CREDIT OPINION 1 September 17 Raiffeisen Bank SA Raiffeisen Bank SA: semiannual update Update Summary RATINGS Raiffeisen Bank SA Domicile Bucharest, Romania Long Term Debt Withdrawn Type Senior Unsecured Dom Curr Rating(s) WithDrawn Long Term Deposit Baa Type LT Bank Deposits - Fgn Curr Stable Please see the ratings section at the end of this report for more information. The ratings and outlook shown reflect information as of the publication date. Raiffeisen Bank SA's (Raiffeisen) Baa/Prime- deposit ratings incorporate: (1) the bank s standalone baseline credit assessment (BCA) of ba, () our assumption of high parental support from Raiffeisen Bank International (RBI; deposits Baa1 stable; BCA ba), leading to one notch of rating uplift, () the result of our Advanced Loss Given Failure (LGF) analysis, which takes into account the severity of loss faced by the different liability classes in resolution, and which leads to two notches of rating uplift for Raiffeisen s deposit ratings, and (4) our assumption of low likelihood of support from the Romanian Government (Baa stable) in case of need, which results in no further uplift. The bank s Counterparty Risk Assessment (CR Assessment) is Baa(cr)/P-(cr). Raiffeisen s BCA of ba is supported by Romania s Macro Profile of Moderate-, and reflects the bank s satisfactory asset quality, adequate capitalisation and liquidity, which it has maintained in recent years. The BCA also captures moderate pressure on profitability due to significant loan loss provisions. Exhibit 1 Rating Scorecard - Key Financial Ratios Raiffeisen Bank SA (BCA: ba) Andreea Prodea -1-5-155 Associate Analyst andreea.prodea@moodys.com Arif Bekiroglu 44--777-171 AVP-Analyst arif.bekiroglu@moodys.com Carola Schuler 49-69-77-766 MD-Banking carola.schuler@moodys.com CLIENT SERVICES Americas 1-1-55-165 Asia Pacific 85-551-77 Japan 81--548-41 EMEA 44--777-5454 45% 14% 4% 1% 5% % 1% 5% 8% % 6% 15% 4% % 1% 8.4% 14.4% Asset Risk: Problem Loans/ Gross Loans Capital: Tangible Common Equity/Risk-Weighted Assets % Solvency Factors (LHS) Source: Moody's Financial Metrics 1.% 6.9% 8.5% Profitability: Net Income/ Tangible Assets Funding Structure: Market Funds/ Tangible Banking Assets Liquid Resources: Liquid Banking Assets/Tangible Banking Assets 5% % Liquidity Factors (RHS) Liquidity Factors Armen L. Dallakyan 44--777-1688 VP-Senior Analyst armen.dallakyan@moodys.com Solvency Factors Analyst Contacts Median ba-rated banks 16%
Credit strengths Established franchise with loan book quality better than the average for the Romanian banking system Capitalisation is adequate, but will likely be constrained by profitability pressures, rising loan growth and significant dividend payments Adequate liquidity and a deposit funded profile Credit challenges Significant provisions will likely constrain profitability FX-funding levels are high, albeit declining The outlook on Raiffeisen's Baa deposit ratings is stable as we expect no material changes in the bank's credit fundamentals over the next 1-18 months. The stable outlook is in line with the ratings outlook on RBI. Factors that could lead to an upgrade An upgrade of Raiffeisen's long-term ratings could be prompted by (1) a higher BCA, in combination with () a strengthening of its parent RBI's ba standalone credit profile, and/or () an increase in uplift resulting from our LGF analysis. Upward pressure on Raiffeisen's BCA could develop (1) from a material improvement in the operating environment, and () if the bank achieves stronger loan book quality and capital adequacy while maintaining good revenue generating capacity. However, any mild upward BCA pressure would rather compress the currently applicable one notch parental support uplift instead of leading to an upgrade of the deposit ratings. At the same time, an upgrade of RBI's BCA coupled with an upgrade of Raiffeisen's own BCA could have positive impact on the bank's deposit ratings. Alterations in Raiffeisen's liability structure may change the amount of uplift provided by our Advanced LGF analysis and lead to a higher notching from the bank s adjusted BCA, thereby positively affecting deposit ratings. Factors that could lead to a downgrade A downgrade of Raiffeisen's ratings could be triggered by (1) a downgrade of its BCA; () a downgrade of RBI's BCA that would eliminate parental support uplift; and/or () a reduction in rating uplift as a result of our LGF analysis. The bank's BCA could experience downward pressure as a result of substantial weakening in its profitability, erosion of its capital base and/or increase in asset risk. Even a mild downgrade of Raiffeisen's BCA but unchanged parental support assumptions on the basis of RBI's ba BCA would lower the bank's adjusted BCA accordingly. Furthermore, alterations in the bank's liability structure may change the amount of uplift provided by our Advanced LGF analysis and lead to a lower notching from the bank s adjusted BCA, thereby negatively affecting deposit ratings and CRA. This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history. 1 September 17
