Is social protection effective in tackling inequality in developing countries? Miguel Niño-Zarazúa UNU-WIDER

Is social protection effective in tackling inequality in developing countries? Miguel Niño-Zarazúa UNU-WIDER

The concern of inequality The concern of inequality is a critical factor in the success of development strategies in developing countries inequality reduce the efficacy of economic growth to poverty reduction Inequality also affect a country s potential of economic growth, by impacting negatively on consumer demand, national savings and human capital formation Negative implications of high levels of inequality, in terms of social cohesion, crime, conflict and political instability, governance, and social exclusion, are widely acknowledged

The concern of inequality The report of the UN System Task Team (2012) to support the preparation of the Post 2015 UN Development Agenda points out that the inequality is a key concern, not just from the perspective of a future in which a decent and secure wellbeing is a prerogative of all citizens, but sustained development itself is impeded by high inequalities. Hence, redressing these trends will be a major challenge in the decades ahead

What are the recent trends in global interpersonal inequality? Global Interpersonal Inequality has fallen steadily between 1975 and 2008 Ginis fell from 0.727 to 0.681 Theil L idex (or MLD) fell from 1.314 to 0.981 1,400 1,200 1,000 0,800 0,600 0,400 0,200 Gini Theil L (MLD) Theil L within-country component Theil L between-country component 1976 1985 1995 2008 0,000 Source: Niño-Zarazúa, Roope and Tarp (2013)

2000 10 2000 10 40 35 30 25 Within-country inequality remains a major challenge LUX FIN BEL DNK SWE Advanced economies NOR FRA CAN DEU JPN NLD AUS NZL AUT ISR PRT ESP USA GBR ITA GRC IRL 65 55 45 35 25 Middle and Low Income Countries BOL THA PER ZAM MDG COL CIV BRA CHL MEX JOR KEN CHN NIG GHA ARG PHL MOR SEN UKR POL IND MAL TZA UGA BGR EGY PAK IDN ROU HUN ZA 20 20 25 30 35 40 15 15 25 35 45 55 65 1985 95 1985 95 Source: UNU-WIDER s World Income Inequality Database

Heterogeneous trends in inequality 35,0 30,0 25,0 20,0 15,0 10,0 5,0 0,0 Income gap between country groupings Constant 000 US$ (2005 PPP) Gap between highand low- countries 1980 2010 Gap between highand upper-middle countries 1 0,9 0,8 0,7 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0 Inequality measured by mean-log deviations of Latin America sub-saharan Africa East Asia South Asia 1981 1990 1999 2008 Source: UNU-WIDER s World Income Inequality Database

The emergence of Social Protection A new paradigm in the fight against poverty and vulnerability Tax-financed (and/or aid-supported) policies that moved antipoverty approaches: From food-aid and subsidies to regular, reliable and predictable transfers Emerging consensus that eradicating poverty requires economic growth, basic service provision and social protection A shift from poverty as a lack of to poverty as a multidimensional phenomenon Over 30 developing countries have large scale social transfer programmes Pilot schemes being introduced in Kenya, Malawi, Ghana and Zambia; and at implementation in Nigeria, Liberia, Uganda, and Tanzania More than 860 million people currently benefit from social protection, making it the most important policy instrument against poverty at the present time

Number of Social Protection: policy approaches against poverty Programme title Country Type National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme Urban DiBao Program Bantuan Tunai, Bantuan Tunai Langsung Bolsa Familia India China Income transfer plus Integrated antipoverty households (in millions) UNU-WIDER, Katajanokanlaituri 6 B FI-00160 Helsinki, Finland Tel +358-(0)9-6159911 Fax +358-(0)9-61599333 Number of beneficiaries (in millions) 48.0 240.0 22.0 110.0 Indonesia Pure 19.1 95.5 Brazil Income transfer plus 12.5 52.3 Rural Dibao China Pure 10.5 42.0 Prêvidencia Social Rural Brazil Pure 7.5 37.5 Indira Gandhi National Old Age Pension Scheme Progresa-Oportunidades 100 Days Employment Generation Scheme (EGP) Tekun (transfer in less developed regions for destitute households) India Pure 15.7 31.4 Mexico Bangladesh Income transfer plus Income transfer plus 5.5 27.5 China Pure 6.6 10.7 Beneficio de Prestaçao Continuada Brazil Pure 2.4 10.0 Expanded Senior Citizens Act of 2010 Philippines Pure Income 2.0 10.0 National Family Benefit Scheme India Pure 2.0 10.0 Old Age Pension South Africa Pure 2.4 10.0 Child Support Grant South Africa Pure 1.9 9.5 Subtotal for 15 largest programmes 161.0 711.4 Other 79 programmes 30.4 8 151.9 TOTAL Developing world 3/ 191.4 863.3 Country classification 1/ Lower middle Lower middle Lower middle Upper middle Lower middle Upper middle Lower middle Upper middle Poverty focus 2/ Categorical 3.0 15.0 Low Lower middle Upper middle Lower middle Lower middle Upper middle Upper middle Categorical

