Voyage to Indonesia Outreach Event for IMF/WB 2018 Annual Meeting in Bali John G. Nelmes Senior Resident Representative IMF Indonesia Office January 2017
Overview of the IMF Indonesia and the IMF IMF/WB 2018 Annual Meeting in Bali Economic Outlook Resources and Careers at the IMF
189 countries represented Non-members include: Cuba, North Korea, Andorra, Monaco, Liechtenstein
Around 2,700 Staff From 148 countries
Board of Governors IMFC Executive Board Management Staff
6% Shift of voting shares to emerging market and developing countries BRICS now in top 10 shareholders
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT Quotas VOTING SHARE Emerging & Developing 39,6% 60,4% Advanced Borrowing Other 51.87% 16.5% United States Germany 5.3% 6.13% 6.07% 8.06% Japan China 6.79% Other BRICS Middle East
Our key mandate is to promote global economic and financial stability. - Christine Lagarde
1. Surveillance Bilateral, Regional, Global Evenhanded approach Spillover and cross-country analysis
2. Lending Concessional Non-Concessional Conditionality Zero percent interest rate, for developing countries Crisis management & prevention Flexible, focused, social, macro-critical
3. Capacity Building Regional technical assistance centers: Fiji Lebanon Tanzania Mauritius Gabon Ghana Mali Barbados Guatemala Thailand India Regional training centers: Africa Training Institute (ATI) IMF-Singapore Regional Training Institute (STI) Joint Vienna Institute (JVI) IMF-Middle East Center for Economics and Finance (CEF) The Joint Regional Training Center for Latin America
Role of the IMF: Traditional Areas of Work Monetary policy Fiscal policy Financial Stability New Areas of Work Inequality, jobs and inclusive growth Climate change and energy pricing Female labor force participation
Whom do we engage with? Parliamentarians Civil Society Organizations National and International Trade Unions Think Tanks/Academics Youth Why? Information exchange Finger on the pulse of country Policy dialogue Effectiveness of policy advice
Governance and Operation reforms Program reforms
Indonesia and the IMF
IMF: Voting Power Share United States (17%) Others (39%) Japan (6%) China (6%) Other European (5%) Germany (5%) UK (4%) France (4%) Southern European (4%) LAC (5%) SEA (4%) Note: LAC = Latin American Countries; SEA = Southeast Asian countries. Source: http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/memdir/eds.aspx
7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Indonesia: IMF Technical Cooperation and Training Technical Cooperation Training (RHS) 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Note: TC is in person years of field delivery; while training is in participant weeks. 0 Source: IMF Capacity Development in Numbers
100% Indonesia: Type of Technical Cooperation (in percent) 100% Indonesia: Type of Training (in percent) 80% 80% 60% 60% 40% 40% 20% 20% 0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Fiscal Monetary Statistic Legal Other Source: IMF Capacity Development in Numbers 0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Finance Legal Macroeconomic Statistic Fiscal Other Source: IMF Capacity Development in Numbers
http://www.imf.org/external/ country/idn/
http://www.imf.org/external/ country/idn/
Prague (2000) Istanbul (2009) Dubai (2003) Tokyo (2012) Hong Kong (1997) Singapore (2006) Lima (2015) Bali (2018)
IMF Governors International Monetary and Finance Committee (IMFC) Plenary
Development Committee Meeting
Economic Outlook
World Advanced Economies Emerging and Developing Asia U.S. Euro Area China Japan 2016 3.1 1.6 4.1 5.2 1.6 1.7 6.7 0.9 Change 0.0 0.1-0.1-0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 2017 3.4 1.9 4.5 5.3 2.3 1.6 6.5 0.8 Change 0.0 0.1-0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 2018 3.6 2.0 4.8 5.3 2.5 1.6 6.0 0.5 Change 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 Note: Change is relative to the World Economic Outlook October 2016. Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook January 2017 Update; and IMF, World Economic Outlook October 2016.
Growth has held up well relative to other EMs.. Emerging Market Countries' Growth in 2016 (Percentage) Emerging Market Countries' Growth in 2017 (Percentage) 8 6 EMs 8 7 EMs 6 4 5 2 4 0 3-2 2 1-4 0 Source: IMF Jan 2017 WEO Update Database Source: IMF Jan 2017 WEO Update Database
Outlook Risks 2016 2017 2021 GDP Growth (%) 5.0 5.1 5.5 Inflation (%) 3.0 4.5 4.0 Current Account (% of GDP) -2.0-2.0-2.3 Upside Stronger global growth Higher commodity prices Downside Uncertainties around the policies of the incoming U.S. administration Protectionist policies Source: IMF, 2016 Article IV Consultation More volatile global financial conditions and higher interest rates Spillovers from a significant China slowdown Tax revenue shortfalls
Well-placed focus on higher revenues and spending on priority areas infrastructure, health, education with continued deficit control Fiscal Monetary Current stance appropriate, maintain flexibility Policy Advice Sound, continue close monitoring Financial Structural Reform Continue making good progress on business environment, labor skills
Resources and Careers at the IMF
http://www.imf.org /external/index.htm
https://www.edx.org/ school/imfx
Mauliate -Terima kasih