Banco Internacional de Costa Rica, S.A.
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1 CREDIT OPINION Banco Internacional de Costa Rica, S.A. Semiannual Update Update Summary RATINGS Banco Internacional de Costa Rica, S.A. Domicile PANAMA CITY, Panama Long Term Debt Not Assigned Long Term Deposit B1 Type LT Bank Deposits - Fgn Curr Outlook Negative Please see the ratings section at the end of this report for more information. The ratings and outlook shown reflect information as of the publication date. We assign Banco International de Costa Rica, S.A. (BICSA) a baseline credit assessment (BCA) of b2, which captures the bank's low liquidity as well as its weak profitability and asset quality challenges. These credit drivers are partly mitigated by a strong core capitalization, owing to a full earnings retention policy. We believe the alignment of BICSA's management with that of its controlling parent, Banco de Costa Rica (BCR, Ba2 negative ba2), will help strengthen the corporate governance of the former, which was undermined last year. Nevertheless, these improvements still have to be tested over time. BICSA's B1 deposit rating continues to benefit from one notch of uplift from the bank's b2 BCA, incorporating our assessment of a high probability of extraordinary affiliate support from BCR should it be needed. The assessment is based on BICSA's relevance to BCR's international strategy and on the long track record of a full earnings retention policy. BICSA's ratings have remained unchanged since the last rating action in August 216. Exhibit 1 Rating Scorecard - Key Financial Ratios BICSA (BCA: b2) Median b2-rated banks Contacts 16% 5% Georges Hatcherian AVP-Analyst georges.hatcherian@moodys.com 14% 45% Aaron Freedman Associate Managing Director aaron.freedman@moodys.com Solvency Factors 35% 1% 3% 8% 25% 6% 2% 15% 4% 2% 1% 1.7% 14.9% % Capital: Tangible Common Equity/Risk-Weighted Assets Asset Risk: Problem Loans/ Gross Loans Solvency Factors (LHS) Source: Moody's Financial Metrics CLIENT SERVICES Americas Asia Pacific Japan EMEA % Profitability: Net Income/ Tangible Assets 44.8% 14.9% Funding Structure: Market Funds/ Tangible Banking Assets Liquid Resources: Liquid Banking Assets/Tangible Banking Assets 5% % Liquidity Factors (RHS) Liquidity Factors Felipe Carvallo VP-Senior Analyst felipe.carvallo@moodys.com 4% 12%
2 Credit Strengths Strong capitalization, supported by a full earnings retention policy BICSA's ratings capture a weighted-average country Macro Profile of Moderate - Credit Challenges Weak profitability due to rising funding costs amid stalled business growth Asset risks deriving from high borrower concentrations Corporate governance weaknesses remain a source of strain for the bank's low liquidity and short term-whosale funding, though we note some improvements Rating Outlook The outlook on BICSA's deposit rating is negative reflecting concerns that headline risks may undermine the bank's already weakened funding and liquidity profile as its governance structure and strategic direction are revisited. Factors that Could Lead to an Upgrade Upward pressures on BICSA's deposit rating are limited at this juncture in light of the negative outlook. Nevertheless, the bank's ratings could be stabilized if profitability and asset quality are preserved amid a well-tested corporate governance structure. An improvement in the funding profile of the bank would also be consistent with a stabilization in ratings. Factors that Could Lead to a Downgrade BICSA's ratings will likely be lowered if the uncertainties persist around governance structure, the long-term business plan for BICSA and a well-defined strategy to strengthen the bank's funding profile. The ratings will also face downward pressure if liquidity does not improve materially. Key Indicators Exhibit 2 Banco Internacional de Costa Rica, S.A. (Consolidated Financials) [1] Total Assets (USD million) Tangible Common Equity (USD million) Problem Loans / Gross Loans (%) Tangible Common Equity / Risk Weighted Assets (%) Problem Loans / (Tangible Common Equity + Loan Loss Reserve) (%) Net Interest Margin (%) PPI / Average RWA (%) Net Income / Tangible Assets (%) Cost / Income Ratio (%) Market Funds / Tangible Banking Assets (%) Liquid Banking Assets / Tangible Banking Assets (%) Gross Loans / Due to Customers (%) , , , , CAGR/Avg.3 1, [1] All figures and ratios are adjusted using Moody's standard adjustments [2] Basel I; IFRS [3] May include rounding differences due to scale of reported amounts [4] Compound Annual Growth Rate (%) based on time period presented for the latest accounting regime [5] Simple average of periods presented for the latest accounting regime. [6] Simple average of Basel I periods presented Source: Moody's Financial Metrics This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history. 2
