Contents MARKET OUTLOOK 3 Foreword 4 Growth in Europe value for investors 6 Invitation for investors diversiication & stability 12 The rise of the European markets deals & pricing 14 European oice market map overview 217 REGIONAL MARKETS 16 Baltics 17 Belgium 18 Denmark 19 Finland 2 France 21 Germany 22 Luxembourg 23 Netherlands 24 Norway 25 Poland 27 Spain 28 Sweden 3 United Kingdom OTHER 31 Contacts research Deinitions and Sources Prime yields The yield for a property of the highest quality speciication in a prime location within the area. The property should be 1 let at the market rent at the time, to blue-chip tenants, with leasing term typical for prime property within that market. The yield should relect net income received by an investor, expressed as a percentage of total capital value. Stock Total volume of existing oice loorspace in net sq m. of a deined location/area. Oice loorspace includes completed, let and vacant oice buildings/spaces. Prime rent Prime rent represents the top open-market rent that can be achieved for a notional oice unit (sq m.) per month. The unit itself has to feature highest quality and is to be situated in the best location of the local market. Sources The main sources are Catella local branches and the inhouse research team. Additional sources are indicated where used. 2 CATELLA MARKET INDICATOR EUROPE SPRING 217
Europe a powerful investment spectrum DEAR READERS, Europe and its real estate markets are changing not just due to the efects of the Brexit decision, but also, and indeed primarily, because of the exceptionally positive prospects for the coming years: In terms of economic policy and performance, the future currently looks bright for European companies from the manufacturing industry to the services sector. However, this melange should also be looked at in more detail: On the one hand, there have been positive rental trends, an overall increase in the rental volume and a large number of transactions in recent months in the oice segment. hese trends are also partly due to a situation which we have rarely seen to such an extent before. Hardly any new projects have been initiated. As is widely known, supply shortages and rising demand lead to price increases. he number of exclusive oice developments is low throughout Europe. However, high rents in existing properties caused by supply shortages in the local market are rarely economically sustainable. Although the oice segment will consequently continue to be regarded as the number one investment vehicle in investors portfolios, the yield compression in existing space and the increasing supply shortages are prompting investors to turn their attention to project developments. hroughout Europe, the demand is there; however, lenders and investors are hesitant about getting involved in oice developments, with their cyclical reputation, in what appears to be a very positive market environment. In the new-build segment, and even more so in the refurbishment segment, the market situation is changing in many countries: Co-working models, evolving oice work practices, digitalisation and pay-per-use concepts are likely to prompt faster rather than slower changes in what is required of oice concepts in the coming years. he new requirements are still sporadic, but current observations provide a good indication of how the future will be. While there may be signiicant changes in oice concepts, this will have no efect on the importance of location as a factor for oice real estate. In this regard, a sustainable location primarily means CBD areas and as can be seen throughout Europe areas close to transport facilities such as train stations, urban rail interchanges and airports. It nearly seems as if the capital market is already anticipating these trends. he majority of major European project developments are almost entirely for mixed use. Oice space, but only in combination with retail and/or residential use. Our analysis of 32 oice locations in Europe identiied these trends in the clear majority of cases. So, if we can ascertain rising rents in 19 out of 32 locations in other words, 19 locations where yields are declining the markets are in a very strong position purely from a market perspective. Vacancy rates are continuing to fall, and rents are increasing across the board. In terms of the transaction volume, we have just seen an historic development: For the irst time, Germany has knocked the UK of its traditional top spot, with France following in third place. he Nordics are also performing extraordinarily well at present, in particular Sweden and Finland. In southern Europe, Spain recently recorded its best ever quarter. It is due to this extremely positive situation in Europe s real estate markets that