A recap of last week s top economic news and what s to come Canadian retail sales disappoint Canadian retail sales disappointed in September. Retail sales rose 0.1% in September, after dropping 0.1% in August. Expectations were for a 1% gain during the month. Automobile and clothing sales fell, while higher gasoline station receipts were supported by rising gas prices. Receipts for retailers have been flat over the past four months, following one of the strongest years on record, suggesting that the strong economic impact from consumption during the first half of the year will cool during the second half. Economic activity is expected to slow to a 1.8% annualized growth rate during the third quarter, following 4.5% recorded during the second quarter. Cooling growth and the fact that the Bank of Canada has already raised rates twice this year should place the central bank on hold until the spring of 2018. Mixed U.S. economic data U.S. existing home sales rose more than expected in October as hurricane-related effects dissipated. The ongoing shortage of housing has pushed prices higher and beyond the reach of some first-time buyers, which remains an obstacle going forward. Existing home sales climbed 2.0% in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.48 million units. Durable goods orders were weak last month, following three strong months of gains. Overall orders for durable goods fell 1.2% in October due to a decline in demand for transportation equipment. New orders for U.S.-made capital goods for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, which is watched to gauge business spending, fell 0.5%. Still, core capital goods orders rose 4.4% over the year. Surveys of American companies showed that businesses grew at the slowest pace in four months in November. The IHS market manufacturing PMI declined to 53.8 in November, from 54.6 in October. The services PMI also fell, to 54.3 from 54.6 in October. Still, both indices are still in expansion territory and are broadly in-line with GDP growing at an annualized rate of just over 2%. Eurozone economy continues to shine The eurozone showed continued strength in October as both the services and manufacturing industries performed stronger than even the most optimistic expectations. Broad-based strength helped support factory activity, which had the second strongest month in the index s history. The IHS Markit composite flash PMI jumped to 57.5 in November, the highest since April 2011. As well, a business index rose to 56.9 from 56.6 during the prior month, close to a seven-year high.
Other economic news The U.S. Federal Open Market Committee minutes from its October 31 November 1 meeting indicated that Committee members maintained a positive view on growth, including a strong labour market, consumer spending and manufacturing. There was disagreement on the pace of inflation, though there was agreement that the pace of growth could improve if tax reform is passed. The Committee also stated concerns about financial market prices, which they felt were getting out of hand and potentially poses risks