AMO Presentation, London, August 2014 Nik Nanos Chairman Nanos Research Group of Companies Research Associate Professor, State University of New York Global Fellow, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars Washington DC
Politics The economy Views on municipal government Confidential 2
Confidential 3
It s the I can t believe political phenomenon Confidential 5
Pre-writ Risk Debate or debates Who is this election about? Confidential 6
Nanos Provincial Tracking www.nanosresearch.com 7
The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for Ontario is based on a composite of the following public opinion measures: the Ontario ballot, which party individuals would consider voting for, the top two choices for Premier, and whether each party leader has good leadership qualities. Ontario Monthly Index Tracking Scores (period ending July 21 st, 2014, n=501) Contact: Nik Nanos Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237 60 Washington DC: (202) 697-9924 nnanos@nanosresearch.com 50 Download our app to get the latest Nanos Numbers streamed to your iphone. 40 56 57 57 48 46 46 50 48 49 32 32 32 30 20 10 0 Liberal (April-May-July) PC (April-May-July) NDP (April-May-July) Green (April-May-July) www.nanosresearch.com 8
Party Power Index Tracking by Gender www.nanosresearch.com 9
The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for females is based on a composite of the following public opinion measures: the Ontario ballot, which party individuals would consider voting for, the top two choices for Premier, and whether each party leader has good leadership qualities. There are wider margins of 70 accuracy for gender subsamples. Female Monthly Index Tracking Scores (period ending July 21 st, 2014, n=241) Contact: Nik Nanos Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237 Washington DC: (202) 697-9924 nnanos@nanosresearch.com Download our app to get the latest Nanos Numbers streamed to your iphone. 60 50 40 60 58 60 45 41 44 52 48 49 30 32 31 32 20 10 0 Liberal (April-May-July) PC (April-May-July) NDP (April-May-July) Green (April-May-July) www.nanosresearch.com 10
The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for males is based on a composite of the following public opinion measures: the Ontario ballot, which party individuals would consider voting for, the top two choices for Premier, and whether each party leader has good leadership qualities. There are wider margins of accuracy for gender subsamples. Contact: Nik Nanos Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237 Washington DC: (202) 697-9924 nnanos@nanosresearch.com 60 50 Male Monthly Index Tracking Scores (period ending July 21 st, 2014, n=260) 55 55 52 51 51 49 48 48 48 Download our app to get the latest Nanos Numbers streamed to your iphone. 40 32 33 33 30 20 10 0 Liberal (April-May-July) PC (April-May-July) NDP (April-May-July) Green (April-May-July) www.nanosresearch.com 11
Question: Of the current provincial political party leaders, could you please rank your top two current preferences for Premier? [ROTATE PARTY LEADERS] Contact: Nik Nanos Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237 Washington DC: (202) 697-9924 nnanos@nanosresearch.com Download our app to get the latest Nanos Numbers streamed to your iphone. 60 50 40 30 Provincial Monthly Tracking First Ranked Choice (period ending July 21 st, 2014, n=501) 32 34 41 25 24 20 18 16 16 13 10 3 3 5 0 Kathleen Wynne (April-May-July) Jim Wilson/ Tim Hudak (April-May-July) Andrea Horwath (April-May-July) Mike Schreiner (April-May-July) www.nanosresearch.com 12
Question: What is your most important PROVINCIAL issue of concern? Contact: Nik Nanos Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237 Washington DC: (202) 697-9924 nnanos@nanosresearch.com Download our app to get the latest Nanos Numbers streamed to your iphone. Nanos Ontario Issue Tracking (Random telephone survey n=501 Ontarians, July 18 th to July 21 st, 2014) 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 20.4% 16.6% 10% 0% 5.6% 2.4% 9.4% 9.3% 7.2% 2.2% The environment Education Jobs/economy Healthcare Debt/deficit High taxes www.nanosresearch.com 13
