Development of Economy and Financial Markets of Kazakhstan National Bank of Kazakhstan Macroeconomic development
GDP, real growth, % 116 112 18 14 1 113,5 11,7 216,7223,8226,5 19,8 19,8 19,3 19,619,7 199, 179,7 18,9 124,6 136,8149,5163,9 19,8 2 21 22 23 real growth, % 24 25 26 27 13,3 11,2 28 29 243,1 261,3 274,4 17,317,5 15,15,1 21 211 accumulated GDP growth (right) 212 II-213 28 25 22 19 16 13 1 3 GDP per capita, USD 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 1 229 1 491 1 658 2 68 2 874 3 771 5 292 6 772 8 499 7 165 9 7 12 119 12 39 11 357 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 II- 213 4
External Sector Indicators (USD mln.) 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 1Q213 Current Account -2-8 372 6 25-4 121 1 386 12 268 6 154 1 857 as % to GDP -2.5-8. 4.7-3.6.9 6.5 3. 4.2 Exports of Goods and 41 438 51 773 76 257 48 27 65 511 91 874 96 892 21 419 Services as % to GDP 51.1 49.6 57.1 41.8 44.3 48.9 47.9 48.9 Imports of Goods and 32 881 44 99 49 571 39 1 44 26 51 73 61 676 12 73 Services as % to GDP 4.5 43.1 37.1 34. 29.9 27.5 3.5 29. Direct Investment, net -6 689-8 31-13 115-1 83-3 665-9 273-12 44-2 216 flows* as % to GDP -8.2-7.7-9.8-8.8-2.5-4.9-6.1-5.1 International Reserves, 19 127 17 629 19 849 23 75 28 246 29 3 28 289 28 19 stock at the end of period** in months of imports of 7. 4.7 4.8 7.1 7.7 6.8 5.5 5.4 goods and services National Fund, stock at the end of period 14 92 21 6 27 486 24 368 3 98 43 625 57 766 59 86 *net flows means net acquisition of financial assets minus net incurrence of liabilities (FDI abroad minus FDI in Kazakhstan by investment direction); **data of international investment position by methodology of BPM655 5 USD bln. USD bln. Current Account 2,7 -,8 2,2 1,6 3,2 1,9 (1,1% to GDP) 15 (-3,8% to GDP) (8,2% to GDP) (4,5% to GDP) (8,% to GDP) (4,2% to GDP) 12 1 9 7,9 9, 12,3 1,1 6 5 8,7 2, -,1 3-1,5-1,1-1,5-1,, -1,6, -,2, -1,4 -,2-4,3-1,7-4,2-6,4-7,4-6,6-5 -3-1 -6 1Q28 1Q29 1Q21 1Q211 1Q212 1Q213 Trade balance International services Secondary income Primary income Current account (right scale) 2 $ Foreign direct investments Foreign in direct Kazakhstan investments (by investment direction) 8 117,2 25 117,2 16,9 125 3 16,9 125 7 99,8 95,4 62 25 87, 95,4 82,6 1 75,2 82,6 1 52 71,8 15 58,6 71,8 75 4 59, 59, 75 15 48, 7,3 31 6,2 21,1 27, 22,5 21,3 19,8 14,3 21,4 19, 22,2 19,1 23,5 6,1 6,6 5,8 5 5 21 4,7 4,4 14,3 3,5 13,2 3,6 11,6 13,9 14, 4,1 13,2 11,6 13,9 14, 25 15 2,6 2,2 25 6,6 4,1 1Q28 1Q29 1Q21 1Q211 1Q212 1Q213 28 28 29 29 21 21 211 211 212 212 1Q213 Gross FDI inflow Net FDI inflow Stocks of FDI for the end of period (right scale) Gross FDI inflow Net FDI inflow Stocks of of FDI for for the the end of of period (right scale) 6 % to GDP USD bln.