What is the impact of transfers programmes on inequality? Brazil Chile Mexico 1995 2004 Δ value (%) 1996 2003 Δ value (%) 1996 2004 Δ value (%) Gini 0.598 0.571-0.027 100 0.563 0.562-0.001 100 0.537 0.510-0.027 100 Labour -0.023 85.2 0.009-922.7-0.029 109.6 Contribution to inequality reduction Social Security 0.006-21.8-0.005 499.8 0.004-15.5 Other -0.004 15.8-0.005 508.2 0.004-14.7 CCT -0.0057 20.8-0.0002 14.7-0.0056 20.5 Labour 0.820 0.726 0.8319 0.816 0.890 0.86 Weight in total Social Security 0.142 0.227 0.0701 0.079 0.029 0.050 Other 0.037 0.042 0.098 0.104 0.079 0.084 CCT 0.0051 0.0001 0.0055 Source: Soares et al (2009)

Wider functionings of Social Protection: automatic stabilizers In Indonesia, the Jaring Pengaman Sosial was launched in 1998 to help poor households to mitigate the impact of the 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis In Argentina, Plan Jefes y Jefas de Hogar Desocupados was introduced in the aftermath of the 2001-2002 Argentinean peso crisis to support unemployed parents with children In the Aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis South Africa extended the Child Support Grant to cover children up to age 17, from the previous age limit of 15 In Brazil, the scope of Bolsa Familia was expanded to include an additional 1.3 million households In Mexico, Oportunidades was expanded in 2010 to cover an additional 600,000 households mostly in urban areas

What are the costs and sources to finance Social Protection in Developing Countries?

The Cost of Social Protection MICs spend less than 1% of GDP on Social Transfers LICs African countries: 3-5% GDP Old age pension as % GDP Child benefit as % GDP Unemploy ment scheme as % GDP Transfer package as % GDP Revenue grants as % GDP Transfer package as % Revenue - grants Net ODA/ as % GDP Transfer package as % net ODA Guinea 0,6 1,5 0,3 2,8 15,6 17,7 7,5 36,9 Burkina Faso 1,1 2,8 0,6 5,2 13,1 39,5 12,5 41,3 Ethiopia 1,0 2,8 0,6 5,1 12,0 42,2 12,6 40,3 Tanzania 1,1 3,1 0,6 5,5 17,3 31,9 11,4 48,5 Senegal 1,1 2,0 0,5 4,1 19,6 21,1 8,0 51,7 Kenya 0,9 3,0 0,6 5,2 20,8 24,9 3,9 131,3 Cameroon 0,8 1,8 0,4 3,5 20,0 17,3 2,2 154,0 ILO (2008)

Sources to Finance Social Protection Tax revenues as a share of GDP have grown modestly in the sub-saharan region; from 13.5% in the 1980s to 18% in the 2000s Constraints associated with: o The structure of the economy the rural subsistence economy and the informal sector are difficult to tax o Administrative capacity of revenue authorities o Political economy factors What are the options for financing social protection in developing countries?

What about redistribution? Zambia Uganda Swaziland Sierra Leone Senegal Rwanda Nigeria Niger Mali Malawi Lesotho Guinea-Bissau Guinea Ghana Gambia Ethiopia Central African Republic Burkina Faso Cameroon Tanzania Burundi Mozambique Madagascar Cote d'ivoire Botswana South Africa Marginal Tax Rate on the rich needed to eliminate the normalised poverty gap 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Source: Niño-Zarazúa et al (2012)

What about resource mobilisation? Revenues from Natural resources. Potential for Angola, Botswana, Cameroon, Chad, Côte d'ivoire, Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, Ghana Namibia, Nigeria, Republic of Congo, Sierra Leone, Togo, Uganda and Zambia Immediate challenges in terms of efficiency and equity Renegotiation of contracts with companies involved in the exploitation of natural resources: Bolivia s Bono Juancito Pinto and Programa (PAN) Subsidies in developing countries are very regressive -amounted around $54 billion in 2010, roughly, 1/3 of ODA (170.6 billion USD) Rises in VAT earmarked for expenditures on Social Protection. VAT on cigarettes/alcohol could rise revenues in India and Vietnam equivalent to 0.3 and 0.4 % of GDP, respectively. Anti tax-evasion policies Chile was able to reduce VAT evasion from 20% in the 1990s to less than 10% in 2009

Concluding Remarks

Inequality remains a major challenge when analysing trends in withincountry inequalities Concerns about the negative implications of inequality, in terms of social cohesion, crime, conflict and political instability Recent encouraging trends in Latin America, where inequality has been falling due to: First: a decline in the premium to skills after an educational upgrading Second, the introduction of progressive social policies, notably social protection Recent although scant evidence from LA suggests that social transfers have contributed to the reduction in inequality in the order of 15% to 20% Potential sources to finance social protection vary from country to country. However, the expansion of social protection in developing countries seem to be equally, if not more, constrained by political economy factors, than financial resources