Central Bank of Egypt External Position of the Egyptian Economy During July / March 2004/05 Quarterly Report Volume No. (9) July 2005
Foreword The External Position of the Egyptian Economy Report is one of a series released by the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) on a quarterly basis to shed light on the performance of Egypt's external sector during the reporting period. The report at hand, the ninth in this series, covers the period July/March of FY 2004/05. It reviews the BOP performance, external debt, external liquidity and exchange rate developments during the said period. The Central Bank of Egypt hopes that this report will be of value and of interest to both specialized and non-specialized readers. Governor Central Bank of Egypt
Table of Contents Page Overview Section I: Balance of Payments 1 Section II: External Liquidity 9 Net International Reserves 9 Net Foreign Assets of Banks 10 Section III : External Debt 11 Section IV : Exchange Rate Developments 15 Appendices : A - Main Statistics 17 B - Detailed Tables & Charts of the External Debt 25
Overview The main developments in the external position of the Egyptian economy during the period July/March of FY 2004/05, compared with that of 2003/04 are summarized hereunder. Egypt's balance of payments achieved a significant current account surplus, totaling US$ 3512.6 million, compared with US$ 2567.8 million in July/March of the FY 2003/04. This is mainly attributed to a higher surplus in the balance of services by 25.4%, as travel revenues* and Suez Canal dues, the main revenue generators, surged by 19.4% and 15.4% respectively. Another contributing factor was the rise in unrequited transfers by 47.6%. Meanwhile, the trade deficit increased by 31.0%. The capital and financial account resulted in a net inflow of US$ 519.1 million against a net outflow of US$ 4098.4 million. Foreign investment in Egypt (direct and portfolio) realized net inflows of US$ 2537.3 million during July/March, 2004/05 (including FDI in petroleum sector) against US$ 183.9 million in the same period of FY 2003/04. The overall balance switched to a surplus of US$ 3319.4 million during July/March 2004/05 from a deficit of US$ 534.9 million in July/March 2003/04. Net international reserves reached US$ 18.0 billion, with an increase of US$ 3.3 billion during the period, covering 9.6 months of commodity imports. During the printing process of this report, Net International Reserves (NIR) reached US$ 19.2 billion at end of June 2005. Banks' net foreign assets reached US$ 8.0 billion at end of March 2005, increasing by US$ 2.3 billion. Foreign currency deposits with banks increased by 7.0%, to reach US$ 21.3 billion at end of March 2005. As the result of the stability of the foreign exchange market, the ratio of foreign currency deposits to total deposits decreased to reach 29.5% at end of March 2005, against 32.6% at end of June 2004. Egypt's external debt (public and private) totaled US$ 30226.2 million at end of March 2005, up by about US$ 354.4 million from US$ 29871.8 million at end of June 2004. The external debt position continued to be solid and well structured, as the medium and long-term debt accounted for 94.6% of total debt, under which the public sector is the major obligor, carrying 94.9% of Egypt's external debt. The increase in Egypt's external debt was a net outcome of the depreciation of US$ 0.9 billion in the US dollar vis-à-vis other currency obligations, on the one hand, and a net repayment of US$ 0.5 billion on the other hand. Such a net repayment was a result of principal repayments of US$ 1.5 billion and disbursements of US$ 1.0 billion. External debt as a ratio of GDP decreased to reach 31.4% at end of March 2005, against 38.3% at end of March 2004. The weighted average of the interbank foreign exchange market rate -launched by the end of 2004- recorded PT 579.5 per one US dollar at end of March 2005. The LE thus appreciated accordingly by around 5.6% compared to end of December 2004. During the printing process of this report the interbank rate reached PT 578.2/US dollar at end of June 2005. * Calculated on the basis of the number of tourist nights multiplied by a tourist average spending per night.
Section I Balance of Payments
- 1 - Developments in the Balance of Payments* During July/March of FY 2004/05 Introduction Table (1) reveals the transactions on the balance of payments throughout the first nine months of FY 2004/05, compared with that of FY 2003/04. Services surplus improved and unrequited transfers increased, while trade deficit widened. The BOP current account, including transfers achieved a surplus of US$ 3.5 billion. The capital and financial account realized net inflows, compared to net outflows. The overall balance recorded a surplus of US$ 3.3 billion during July/March 2004/05 compared with a deficit of US$ 0.5 billion during July/ March 2003/04. Table (1) Balance of Payments* (US$ mn) July / March 2003/04 2004/05** Current Account 2567.8 3512.6 Current Account (Excluding Transfers) -153.7-504.4 Trade Balance -5533.0-7247.4 Exports*** 7404.1 9755.3 Oil 2850.5 3735.3 Other Exports 4553.6 6020.0 Imports*** -12937.1-17002.7 Oil -1765.3-2249.5 Other Imports -11171.8-14753.2 Service Balance 5379.3 6743.0 Receipts 9629.3 11735.2 Payments -4250.0-4992.2 Transfers 2721.5 4017.0 Official (net) 495.7 957.5 Private (net) 2225.8 3059.5 Capital and Financial Account -4098.4 519.1 Direct investment abroad -22.0-18.1 Direct investment in Egypt (net) 184.3 1915.3+ Portfolio investment abroad 89.3 545.2 Portfolio investment in Egypt (net), of which: -0.4 622.0 Sovereign bonds -62.9-3.4 Other investments (net) -4349.6-2545.3 Net Errors and Omissions 995.7-712.3 Overall Balance -534.9 3319.4 Change in Reserve Assets, Increase (-) 534.9-3319.4 * Compiled according to the Fifth Edition of the IMF's Balance of Payments Manual, September 1993. ** Preliminary figures. *** Including exports and imports of free zones. + Including FDI in petroleum sector.
- 2-1 - Current Transactions 1.1: Trade Balance As shown in Figure (1) the trade balance has demonstrated a rise in both exports and imports during July/ March, 2004/05. Import payments totaled US$ 17.0 billion, indicating a rise of US$ 4.1 billion, or 31.4% over the period of comparison. This was an outcome of a 32.1% increase in non-oil imports, to post US$ 14.8 billion, and a 27.4% increase in oil imports, to reach US$ 2.2 billion. Commodity export proceeds totaled US$ 9.8 billion, with an increase of US$ 2.4 billion, or 31.8%. This pickup was due to a 32.2% rise in non-oil export proceeds, to reach US$ 6.0 billion, and a 31.0% rise in oil export proceeds, reaching US$ 3.8 billion. As the increase in imports surpassed that of exports, the trade deficit widened by 31.0%, to reach US$ 7.2 billion against US$ 5.5 billion in the corresponding period. Meanwhile, the coverage ratio of export proceeds to import payments slightly moved from 57.2% to 57.4%. Figure (1) ( US$ bn ) 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Commodity Transactions July/ March 2003 / 2004 2004 / 2005 2003 / 2004 2004 / 2005 Exports Imports Non Oil Oil 1.2: Services Balance and Transfers Table (2) reveals that the services surplus has increased by 25.4%, to reach US$ 6.7 billion during July/ March 2004/05, against US$ 5.4 billion. This was a result of higher service receipts by 21.9%, to reach US$ 11.7 billion, and higher service payments by only 17.5%, to reach US$ 5.0 billion.