oice real estate remains the top preference for investors. Depending on the level of risk appetite, the investment range in 217 stretches from London s West End to at least in theory Moscow. We hope you enjoy reading this issue! Thomas Beyerle Head of Group Research Catella Providing high-end market analysis Catella is a leading specialist in property advisory services, property investments, fund management and banking, with operations in 12 European countries. The group has sales of approximately SEK 2 billion and manages assets of approximately SEK 15 billion. Catella is listed on Nasdaq Stockholm in the Mid Cap segment. Catella provides high-end market analysis products and services for the property market. We use our perspectives from the inancial markets and experience from investment banking to create truly forward-looking research. Read more at catella.com CATELLA MARKET INDICATOR EUROPE SPRING 217 3
Growth in Europe value for investors Europe macroeconomic conditions for real estate investment With phrases such as Brexit, Italian banking crisis or Greece s debt dilemma on everyone s lips, it is safe to say that the conditions for investing in European markets have been better. But when reading the headlines, the important things are oten lost. Nevertheless, Europe s economy is growing, and continuously at that. Average predicted growth in GDP for the coming ive years is forecast at 1.5, with 1.8 growth expected for this year. While the up-and-coming nations of Brazil and Russia are currently in diiculty, the USA has returned to a trajectory of stable growth. However, US economic growth could easily run into trouble if the Trump government is able to put the ideas for a protectionist economic policy into practice. Every economics student who has heard a lecture on the Ricardian model, David Ricardo s study of the comparative cost advantages in foreign trade, knows that trade impediments in the form of customs levies ultimately have a negative impact on all market participants. A stronger focus on the Asian countries, especially China, can be expected in this case. Within Europe, the performance of diferent countries reveals considerable disparities: while Russia, Greece, Norway and Italy have registered growth of under 1, the economies of Spain and Ireland are currently recovering strongly. Along with Sweden and Luxembourg, the rate of growth in those two countries is currently above 3. Above-average growth is also evident in the Netherlands, Germany, the UK, Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary. Unemployment in Europe has been falling constantly since 213, and according to estimates, it will reach a rate of almost 8.1 in 222. he igure for the USA outperforms this level by coming in at just over 5. here are signiicant diferences between national rates of unemployment across Europe as well. In Germany, just 4.2 of people of working age are currently out of work, while Denmark is currently experiencing something close to full employment with an unemployment rate of 3.9 (due to economic luctuations, there is, in practice, always a base level of around 3). In Spain, however, many people are still registered as out of work despite the recent annual declines in unemployment. In the past three years, the igure has gone from over 26 to the present level of 19.9, and observers expect this number to fall further in the coming decade to ultimately dip below the 1 mark. Europe s population is on a similar trajectory: in the immediate term, migration will provide a temporary boost, but in the long run, Europe is ageing. Against this backdrop, it is necessary to take a close look at the continent s diferent regions, as the current urbanisation trend is not a uniform development everywhere. he ECB continues to keep the main reinancing rate at zero, and it has resorted to some unconventional monetary policy instruments in its ight against low inlation and the economic weaknesses of some eurozone countries. Its multi-billion government bond-buying programme (quantitative easing) has seen it support the markets with money since the start of 215, and it plans to stick to this strategy until the end of 217 at least. It is a policy that not only poses a threat to the retirement provisions made by consumers, but a negative interest rate for deposits also has the efect of a special tax on Europe s businesses. At the same time, doubts are growing about the beneits of expansionary monetary policies. In the normal scheme of things, falling yields for risk-free investments spur a higher level of consumption and rising inlation. However, this is not what is currently happening in Europe. Instead, several GROWTH RATE OF GDP* Source: Oxford Economics, IMF UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN EUROPE AND IN THE USA* Source: Oxford Economics, IMF 15 12 12 9 6 1 8 3-3 -6 6 4 2-9 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 221 222 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 216 218 22 222 GDP growth Brazil (y/y, ) GDP growth China (y/y, ) GDP growth India (y/y, ) GDP growth Russia (y/y, ) GDP growth USA (y/y, ) GDP growth Europe (y/y, ) USA Europe * estimates after 216 * estimates after 216 4 CATELLA MARKET INDICATOR EUROPE SPRING 217