Question: For those parties you would consider voting for PROVINCIALLY, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? Contact: Nik Nanos Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237 Washington DC: (202) 697-9924 nnanos@nanosresearch.com 60% 50% Nanos Ontario Ballot Tracking First Ranked Choice, Decided Voters Only (Random telephone survey n=454 Ontarians, July 18 th to July 21 st, 2014) Election 46.0% Election Election Election Download our app to get the latest Nanos Numbers streamed to your iphone. 40% 30% 35.0% 42.0% 31.0% 38.1% 34.7% 43.2% 28.8% 24.3% 20% 17.0% 20.2% 15.0% 10% 0% 3.0% 8.0% 2.7% 7.3% Green NDP Liberal PC www.nanosresearch.com 14
Question: For each of the following provincial political parties, please tell me if you would consider or not consider voting for it. [RANDOMIZE] Contact: Nik Nanos Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237 Washington DC: (202) 697-9924 nnanos@nanosresearch.com Download our app to get the latest Nanos Numbers streamed to your iphone. 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Provincial Monthly Tracking (period ending July 21 st, 2014, n=501) 54% 55% 52% 44% 40% 40% 41% 37% 47% 30% 22% 33% 10% 0% Liberal (April-May-July) PC (April-May-July) NDP (April-May-July) Green (April-May-July) www.nanosresearch.com 15
2014 Ontario Election Nanos Election Poll May 22 to May 26, 2014 Election Results June 12, 2014 Number of interviews (Aggregate) 430 37.7% 38.6% 31.2% 31.1% 23.7% 23.7% 5.3% 4.8% Margin of error ± 4.8 16
Relativity Politicians do not compete against perfection but against each other Think in terms of risk & consistency 17
Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index (BNCCI) submitted by Nanos, August 1 st,, 2014 (Project 2013-284)
The BNCCI is a diffusion index comprised of the views of 1,000 Canadians. A score of 50 on the diffusion index indicates that positive and negative views are a wash while scores above or below 50 suggest net positive or net negative views in terms of the economic mood of Canadians. The data is based on perceptions related to personal finances, job security, economic strength, and real estate value. 70 65 60 55 52 Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index (Weekly Completed August 1 st, 2014) 2014-08-01 59 50 45 40 Dec 2009-63 35 30 19
Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Consumer Confidence Index Data Summary for August 1 st, 2014 BNCCI This week 58.95 Last week 59.75 2014 high 60.60 July 18 2014 low 56.00 Feb 07 2014 average 58.87 2008 average 49.21 Worst full year 2010 average 59.13 Best full year Dec 31, 2008 43.28 Record low Dec 31, 2009 62.92 Record high Overall index average 57.10 Real Estate 44 vs 37 Individual Measures: Positive ratings This week Last week Average 2014 Average 2008-2014 Personal finances 18.35 18.64 19.48 19.36 Canadian economy 17.83 21.21 21.52 22.83 Job security 67.54 67.91 66.71 64.95 Real estate 43.90 44.36 40.38 36.53 Full Ratings Better off Worse off No change Don't know Personal finances 18.35 23.53 57.35 0.76 Stronger Weaker No change Don't know Canadian Economy 17.83 16.35 59.36 6.46 Somewhat not Secure Somewhat secure secure Not secure Don't know Job security 46.59 20.95 5.83 6.79 19.84 Increase Stay the same Decrease Don't know Real estate 43.90 41.39 13.11 1.60 20
Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Consumer Confidence Index Data Summary for August 1 st, 2014 Ontario 59 vs 66 Canada This Week Last Week 4 Weeks Ago 3 Months Ago 1 Year Ago (Aug) 12 Month High 12 Month 12 Month Low Average Economic Mood 58.95 59.75 59.87 59.62 58.89 60.60 56.00 58.67 Pocketbook Index 59.84 60.23 60.02 59.30 60.48 62.11 58.29 59.95 Expectations Index 58.06 59.27 59.72 59.95 57.31 60.69 53.48 57.39 Economic Mood by Demographic Region Atlantic 54.19 55.45 58.53 52.44 54.06 58.68 50.66 54.02 Quebec 56.40 56.20 56.53 57.21 56.76 59.15 53.59 56.46 Ontario 58.58 60.49 59.68 60.38 58.63 61.76 54.50 58.72 Prairies 66.22 67.85 66.53 66.14 63.65 68.46 61.00 64.31 British Columbia 57.39 56.23 57.81 58.20 59.81 62.71 53.90 57.83 Age 18 to 29 61.24 64.93 66.96 62.99 62.50 66.96 57.68 62.53 30 to 39 58.48 59.35 59.12 60.65 63.09 64.00 55.22 60.30 40 to 49 60.15 60.73 58.44 60.08 57.57 61.81 55.95 58.28 50 to 59 57.34 55.94 57.72 57.01 56.15 58.93 53.30 56.34 60 plus 57.47 57.55 57.16 57.54 56.00 58.07 53.82 56.28 Income Home $0 to $14,999 48.22 49.84 51.06 48.62 54.03 57.19 40.92 48.50 $15,000 to $29,999 48.98 50.10 51.80 55.27 51.44 57.75 45.72 52.55 $30,000 to $44,999 56.27 56.16 57.37 54.95 54.85 59.23 51.24 55.26 $45,000 to $59,999 56.62 57.11 57.39 58.08 59.03 60.30 52.18 57.21 $60,000 to $74,999 60.92 61.26 59.73 61.01 57.46 63.21 55.71 59.74 $75,000 or more 62.72 63.63 63.94 63.54 62.41 65.58 60.41 62.75 Own 59.92 60.75 60.15 59.50 59.04 61.42 56.62 58.72 Rent 54.06 54.31 58.67 59.36 59.03 61.98 53.88 58.32 21