- 3 - Table (2) Services Balance (US$mn) July / March 2003/04 2004/05 Change (-) Services Balance 5379.3 6743.0 1363.7 Receipts 9629.3 11735.2 2105.9 Transport 2754.2 3107.9 353.7 Travel 4154.6 4961.6 807.0 Investment Income 379.6 595.1 215.5 Government Receipts 119.0 115.1 (3.9) Other Receipts 2221.9 2955.5 733.6 Payments 4250.0 4992.2 742.2 Transport 470.9 677.5 206.6 Travel 1051.4 1070.1 18.7 Investment Income 565.3 656.8 91.5 Government Payments 356.9 478.5 121.6 Other Payments 1805.5 2109.3 303.8 As shown in Table (2) and Figure (2), the rise in service receipts was reflected on most items. Travel receipts (tourism revenues) being a main revenue generator in service receipts, increased by 19.4% to total US$ 5.0 billion *. Tourist nights increased to 66.2 million compared to 55.4 million nights a year earlier, because Egypt intensified its marketing in Europe and attracted more visitors from the Middle East. Yet, the average expenditure of a tourist per night stood at the same level of US$ 75.0/night. Transportation rose, as well, by 12.8%, to reach US$ 3.1 billion, as a result of the pickup in the receipts of Suez Canal dues (another main revenue generator), by 15.4%, to reach US$ 2.4 million, and in the receipts of the Egyptian airline and navigation companies. The investment income receipts rose by 56.8%, due to higher interest received on deposits abroad. Other receipts rose by 33.0% to amount to US$ 3.0 billion, mainly due to an increase in the services of construction and contractors and communication. On the other hand, government receipts fell by 3.3% to total US$ 115.1 million. The 17.5% rise on the service payments side was reflected on all items. Transportation payments surged by 43.9% due to higher transfers by foreign airline companies and Egyptian navigation companies. Government payments rose by 34.1% to reach US$ 478.5 million due to higher expenditures and salaries of government officials working abroad. Other payments rose by 16.8% to reach US$ 2.1 billion, mainly due to higher transfers by Egyptian petroleum companies, higher services of communication, construction and contractors. Investment income payments rose by 16.2%, as a result of a rise in dividends on securities, profit transfers of foreign companies working in Egypt and higher interest paid on deposits of non residents at Egyptian banks. Travel payments rose by only 1.8%, mainly due to higher transfers by travel companies and hotels. Calculated on the basis of the number of tourist nights multiplied by a tourist average spending per night.
- 4 - Figure (2) (US$ bn ) 12.0 11.0 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 Services Balance July/March 2003 / 2004 2004 / 2005 Receipts Payments Travel Receipts Table (3) below shows that net unrequited transfers rose by 47.6%, recording US$ 4.0 billion in July/March, 2004/05. Official transfers increased by 93.2%, mainly due to the rise in both cash & commodity grants received. Meanwhile private transfers rose by 37.5%, as a result of the increase in workers' remittances. Table (3) Unrequited Transfers (US$ mn) July / March 2003/04 2004/05 Change (-) Total 2721.5 4017.0 1295.5 1. Official Transfers (net) 495.7 957.5 461.8 Inward cash grants 77.0 422.2 345.2 Other inward grants 437.6 563.7 126.1 Outward grants -18.9-28.4-9.5 2. Private Transfers (net) 2225.8 3059.5 833.7 Workers' remittances 2195.1 3022.7 827.6 Other transfers 51.8 51.4-0.4 Foreigners transfers abroad -21.1-14.6 6.5
- 5 - The BOP current account indicates an increase of US$ 5.8 billion or 29.1% in current receipts, to reach US$ 25.5 billion. This rise reflected a pickup in all its components, specifically, 31.8% in export proceeds, 21.9% in service receipts, 93.2% in official transfers and 37.5% in private transfers. On the other hand, current payments scaled up by 28.0% due to a rise of 31.4% in import payments and of 17.5% in service payments. (See Table [4] below) Table (4) Summary of Current Receipts and Payments July / March 2003/04 % 2004/05 % (US$mn) Change (-) Current Receipts 19754.9 100.0 25507.5 100.0 5752.6 Export Proceeds (FOB) 7404.1 37.5 9755.3 38.2 2351.2 Service Receipts 9629.3 48.7 11735.2 46.0 2105.9 Private Transfers (net) 2225.8 11.3 3059.5 12.0 833.7 Official Transfers (net) 495.7 2.5 957.5 3.8 461.8 Current Payments 17187.1 100.0 21994.9 100.0 4807.8 Import Payments (CIF) 12937.1 75.3 17002.7 77.3 4065.6 Service Payments 4250.0 24.7 4992.2 22.7 742.2 External balancing indicators have improved, as shown in Table (5). Total current receipts cover 116.0% of current payments compared to the 114.9% covered in the period July/March, 2003/04. Excluding official transfers, the ratio declined slightly to 111.6% in July/March 2004/05 against 112.1%. Table (5) Current Receipts/Current Payments Coverage Ratio (%) July / March 2003/04 2004/05 Commodity Exports/Commodity Imports 57.2 57.4 Invisible Receipts/Invisible Payments 226.6 235.1 Current Receipts/Current Payments (excluding official transfers) 112.1 111.6 Current Receipts/Current Payments 114.9 116.0
- 6-2 - Capital and Financial Account Fig. (3) and Table (6) hereunder reveal that during July/March 2004/05, the capital and financial account has achieved a net inflow of US$ 519.1 million compared with an outflow of US$ 4098.4 million during the same period of FY 2003/04. Figure (3) (US$ bn) 7.5 6.5 7 5.5 6 4.5 5 3.5 4 2.5 3 1.5 2 0.5 1 0 Capital & Financial Account July/March 2003/2004 2004/2005 Capital Inflow Capital Outflow FDI Table (6) Capital and Financial Account (US$ mn) July / March 2003/04 2004/05 Capital and Financial Account -4098.4 519.1 Direct Investment Abroad -22.0-18.1 Foreign Direct Investment in Egypt (net) 184.3 1915.3 Portfolio Investment Abroad 89.3 545.2 Portfolio Investment in Egypt (net), of which -0.4 622.0 Sovereign bonds -62.9-3.4 Other Investments (net) -4349.6-2545.3 Disbursements 2375.8 2205.8 Medium- & long- term loans 599.3 697.9 International & regional organizations 506.5 609.9 Bilateral loans 92.8 88.0 Medium- and long-term suppliers & buyers credit 352.4 21.1 Short-term suppliers & buyers credit (net) 1424.1 1486.8 Repayments -1476.8-1460.4 Medium- & long-term loans -1188.2-1235.6 International & regional organizations -476.6-452.0 Bilateral loans -711.6-783.6 Medium- and long-term suppliers & buyers credit -288.6-224.8 Other Assets -4438.4-3168.4 CBE -33.8-1.4 Banks -1883.1-2151.2 Others -2521.5-1015.8 Other Liabilities -810.2-122.3 CBE -20.1-3.4 Banks -790.1-118.9 Preliminary.
