Variable Coefficnt Std. Error t-statistic Prob. D(X2(-1)) -1.434375 0.290904-4.930755 0.0001 D(X2(-1),2) 0.331420 0.191004 1.735147 0.0998 C -0.239051 0.796058-0.300294 0.7674 R-squared 0.648332 Mean dependent var 0.416667 Adjusted R-squared 0.609257 S.D. dependent var 5.763763 S.E. of regression 3.602895 Akaike info criterion 5.532916 Sum squared resid 233.6553 Schwarz criterion 5.682133 Log likelihood -55.09562 F-statistic 16.59229 Durbin-Watson stat 1.309007 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000082

LAMPIRAN 5 Table 4.8 Unit Root Test dan Derajat Integrasi dengan ADF Test pada X3 t-statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -4.954647 0.0007 Test critical values: 1% level -3.769597 5% level -3.004861 10% level -2.642242 Variable Coefficnt Std. Error t-statistic Prob. D(X3(-1)) -1.101967 0.222411-4.954647 0.0001 C -0.553301 1.408635-0.392792 0.6986 R-squared 0.551051 Mean dependent var 0.022727 Adjusted R-squared 0.528604 S.D. dependent var 9.590306 S.E. of regression 6.584540 Akaike info criterion 6.693834 Sum squared resid 867.1233 Schwarz criterion 6.793020 Log likelihood -71.63217 F-statistic 24.54853 Durbin-Watson stat 2.071238 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000076

LAMPIRAN 6 Tabel 4.9 Uji Kointegrasi Augmented Dickey-Fuller Variable Coefficnt Std. Error t-statistic Prob. C 8.458948 12.65374 0.668494 0.5119 X1 5.30E-05 2.23E-06 23.77497 0.0000 X2 0.855586 1.195286 0.715800 0.4828 X3 0.552747 0.749979 0.737017 0.4701 R-squared 0.982912 Mean dependent var 117.2596 Adjusted R-squared 0.980214 S.D. dependent var 119.7968 S.E. of regression 16.85111 Akaike info criterion 8.643481 Sum squared resid 5395.238 Schwarz criterion 8.840958 Log likelihood - 95.40003 F-statistic 364.2920 Durbin-Watson stat 1.848697 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

LAMPIRAN 7 Table 4.10 Unit Root Test dan Derajat Integrasi dengan ADF Test setelah uji kointegrasi t-statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -6.928478 0.0000 Test critical values: 1% level -3.831511 5% level -3.029970 10% level -2.655194 Variable Coefficnt Std. Error t-statistic Prob. D(RESID01(-1)) C - 1.404387 0.202698-6.928478 0.0000-0.602039 4.476444-0.134490 0.8946 R-squared 0.738477 Mean dependent var - 2.446852

Adjusted R-squared 0.723093 S.D. dependent var 37.01464 S.E. of regression 19.47782 Akaike info criterion 8.875730 Sum squared resid 6449.553 Schwarz criterion 8.975145 Log likelihood - 82.31944 F-statistic 48.00381 Durbin-Watson stat 1.118098 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000002 LAMPIRAN 8 Tabel 4.11 Hasil estimasi Vector Autoregression Cointegrating Eq: CointEq1 X1(-1) X2(-1) X3(-1) Y(-1) 1.000000-5.38E-05-4.079475 0.822571 (3.6E-06) (0.96127) (0.67202) [-15.1000] [-4.24386] [ 1.22402] C -2.477140 Error Correction: D(Y) D(X1) D(X2) D(X3) CointEq1-0.783914 420.8781 0.167342 0.072777 (0.28442) (3399.29) (0.06298) (0.10522) [-2.75619] [ 0.12381] [ 2.65696] [ 0.69169] D(Y(-1)) 0.501110 6600.035-0.077188 0.020467 (0.24336) (2908.62) (0.05389) (0.09003) [ 2.05909] [ 2.26913] [-1.43230] [ 0.22734] D(X1(-1)) 2.89E-05 0.673073 4.86E-07-5.24E-06 (1.3E-05) (0.15751) (2.9E-06) (4.9E-06) [ 2.19353] [ 4.27317] [ 0.16647] [-1.07460]