to the economy. Japan s manufacturing sector grew at its fastest pace in more than three years in November. The Nikkei- Markit Manufacturing PMI rose to 53.8 in November, from 52.8 in October, the fastest pace since March 2014. New orders increased strongly as businesses have benefited from the weaker yen. However, due to the weak yen and higher materials prices, cost pressures have increased as input price inflation increased to a 35- month high in November. What s to come In Canada, October s employment report will be released on Friday as well as GDP data for September and Q3. In the U.S., third quarter GDP will be released on Wednesday, while a second reading of November s manufacturing report will be released on Friday. In the eurozone, key data on inflation will be released on Thursday, as well as the employment report, while manufacturing data will be released on Friday. In China, manufacturing and services data will be released on Wednesday. Source: BMO Economics, TD Economics, Ned Davis Research, as of November 24, 2017 2
Return (%) Annualized Return (%) CANADIAN EQUITY INDEXES ($CDN) Close Week YTD 1 YR 3YR 5 YR 10 YR 52 wk high 52 wk low S&P/TSX Composite PR Index 16,108 0.7 5.4 6.9 2.4 5.7 1.8 16,106 14,482 S&P/TSX Composite TR Index 53,450 0.7 8.0 9.9 5.5 8.9 4.9 48,697 47,500 Energy TR 3,602 1.0-8.3-6.4-4.3 1.0 0.0 3,875 3,685 Materials TR 2,742 0.8 5.1 5.4 4.4-4.4-1.5 2,664 2,587 Industrials TR 3,910 0.5 16.7 16.4 7.7 17.7 11.6 3,375 3,239 Consumer Disc. TR 3,434 1.8 22.6 24.2 11.8 20.9 9.2 2,789 2,687 Consumer Staples TR 6,001 0.3 6.9 5.9 12.8 20.5 13.6 5,727 5,524 Health Care TR 497 5.6 7.5-3.5-41.2-14.8 2.1 537 469 Financials TR 5,093 0.2 12.7 16.1 10.5 15.0 8.7 4,397 4,254 Information Technology T 286 3.0 18.6 17.9 15.6 21.9-3.2 245 237 Telecom Serv ices TR 3,140 0.2 17.4 19.0 12.0 13.3 9.8 2,659 2,591 Utilities TR 4,675 0.8 11.8 16.0 8.0 8.0 6.0 4,096 3,958 S&P/TSX 60 TR Index 2,561 0.7 8.7 10.4 6.1 9.7 5.0 2,324 2,266 MSCI Canadian Small Cap PR Index 357 0.9 2.1 4.7 0.2 2.1 1.0 372 327 Return (CAD, %) Annualized Return (CAD, %) WORLD EQUITY INDEXES (local) Close Week YTD 1 YR 3YR 5 YR 10 YR 52 wk high 52 wk low CAC 40 PR Index 5,390 1.9 18.5 26.3 10.1 12.5 0.1 5,536 4,345 DAX 30 PR Index 13,060 1.1 21.6 30.1 13.0 16.0 5.9 13,505 10,175 DJIA PR Index 23,558 0.4 12.7 16.4 14.2 18.3 8.9 23,557 17,884 DJIA TR Index 50,705 0.4 15.2 19.2 17.1 21.3 11.8 50,571 37,469 FTSE 100 PR Index 7,410 0.9 5.9 9.3 1.7 6.3-0.1 7,599 6,677 FTSE 100 TR Index 6,277 1.0 10.0 13.7 5.8 10.3 3.7 6,396 5,418 FTSE/Xinhua A200 10,736-0.2 27.4 21.2 17.8 16.6 1.1 10,467 8,275 Hang Seng PR Index 29,866 1.8 27.4 23.6 11.8 11.6 3.7 28,799 21,489 Hang Seng TR Index 80,591 1.9 32.4 28.4 16.0 15.9 7.5 77,390 56,043 MSCI EAFE TR Index 8,015 1.4 17.0 20.9 11.0 14.6 5.0 7,966 6,199 MSCI Emerging Markets TR 2,505 1.1 29.4 30.9 11.7 11.2 5.1 2,455 1,774 MSCI Europe TR Index 9,927 1.6 17.6 24.0 9.7 14.1 4.5 9,946 7,486 MSCI Far East Free (ex-japan) TR 1,489 1.3 35.9 34.0 15.7 15.0 7.9 1,444 1,016 MSCI World TR Index 8,276 0.9 13.7 16.0 12.9 18.1 8.3 8,206 6,599 MSCI World AC TR Index 