- 7 - The following are the factors that have influenced the capital and financial account during July/March 2004/05 as compared with the same period of FY 2003/04: - Foreign investments in Egypt (direct and portfolio) realized total inflows of US$ 4731.4 million and total outflows of US$ 2194.1 million, compared with US$ 1006.8 million, and US$ 822.9 million respectively in the corresponding period of the previous year. Such transactions led to net inflows totalling US$ 2537.3 million during July/March 2004/05 against US$ 183.9 million. Foreign direct investments in Egypt realized a net inflow of US$ 1915.3 million (including investments of US$ 1.5 billion in the petroleum sector and receipts of US$ 0.3 billion from selling some local companies to foreign investors) against US$ 184.3 million. Portfolio investment in Egypt unfolded net inflows of US$ 622.0 million compared with net outflows of US$ 0.4 million. Noticeably foreigners' tradings on the Egyptian Stock Market revealed net purchases of US$ 625.4 million compared to US$ 62.5 million. Total purchases amounted to US$ 2622.1 million against US$ 798.8 million, while total sales were US$ 1996.7 million, against US$ 736.3 million. Portfolio investment in Egypt also included purchases in the amount of US$ 3.4 million by resident financial institutions (banks and insurance companies) of sovereign bonds issued abroad, against US$ 62.9 million. - Medium & long- term loans and suppliers' credit, during July/March 2004/05 revealed net repayments of US$ 741.4 million against US$ 525.1 million. Total disbursements for such loans and facilities retreated to US$ 719.0 million from US$ 951.7 million. Total repayments fell to US$ 1460.4 billion, from US$ 1476.8 million. The fall in total disbursements was a result of lower medium and long term suppliers' credit, to record US$ 21.1 million compared to US$ 352.4 million. Also the drop in total repayments is ascribed to a decrease in medium & long-term suppliers' credits, reaching US$ 224.8 million, against US$ 288.6 million. - Short term suppliers' credit revealed net disbursements of US$ 1.5 billion against US$ 1.4 billion. - Foreign assets of the banking system improved by US$ 2.2 billion against US$ 1.9 billion. Foreign assets of banks increased by US$ 2151.2 million compared with US$ 1883.1 million; and non-reserve foreign assets of the Central Bank rose by US$ 1.4 million against US$ 33.8 million in the period of comparison.
- 8 - - Other assets decreased by 59.7%, to amount to US$ 1.0 billion compared with US$ 2.5 billion due to higher banknote purchases through banks during the period under review. - Other liabilities fell by US$ 122.3 million against US$ 810.2 million, because of the decrease in banks foreign liabilities by US$ 118.9 million in July/March 2004/05, compared with US$ 790.1 million, and in CBE s foreign liabilities by US$ 3.4 million compared with US$ 20.1 million. 3 - Overall Balance The overall surplus amounted to US$ 3319.4 million in July/March 2004/05 (3.6% of GDP) against a deficit of US$ 534.9 million (-0.7% of GDP). Table (7) Balance of Payments: Summary (US$ mn) July / March 2003/04 2004/05* Current Account Balance 2567.8 3512.6 Capital & Financial Account -4098.4 519.1 Foreign Direct Investment (inflow-outflow) 162.3 1897.2 Portfolio Investment (inflow-outflow) 88.9 1167.2 Net Borrowing 899.0 745.4 CBE Non-reserve Foreign Assets** -33.8-1.4 CBE Short-term Liabilities -20.1-3.4 Net Foreign Assets of Banks** -2673.2-2270.1 Other Assets -2521.5-1015.8 Net Errors & Omissions 995.7-712.3 Overall Balance -534.9 3319.4 Change in CBE's Reserve Assets** 534.9-3319.4 * Preliminary. ** Increase = Minus.
Section II External Liquidity Net International Reserves Net Foreign Assets of Banks
- 9-1- Net International Reserves (NIR) During July/March 2004/05, NIR increased by US$ 3.3 billion, against a decrease of US$ 480 million, to reach US$ 18.0 billion at end of March 2005. However, the NIR coverage ratio for commodity imports reached 9.6 months at end of March 2005. While this report was under preparation, net international reserves (NIR) reached US$ 19.2 billion at end of June 2005. Table (8) (US$ mn) June March June March June* End of 2003 2004 2004 2005 2005 Net International Reserves (1-2) 14809 14329 14781 18043 19222 1- Gross Official Reserves 14845 14345 14800 18059 19241 Gold 631 631 717 717 779 Foreign Exchange 13837 13368 13734 17003 18129 SDRs 51 64 73 93 93 Other 326 282 276 246 240 2- Reserve Liabilities 36 16 19 16 19 Reserves/Months Imports 12.0 9.4 9.7 9.6 10.2 * Provisional. Figure (4) US$ bn NIR and months imports covered ( Balance at end of month) (Month) 19.5 16.5 18.0 16.5 15.0 13.5 12.0 10.5 15.0 13.5 12.0 10.5 9.0 Foreign Exchange Gold 9.0 7.5 6.0 4.5 3.0 1.5 0.0 Jun- 03 Sep- 03 Dec- 03 Mar- 04 Jun- 04 Sep- 04 Dec- 04 Mar- 05 Jun- 05 7.5 6.0 4.5 3.0 1.5 0.0 Other Reserves/ Months Imports
- 10-2- Net Foreign Assets of Banks (NFA) Banks net foreign assets increased by US$ 2.3 billion during July/March of FY 2004/05, to reach US$ 8.0 billion at end of March 2005. (See Figure [5]) Figure (5) Net Foreign Assets of Banks US$ bn 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 Jun 03 Sep 03 Dec 03 Mar 04 Jun 04 Sep 04 Dec 04 Mar 05 Assets Liabilities During July/March 2004/05, foreign currency deposits with banks increased by 7.0% against 10.9% in the corresponding period, to reach US$ 21.3 billion at end of March 2005. On the other hand, local currency deposits increased by 15.5% against 7.2%. Accordingly, the ratio of foreign currency deposits to total deposits dropped from 32.6% at end of June 2004 to 29.5% at end of March 2005. Figure (6) LE bn Developments in Deposits by Local and Foreign Currencies ( Balance at end of month) 450 400 350 300 Foreign Currency Deposits 250 200 150 Local Currency Deposits 100 50 0 Jun- 03 Sep- 03 Dec-03 Mar- 04 Jun- 04 Sep- 04 Dec- 04 Mar- 05
Section III External Debt
- 11-1 - Egypt s External Debt Egypt s external debt (public and private) in US dollar reached US$ 30.2 billion at end of March 2005, denoting a rise of US$ 0.4 billion or 1.2 %. The rise was an outcome of the exchange rate effects (depreciation of the US dollar vis-à-vis other currencies of borrowing) amounting to US$ 0.9 billion, on the one hand, and a net repayment of US$ 0.5 billion, on the other hand. Table (9) End of External Debt (US$ mn) June 2004 March 2005 Change Value % Value % + (-) External Debt 29871.8 100.0 30226.2 100.0 354.4 Rescheduled bilateral debt* 16384.8 54.9 16363.4 54.1 (21.4) ODA ** 8052.6 27.0 8047.6 26.6 (5.0) Non-ODA 8332.2 27.9 8315.8 27.5 (16.4) Other bilateral debt 4432.8 14.8 4501.5 14.9 68.7 Paris Club countries 3263.4 10.9 3409.0 11.3 145.6 Other countries 1169.4 3.9 1092.5 3.6 (76.9) International & regional organizations 5080.8 17.0 5354.6 17.7 273.8 Suppliers' & buyers' credit 1333.0 4.5 1163.3 3.9 (169.7) Sovereign bonds 587.7 2.0 584.3 1.9 (3.4) Long-term Deposits + 0.0 0.0 500.0 1.7 500.0 Short-term debt: 1967.5 6.5 1644.0 5.4 (323.5) Deposits 1267.5 4.2 622.0 2.0 (645.5) Other facilities 700.0 2.3 1022.0 3.4 322.0 Private sector (non-guaranteed) 85.2 0.3 115.1 0.4 29.9 * According to the agreement signed with Paris Club countries on 25/5/1991 ** Official Development Assistance + As of December 2004, the deposit of the Arab International Bank was transferred from short-term debt to long-term deposits.
