The Changing Wealth of Nations 2018

Transcription

1 The Changing Wealth of Nations 2018 Building a Sustainable Future Editors: Glenn-Marie Lange Quentin Wodon Kevin Carey

2 Wealth accounts available for 141 countries, 1995 to 2014 Market exchange rates Human capital explicit estimates possible now Still missing: Fisheries Water Agr land degradation (unsustainable farming practices) Natural hazard protection, esp. flooding Long Term Prosperity and Well-Being Produced Capital Machinery Equipment Structure Urban Land National Income / GDP Total Wealth Natural Capital Energy/Minerals Agricultural Land Forests Protected Areas Human Capital Male/Female and Employed/Self-employed Net Foreign Assets Total Assets- Total Liabilities

3 Global Wealth Grew 66% from 1995 to 2014 Changing shares: East Asia s share grew from 20% to 26% [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] Sub-Saharan Africa s share did not change [CELLRANGE] 1995 ($690 trillion) 2014 ($1,143 trillion) Europe & Central Asia and N. America declined from 75% to 65% [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE]

4 Wealth in Low- and Middle-income Countries Shares of Global Wealth, 1995 and % 12% 10% 8% 6% Distribution of wealth among low- and Middleincome countries, 2014 India 7% Mexico 4% Indonesia 4% Low income 2% Other Lower middle income 11% 4% 2% 0% Low income Lower middle income Upper middle income excl China China Brazil 12% China 45% Other Upper middle income 15%

5 Percent Change in Wealth Per Capita Asia leads Africa: mixed performance At risk: Fragileconflict states Resource rich states -5% 5% 50% 100%

6 Growth in Total Wealth and Per Capita Wealth, 1995 to 2014 Population growth impacts per capita wealth, especially in low- and middleincome countries

7 A closer look at growth in Sub-Saharan Africa 400% 350% 300% Growth in total wealth Growth in per capita wealth 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% -50% Rwanda Sierra Leone Ethiopia Malawi Guinea Mozambique Uganda Chad Mali Liberia Burkina Faso Togo Niger Gambia, The Central African Republic Tanzania Madagascar Comoros Congo, Dem. Rep. Burundi Zimbabwe Mauritania Congo, Rep. Ghana Cameroon Zambia Senegal Swaziland Kenya Cote d'ivoire Nigeria Namibia Botswana Mauritius South Africa Gabon Low income Lower middle income Upper middle income

8 Growth of wealth in EAP (low and middle income countries) Country average (excluding China): 68% per capita 300% 250% 200% Growth in total wealth Growth in total wealth per capita 150% 100% 50% 0% Cambodia Lao PDR Vietnam Indonesia Philippines Papua New Guinea Solomon Islands China Malaysia Thailand Mongolia Low income Lower middle income Upper middle income

9 Wealth Accounting: Development as portfolio management Is current GDP sustainable, or are we liquidating capital? Percent Shares of Wealth by Asset Type How much to save vs. consume? What assets to invest in? Low- and middle-income countries: leverage natural capital to build infrastructure, human capital, etc. Note: Net foreign assets are small and negative, except for High-income non-oecd countrie

10 Human Capital as a driver of development Human Capital: Share of Wealth vs Per Capita Value in % 60% 50% 40% 30% 500, , , , , , ,000 largest component of global wealth, 64% increases rapidly as economies grow 20% 150,000 10% 100,000 50,000 0% Low income Lower middle income Upper middle income High income: OECD Human capital, US$ per capita Human capital, share of total wealth 0

11 Natural capital remains important as its share of wealth declines Natural Capital: Share vs Per Capita Value (US$) in % 45% 40% 35% 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 Natural capital remains important even as countries grow and develop 30% 25% 20% 12,000 10,000 8,000 Growing an economy is not about liquidating natural capital to build other assets 15% 6,000 10% 5% 0% Low income Lower middle income Upper middle income High income: OECD 4,000 2,000 0 Natural capital per capita is highest in upper middle and high income OECD countries Natural capital, US$ per capita Natural capital, share of total wealth