Key Indicators Exhibit Raiffeisen Bank SA (Consolidated Financials) [1] Total Assets (EUR million) Total Assets (USD million) Tangible Common Equity (EUR million) Tangible Common Equity (USD million) Problem Loans / Gross Loans (%) Tangible Common Equity / Risk Weighted Assets (%) Problem Loans / (Tangible Common Equity + Loan Loss Reserve) (%) Net Interest Margin (%) PPI / Average RWA (%) Net Income / Tangible Assets (%) Cost / Income Ratio (%) Market Funds / Tangible Banking Assets (%) Liquid Banking Assets / Tangible Banking Assets (%) Gross Loans / Due to Customers (%) 1-16 1-15 1-14 1-1 1-1 CAGR/Avg.4 7,66 7,769 694 7 7.6 14.4 6.4.4 4.8 1. 5.5 6.9 8.5 79.6 6,964 7,565 678 76 8.5 14.9 9.9.5 4. 1.4 6. 9.7 9.9 8.8 6,41 7,77 75 877 9.1 17.1 7..7 4.8 1.8 55.5 9.8 41. 81.1 5,945 8,19 669 9 1.4 15. 4. 4. 4.4 1.8 58.5 9.4 9.1 8.9 5,44 7,14 6 818 8.6 14.6 7.7 4.7 4. 1.7 59.6 1.9 4. 94.1 8.15.5.85 -.85 8.86 15.47 8.66.96 4.57 1.66 57.56 9.96 8.66 8.96 [1] All figures and ratios are adjusted using Moody's standard adjustments [] Basel III - fully-loaded or transitional phase-in; IFRS [] Basel II; IFRS [4] May include rounding differences due to scale of reported amounts [5] Compound Annual Growth Rate (%) based on time period presented for the latest accounting regime [6] Simple average of periods presented for the latest accounting regime. [7] Simple average of Basel III periods presented Source: Moody's Financial Metrics Profile Raiffeisen is a Romanian universal bank, subsidiary of Austria's Raiffeisen Bank International. The bank provides financial services to individuals, small and medium-size enterprises (SMEs), and corporate clients. As of 1 December 16, Raiffeisen was the fifth-largest bank in Romania with a market share of 9% in terms of assets ( 7.4 billion), with a country-wide network of more than 47 branches. Detailed credit considerations Asset quality will likely improve further Raiffeisen's asset quality will continue to improve over the next 1 to 18 months owing to the growing economy that benefits borrowers' ability to service their debt and the bank's ongoing efforts to sell and write-off some of the non-performing loans (NPLs). We expect Romania's real GDP to grow by 5.% and 4.5%, respectively, in 17 and 18. Raiffeisen s NPL ratio declined slightly to of 8.% in June 17 from 8.1% in December 16, according to the financial disclosures of RBI. The bank s asset quality is significantly stronger than the average for the Romanian banking system 1% NPL ratio in December 16. Raiffeisen s NPL coverage ratio of 7.4% in June 17 is adequate and was little changed from year-end 16. The bank's portfolio is fairly balanced, with exposure to retail customers forming 66.8% of total loans in June 17. A significant, albeit declining, proportion of all customer loans (on net basis), about 7%, is denominated in foreign currency as of June 17 (predominantly in EUR), which is a source of risk for unhedged borrowers if the local currency depreciates materially. The bank also has a small exposure to mortgages in Swiss Francs (CHF) that accounted for slightly over 4% of the net loan book in June 17. In February 17 Romania s Constitutional Court ruled that a bill on the mandatory conversion of retail mortgages denominated in Swiss francs to the local currency, the lei, using historical exchange rates was unconstitutional. The court s decision is credit positive for Romanian banks because it will spare them from sizable expenses stemming from the mandatory conversion. Raiffeisen is in the process of voluntarily converting some of these loans to Romanian leis, which results into additional provisioning costs as the conversion includes certain haircut to the loan value. To reflect the improvement in asset quality, we adjust the Asset Risk score up by one notch to b1. 1 September 17