- 12 - Figure (7) US$ mn 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 External Debt By Maturity & Debtor Sector End of March 2003 2004 2005 Medium & Long-term External Debt Public Sector Debt Short-term External Debt Private Sector Debt Data on external debt reveal an ongoing improvement in the external debt structure, as medium- and long-term debt accounted for 94.6% of total debt, and short-term debt accounted for 5.4%. The public sector owed 94.9% of Egypt s external debt, and the private sector owed 5.1%. (see Figure [7] above) In spite of the net repayments realized during July/March 2004/05, which reached US$ 0.5 billion, the medium- and long-term debt increased by US$ 0.7 billion, to reach US$ 28.6 billion at end of March 2005, compared with end of June 2004. Such an increase was a result of the depreciation of the US dollar vis-à-vis other currencies of borrowing. It is worth noting that the net repayments were an outcome of principal repayments of US$ 1.5 billion and disbursements of only US$ 1.0 billion. 2 - External Debt by Creditor A breakdown of Egypt s external debt by creditor indicates that bilateral loans owed to Paris Club members (rescheduled and non-rescheduled) accounted for 65.4% of the total, reaching US$ 19.8 billion at end of March 2005. Debt owed to non Paris Club members amounted to US$ 1.1 billion, or 3.6%. The outstanding debt of suppliers and buyers credit amounted to US$ 1.2 billion, or 3.9% of the total. Egypt s debt to international and regional organizations reached US$ 5.4 billion at end of March 2005, accounting for 17.7% of the total.
- 13 - The stock of sovereign bonds decreased by US$ 3.4 million, to reach US$ 584.3 million or 1.9% at end of March 2005, against US$ 587.7 million at end of June 2004. Long term deposits accounted for 1.7% of the total, reaching US$ 500 million at end of March 2005. Short-term debt decreased by US$ 323.5 million, to reach US$ 1.6 billion or 5.4% of the total. The non-guaranteed debt of the private sector decreased by US$ 29.9 million, to reach US$ 115.1 million or 0.4% of the total. It is worth noting that 58.0% of Egypt's external debt is owed to France, the USA, Japan and Germany. 3 - External Debt by Debtor Table (10) reveals that the external debt data display an increase of US$ 0.4 billion in main institutional sectors during July/March 2004/05. Specifically, the balance due on the other sectors increased by US$ 533.4 million, and the Central Bank by US$ 48.1 million. In contrast, there was a decrease in the balance due on banks by US$ 170.8 million and central and local government by US$ 56.3 million. In spite of the said developments, the structure of Egypt s external debt by debtor has not seen any significant change during the period under review. The central and local government, as shown in the table, has continued to be the main debtor, with US$ 18.9 billion or 62.5% of the total, representing claims on the government. Table (10) End of External Debt by Debtor June March 2004 % 2005 % (US$ mn) Change + (-) External Debt 29871.8 100.0 30226.2 100.0 354.4 Total Medium- & Long-Term Debt 27904.3 93.4 28582.2 94.6 677.9 Total Short-Term Debt 1967.5 6.6 1644.0 5.4 (323.5) Central & Local Government 18964.5 63.5 18908.2 62.5 (56.3) Medium- & Long-term Debt, of which 18964.5 63.5 18908.2 62.5 (56.3) Bonds & Notes 587.7 2.0 584.3 1.9 (3.4) Short-term Debt 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Monetary Authority 987.0 3.3 1035.1 3.5 48.1 Medium- & Long-term Debt 337.0 1.1 885.1 3.0 548.1 Short-term Debt 650.0 2.2 150.0 0.5 (500.0) Banks 2353.3 7.9 2182.5 7.2 (170.8) Medium- & Long-term Debt 1035.8 3.5 1415.5 4.7 379.7 Short-term Debt 1317.5 4.4 767.0 2.5 (550.5) Other Sectors 7567.0 25.3 8100.4 26.8 533.4 Medium- & Long-term Debt 7567.0 25.3 7373.4 24.4 (193.6) Short-term Debt 0.0 0.0 727.0 2.4 727.0
4 - External Debt Indicators - 14 - External debt service payments decreased by US$ 44.2 million during July/March 2004/05, to reach about US$ 2.0 billion. This was a result of the US$ 16.4 million decrease in principal repayments, to reach US$ 1.5 billion, and of the US$ 27.8 million decrease in interest payments, to stand at US$ 0.5 billion. The debt service ratio to export proceeds of goods and services declined to 9.1% during July/March 2004/05, from 11.7% in the previous corresponding period. This was mainly due to an increase in commodity exports, travel receipts and Suez Canal dues. In the same manner, debt service ratio to current receipts stepped down to 7.6%, compared with 10.1%. (See Figure [8] and Table [11]) In the meantime, the ratio of short-term debt to total external debt declined from 5.9% to 5.4%. Similarly, its ratio to NIR decreased from 12.4% to 9.1%. As a percentage of GDP, the external debt decreased to reach 31.4% at end of March 2005, against 38.3% at end of March 2004. Figure (8) % External Debt Indicators July/ March 20 15 10 5 0 2002/2003 2003/2004 2004/2005 Short-term Debt / External Debt (end of period) Short-term Debt / Net International Reserves (end of period) Debt Services / Exports (G & S) % Debt Services / Current Receipts % External Debt/GDP(right axis) 40.0 37.5 35.0 32.5 30.0 27.5 25.0 22.5 20.0 17.5 15.0 Table (11) External Debt Indicators (%) July / March 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 Debt Service/Exports (G&S) 13.3 11.7 9.1 Debt Service/Current Receipts 11.1 10.1 7.6 Short-term Debt/External Debt (end of period) 7.3 5.9 5.4 Short-term Debt/NIR (end of period) 14.9 12.4 9.1 External Debt/GDP 39.4 38.3 31.4
Section IV Exchange Rate Developments
- 15 - Exchange Rate Developments Since January 29,2003 the Egyptian pound exchange rate has been liberalized. According to CBE Central Chamber for FX Statistics, the weighted average of the US dollar exchange rate in the interbank foreign exchange market reached pt 579.5100 at end of March 2005, against pt 619.5205 at end of March 2004. As such, the EGP exchange rate appreciated by about 6.9% during the year under review. This appreciation is mainly attributed to the sustainable success of the interbank foreign exchange market which was launched on 23 rd December 2004. During the printing process of this report, the interbank rate reached PT 579.7 and PT 578.2/US dollar at end of May and June 2005, respectively. Table (12) USD/EGP End of March Weighted Average Rate (In Piasters) Buy Sell Average 2003 573.5486 575.7886 574.6686* 2004 618.8652 620.1758 619.5205* 2005 - - 579.5100** EGP appreciation (%) 6.90% End of June 578.2000 * Weighted average at all market participants including CBE. ** Weighted average of the interbank foreign exchange market. Figure (9) Banks Rate (buy) US$/EGP Weighted Average Rate (in Piastres)- End of Month 630.0 620.0 610.0 600.0 590.0 580.0 570.0 March 03 March 04 March 05 June 05
Appendices
A. Main Statistics Page I- Balance of Payments Balance of Payments (July/March 2003/04 2004/05) 19 Balance of Payments (contd.) 20 II- External Liquidity Net International Reserves & Net Foreign Assets of Banking System 21 III- External Debt External Debt.. 22 External Debt by Debtor. 23 IV- Exchange Rate Developments Exchange Rates ( in piasters per foreign currency unit ). 24
- 19 - Table (1) Balance of Payments (US$ mn) July/March 2003/04 2004/05* Trade Balance -5533.0-7247.4 Exports** 7404.1 9755.3 Petroleum 2850.5 3735.3 Other Exports 4553.6 6020.0 Imports** -12937.1-17002.7 Petroleum -1765.3-2049.9 Other Imports -11171.8-14952.8 Services (Net) 5379.3 6743.0 Receipts 9629.3 11735.2 Transportation, of which : 2754.2 3107.9 Suez Canal (2100.7) (2425.2) Travel 4154.6 4961.6 Investment Income 379.6 595.1 Government Services 119.0 115.1 Other 2221.9 2955.5 Payments -4250.0-4992.2 Transportation -470.9-677.5 Travel -1051.4-1070.1 Investment Income, of which -565.3-656.8 Interest Paid (-481.8) (-483.4) Government Expenditures -356.9-478.5 Other -1805.5-2109.3 Balance of Goods & Services -153.7-504.4 Transfers 2721.5 4017.0 Private Transfers (Net) 2225.8 3059.5 Official Transfers (Net) 495.7 957.5 Current Account Balance 2567.8 3512.6 * Preliminary. **Include free zones exports and imports.
