Weekly Market Reflection Gold Prices at 3-1/2 Week Highs as U.S. Dollar Tumbles COMDEX 19 th Feb to 23 rd Feb 2018 Gold prices were hovering at three-and-a-half week highs on Friday, as concerns over the U.S. deficit took over market sentiment and sent the greenback broadly lower. The greenback turned broadly lower due to fresh concerns over the deficit in the U.S., which is projected to climb near $1 trillion in 2019 following the recent announcement of infrastructure spending and large corporate tax cuts. The dollar had initially strengthened after the U.S. Commerce Department reported on Wednesday that consumer prices raised more than expected in January by 0.5%, sending U.S. bond yield higher. Crude Oil Prices Rise on Renewed Optimism Crude oil prices rose on Friday, helped by a weak U.S. dollar and by hopes for further efforts to limit global oil output. The greenback turned broadly lower amid sustained concerns over the deficit in the U.S., which is projected to climb near $1 trillion in 2019 following the announcement of infrastructure spending and large corporate tax cuts. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), along with some non-opec members led by Russia, agreed in December to extend oil output cuts until the end of 2018. Base metals prices stick at high levels Base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange were mostly higher at the close on Friday February 15, with only aluminium prices falling. Copper price slow move recently, its consolidation within the bullish channel reinforces the continuation of the positivity for the upcoming trading, the price to gain new positive momentum followed by starting to achieve the main targets at 3.3300 followed by 3.5000. Nickel prices are the most energetic with a 0.7% gain, trading range of Nickel is 833 Support and 920 Resistance. Market Updates MCX Date Date % Chg 9-02-18 16-02-18 GOLD 30009 30816 +2.69% SILVER 37578 38665 +2.89% COPPER 432.90 461.50 +6.61% CRUDE 3807 3972 +4.33% ALUMINIUM 137.10 141.60 +3.28% LEAD 163.60 168 +2.69% NICKEL 834 887 +6.35% ZINC 218.15 230.75 +5.78% NATURALGAS 167.20 165.50-1.02% COMEX Date Date % Chg 9-02-18 16-02-18 GOLD 1314.59 1348.40 +2.57% SILVER 16.29 16.67 +2.33% CRUDE 59.15 61.51 +3.99% COPPER 3.03335 3.2285 +6.43% $ INDEX 90.22 89.03-1.32% USDINR 65.52 64.29-0.36% OUR PREVIOUS CALLS UPDATE Calls of the week Date Commodity Entry Exit P/L 12/02 MENTHAOI (L) 1450 1420-10800 12/02 CRUDE(S) 3790 3860-7000 Weekly pick Date Commodity Entry Exit P/L 12/02 SILVER (S) - - UNEXE
Economic Calendar Time Currency Event Forecast Previous Feb 19-All Day USD Bank Holiday - - Feb 20-12:15am GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks - - 12:30pm EUR German PPI m/m 0.5% 0.2% 3:30pm EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment 16.5 20.4 3:30pm EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment 28.4 31.8 Feb 21-1:30pm EUR French Flash Manufacturing PMI 58.2 58.4 1:30pm EUR French Flash Services PMI 59.1 59.2 8:15pm USD Flash Manufacturing PMI 55.5 55.5 8:15pm USD Flash Services PMI 54.2 53.3 8:30pm USD Existing Home Sales 5.63M 5.57M Feb 22-12:30am USD FOMC Meeting Minutes - - 10:45am USD FOMC Member Quarles Speaks - - 1:15pm EUR French Final CPI m/m -0.1% -0.1% 2:30pm EUR German Ifo Business Climate 117.2 117.6 3:00pm GBP Second Estimate GDP q/q 0.5% 0.5% 3:00pm GBP Prelim Business Investment q/q 0.4% 0.5% 7:00pm USD Unemployment Claims 231K 230K 8:30pm USD CB Leading Index m/m 0.7% 0.6% 8:30pm USD FOMC Member Dudley Speaks - - 9:00pm USD Natural Gas Storage - -194B 9:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories - 1.8M 10:40pm USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks - - Feb 23-Tentative USD Fed Monetary Policy Report - - 3:30pm EUR Final CPI y/y 1.3% 1.3% 3:30pm EUR Final Core CPI y/y 1.0% 1.0% 5:30pm GBP MPC Member Ramsden Speaks - - 7:30pm CNY CB Leading Index m/m - 1.7% 8:45pm USD FOMC Member Dudley Speaks - - PIVOT COMMODITIES S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 TREND ALUMINIUM 136.65 135.50 133.90 143.15 144.15 144.90 Bullish LEAD 164.60 163.15 161.80 171.85 172.50 175.70 Bullish NICKEL 861 847 822 917.80 929 953 Bullish ZINC 226.80 222.50 220.15 232 233.90 235.20 Bullish NATURAL GAS 160.20 156 147.30 171 185.70 191 Bearish