Investment matrix Forecast 217 221 Source: Property Market Analysis (PMA) 5 4 Berlin Expected average rental change (217 221) 3 2 1 Frankfurt Copenhagen Madrid Stockholm Barcelona Helsinki Rome Vienna Munich Milan Paris Dusseldorf Edinburgh Hamburg Lisbon Moscow Prague Oslo Luxembourg Cologne Rotterdam Birmingham Brussels Stuttgart Budapest Glasgow Dublin Warsaw Lille Amsterdam Lyon Manchester Marseille -1 London -2 2 4 6 8 1 12 Standardised sharpe ratio Note: the size of a bubble reflects the market size of a specific location. Nordics Continental Europe UK/Ireland Applying a buy and hold strategy view of the selected elements, we recommend against investing in London s oice property sector. hough the Sharpe ratio is in the lower mid-range, we expect top-end real estate to return, on average, negative growth rates for rent in the future. Leaving this assessment of the opportunities aside, the conventional yield-torisk proile proves its value in the form of a μ-σ calculation. Catella Research has augmented the comparison of expected yields and volatility by incorporating the beta risk factor (beta factor/β factor). he beta factor indicates the link between the yield development of one location and the overall market. If higher than 1, this means that an investment in a speciic market displays greater volatility than the market as a whole. If equal to 1, the level of volatility in the market is exactly the same as the volatility of the larger market, while a factor below 1 means that the market in question is less volatile than the aggregate market. According to the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), a high beta factor is relected in a high yield and, conversely, a low factor is relected in a low yield. 8 CATELLA MARKET INDICATOR EUROPE SPRING 217
Risk-Return Profile 217 Source: Catella Research, Property Market Analysis (PMA) 2 Madrid Dublin 15 Barcelona Munich Total Return (217) in 1 5 Cologne Dusseldorf Prague Berlin Frankfurt Paris CBD Stockholm Rotterdam Marseille Paris Central Paris La Défence Amsterdam Hamburg Brussels Lille European Portfolio* Budapest Paris Western Business District Stuttgart Rome Luxembourg Lyon Vienna Helsinki Milan Birmingham Glasgow Edinburgh Manchester London M25 West Note: the size of a bubble reflects the beta risk of a specific location. Nordics Continental Europe UK/Ireland European Portfolio: average ideal Portfolio Copenhagen Lisbon Warsaw Oslo London Docklands London Central London City London West End and Midtown -5 5 1 15 2 25 Volatility in he size of the bubbles in the chart corresponds to the beta factor: the larger the bubble, the higher the given market s underlying beta factor. Dublin, Moscow, Barcelona and Madrid are relatively risky markets. However, the investment risk derived from the beta risk in the four markets is made up for by the commensurately high yields expected for 217. Direct investment in Dublin s oice property market can generate a top total return of 15.8, a igure surpassed only by Madrid s 18.7. In contrast, there are no high yields to compensate for the beta risks values of Paris and London. Investment managers overseeing large real estate portfolios should not make their decisions solely on the base of a speciic investment option s favourable yield and risk factors. CATELLA MARKET INDICATOR EUROPE SPRING 217 9
Almost a quarter of the year s property transactions involved real estate in the country. he German market leading the way with 27, followed by the UK with 25.5, with France in third place at almost 14. To conclude this study, we would like to take a closer look at the cohort of foreign investors. Many of them are from the USA, and they have invested an average of EUR 17.8 billion in the European oice property sector over the past three years. US-based investor Blackstone deserves to be mentioned in this context: the company has acquired assets in the segment worth EUR 6.6 billion in the last two years alone. Another visible trend is how an evergrowing number of investors from Arab and Asian states are moving into the European oice market. Investors from South Korea, Qatar, China and Hong Kong were responsible for purchases amounting to EUR 9 billion in Europe in 216 and EUR 1.3 billion in Q1 217. Turning to