- 20 - Table (1) Balance of Payments (contd.) (US$ mn) 2003/04 2004/05* Capital & Financial Account -4098.4 519.1 Financial Account -4098.4 519.1 Direct Investment Abroad -22.0-18.1 Direct Investment in Egypt (Net) 184.3 1915.3 ** Portfolio Investment Abroad 89.3 545.2 Portfolio Investment in Egypt (Net), of which: -0.4 622.0 Bonds -62.9-3.4 Other Investment (Net) -4349.6-2545.3 Net Borrowing 899.0 745.4 M&L -Term Loans (Net) -588.9-537.7 Drawings 599.3 697.9 Repayments -1188.2-1235.6 MT- Suppliers' Credit (Net) 63.8-203.7 Drawings 352.4 21.1 Repayments -288.6-224.8 ST- Suppliers' Credit (Net) 1424.1 1486.8 Other Assets -4438.4-3168.4 Central Bank -33.8-1.4 Banks -1883.1-2151.2 Other -2521.5-1015.8 Other Liabilities -810.2-122.3 Central Bank -20.1-3.4 Banks -790.1-118.9 Net Errors & Omissions 995.7-712.3 Overall Balance -534.9 3319.4 Change in CBE Reserve Assets,Increase(-) 534.9-3319.4 *Preliminary. **Include US$ 1475.8 m.foreign direct investments in petroleum sector and US$ 327.9 m.reciepts of selling some local companies July/March
Table (2) :Net International Reserves & Net Foreign Assets of Banking System End of (US$ mn) June June June June March June March 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2004 2005 Net International Reserves(1-2) 15130.4 14244.0 14146.6 14808.6 14329.2 14780.6 18042.7 1- Gross Official Reserves 15160.6 14269.2 14179.1 14844.7 14345.3 14800.1 18058.8 Gold 511.1 488.2 570.7 631.2 631.2 716.9 716.9 Foreign exchange 14220.9 13374.7 13228.1 13836.6 13368.0 13734.8 17002.8 SDRs 35.7 37.7 34.4 51.4 64.2 72.7 92.7 Other 392.9 368.6 345.9 325.5 281.9 275.7 246.4-21 - 2- Reserve Liabilities 30.2 25.2 32.5 36.1 16.1 19.5 16.1 Banks' Net Foreign Assets 2681.1 1394.3 1614.3 2169.5 4842.6 5705.3 7975.4 Assets 7347.4 6328.9 6102.8 6594.8 8478.0 9188.1 11339.3 Liabilities 4666.3 4934.6 4488.5 4425.3 3635.4 3482.8 3363.9
Table (3) External Debt (US$ mn) End of June June June June March June March 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2004 2005 Total External Debt* 27783.3 26560.0 28660.8 29396.2 30112.9 29871.8 30226.2 Rescheduled bilateral debt ** 16291.8 14779.4 15336.4 16192.0 16603.6 16384.8 16363.4 ODA 7968.7 7345.1 7455.6 7900.0 8181.2 8052.6 8047.6 Non-ODA 8323.1 7434.3 7880.8 8292.0 8422.4 8332.2 8315.8 Other bilateral debt 4226.4 3894.4 4057.2 4350.0 4540.1 4432.8 4501.5 Paris Club countries 3677.0 3353.0 3405.0 3320.0 3487.4 3263.4 3409.0 Other countries 549.4 541.4 652.2 1030.0 1052.7 1169.4 1092.5 International & regional institutions 4275.2 4310.4 4697.4 4904.0 5098.7 5080.8 5354.6 Suppliers' & buyers' credits 980.6 896.0 923.8 1133.1 1273.3 1333.0 1163.3 Sovereign bonds 0.0 0.0 953.6 735.4 672.5 587.7 584.3 Long -term deposits + 500.0 Short-term debt 1627.9 2207.0 2150.0 1864.5 1784.0 1967.5 1644.0 Private sector debt (non-guaranteed) 381.4 472.8 542.4 217.2 140.7 85.2 115.1-22 - Source: Central Bank of Egypt. * The difference from World Bank Data is in short-term debt. ** According to the agreement signed with Paris Club countries on May 25, 1991. + It has been agreed to consider the Arab International Bank Deposit as Medium and long Term External Debt.