Confidential 22
Biggest Problem in Your Municipality Source: Nanos Research, RDD dual frame random telephone survey in Ontario, July 18 to 21, 2014, n=501, accurate 4.4 percentage points plus or minus, 19 times out of 20. Problem Frequency (n=501) Infrastructure/ Transportation 25 Infrastructure/Transportation 25.3% Finding jobs/unemployment 16.7% Taxes 8.1% Budget/Funding/Economy 5.7% Healthcare 5.4% Politics/Council/Mayor 5.3% Ways of powering electricity/environmental issues 4.7% Social services/programs 2.7% Housing 1.8% Education 1.3% Electricity rates/gas prices 0.6% Other 6.5% I don t know 15.8% QUESTION What is the biggest problem facing your municipality? [Open-ended] On an unprompted basis, the most mentioned problem for Ontarians is related to infrastructure/ transportation (25.3%) followed by finding jobs/ unemployment (16.7%). Taxes is mentioned by less than one in ten (8.1%) but another 5.7% mention the budget/ funding/ economy. Confidential 23
Responsive to Needs Source: Nanos Research, RDD dual frame random telephone survey in Ontario, July 18 to 21, 2014, n=501, accurate 4.4 percentage points plus or minus, 19 times out of 20. Municipal Not sure 16% Federal government 13% Subgroups Municipal Government GTA (n=250) 41.3% Rest of Ontario (n=251) 32.1% 37 Urban (n=427) 37.5% Rural (n=74) 32.3% Male (n=260) 35.7% Female (n=241) 37.8% Municipal government 37% Provincial government 34% *Note: Charts may not add up to 100 due to rounding 18 to 29 (n=103) 26.1% 30 to 39 (n=89) 28.6% 40 to 49 (n=106) 47.7% 50 to 59 (n=86) 43.5% 60 plus (n=117) 37.1% QUESTION What level of government is most responsive to your needs? Is it the [Randomize] Overall, municipal governments (36.7%) are slightly more likely than the provincial government (34.0%) to be considered the most responsive to citizen needs. In the GTA and among older people, the municipality is more likely to be considered the most responsive. Confidential 24
Investment Priorities Source: Nanos Research, RDD dual frame random telephone survey in Ontario, July 18 to 21, 2014, n=501, accurate 4.4 percentage points plus or minus, 19 times out of 20. Priorities First-ranked priority (n=501) Second-ranked priority (n=383) Infrastructure/ Transportation 39 Infrastructure/Transportation 38.9% 27.6% Healthcare 7.6% 10.7% Social services/programs 7.0% 15.1% Education 6.7% 12.3% Finding jobs/ Unemployment 5.2% 5.6% Budget/Funding/Economy 3.0% 4.2% Housing 1.5% 2.6% Taxes 1.3% 1.2% Ways of powering electricity/environmental issues 1.1% 1.1% Politics/Council/Mayor 0.7% 1.1% Electricity rates/gas prices 0.1% 0.2% Other 3.3% 3.0% I don t know 23.6% 15.2% QUESTION What should be the first and second priorities for investing municipal property tax revenue in your community? [Open-ended] Given it is the area most mentioned as a problem, it is not surprising that 38.9% mention infrastructure/ transportation as their first priority for investing municipal property tax revenue. Although healthcare (7.6%), social services (7.0%) and education (6.7%) are next most mentioned areas, 23.6% are not sure what is their first priority. Of those who had a second priority, the most mentioned were infrastructure (27.6%) and social services (15.1%). Confidential 25