European investors, it is apparent that the Swiss are particularly fond of acquiring properties outside of their own borders, having invested EUR 8 billion in the last three years alone. CROSS BORDER ANALYSIS IN THE OFFICE SEGMENT 25 2 15 1 5 27 28 29 21 211 212 USA Canada South Korea Germany France Qatar United Kingdom Switzerland China MOST ACTIVE COUNTRIES BY OFFICE VOLUME Q1 217 Others* 2.9 Finland 1.6 Belgium 1.8 Denmark 2.2 Netherlands 5. Spain 6.1 Norway 6.6 Sweden 7.2 France 13.9 *Poland, Baltics, Luxembourg 213 Source: Real Capital Analytics (RCA) 214 215 216 Hong Kong Source: Catella Research, PMA Germany 27.2 United Kingdom 25.2 BUYER COMPOSITION IN THE EUROPEAN OFFICE MARKET Source: Real Capital Analytics (RCA) 12 1 8 6 4 2 3 2 3 6 2 15 12 11 14 6 1 1 1 28 24 22 23 213 214 215 216 217 8 7 18 47 52 54 48 66 Cross-Border Institutional REIT/Listed Private User/Other PRICING ANALYSIS* Bottom Bottom 25 Median Top 25 Top 13.1 6.7 5.5 4.5 2. * Yield at acquisition: quartile (data based on past 12 months) Source: Real Capital Analytics (RCA) CATELLA MARKET INDICATOR EUROPE SPRING 217 13
EUR.29 bn FINLAND OULU TAMPERE WARSAW TURKU TALLINN RIGA 4.9 6.75 2. 2. 886, LAHTI HELSINKI ESTONIA LATVIA LITHUANIA VILNIUS 4,985,463 7.5 2. 616,4 EUR.15 bn 4.5 33. 8,633, 6.5 17. 57, 7.5 19. 268,8 7.25 19. 828,3 6.2 18. 638, 6.8 17. 76, Prime yields 33 locations 31 11 14 19 17 Prime rents 33 locations 19 18 12 17 21 Oice transaction volume Due to high demand for prime assets, the yields in most European locations are forecast to decrease further. In addition to this, the yield gap between prime and secondary is expected to narrow. Limited class-a stock and a lagging development pipeline in prime locations are the main reasons for growing or stable prime rents in the mediumterm. Decreasing prime rents in London, due to ongoing BREXIT uncertainty. Source: Catella Research 217, PMA Oice transaction volume per country in EUR billion Q1 217 Q1 216 change compared to Q1 216* 216 Spain 1.1.51 116 5.91 France 2.5 1.32 89 19.12 Baltics.15.1 5.48 Norway 1.19.84 41 2.88 Germany 4.9 4. 22 22.1 Sweden 1.3 1.9 2 5.43 Netherlands.9.93-3 5.9 Belgium.32.36-11 1.78 Luxembourg.12.16-26.99 Finland.29.39-27 1.64 Denmark.39.57-31 2.17 United Kingdom 4.6 8.3-45 22.3 Poland.26.54-52 1.88 * Percent change may not be accurate, due to roundings EUR 1.3 bn Oice Transaction volume per country in EUR billion, Q1 217 Prime oice yield, net Prime oice rent, EUR/sq m. per month Oice stock Forecast 6 months CATELLA MARKET INDICATOR EUROPE SPRING 217 15
Belgium Prime yield at historically low level GROWTH RATES OF PRIME RENT 3.5 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 1..5. Brussels 2-28 29-216 217-22 LOCATION KEY FACTS AS OF Q1 217 City Oice stock, sq m. Oice trans action volume, mn EUR THE BELGIAN ECONOMY grew by an annualised 1.1 in Q4 216, just below the overall growth rate of 1.2 last year. Domestic demand and net exports both contributed notably to GDP growth, while changes in inventories were a drag on growth. Consumer prices rose by 1.8 in 216, compared to.6 in 215 and.2 in the euro area at large. hey are forecast to rise by 2 in 217 and by 1.8 in 218. Belgium s economy is expected to grow by approximately 1.5 in 217 and 218. Domestic demand is projected to strengthen gradually, leading to a diminishing contribution to growth from net trade. Unemployment is forecast to continue decreasing steadily, falling to 7.6 in 218. Inlation is set to hit 2 in 217 and 1.8 in 218. Risks to the outlook are mainly external. In particular, any potential shit to a less trade-friendly global environment would have negative repercussions for the export sector. Belgium has tight trade links with the UK. Ater strong performances in 216, oice investment volumes witnessed a slow start to the year in Q1, with EUR 138 million invested in Brussels oice properties. Compared to the same period in 216 this is a decrease of 59. Nevertheless, appetite, especially from domestic investors, is still strong and healthy as the economic environment is forecast to remain attractive this year. he largest transaction was the acquisition of IT Tower for approx. EUR 76 million by AG Real Estate. However, foreign investors didn t take place on the Brussel market OFFICE TRANSACTION VOLUME In EUR million 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 Brussels Prime rent p. m., EUR/sq m. Prime yield, 214 215 216 Q1 217 Vacancy rate, Brussels 13,392,4 137.6 18.75 4.65 9. Forecast 6 months TOTAL OFFICE STOCK IN PROPORTION TO TOTAL VACANCY Brussels so far. he prime yield decreased further during the past 12 months to a current low of 4.65 for Brussels and could even witness a slight further compression during 217. In Brussels, the take-up is around 8,2 sq m. in Q1, mainly helped by a 22, sq m. pre-letting of Beobank. We expect a relatively strong decrease of activity in 217, take-up should stand at around 35, sq m. for the whole year. he vacancy rate recorded further decrease in Q1 and stands at around 9.2. However, this should increase during the year, despite the limited speculative supply awaited. he prime rental levels continue their upward movement in the Periphery (in the Airport district) to reach EUR 15.4/sq m./month. Recovery will be led by speculative deliveries following strong consistent demand for new spaces. 