-23- Table (4) External Debt by Debtor (US$ mn) End of Jun-04 % Mar-05 % Change (-) % External Debt 29871.8 100.0 30226.2 100.0 354.4 1.2 Total Medium & Long-Term 27904.3 93.4 28582.2 94.6 677.9 2.4 Total Short-Term 1967.5 6.6 1644.0 5.4 (323.5) (16.4) Central & Local Government 18964.5 63.5 18908.2 62.5 (56.3) (0.3) Medium & Long-Term (of which) 18964.5 63.5 18908.2 62.5 (56.3) (0.3) Bonds & Notes 587.7 2.0 584.3 1.9 (3.4) (0.6) Loans 18376.8 61.5 18323.9 60.6 (52.9) (0.3) Currency and Deposits Other Liabilities Short-Term 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Monetary Authority 987.0 3.3 1035.1 3.5 48.1 4.9 Medium & Long-Term 337.0 1.1 885.1 3.0 548.1 162.6 Bonds & Notes Loans 337.0 1.1 385.1 1.3 48.1 14.3 Currency and Deposits 0.0 0.0 500.0 1.7 500.0 0.0 Other Liabilities Short-Term 650.0 2.2 150.0 0.5 (500.0) (76.9) Money Market Instruments Loans Currency and Deposits 650.0 2.2 150.0 0.5 (500.0) (76.9) Other Liabilities Banks 2353.3 7.9 2182.5 7.2 (170.8) (7.3) Medium & Long-Term Loans 1035.8 3.5 1415.5 4.7 379.7 36.7 Bonds & Notes Loans 1035.8 3.5 1415.5 4.7 379.7 36.7 Currency and Deposits Other Liabilities Short-Term Loans 1317.5 4.4 767.0 2.5 (550.5) (41.8) Money Market Instruments Loans 87.7 0.3 31.7 0.1 (56.0) (63.9) Currency and Deposits 617.5 2.1 472.0 1.5 (145.5) (23.6) Other Liabilities 612.3 2.0 263.3 0.9 (349.0) (57.0) Other Sectors 7567.0 25.3 8100.4 26.8 533.4 7.0 Medium & Long-Term 7567.0 25.3 7373.4 24.4 (193.6) (2.6) Loans from direct investors Bonds & Notes Trade credits Loans 7567.0 25.3 7373.4 24.4 (193.6) (2.6) Currency and Deposits Other Liabilities Short-Term 0.0 0.0 727.0 2.4 727.0 0.0 Loans from direct investors Money Market Instruments Trade credits 0.0 0.0 727.0 2.4 727.0 0.0 Loans Currency and Deposits Other Liabilities
Table (5) Exchange Rates (In piasters per foreign currency unit ) End of Dec.2004 March 2005 First: Interbank Rates Minimum Maximum Weighted average 611.75 615.75 614.14 579.46 579.54 579.51 Second : Market Rates Buy Sell Buy Sell US Dollar 614.4500 615.0000 578.8100 581.5200-24 - Euro 835.2800 836.0300 750.0800 753.8300 Pound Sterling 1176.7300 1177.7800 1089.6100 1094.8900 Swiss Franc 567.3000 567.4500 484.3600 486.8300 100 Japanese Yens 590.8200 591.3400 542.0100 544.8500 Saudi Riyal 163.8600 164.0000 154.3300 155.0700 Kuwaiti Dinar 2085.5000 2087.3500 1981.4800 1992.1200 UAE Dirham 167.3000 167.4500 157.5800 158.3300 Source: CBE daily exchange rates.
B. Detailed Tables and Charts of the External Debt Page I- Total External Debt 27 A. Stock of Medium -and Long-Term 1. Public and Publicly Guaranteed a. By Creditor... 29 b. Paris Club Bilateral Debt.. 31 (1) Third Stage of Agreed Minute of May 25, 1991 32 (2) Contracted after October 31, 1986.. 33 c. Non-Paris Club Bilateral Debt.. 35 d. Multilateral Agencies 36 2. Private Sector, Non-Guaranteed... 38 B. Outstanding External Short-Term Debt 39 C. Disbursed and Undisbursed Amounts of Contracted Loans. 40 II- Total Medium-and Long-Term External Debt Service 41 A. Public and Publicly Guaranteed 1. Paris Club Bilateral Debt... 43 a. Third Stage of Agreed Minute of May 25, 1991. 45 b. Contracted after October 31,1986 46 2. Non-Paris Club Bilateral Debt... 47 3. Multilateral Agencies 48 B. Private Sector, Non-Guaranteed... 50 III- Exchange Rates of the Currencies of External Debt Versus US Dollar 51
2002 2003 2004 2005 1- Medium-and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed Debt 24,808.02 26,332.91 28,188.19 28,467.06 A. Paris Club Debt 18,653.44 19,744.93 21,364.28 20,935.61 1-May 1991 (Third Stage) 14,393.47 15,502.51 16,603.61 16,363.38 2-Post Cut-Off Date 4,259.97 4,242.42 4,760.67 4,572.23 B. Non- Paris Club Debt 543.43 975.78 1,052.73 1,092.54 C. Multilateral Agencies 4,511.45 4,931.10 5,098.68 5,354.61 D. Sovereign Bonds 1,099.70 681.10 672.50 584.30 E. Arab International Bank Deposits {2} 0.00 0.00 0.00 500.00 2- Medium-and Long-Term Private Sector Non-Guaranteed Debt 518.45 255.24 140.66 115.17 3- Short-Term Debt 2,190.32 2,104.30 1,784.05 1,644.01 Deposits (Non Residents) 957.69 830.32 767.63 621.96 Arab International Bank Deposit 500.00 500.00 500.00 0.00 Others 732.63 773.98 516.42 1,022.05 Grand Total 27,516.79 28,692.45 30,112.90 30,226.24 {1} End of period exchange rate. {2} It has been agreed to include the Arab International Bank deposit in medium -and long- term external debt. Figure 1-1 -27- Table ( 1 ) Total External Debt Stock as at End of March Total Debt (US$mn){1} 31.0 30.0 29.0 28.0 27.0 26.0 25.0 24.0 ( US$bn ) Total External Debt Stock as at End of March 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Figure 1-2 Stock of Medium-and Long-Term Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt as at End of March 2005 Non-Paris Club Debt 4% Sovereign bonds 2% Arab International Bank Deposit 2% Multilateral Agencies 19% - 28 - Paris Club Bilateral Debt 73%
-29- Table ( 2 ) Stock of Medium-and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt by Creditor Country as at End of March (US$mn){1} Total Debt Country 2002 2003 2004 2005 Int'l Organizations 4,511.45 4,931.10 5,098.67 5,354.61 France 3,942.94 4,571.74 4,971.45 4,941.91 United States 5,351.07 5,083.04 4,811.32 4,533.56 Japan 3,202.23 3,342.73 4,394.04 4,219.06 Germany, Fed.Rep.of 2,286.73 2,833.47 3,189.00 3,376.82 Spain 836.38 832.03 812.38 825.68 Italy 969.28 918.50 867.20 799.52 Austria 464.23 550.79 588.87 591.24 Sovereign Bonds 1,099.70 681.10 672.50 584.30 Arab International Bank Deposit {2} 0.00 0.00 0.00 500.00 Switzerland 400.16 478.62 483.91 487.58 Bahrain 0.00 300.00 303.30 422.20 Kuwait 301.50 328.67 402.67 406.42 United Kingdom 493.62 350.23 385.38 289.38 Canada 188.93 196.15 208.15 213.36 Australia 183.64 191.38 214.30 206.18 Denmark 118.28 143.42 168.44 177.71 China,P.R.oF 79.87 97.35 102.83 109.28 Belgium 77.81 91.30 98.07 97.88 The Netherlands 65.50 80.31 89.45 94.02 United Arab Emirates 105.14 100.93 95.39 85.54 Saudi Arabia 54.24 147.59 148.13 67.71 Sweden 39.75 44.54 45.69 44.39 Norway 32.89 36.68 36.63 37.32 Jordan 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.20 Taiwan 0.00 0.00 0.32 0.16 Germany, Dem.R.of 0.51 0.51 0.03 0.03 Turkey 0.15 0.27 0.07 0.00 Romania 1.15 0.38 0.00 0.00 Bulgaria 0.82 0.07 0.00 0.00 India 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 Hungary 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 Grand Total 24,808.02 26,332.91 28,188.19 28,467.06 {1} End of period exchange rate. {2} It has been agreed to include the Arab International Bank deposit in medium -and long- term external debt.