External debt of Kazakhstan 118,2 14, bln. USD 7 International Reserves and National Fund USD bln. 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 65.7 64.3 43.7 57.8 27.5 24.4 3.6 14.121. 2.5 3.1 5. 9.3 7.1 19.117.6 19.9 23.1 28.3 29.328.3 25.5 26.3 1.2 1.9 3.7 5.1 8.1 21 22 23 24 25 International reserves 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 Jul.13 National Fund's assets in foreign currency 26 Aug.13 92. 8
Exchange Rate of Tenge to USD 175 165 155 145 135 125 115 28 29 21 211 212 Medium-term band Jan-8 Mar-8 May-8 Jul-8 Sep-8 Nov-8 Jan-9 Mar-9 May-9 Jul-9 Sep-9 Nov-9 Jan-1 Mar-1 May-1 Jul-1 Sep-1 Nov-1 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 From February 28, 211 the National Bank switched to managed floating exchange rate regime 9 Real effective exchange rate of tenge 13 12 % 11 1 9 8 114. dec. jun.1 dec.1 jun.2 dec.2 jun.3 dec.3 jun.4 dec.4 jun.5 dec.5 jun.6 dec.6 jun.7 dec.7 jun.8 dec.8 jun.9 dec.9 jun.1 dec.1 jun.11 dec.11 jun.12 dec.12 jun.13 1
Banking system development Banks assets 1 9 87,5 9,9 % to GDP 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1,1 11,3 59,5 45,8 36,4 25,1 3,3 2,3 16,9 74,1 68, 55,2 47, 46,1 47, 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 I half 213 12
Bank capitalization (per bank) USD mln. 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2 4 8 9 14 19 3 46 76 129 339 283 436 319 349 363 331-162 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 I half 213 13 Deposit market trln.tenge 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Deposits Apr-7 Aug-7 Dec-7 Apr-8 Aug-8 Dec-8 Apr-9 Aug-9 Dec-9 Apr-1 Aug-1 Dec-1 Apr-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Aug-12 Dec-12 Apr-13 in national currency in foreign currency 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % The structure of deposits 36,8 27,2 28,8 29,7 32,5 37,5 35,9 63,2 72,8 71,2 7,3 67,5 62,5 64,1 Dec.7 Dec.8 Dec.9 Dec.1 Dec.11 Dec.12 individuals legal entities The deposits structure of individuals Jun. 213 1% 8% 36,9 41,3 55,9 44,5 42,1 39,2 39,1 6% 4% 63,1 58,7 2% 44,1 55,5 57,9 6,8 6,9 % Dec.7 Dec.8 Dec.1 Dec.1 Dec.11 Dec.12 Jun. 213 in national currency in foreign currency 14
Credit market 8 Credits to economy 1% 8% The structure of credits 25,5 31,3 29,1 27,9 26,7 28,7 3,5 7 6% trln. tenge 6 5 4 3 2 1 Apr-7 Aug-7 Dec-7 Apr-8 Aug-8 Dec-8 Apr-9 Aug-9 Dec-9 Apr-1 Aug-1 Dec-1 Apr-11 Aug.11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Aug-12 Dec-12 Apr-13 in national currency in foreign currency 4% 64,5 68,7 7,9 72,1 73,3 71,3 69,5 2% % 27 28 29 21 211 212 Jun. 213 individuals legal entities 1% 8% 42,7 44,2 48,4 42,3 35,3 29,3 28,4 6% 4% 57,3 55,8 51,6 57,7 64,7 7,7 71,6 2% % 27 28 29 21 211 212 Jun. 213 in foreign currency in national currency 15 Monetary policy
Monetary Policy The primary objective of the National Bank the maintenance of price stability Responsibilities: Formulation and implementation of monetary policy Providing of functioning of payment systems Implementation of currency regulation and currency control Contributing to financial stability 17 Annual Inflation in 27-213 21. 18.7 World prices 18. increase for food and oil products 15. 27 28 29 2.1 21 211 212 threefold decrease 12. % 9. 6. 3. 8.5 9.5 6.2 Jan-7 Mar-7 May-7 Jul-7 Sep-7 Nov-7 Jan-8 Mar-8 May-8 Jul-8 Sep-8 Nov-8 Jan-9 Mar-9 May-9 Jul-9 Sep-9 Nov-9 Jan-1 Mar-1 May-1 Jul-1 Sep-1 Nov-1 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 7.8 5.9 6. 5.9 18
Inflation factors 15 1 % 5-5 Structure of Inflation 8,4% 18,7% 9,5% 15.8 74. 11.3 7.3-8.5 4.2 17.3 23.5 46.7 1.7 14.4 44.4 27.6 6,2% 44.2 4.4 1.6 6.9 25.2 14.4 11.3 64.4 67.6 63.3 13.8-47.5 Devaluation of tenge 7,8% 7,4% 6,% 4.5 9.2 67.4 6,8% 8.1 8.8 7.1 8. 15.6 29.9 22.3 8.4 5.3-6.5-9.2 Decrease in world prices 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 1Q213* external factors population's income structural factors Inflation expectations monetary factors * - for the period from the 2nd qtr. of 212 through the 1st qtr. of 213 19 Monetary Policy Main instruments: Standing facilities Deposits Interest rate on 7-days deposits is equal to.5% Interest rate on 1-month deposits is equal to 1.% Credits The official refinancing rate is equal to 5.5% (from April 1, 213) Open market operations Operations on foreign exchange market Operations on secondary securities market Short-term notes (3, 6, 9 months) Minimal Reserve Requirements (from 13 November 212) On internal short-term liabilities 2.5% On internal long-term liabilities % On external short-term liabilities 6.% On external long-term liabilities 2.5% 2
213: New transmission mechanism of monetary policy Introduced in 212 Restore in 212 Are not implemented currently Monetary policy instruments Instruments to reduce systemic risks (financial stability) 21 Minimum Reserve Requirements KZT bln. 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Aug-6 Oct-6 Dec-6 Feb-7 Apr-7 Jun-7 Aug-7 Oct-7 Dec-7 Feb-8 Apr-8 Jun-8 Aug-8 Oct-8 Dec-8 Feb-9 Apr-9 Jun-9 Aug-9 Oct-9 Dec-9 Feb-1 Apr-1 Jun-1 Aug-1 Oct-1 Dec-1 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Excessive reserve assets Reserve Assets Minimum Reserve Requirements 22
Money Supply 1 28 29 21 211 212 % to the corresponding period of the previous year 8 6 4 2-2 -4 5.8 43. 35.1 22.2 2.9 9.6 12.6 May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul 5,3 1,4 RM M3 23