D(X2(-1)) -2.009141-9761.963 0.172169 0.680740 (1.09341) (13068.1) (0.24213) (0.40449) [-1.83750] [-0.74701] [ 0.71107] [ 1.68296] D(X3(-1)) 1.692336 29294.93-0.264995-0.404234 (0.71510) (8546.71) (0.15835) (0.26454) [ 2.36656] [ 3.42763] [-1.67344] [-1.52806] C 2.197170 49039.27 0.510219 0.718540 (5.19744) (62118.2) (1.15093) (1.92271) [ 0.42274] [ 0.78945] [ 0.44331] [ 0.37371] R-squared 0.601328 0.776195 0.343722 0.264902 Adj. R-squared 0.476743 0.706256 0.138635 0.035184 Sum sq. resids 4706.730 6.72E+11 230.8016 644.1196 S.E. equation 17.15140 204988.4 3.798039 6.344878 F-statistic 4.826648 11.09817 1.675980 1.153160 Log likelihood -90.23941-296.7892-57.07232-68.36191 Akaike AIC 8.749038 27.52629 5.733848 6.760174 Schwarz SC 9.046595 27.82385 6.031405 7.057731 Mean dependent 18.29832 337588.4-0.478636-0.500000 S.D. dependent 23.71058 378220.3 4.092283 6.459530 Determinant resid covariance (dof adj.) 3.74E+15 Determinant resid covariance 1.05E+15 Log likelihood -505.2850 Akaike information criterion 48.48046 Schwarz criterion 49.86906 LAMPIRAN 9 Tabel 4.12 Impulse Response Function Y Response of periode Y X1 X2 X3 1 17.15140 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 2 16.30414 12.23053 4.289410 5.887835 3 21.02779 19.97684 10.37603 9.566599 4 27.51858 23.87954 10.20515 13.89380 5 33.68891 27.88921 10.74013 18.89028 6 38.05935 32.90979 13.33083 22.52537 7 41.87226 37.32088 15.22903 25.61876

8 45.92196 40.80215 16.24172 28.80160 9 49.64461 44.06580 17.35627 31.75905 10 52.82236 47.24553 18.63266 34.32651 LAMPIRAN 10 Tabel 4.13 Impulse Response Function X1 Respon se of X1: Period Y X1 X2 X3

1-15500.49 204401.5 0.000000 0.000000 2 145412.1 303029.5-18611.31 166606.4 3 295236.1 414267.1 42736.19 269096.1 4 390575.7 536785.8 96176.25 349735.5 5 492139.0 634881.1 130083.6 432040.1 6 591652.1 720073.0 157849.7 509874.3 7 678136.4 802450.6 188839.8 579394.7 8 755033.7 878934.8 218672.6 641345.5 9 826530.0 947049.9 243522.8 698423.3 10 892538.3 1008708. 265684.8 751102.6 LAMPIRAN 11 Tabel 4.14 Impulse Response Function X2

Response of X2: Perio d Y X1 X2 X3 1 2.080969-0.684209 3.102664 0.000000 2 2.377086-1.895688 1.445711-0.715779 3 2.499888-2.375744 0.671271-0.219222 4 2.107807-2.147541 1.371606-0.502492 5 1.688640-2.157177 1.447907-0.841312 6 1.675338-2.477303 1.126374-0.881039 7 1.625052-2.657953 1.038959-0.929694 8 1.439750-2.708846 1.092279-1.060807 9 1.295575-2.802791 1.064731-1.174472 10 1.213475-2.929043 0.990881-1.246974 LAMPIRAN 12

Tabel 4.15 Impulse Response Function X3 ResponsX3: Period Y X1 X2 X3 1 2.512156-1.422755 0.573660 5.620785 2 4.187017-3.067062 1.567062 3.685155 3 3.013007-3.411311 0.272510 3.436913 4 2.694824-3.691130 0.476523 3.326487 5 2.198037-3.933077 0.574557 2.833737 6 1.861726-4.326203 0.296722 2.574983 7 1.622770-4.678143 0.132847 2.376734 8 1.315438-4.918646 0.084098 2.135772 9 1.028998-5.149584 0.010633 1.910874 10 0.800199-5.389566-0.092160 1.724186