Figure 2 Stock of Medium-and Long-Term Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt by Creditor Country as at End of March 2005 Germany 12% Spain 3% Italy 3% Int'l Organization 19% - 30 - Japan 15% France 17% Others 15% United States 16%
-31- Country (US$mn){2} 2002 2003 2004 2005 France 3,942.94 4,571.74 4,971.45 4,941.91 United States 5,351.07 5,083.04 4,811.32 4,533.56 Japan 3,202.23 3,342.73 4,394.04 4,219.06 Germany,Fed.Rep.of 2,286.73 2,833.47 3,189.00 3,376.82 Spain 836.38 832.03 812.38 825.68 Italy 969.28 918.50 867.20 799.52 Austria 464.23 550.79 588.87 591.24 Switzerland 400.16 478.62 483.91 487.58 United Kingdom 493.62 350.23 385.38 289.38 Canada 188.93 196.15 208.15 213.36 Australia 183.64 191.38 214.30 206.18 Denmark 118.28 143.42 168.44 177.71 Belgium 77.81 91.30 98.07 97.88 The Netherlands 65.50 80.31 89.45 94.02 Sweden 39.75 44.54 45.69 44.39 Norway 32.89 36.68 36.63 37.32 Grand Total 18,653.44 19,744.93 21,364.28 20,935.61 {1} This Table is the total of Tables No 4 and 5. {2} End of period exchange rate. Figure 3 Table ( 3 ) {1} Stock of Medium-and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Paris Club Bilateral Debt as at End of March Total Debt Stock of Medium-and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Paris Club Bilateral Debt as at End of March ( US$bn ) 22.0 21.0 20.0 19.0 18.0 17.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
-32- Table ( 4 ) Stock of Medium-and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Paris Club Bilateral Debt Third Stage of The Agreed Minute on May 25,1991 as at End of March Country Total Debt (US$mn){1} 2002 2003 2004 2005 France 3,330.31 3,865.41 4,113.56 4,138.58 United States 4,341.19 4,145.66 3,944.09 3,736.50 Japan 2,181.48 2,413.30 3,172.29 3,048.26 Germany,Fed.Rep.of 1,424.44 1,747.39 1,947.33 2,048.09 Spain 836.38 813.22 784.78 751.47 Austria 431.59 513.50 552.90 559.33 Italy 568.75 555.99 538.36 516.45 Switzerland 371.98 444.77 452.15 459.72 United Kingdom 224.59 244.32 275.33 273.76 Australia 183.64 191.39 214.30 206.18 Canada 180.54 187.48 199.11 204.15 Denmark 118.06 143.14 154.65 159.00 The Netherlands 65.19 79.96 89.11 93.71 Belgium 71.58 84.00 89.68 90.17 Sweden 30.86 36.30 39.34 40.69 Norway 32.89 36.68 36.63 37.32 Grand Total 14,393.47 15,502.51 16,603.61 16,363.38 {1} End of period exchange rate. Figure 4 18.0 Stock of Medium-and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Paris Club Bilateral Debt Third Stage of The Agreed Minute on May 25,1991 as at End of March ( US$bn ) 17.0 16.0 15.0 14.0 13.0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
-33- Table (5) Stock of Medium-and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Paris Club Bilateral Debt Contracted after October 31,1986 as at End of March Country Total Debt (US$mn){1} 2002 2003 2004 2005 United States 1,009.87 937.38 867.23 797.07 United Kingdom 269.03 105.91 110.05 15.63 The Netherlands 0.32 0.35 0.34 0.31 Switzerland 28.18 33.84 31.76 27.86 Sweden 8.89 8.24 6.35 3.70 Spain 0.00 18.81 27.60 74.20 Japan 1,020.75 929.43 1,221.75 1,170.80 Italy 400.53 362.51 328.84 283.07 Germany,Fed.Rep.of 862.30 1,086.08 1,241.68 1,328.73 France 612.62 706.33 857.89 803.33 Denmark 0.22 0.27 13.79 18.70 Canada 8.39 8.68 9.03 9.21 Belgium 6.24 7.30 8.39 7.71 Austria 32.63 37.29 35.97 31.91 Grand Total 4,259.97 4,242.42 4,760.67 4,572.23 {1} End of period exchange rate. Figure 5-1 4,800 Stock of Medium-and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Contracted after October 31, 1986 as at End of March ( US$mn ) 4,600 4,400 4,200 4,000 3,800 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Figure 5-2 Stock of Medium-and Long-Term Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Paris Club Bilateral Debt as at End of March 2005 Post Cut-Off Date 22% -34 - May 1991 (Third Stage) 78%
- 35- Table ( 6 ) Stock of Medium-and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Non-Paris Club Bilateral Debt as at End of March Country Total Debt (US$mn){1} 2002 2003 2004 2005 Bahrain 0.00 300.00 303.30 422.20 Kuwait 301.50 328.67 402.67 406.42 China,P.R.of 79.87 97.35 102.83 109.28 United Arab Emirates 105.14 100.93 95.38 85.54 Saudi Arabia 54.24 147.59 148.13 67.71 Jordan 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.20 Taiwan 0.00 0.00 0.32 0.16 Germany Dem.Rep 0.51 0.51 0.03 0.03 Turkey 0.15 0.27 0.07 0.00 Romania 1.15 0.38 0.00 0.00 Bulgaria 0.82 0.07 0.00 0.00 India 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 Yugoslavia 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 Grand total 543.43 975.78 1052.73 1,092.54 {1} End of period exchange rate. Figure 6 1,200 1,000 Stock of Medium-and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Non-Paris Club Bilateral Debt as at End of March ( US$mn ) 800 600 400 200 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
- 36 - Table ( 7 ) Stock of Medium-and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Multilateral Agencies as at End of March Creditor Total Debt (US$mn){1} 2002 2003 2004 2005 I.D.A 1,252.09 1,335.42 1,408.89 1,416.26 European Investment Bank 655.17 828.74 1,071.64 1,217.21 Arab Fund For Economic And Social Development 931.26 916.58 971.72 984.41 I.B.R.D 592.72 540.17 492.68 419.56 Arab Monetray Fund 233.88 362.96 386.70 365.13 African Development Bank 466.90 387.16 323.22 339.08 Islamic Development Bank 135.15 289.19 167.05 311.36 African Development Fund 146.74 166.13 170.76 181.78 International Fund For Agricultural Development 72.18 84.17 90.84 90.37 Arab Trade Financing Program 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.00 Arab International Bank 21.53 16.74 11.96 7.18 Nordic Investment Bank 3.83 3.84 3.22 2.27 Grand Total 4,511.45 4,931.10 5,098.68 5,354.61 {1} End of period exchange rate. Figure 7-1 Stock of Medium-and Long-Term Public &Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Multilateral Agencies as at End of March ( US$mn ) 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Figure 7-2 Stock of Medium-and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Multilateral Agencies as at End of March 2005 Arab Monetary Fund 7% African Development Bank 6% I.B.R.D 8% I.D.A 27% - 37 - Others 11% Arab Fund For Economic And Social Development 18% European Investment Bank 23%