3 Detailed credit considerations Weak profitability due to rising funding costs amid stalled business growth BICSA's returns remained low in 217 due to business volumes contraction. As of June 217, net income declined 24% year-on-year, to a modest.54% of tangible banking assets from an already low.67% a year earlier. The lower returns are explained by a contraction in the net interest margin (NIM) to 2.1% from 2.4% over the same period, due to lower interest income. Efficiency deteriorated, even if BICSA does not have a branch network, with the cost-income increasing to a high 62% as of June 217 from 57% in the same month of 216. Profitability, on the other hand, was supported by a 27% decline in loan loss provisions, coupled with a significant increase in loan recoveries and a slight decrease in operating expenses. We expect BICSA's net income to be between.4% and.5% of tangible assets by year-end 217. Weakening asset quality amid high borrower concentrations BICSA's asset quality remains weak vis-à-vis its historical levels. The bank's nonperforming loans (NPLs) increased 47% y-o-y in absolute terms as of June 217 to 1.7% of gross loans, higher than 1.5% average in , though still below the median for b2-rated banks. We expect credit quality at BICSA to remain strained in 217 and 218 in line with the growing economic challenges in the bank's core markets of Costa Rica and Panama, which gather a combined 68% of gross loans. Further, deteriorations in asset quality can be magnified by high borrower concentrations, with the largest 2 exposures representing about 1.8 times the bank's core capital, despite some industry diversification in the loan book. The credit portfolio is devoted to industrial manufacturing (25% of total loans), commerce (25%), services (2%) and financial institutions (15%). Resilient capitalization, supported by a full earnings retention policy BICSA's capital is robust as a result of a consistent full earnings retention policy. The bank's tangible common equity (TCE) has increased to 14.9% of risk-weighted assets as of June 217, up from 12.6% by year-end 215, largely explained by a 6% decline in assets. As BICSA resumes the expansion of its loan portfolio, the TCE ratio should gradually slide to the historical metric of around 12%. Corporate governance weaknesses remain a source of strain fro the bank's low liquidity and short-term wholesale funding, though we note some improvements After the resignation of all members appointed to BICSA's board by Banco Nacional de Costa Rica (BNCR, Ba2 negative, ba2) in August 216, both shareholders agreed to align BICSA's corporate governance and controls with BCR. BICSA's board of directors was reduced from 9 to 7 members, three appointed by BCR, two by BNCR and two independent members as required by Panamanian regulations. An alignment of BICSA's management with BCR's will help strengthen the formers' corporate governance, though these improvements still have to be tested over time, particularly regarding a stable long-term business and funding strategy for BICSA. A sustainable improvement in corporate governance is critical to protect BICSA's confidence-sensitive and concentrated short-term wholesale funding, amid a still modest liquidity. Liquid assets stood at 14.9% of tangible banking assets as of June 217, which is low in light of the bank's high reliance on potentially fickle market funds, which comprised 45% of total assets, and are largely shortterm skewed. Management has decided to maintain liquidity buffers at around current levels taking into consideration the recurrent cashflows of the largely short-term loan portfolio. Liquidity, however, is still well below the 33% for similarly rated banks. BICSA's ratings capture BICSA'S RATINGS CAPTURE A WEIGHTED-AVERAGE COUNTRY MACROPROFILE OF MODERATE- We computed a weighted average macroprofile for BICSA in light of its multi-country operations, though largely concentrated in the core markets of Costa Rica (macroprofile of Moderate - ) and Panama (Moderate), on top of other Central and South American countries. Costa Rica's (Ba2 negative) relatively diversified economy has