217 is set to be a pivotal year for Belgium. Political uncertainties in Europe, increasing volatility and slightly growing interest rates will contribute to slightly decrease the attractiveness of the investment market in the coming years. As a result, investors will be more selective in their acquisitions, mainly focusing on core assets. Conversely, activity is forecast to decrease on the letting market in 217. Prime rents will globally remain stable, though core locations will continue to see slightly upward pressure on rents due to limited supply. CATELLA MARKET INDICATOR EUROPE SPRING 217 17
Poland Landlords ofering good incentives TOTAL OFFICE STOCK IN PROPORTION TO TOTAL VACANCY INVESTMENT IS ESTIMATED to have contracted by 5.5 in 216, limiting GDP growth to 2.8. he apparent volatility through weak investment appears to be mainly related to the slow progress of projects inanced by EU structural funds under the new programming period and increased policy and regulatory uncertainty. Private consumption, by contrast, expanded strongly (by 3.6) providing the main growth driver. Solid real wage increases and rising employment, as well as increased social transfers, explain the continued strength of private consumption. On the downside, a prolongation of policy and regulatory uncertainty may weigh on investment and eventually also private consumption more strongly than currently foreseen. Labour supply could become a growth barrier in some sectors. On the upside, public and private investment could accelerate faster than currently projected. he economy is expected to gather momentum in 217 and 218 as investment gradually recovers from a substantial contraction in 216. Private consumption is set to remain the main growth driver, and the labour market is expected to tighten further. Investment sentiment in the Polish oice sector remains solid with over EUR 26 million volume transacted in Q1 217. With a share of approx. 39, Warsaw is the main target for oice properties among the country. But demand is also shiting towards secondary locations e.g. Wroclaw, Krakow, Poznan. A notable deal was the acquisition of an oice building in Poznan by Union Investment for EUR 62. million as well as the West Link building in Wroclaw for EUR 36. million purchased by Griin Real Estate. With signiicant supply of ready to- buy assets and a number of investors willing to commit capital, the volume of investment in 217 is expected to reach last year s levels of approx. EUR 1.8 billion. Prime yields in Warsaw and regions are going to remain stable with slightly potential for downward pressure as a number of investors actively seek for core products. Due to strong development pipeline, investors are going to focus on forward-deals. he Polish oice market continued to prosper in Q1, fueled mainly by the business services sector. Warsaw continued to see strong take-up levels, in line with trend levels of activity noted in the comparable period in 216, with 16, sq m. in Q1 217. Growing space availability in Warsaw alongside downward pressure on prime rents prompts tenants to move to well-located properties, which now ofer lower costs and favourable lease terms. he irst quarter of 217 recorded the delivery of a large number of projects including Business Garden Phases 3 7 (54,8 sq m.) and EQlibrium GROWTH RATES OF PRIME RENT 25 2 15 1 5-5 -1 Warsaw 2-28 29-216 217-22 LOCATION KEY FACTS AS OF Q1 217 City Oice stock, sq m. Oice trans action volume, mn EUR (9,9 sq m.) with a number of projects under construction and being in the pipeline. Compared to the same period last year prime rents in Warsaw s CBD decreased by EUR.5/sq m./month, and now stands at EUR 2./sq m./month. his is due to a still relatively high vacancy rate of 14.9 and high number of speculative developments. Landlords have to aford lexible lease teams and attractive incentives to push occupier demand. OFFICE TRANSACTION VOLUME In EUR million 2, 1,5 1, 5 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 Warsaw Prime rent p. m., EUR/sq m. Prime yield, 215 216 Q1 217 Vacancy rate, Warsaw 4,985,46 12. 2. 4.9 14.9 Forecast 6 months Warsaw CATELLA MARKET INDICATOR EUROPE SPRING 217 25