Funding Low Income Housing Source: Nanos Research, RDD dual frame random telephone survey in Ontario, July 18 to 21, 2014, n=501, accurate 4.4 percentage points plus or minus, 19 times out of 20. Province 37 Municipal governments 15% Not sure 20% The Provincial government 37% The Federal government 29% *Note: Charts may not add up to 100 due to rounding Subgroups The provincial government GTA (n=250) 41.2% Rest of Ontario (n=251) 32.3% Urban (n=427) 36.5% Rural (n=74) 37.9% Male (n=260) 37.2% Female (n=241) 36.2% 18 to 29 (n=103) 30.4% 30 to 39 (n=89) 46.4% 40 to 49 (n=106) 31.8% 50 to 59 (n=86) 32.8% 60 plus (n=117) 42.3% QUESTION Who should be primarily responsible for providing the funding to build and maintain housing for low income earners and homeless people? Ontarians are the most likely to identify the provincial government (36.7%) as the level of government who should be primarily responsible for providing low income housing. Only 15.1% mention municipalities. Residents of the GTA are more likely to mention the provincial government. Confidential 26
Raising Property Taxes Source: Nanos Research, RDD dual frame random telephone survey in Ontario, July 18 to 21, 2014, n=501, accurate 4.4 percentage points plus or minus, 19 times out of 20. Better local transportation (roads, bridges, transit, bike lanes) 48% 21% 3% 25% 3% +41.2 More housing opportunities for homeless people and low income earners 46% 19% 8% 22% 5% +35.6 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Support Somewhat Support Somewhat Oppose Oppose Not sure *Note: Charts may not add up to 100 due to rounding QUESTION Do you support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or oppose raising property taxes for any of the following: [Randomize] When it comes to raising property taxes, there is considerable support for better local transportation (68.9% support or somewhat support) and more housing opportunities for homeless and low income people (65.1%). Although more supportive than opposed, fewer support better recreation or more daycare spaces. Confidential 27
Raising Property Taxes Source: Nanos Research, RDD dual frame random telephone survey in Ontario, July 18 to 21, 2014, n=501, accurate 4.4 percentage points plus or minus, 19 times out of 20. Better parks and recreation services 37% 22% 6% 31% 4% +22.4 More day care spaces for children 36% 17% 8% 33% 6% +10.9 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Support Somewhat Support Somewhat Oppose Oppose Not sure *Note: Charts may not add up to 100 due to rounding QUESTION Do you support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or oppose raising property taxes for any of the following: [Randomize] When it comes to raising property taxes, there is considerable support for better local transportation (68.9% support or somewhat support) and more housing opportunities for homeless and low income people (65.1%). Although more supportive than opposed, fewer support better recreation or more daycare spaces. Confidential 28
Full-Time and On-Call Firefighters Source: Nanos Research, RDD dual frame random telephone survey in Ontario, July 18 to 21, 2014, n=501, accurate 4.4 percentage points plus or minus, 19 times out of 20. +85.6 Somewhat Disagree 1% Somewhat Agree 12% Not sure Disagree 3% 5% Agree 79% *Note: Charts may not add up to 100 due to rounding Subgroups Agree/ Somewhat Agree GTA (n=250) 90.8% Rest of Ontario (n=251) 92.2% Urban (n=427) 91.0% Rural (n=74) 94.6% Male (n=260) 89.3% Female (n=241) 94.0% 18 to 29 (n=103) 93.5% 30 to 39 (n=89) 91.1% 40 to 49 (n=106) 93.6% 50 to 59 (n=86) 91.3% 60 plus (n=117) 88.3% QUESTION Please tell me if you agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or disagree with the following statement. Professional, full time city firefighters should be able to serve as on-call volunteer firefighters in smaller and rural communities where they live if they wish. There is significant support (79.3% agree and 12.2% somewhat agree) that full-time firefighters should be able to serve as volunteer firefighters in the smaller communities in which they live. Support is strong across demographic groups. Confidential 29