12 Growth achieved by investing in renewable Natural Capital for resilient growth, not by depleting it Growth of Renewable assets and Total wealth, per capita, all countries

13 How per capita wealth changed, selected African countries 1995 to 2014 (2014 US$) 11,000 9,000 7,000 5,000 3,000 1,000-1,000 Total Wealth Produced Capital Natural Capital: Renewable Natural Capital: Nonrenewable Human Capital Net Foreign Assets -3,000-5,000 Malawi Tanzania Burundi Ethiopia Rwanda Sub-Saharan Africa

14 Where is CWON used in the World Bank? More than half of Systematic Country Diagnostics use wealth accounts provides the macroeconomic perspective on Nat Cap and the economy: 1. Measuring macro-economic performance: Not only, Is GDP growing?, but, Is GDP growth sustainable? 2. Sectoral applications and fiscal policy implications: How will economy benefit from better mgmt. of Nat Cap (forest, water, fisheries, land, minerals & energy)? Resource rents finance development, poverty reduction Fiscal benefits from less damaging natural hazards utilizing nature-based infrastructure From current market value to potential economic value the benefits of optimizing natural cpaital 3. Work on human capital supporting gender analysis and the Human Capital Project

15 Macroeconomic indicators using wealth, especially natural capital accounts 1. Change in wealth per capita at national level 2. Adjusted net national income (ANNI) and Adjusted net savings (ANS) (published in World Development Indicators annually) 3. Fiscal balance/gross operating balance, adjusted for natural resource depletion 4. Public sector balance sheet including natural resources (IMF s Fiscal Monitor, Managing Public Wealth) 5. Total Factor Productivity including natural resources

16 What we ve learned for CWON 2020 Extensive engagement with country teams and regional teams within the World Bank, country clients and external partners 1. Expand CWON 2020for missing natural capital: water & fisheries ecosystem services: wetlands, mangroves, coral reefs degradation: air pollution, agriculture & forest degradation --link degradation to human capital 2. Policy focus Benefits from natural resource policy reform Macro/fiscal policy and indicators using wealth accounts Climate change: impact on assets + stranded assets 3. Link to other factors for assessing sustainability risk Institutions, governance, policies Critical natural capital, monitored in biophysical terms 4. Dissemination and user-friendly tools

17 Thank you! Thank you!

18 A closer look at growth in South Asia 350% 300% 250% 200% Growth in total and per capita wealth, 1995 to 2014 Growth in total wealth Growth in total wealth per capita 150% 100% 50% 0% -50% Nepal Bangladesh India Sri Lanka Pakistan Maldives Low income Lower middle income Upper middle income

19 A closer look at growth in Latin America 180% Growth in total and per capital wealth, 1995 to 2014 Growth in total wealth 160% 140% Growth in total wealth per capita 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% Haiti Nicaragua Guatemala Honduras Bolivia El Salvador Guyana Peru Ecuador Panama Dominican Republic Costa Rica Paraguay Colombia Belize Brazil Mexico Suriname Jamaica Uruguay Venezuela, RB Argentina Chile Low income Lower middle income Upper middle income High income: non-oecd High income: O

20 A closer look at growth in Middle-east and North Africa (excluding high-income countries) 200% 150% Growth in total wealth Growth in per capita wealth 100% 50% 0% West Bank and Gaza Morocco Yemen, Rep. Djibouti Egypt, Arab Rep. Tunisia Jordan Lebanon -50% Lower middle income

21 A closer look at growth in new EU-member states 140% 120% 100% Growth in total wealth Growth in total wealth per capita 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Bulgaria Romania Latvia Lithuania Croatia Slovak Republic High income: non-oecd Poland Estonia Hungary Slovenia High income: OECD

22 Ageing of population, slow wage growth, & other factors affect human capital in some countries 80% Human Capital Share of Total Wealth in 1995 and % 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Low income Lower middle income High income: non- OECD Upper middle income China High income: OECD