- 38 - Table ( 8 ) Stock of Medium-and Long-Term Private Sector Non-Guaranteed External Debt as at End of March Country Total Debt (US$mn){1} 2002 2003 2004 2005 Japan 0.00 0.00 0.00 50.00 Int'l Organizations 5.56 79.08 55.00 45.00 United Arab Emirates 9.00 26.30 17.50 17.50 Austria 1.77 2.18 2.45 2.59 United Kingdom 236.00 80.64 11.38 0.08 Germany,Fed.Rep.of 64.96 64.47 53.06 0.00 United States 200.12 1.80 0.90 0.00 Italy 0.95 0.75 0.37 0.00 Sudan 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 Malaysia 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 France 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 Grand Total 518.45 255.24 140.66 115.17 {1} End of period exchange rate. Figure 8 Stock of Medium-and Long-Term Private Sector Non-Guaranteed External Debt as at End of March 600.00 500.00 400.00 ( US$mn ) 300.00 200.00 100.00 0.00 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
- 39 - Table ( 9 ) Outstanding External Short-Term Debt as at End of March (US$mn){1} Total Debt 2002 2003 2004 2005 Short-Term Debt {2} 2,044.76 1,957.24 1,692.57 1,380.73 Non-Financial Public Sector 51.36 96.50 58.87 471.30 Financial Public Sector {2} 370.17 342.07 317.78 331.10 Private Sector Guaranteed 126.66 111.62 85.57 55.67 Private Sector Non-Guaranteed 996.57 907.05 730.35 522.66 Arab International Bank Deposit {3} 500.00 500.00 500.00 0.00 Short-Term Banking Facilities 145.56 147.06 91.48 263.28 Public Sector Banks 1.98 0.36 0.18 0.47 Praivate Banks 143.58 146.70 91.30 262.81 Grand Total 2,190.32 2,104.30 1,784.05 1,644.01 {1} End of period exchange rate. {2} Excludes banking facilities. {3} It has been agreed to include the Arab International Bank deposit in medium and long term external debt. Figure 9 2,500 Outstanding External Short-Term Debt as at End of March 2,000 ( US$mn ) 1,500 1,000 500 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
- 40 - Table ( 10 ) Disbursed and Undisbursed Amounts of Contracted Loans as at End of March 2005 (US$mn){1} Contracted Cancelled Net Disbursed Undisbursed Amounts {2} Amounts Commitments Amounts Amounts 1- Medium-and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed Debt 57,486.51 1,905.55 55,580.96 52,146.51 3,434.45 A. Paris Club Bilateral Debt 37,481.40 333.01 37,148.39 36,353.74 794.65 1-May 1991 (Third Stage) 21,959.03 0.00 21,959.03 21,959.03 0.00 2-Non-Guaranteed Debt {2} 2,235.79 33.88 2,201.91 2,201.91 0.00 3-Post Cut-Off Date 13,286.58 299.13 12,987.45 12,192.80 794.65 B. Non- Paris Club Bilateral Debt 3,690.98 69.85 3,621.13 3,331.41 289.72 C. Multilateral Agencies 16,314.13 1,502.69 14,811.44 12,461.36 2,350.08 2- Medium-and Long-Term Private Sector Non-Guaranteed Debt 1,255.52 22.54 1,232.98 1,225.98 7.00 Grand Total 58,742.03 1,928.09 56,813.94 53,372.49 3,441.45 {1} End of period exchange rate. {2} As of 1974. Figure 10 60,000 Disbursed and Undisbursed Amounts of Contracted Loans as at End of March 50,000 ( US$mn ) 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Contracted Amounts Net Commitments Disbursed Amounts
- 41- Table ( 11 ) Medium- and long- Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Service as of April 1, 2005 (US$mn){1} Period Principal {2} Interest ( * ) Total Period Principal {2} Interest Total 2005/1 657.74 94.13 751.87 2028/1 79.92 4.48 84.40 2005/2 899.63 278.21 1177.84 2028/2 94.33 4.97 99.30 2006/1 753.06 279.26 1032.32 2029/1 86.87 3.56 90.43 2006/2(**) 1245.10 273.65 1518.75 2029/2 76.10 3.63 79.73 2007/1(***) 1610.00 258.50 1868.50 2030/1 59.17 2.82 61.99 2007/2 808.25 265.03 1073.28 2030/2 62.79 2.76 65.55 2008/1 812.97 240.74 1053.71 2031/1 53.19 2.33 55.52 2008/2 860.53 238.63 1099.16 2031/2 46.24 2.11 48.35 2009/1 831.30 223.08 1054.38 2032/1 42.95 1.94 44.89 2009/2 860.38 223.12 1083.50 2032/2 41.49 1.78 43.27 2010/1 863.96 219.70 1083.66 2033/1 39.14 1.62 40.76 2010/2 932.58 213.81 1146.39 2033/2 33.97 1.48 35.45 2011/1 892.05 231.47 1123.52 2034/1 33.37 1.35 34.72 2011/2(****) 1333.30 208.80 1542.10 2034/2 26.99 1.23 28.22 2012/1 867.72 186.20 1053.92 2035/1 26.76 1.13 27.89 2012/2 874.10 186.38 1060.48 2035/2 26.11 1.04 27.15 2013/1 885.42 166.83 1052.25 2036/1 41.45 0.94 42.39 2013/2 898.39 168.09 1066.48 2036/2 23.93 0.85 24.78 2014/1 876.48 147.46 1023.94 2037/1 22.95 0.76 23.71 2014/2 915.68 149.91 1065.59 2037/2 22.09 0.68 22.77 2015/1 902.76 130.05 1032.81 2038/1 20.90 0.59 21.49 2015/2 941.83 131.63 1073.46 2038/2 18.45 0.52 18.97 2016/1 936.94 112.56 1049.50 2039/1 14.05 0.45 14.50 2016/2 980.12 113.12 1093.24 2039/2 13.04 0.39 13.43 2017/1 532.04 94.48 626.52 2040/1 11.76 0.34 12.10 2017/2 553.48 96.71 650.19 2040/2 11.32 0.30 11.62 2018/1 534.34 81.54 615.88 2041/1 9.90 0.26 10.16 2018/2 555.56 82.89 638.45 2041/2 9.54 0.22 9.76 2019/1 508.45 68.45 576.90 2042/1 7.75 0.18 7.93 2019/2 540.36 69.40 609.76 2042/2 5.44 0.16 5.60 2020/1 497.14 56.15 553.29 2043/1 5.44 0.14 5.58 2020/2 587.28 56.60 643.88 2043/2 5.09 0.12 5.21 2021/1 481.81 44.32 526.13 2044/1 4.27 0.10 4.37 2021/2 459.25 44.04 503.29 2044/2 4.05 0.08 4.13 2022/1 289.88 33.54 323.42 2045/1 3.10 0.06 3.16 2022/2 310.09 35.20 345.29 2045/2 3.10 0.05 3.15 2023/1 283.18 27.38 310.56 2046/1 3.10 0.04 3.14 2023/2 305.27 28.54 333.81 2046/2 3.02 0.03 3.05 2024/1 277.26 21.65 298.91 2047/1 2.52 0.02 2.54 2024/2 295.51 22.38 317.89 2047/2 0.45 0.01 0.46 2025/1 275.02 16.22 291.24 2048/1 0.45 0.01 0.46 2025/2 296.20 16.32 312.52 2048/2 0.45 0.00 0.45 2026/1 274.55 10.89 285.44 2049/1 0.32 0.00 0.32 2026/2 290.23 10.18 300.41 2049/2 0.32 0.00 0.32 2027/1 84.29 5.45 89.74 2050/1 0.30 0.00 0.30 2027/2 104.52 6.56 111.08 2050/2 0.05 0.00 0.05 Grand Total 31,873.99 5,714.78 37,588.77 {1} The exchange rate of March 31, 2005. {2} Includes assumptions on disbursement of undisbursed portion of contracted loans - see Table (10) for disbursement assumptions. (*) Includes projections for interest on US$ 584.30 million sovereign bonds up to 2011/2. (**) Includes US$ 500 million sovereign bonds. (***)includes US$ 500 million for the Arab International Bank deposit which was included in medium- and long -term external debt. (****) Includes US$ 84.30 million sovereign bonds.