Gold and Silver GOLD TECHNICAL VIEW MCX Gold last week showed sideways to bullish movement and able to close above its major resistance level i.e. 30800 levels. For upcoming session it may give more upside movement towards next resistance level of 31200 and after that 31600 will next as a next major resistance level. On lower side it has major support of 30500 and if price sustains below this level then it can slides towards next important support level of 30000 and continue with bearish trend. PIVOTS S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 MCX 30500 30250 29800 30850 31165 31410 SILVER PIVOTS S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 STRATEGY Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to buy above 30900 for the target of 31400 with stop loss of 30300. TECHNICAL VIEW MCX Silver last week took reverse movement from lower level and showed slight bullish movement. For upcoming week it can give more upward movement and test resistance level of 39000 and if price maintains above this level then it will goes upside up to next major resistance level of 39600. On lower side it has crucial support of 38000 and if it sustains below this level then it will test its next important support of its lower trend line i.e. 37500 levels. STRATEGY MCX 38180 37500 36700 39100 39700 40200 Better strategy in MCX SILVER is to sell below 38300 for the target of 37500, with stop loss of 39300.
Crude and Copper. CRUDE TECHNICAL VIEW MCX Crude oil last week showed sideways to bearish movement and broke its major support level of 3800 but not able to close below this level and took reverse movement. For upcoming session it can give bullish movement if it breaks it channel line i.e. 4000 level and if it maintains above this level then it may test next resistance level of 4100. On lower side it has major support of 3850 and if price sustains below this level then price slides towards 3750 levels. PIVOTS S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 MCX 3900 3800 3690 4020 4150 4270 COPPER PIVOTS S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 MCX 457.50 451.20 445.30 465.15 471.60 480 STRATEGY Better strategy in MCX CRUDE is to buy above 4050 for the target of 4250, with stop loss of 3800. TECHNICAL VIEW MCX Copper last week showed sideways to bullish movement and able to close around its major resistance level of 465.For upcoming week if it breaks 465 levels then it may give more bullish movement and test next important resistance level of 472 and after that 480 will act as a next major resistance level. On lower side it has support level of 450 and if price sustains below this level then it can take some correction from higher to lower up next support level i.e. 440 levels and it will continue with down trend. STRATEGY Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to sell below 455 for the target of 445, with stop loss of 470.
Agri Commodity Updates GUARGUM Guargum showed bearish movement last week, and able to close below its important support level of 10000. If the prices maintain above its resistance level of 9900 then the bullish momentum will take prices up to 10200 level. On other hand if the prices sustain below 9350 then prices may find the next support level of 9000. PIVOTS S1 S2 R1 R2 9390 8970 9860 10200 SOYAREF Soyaref showed sideways movement last week and found the support level of 711. If the prices maintain above its resistance level of 730 then the bullish momentum will take prices up to 750 levels. On other hand if the prices sustain below 710 then prices may find the next support level of 700. PIVOTS S1 S2 R1 R2 740 730 755 765 TURMERIC Turmeric showed sideways movement last week, and able to close around its important support level of 7200. If the prices maintain above its resistance level of 7400 then the bullish momentum will take prices 7525 level. On other hand if the prices sustain below the support level of 7130 then prices find the next support level of 7000. PIVOTS S1 S2 R1 R2 7130 7000 7400 7525
Calls of the week (Premium Section) CALL: SELL DHANIYA APRIL BELOW 5470 TARGET 5400 SL 5570. CALL: BUY NATURAL GAS ABOVE 171 TARGET 178 SL 161.
Weekly Pick (Premium Section) CALL: BUY GOLD ABOVE 30850 TARGET 30950 SL 30700.
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