998 0.9 15.4 17.6 12.8 17.3 7.9 987 788 NASDAQ Composite PR 6,889 1.1 21.0 20.7 17.7 24.4 13.1 6,765 5,034 Nikkei 225 PR 22,551 0.6 16.6 17.7 15.8 17.8 6.6 22,645 16,112 Russell 2000 TR 7,459 1.3 7.0 8.2 14.6 20.9 11.5 6,739 5,632 Russell 2000 Growth TR 6,564 1.7 14.1 12.9 15.0 21.9 12.2 5,620 4,801 Russell 2000 Value TR 11,436 0.9 0.6 3.7 14.0 19.9 10.8 11,505 9,136 S&P 500 PR Index 2,602 0.4 9.9 11.3 12.3 18.8 8.8 2,588 2,084 S&P 500 TR Index 4,976 0.0 12.1 13.3 14.7 21.3 11.2 4,414 4,305 Shanghai Comp PR 3,354-0.9 7.6 2.4 11.6 14.9-0.3 3,421 3,017 ECO_RELEASE_DT Interest Rates Bank of Canada Ov ernight Lending Rate Bank of England Repo Rate European Central Bank Min bid rate at refi tende Federal Funds Target Rate Current 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% 1.25% Next Meeting 12/6/2017 12/14/2017 12/14/2017 12/13/2017 3
Total Ret (%) Historical Prices 52 wk 52 wk Commodities ($US) Close Week YTD 1 YR 3YR 5 YR 10 YR high low Copper 317 3.3 26.5 261 300 353 299 326 226 Corn 342-0.2-2.8 351 368 746 389 395 329 Crude Oil 58.95 4.2 9.7 47.96 75.78 88.28 98.18 56.28 42.05 Gold 1,289-0.4 11.8 1,184 1,197 1,753 824 1,358 1,121 Natural Gas 2.81-9.2-24.5 3.03 4.15 3.90 7.70 3.99 2.52 Nickel 11,988 4.0 20.2 11,545 16,609 16,583 28,926 12,730 8,700 Platinum 943-1.1 4.3 916 1,204 1,620 1,481 1,045 889 Soybeans 993 0.3-0.3 1,034 1,034 1,419 1,100 1,080 900 Silv er 17.08-1.3 7.3 16.31 16.48 34.09 14.78 19.02 15.19 Wheat 416-2.7 1.9 402 542 848 827 554 370 Zinc 3,254 1.7 26.9 2,715 2,288 1,952 2,282 3,342 2,419 CPN MATURITY Bond Yields Coupon Maturity Date Canada 2 Year Treasuries 1.250 11/1/2019 10 Year Treasuries 1.000 6/1/2027 30 Year Treasuries 2.750 12/1/2048 ECB 2 Year Treasuries 0.000 9/13/2019 10 Year Treasuries 0.500 8/15/2027 30 Year Treasuries 1.250 8/15/2048 Japan 2 Year Treasuries 0.100 11/15/2019 10 Year Treasuries 0.100 9/20/2027 30 Year Treasuries 0.800 9/20/2047 US 2 Year Treasuries 1.500 10/31/2019 10 Year Treasuries 2.250 8/15/2027 30 Year Treasuries 2.750 8/15/2047 Current Price 99.65 92.32 111.56 101.45 101.35 101.47 0.00 0.02 0.83 99.53 99.18 99.70 Yield to Maturity 1.44 1.89 2.23-0.70 0.36 1.19 0.00 0.02 0.83 1.75 2.34 2.77 Total Ret (%) Historical Prices Currencies Close Week YTD 1 YR 3YR 5 YR 10 YR high low CAD / EURO 0.66-0.77-6.77 0.70 0.71 0.78 0.68 0.73 0.65 CAD / USD 0.79 0.42 5.71 0.74 0.89 1.01 1.01 0.83 0.73 CAD / UK POUND 0.59-0.49-2.16 0.60 0.56 0.63 0.49 0.64 0.56 USD / AUSTRALIAN $ 1.31-0.68-5.46 1.35 1.16 0.96 1.14 1.40 1.23 USD / BRAZIL REAL 3.23-0.83-0.71 3.40 2.55 2.08 1.80 3.51 3.04 USD / EURO 0.84-1.19-11.85 0.95 0.80 0.77 0.67 0.97 0.83 USD / MEXICAN PESO 18.56-1.90-10.47 20.74 13.66 12.96 10.97 22.04 17.45 USD / UK POUND 0.75-0.91-7.46 0.80 0.64 0.62 0.48 0.83 0.73 USD / YEN 111.53-0.51-4.64 113.33 118.27 82.40 108.29 118.66 101.20 Source: Bloomberg, as of 4
Commentaries contained herein are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of November 24, 2017 and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and the manager accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Published Date: 5