Capitalisation is adequate, but will likely be constrained by profitability pressures, rising loan growth and significant dividend payments Raiffeisen reported a consolidated Tier 1 ratio (excludes retained earnings for the year) of 1.15% and Total Capital ratio of 16.59% as at end-16. These ratios have declined from 1.9% and 18.46%, respectively, as of year-end 15, following a substantial dividend payment in the amount of 7% of the prior year profits and rising risk-weighted assets. The bank's leverage ratio (equity-to-assets) was 9.89% in June 17 up modestly from 9.78% in December 16. The risks of further large dividend payments, coupled with moderately increasing level of risk-weighted assets (4.% year-on-year as of June 17, driven by retail lending growth) and profitability pressures could result in a further decline in the capital adequacy ratio. To reflect this, we adjust the Capital score down by three notches to ba. Profitability will likely be constrained by significant loan loss provisions Raiffeisen remains consistently profitable, although its profitability has come under some pressure as a result of the lower interest rate environment, and increased provisioning costs in the past two years. Raiffeisen s net interest income for 16 rose by 5.4% due to a strong reduction in funding costs. The net fee and commission income for the same period remained relatively stable and at more than half of the amount of net interest income remained a key component of the bank s operating income. The impact of a large 6% increase in loan loss provisions in 16 was partly cushioned by gains from the sale of shares in VISA Europe. As a result, the bank's net income rose by 5.4%, leading to a return on average assets of 1.8% in 16 (1.41% in 15). According to RBI s financial disclosures, Raiffeisen Romania reported EUR55 mln of net income in H1 17, 46% higher than a year earlier driven by higher revenues and reduced, albeit still material provisions. We expect that Raiffeisen will continue the process of voluntary conversion of the CHF mortgages, and therefore will recognize sizable loan loss provisions in the next few quarters. The provisioning rate was 1.9% in H1 17, substantially higher compared to its main competitors but also cushioned by strong revenue generation. To reflect the aforementioned pressures, we adjust the Profitability score down by one notch to ba1. Adequate liquidity and a deposit funded profile will be maintained Raiffeisen Bank remains fully deposit funded, with a loan-to-deposit ratio of 74.9% at end-june 17 (8.7% at end-june 16), as growth in customer deposits outpaced growth in loans. Market funding accounted for a limited 6.9% of the tangible banking assets as of year-end 16. However, the bank has a substantial dependence on FX funding, with foreign currency liabilities accounting for about 9% of the bank's liabilities, mostly in the form of domestic deposits, as of year-end 16. This high FX dependence creates high refinancing risk in times of increased volatility in currency markets, which could destabilise customer confidence and lead to deposit outflows. To reflect this risk, we adjust the Funding Structure score down by three notches to ba. In the meantime, the bank maintains a good liquidity position, with liquid banking assets (including government bonds) making up nearly 4% of tangible banking assets as at end-16. The assigned liquidity score of is in line with the macro-adjusted score. Romania's Moderate- Macro Profile supports the bank's BCA Our assessment of Romania's (Baa stable) Macro Profile at Moderate- reflects the country s moderate economic and institutional strength, and low susceptibility to event risk, as well as the still material, albeit declining, asset and funding risks in the banking system. Romania s economic strength reflects a favourable medium-term growth outlook and currently strong debt affordability metrics, balanced by an expected deterioration in the public finance and debt outlook, and an erosion in external competitiveness in the medium term. Romania continues to experience challenges stemming from weak asset quality in the banking system and a still-high dependence on foreign currency funds. (Please refer to: Romania's Macro Profile: Moderate - ) Notching considerations Affiliate support We assess the probability of parental support as high based on (1) the 99.9% ownership by RBI; () Raiffeisen's association with RBI's brand. This results in one notch of uplift for the Adjusted BCA of ba from the BCA of ba. 4 1 September 17