LAMPIRAN 13 60 Response of Y to Cholesky One S.D. Innovations 1200000 Response of X1 to Cholesky One S.D. Innovations 50 1000000 40 800000 30 600000 400000 20 200000 10 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Y X1 X2 X3-200000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Y X1 X2 X3 4 Response of X2 to Cholesky One S.D. Innovations 6 Response of X3 to Cholesky One S.D. Innovations 3 4 2 2 1 0 0-1 -2-2 -4-3 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Y X1 X2 X3-6 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Y X1 X2 X3 Gambar 4.1 Impulse Response Function (IRF)

LAMPIRAN 14 Tabel 4.16 Variance Decomposition dari Y Variance Decomposition Y Period S.E. Y X1 X2 X3 1 17.15140 100.0000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 2 27.61607 73.42788 19.61403 2.412523 4.545563 3 42.46258 55.58093 30.42920 6.991459 6.998417 4 58.54706 51.32906 32.64210 6.715935 9.312910 5 76.24108 49.79402 32.63027 5.944851 11.63085 6 95.02302 48.09738 33.00068 5.795168 13.10677 7 114.2968 46.66484 33.47126 5.780810 14.08309 8 133.9056 45.75949 33.67081 5.682897 14.88681 9 153.7757 45.12032 33.74305 5.583057 15.55357 10 173.7665 44.57652 33.81824 5.522142 16.08309

LAMPIRAN 15 Tabel 4.17 Variance Decomposition dari X1 Variance Decomposition X1 Period S.E. Y X1 X2 X3 1 204988.4 0.571784 99.42822 0.000000 0.000000 2 427897.1 11.67964 72.97098 0.189180 15.16020 3 718412.5 21.03194 59.13859 0.420983 19.40849 4 1043250. 23.98989 54.51852 1.049518 20.44207 5 1391842. 25.98044 51.43632 1.463143 21.12011 6 1758030. 27.61057 49.01662 1.723279 21.64953 7 2136779. 28.76196 47.28322 1.947542 22.00728 8 2523404. 29.57638 46.03634 2.147430 22.23985 9 2914571. 30.21227 45.06679 2.307814 22.41313 10 3308109. 30.73101 44.27975 2.436412 22.55284

LAMPIRAN 16 Tabel 4.18 Variance Decomposition dari X2 Variabel decomposition of X2 Perio d S.E. Y X1 X2 X3 1 3.798039 30.02012 3.245328 66.73455 0.000000 2 5.125592 37.99135 15.46066 44.59784 1.950156 3 6.218035 41.97814 25.10332 31.46913 1.449405 4 7.060633 41.46882 28.72044 28.18014 1.630600 5 7.756397 39.10256 31.53383 26.83592 2.527689 6 8.435071 37.00824 35.28905 24.47443 3.228274 7 9.099434 34.99084 38.85645 22.33474 3.817962 8 9.722593 32.84205 41.79770 20.82558 4.534673 9 10.32357 30.70458 44.44388 19.53519 5.316353 10 10.91625 28.69664 46.94834 18.29542 6.059601

LAMPIRAN 17 Tabel 4.19 Variance Decomposition dari X3 Variance Decomposition of X3: Perio d S.E. Y X1 X2 X3 1 6.344878 15.67642 5.028217 0.817453 78.47791 2 9.123131 28.64545 13.73411 3.345810 54.27463 3 10.76259 28.42035 19.91494 2.468226 49.19649 4 12.16604 27.14793 24.79020 2.085029 45.97684 5 13.29185 25.47852 29.52440 1.933638 43.06344 6 14.33784 23.58264 34.47799 1.704626 40.23474 7 15.35444 21.68026 39.34648 1.493863 37.47940 8 16.31719 19.84726 43.92694 1.325437 34.90036 9 17.24759 18.11968 48.22991 1.186334 32.46407 10 18.16999 16.52064 52.25573 1.071515 30.15211

60 Response of Y to Cholesky One S.D. Innovations 1200000 Response of X1 to Cholesky One S.D. Innovations 50 1000000 40 800000 30 600000 400000 20 200000 10 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Y X1 X2 X3-200000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Y X1 X2 X3 4 Response of X2 to Cholesky One S.D. Innovations 6 Response of X3 to Cholesky One S.D. Innovations 3 4 2 2 1 0 0-1 -2-2 -4-3 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Y X1 X2 X3-6 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Y X1 X2 X3 Gambar 4.2 Variance Decomposition