62 About Right 24% Smaller Share 5% Municipal Tax Share Source: Nanos Research, RDD dual frame random telephone survey in Ontario, July 18 to 21, 2014, n=501, accurate 4.4 percentage points plus or minus, 19 times out of 20. Greater Share Not Sure 9% Greater Share 62% *Note: Charts may not add up to 100 due to rounding Subgroups Greater Share GTA (n=250) 64.8% Rest of Ontario (n=251) 59.3% Urban (n=427) 64.8% Rural (n=74) 45.9% Male (n=260) 59.5% Female (n=241) 64.8% 18 to 29 (n=103) 43.5% 30 to 39 (n=89) 70.3% 40 to 49 (n=106) 57.3% 50 to 59 (n=86) 71.8% 60 plus (n=117) 69.1% QUESTION When it comes to the collection of taxes in Canada, the federal government collects 51 per cent of every household tax dollar, the provincial government collects about 40 per cent and municipalities collect 9 per cent. Do you think municipal governments should receive a greater share of the taxes, a smaller share or is the current amount just right? A majority (62.0%) think that municipalities should receive a greater share of tax dollars and only 4.6% think they should get less. Those living in rural locations and younger people are less likely to think municipalities should get a greater share. 30 Confidential
Fire and Police Personnel Wages and Benefits Source: Nanos Research, RDD dual frame random telephone survey in Ontario, July 18 to 21, 2014, n=501, accurate 4.4 percentage points plus or minus, 19 times out of 20. 59 Non- Sector Freezing the wages and benefits of police and fire personnel 27% Not sure 10% Having the same wage and benefit increases as other employees of the same municipality 32% Having a rate of increase the same as other police and fire personnel across the province they work in, regardless of the size of the community 31% *Note: Charts may not add up to 100 due to rounding 31 Sector QUESTION More and more, Ontario s fire and police personnel are earning more than $100,000 per year in wages and benefits. Knowing this, which of one of the following options do you think is the most appropriate for the wages and benefits of fire and police personnel in a municipality. Ontarians are almost equally divided about the appropriate basis for determining the appropriate wages and benefits of fire and police personnel. Having the same wages increases as other employees of the municipality is mentioned by 32.2% and using the same rate as other police and fire is mentioned by 30.5%. Notably, 27.1% would freeze their salaries. Confidential 31
Municipal Garbage and Waste Source: Nanos Research, RDD dual frame random telephone survey in Ontario, July 18 to 21, 2014, n=501, accurate 4.4 percentage points plus or minus, 19 times out of 20. People who produce more waste should pay more taxes or fees than those who produce less. 57% 12% 6% 21% 3% +41.3 People who pay more in property taxes should be able to put more garbage out because their higher taxes include fees for garbage collection and waste management. 24% 11% 8% 53% 4% -26.3 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Disagree Not sure *Note: Charts may not add up to 100 due to rounding QUESTION As you may know, municipalities charge taxes for garbage collection and waste management. Do you agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or disagree with the following statements. Ontarians generally believe that those who produce more waste should pay more (56.7% agree and 12.3% somewhat agree) but they do not endorse the view that people who pay more property tax should be able to put out more (23.9% agree and 10.8% somewhat agree). Confidential 32
Some closing thoughts Confidential 33
Real estate fueled confidence Confidential 34
Political strength or opposition weakness? Best before date? Confidential 35
Municipalities have muscle Levels of government federal provincial territorial - municipal Confidential 36
Touch points in our daily lives transit, roads, daycare, public safety, parks, recreation, and on and on and on Confidential 37
Municipalities have political muscle Confidential 38
Methodology The survey was commissioned by the Association of Municipalities of Ontario. This random telephone survey of 500 Ontarians was conducted between July 18 th and 21 st, 2014 as part of an Ontario omnibus survey by Nanos Research. The dual frame sample included both land- and cell-lines across Ontario. The results were statistically checked and weighted by age and gender using the latest Census information and the sample is geographically stratified to be representative of Ontario. Individuals randomly called using random digit dialling with a maximum of five call backs. The margin of error for a random survey of 500 Ontarians is ±4.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Note: Charts may not add up to 100 due to rounding. Confidential 39