benefited from healthy growth dynamics over the past several years. Its long democratic tradition and strong institutions provide a high degree of policy predictability, though more recently lawmakers have faced gridlock when it comes to fiscal reforms. Further, the high level of financial dollarization could force the central bank to use its international reserves to limit volatility of the exchange rate. The banking system is highly concentrated, with two state-owned banks accounting for almost half of all loans outstanding, thanks to an explicit sovereign guarantee on their liabilities that provides significant advantage relative to their private sector competitors in terms of attracting inexpensive local currency retail deposits, and consequently in local-currency lending. 3
4 Panama (Baa2 stable) has a dynamic service-based economy with a track record of sustained high growth, supported by an emerging regional financial center and by the vital global role of the Panama Canal. The country's dollarized financial system has helped ensure macroeconomic stability, but has also raised dependence on offshore financing, and limits space for economic policy making. Strong economic growth has fueled a continued expansion of the banking system over the past five years and credit penetration is among the highest in Latin America. Support and structural considerations Affiliate Support Our assumption is of a high probability of support from its controlling parent, Banco de Costa Rica, which gauges the full retention policy, coupled with the endorsement of BICSA's purpose of developing international business with companies in Central and South America. Government Support We believe that there is a low likelihood of government support from Panama for BICSA's bank deposits ratings in the event of its failure. This probability reflects a largely wholesale and external deposit base, which in our view gives no incentive to the Panamanian government to support the bank if needed. Further, Panama, as a legally dollarized economy, does not have a lender of last resort, which further reduces the probability of government support. About Moody's Bank Scorecard Our Scorecard is designed to capture, express and explain in summary form our Rating Committee's judgment. When read in conjunction with our research, a fulsome presentation of our judgment is expressed. As a result, the output of our Scorecard may materially differ from that suggested by raw data alone (though it has been calibrated to avoid the frequent need for strong divergence). 4
5 Rating Methodology and Scorecard Factors Exhibit 3 Banco Internacional de Costa Rica, S.A. Macro Factors Weighted Macro Profile Moderate - Factor 1% Historic Macro Ratio Adjusted Score Solvency Asset Risk Problem Loans / Gross Loans Credit Trend Assigned Score Key driver #1 1.7% baa3 ba1 Single name concentration Capital TCE / RWA 14.9% baa2 ba1 Expected trend Profitability Net Income / Tangible Assets.5% ba3 Expected trend Combined Solvency Score Liquidity Funding Structure Market Funds / Tangible Banking Assets baa3 44.8% Liquid Resources Liquid Banking Assets / Tangible Banking Assets 14.9% Combined Liquidity Score Financial Profile Business Diversification Opacity and Complexity Corporate Behavior Total Qualitative Adjustments Sovereign or Affiliate constraint: Scorecard Calculated BCA range Assigned BCA Affiliate Support notching Adjusted BCA Instrument class Counterparty Risk Assessment Deposits ba2 b3 b2 Loss Given Failure notching 1 caa2 Extent of market funding reliance b2 Expected trend caa Baa2 -b3 b2 - Additional Preliminary Rating Assessment Notching Key driver #2 ba3 (cr) Government Support notching Local Currency Rating --- Ba3 (cr) -- Foreign Currency Rating -B1 Source: Moody's Financial Metrics 5
6 Ratings Exhibit 4 Category BANCO INTERNACIONAL DE COSTA RICA, S.A. Outlook Bank Deposits Baseline Credit Assessment Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment Counterparty Risk Assessment Moody's Rating Negative B1/NP b2 Ba3(cr)/NP(cr) PARENT: BANCO DE COSTA RICA Outlook Bank Deposits -Fgn Curr Bank Deposits -Dom Curr Baseline Credit Assessment Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment Counterparty Risk Assessment Senior Unsecured Negative Ba3/NP Ba2/NP ba2 ba2 Ba1(cr)/NP(cr) Ba2 Source: Moody's Investors Service 6
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8 CLIENT SERVICES 8 Americas Asia Pacific Japan EMEA
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