Loss Given Failure analysis Raiffeisen is subject to the EU Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive (BRRD), which we consider to be an Operational Resolution Regime. We assume residual tangible common equity of % and losses post-failure of 8% of tangible banking assets, a 5% runoff in junior wholesale deposits, a 5% run-off in preferred deposits, a proportion of 6% of deposits considered junior (in line with EU average) and assign a 5% probability to deposits being preferred to senior unsecured debt. These are in line with our standard assumptions. Our LGF analysis indicates a very low loss-given-failure for deposits, leading us to position its Preliminary Rating Assessment two notches above the Adjusted BCA. Government support considerations BRRD restricts the ability of governments to provide support to banks, even if they were willing to do so, requiring losses to be imposed on even senior creditors and large depositors under many circumstances. Because of that we believe that there is a low likelihood of public (government) support for Raiffeisen's deposits in the event of its failure, even though Raiffeisen is one of Romania's largest banks. CR Assessments are opinions of how counterparty obligations are likely to be treated if a bank fails and are distinct from debt and deposit ratings in that they (1) consider only the risk of default rather than both the likelihood of default and the expected financial loss suffered in the event of default and () apply to counterparty obligations and contractual commitments rather than debt or deposit instruments. The CR assessment is an opinion of the counterparty risk related to a bank's covered bonds, contractual performance obligations (servicing), derivatives (e.g., swaps), letters of credit, guarantees and liquidity facilities. Raiffaisen Bank's CR Assessment is positioned at Baa(cr)/Prime-(cr). This includes three notches of uplift relative to the Adjusted BCA of ba, based on the cushion against default provided to the senior obligations. In addition, the low probability of government support does not result in any uplift. About Moody's bank scorecard Our Scorecard is designed to capture, express and explain in summary form our Rating Committee's judgment. When read in conjunction with our research, a fulsome presentation of our judgment is expressed. As a result, the output of our Scorecard may materially differ from that suggested by raw data alone (though it has been calibrated to avoid the frequent need for strong divergence). The Scorecard output and the individual scores are discussed in rating committees and may be adjusted up or down to reflect conditions specific to each rated entity. 5 1 September 17
Rating Methodology and Scorecard Factors Exhibit Raiffeisen Bank SA Macro Factors Weighted Macro Profile Moderate - Factor Historic Macro Ratio Adjusted Score Credit Trend Assigned Score Key driver #1 Solvency Asset Risk Problem Loans / Gross Loans 8.4% b b1 Expected trend Capital TCE / RWA 14.4% ba Capital retention Profitability Net Income / Tangible Assets 1.% ba1 Expected trend Combined Solvency Score Liquidity Funding Structure Market Funds / Tangible Banking Assets 6.9% baa ba Deposit quality Liquid Resources Liquid Banking Assets / Tangible Banking Assets 8.5% Expected trend ba baa Balance Sheet in-scope (RON million) 5,47 6,75 19,518 6,858 496 1,,41 1 September 17 Key driver # ba Combined Liquidity Score Financial Profile Business Diversification Opacity and Complexity Corporate Behavior Total Qualitative Adjustments Sovereign or Affiliate constraint: Scorecard Calculated BCA range Assigned BCA Affiliate Support notching Adjusted BCA Other liabilities Deposits Preferred deposits Junior Deposits Senior unsecured bank debt Equity Total Tangible Banking Assets 6 1% ba1 ba Baa ba1-ba ba 1 ba % in-scope 16.4% 79.1% 58.5%.6% 1.5%.% 1% at-failure (RON million) 8,16,685 18,54 5,14 496 1,,41 % at-failure 4.5% 71.% 55.6% 15.4% 1.5%.% 1%
Debt class Deposits De Jure waterfall De Facto waterfall Notching LGF Assigned Additional Preliminary LGF notching Rating Instrument Sub- Instrument SubDe Jure De Facto Notching Guidance notching Assessment volume + ordination volume + ordination vs. subordination subordination Adjusted BCA baa (cr).% 4.5% Instrument class Loss Given Failure notching Deposits Additional Preliminary Rating Notching Assessment baa (cr) Government Support notching Local Currency Rating Baa (cr) Baa Foreign Currency Rating -Baa Source: Moody's Financial Metrics Ratings Exhibit 4 Category RAIFFEISEN BANK SA Bank Deposits Baseline Credit Assessment Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment Moody's Rating Stable Baa/P- ba ba Baa(cr)/P-(cr) PARENT: RAIFFEISEN BANK INTERNATIONAL AG Bank Deposits Baseline Credit Assessment Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment Senior Unsecured Subordinate Pref. Stock Non-cumulative -Dom Curr Commercial Paper -Dom Curr Other Short Term -Dom Curr Stable Baa1/P- ba ba1 Baa1(cr)/P-(cr) Baa1 Ba1 B1 (hyb) P- (P)P- Source: Moody's Investors Service 7 1 September 17
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CLIENT SERVICES 9 Americas 1-1-55-165 Asia Pacific 85-551-77 Japan 81--548-41 EMEA 44--777-5454 1 September 17