Perspective on Colorado s Budget and Economy November 2012 Office of State Planning and Budgeting Henry Sobanet, Director Erick Scheminske, Deputy Director www.colorado.gov/ospb
Comparison of Change in ISM Manufacturing and Nonmanufacturing Indices through August 2012 70 65 Expanding 60 55 55.6 50 45 40 35 Contracting 49.6 Nonmanufacturing is Outperforming the Softening Manufacturing Sector 30 Jan-00 Jun-00 Nov-00 Apr-01 Sep-01 Feb-02 Jul-02 Dec-02 May-03 Oct-03 Mar-04 Aug-04 Jan-05 Jun-05 Nov-05 Apr-06 Sep-06 Feb-07 Jul-07 Dec-07 May-08 Oct-08 Mar-09 Aug-09 Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Sep-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Manufacturing Index Nonmanufacturing Index Office of State Planning and Budgeting 2
110 Change in Jobs Nationally and in Colorado (2000 to July 2012) 108 106 Change in Number of Colorado Jobs Index 104 102 100 Change in Number of Jobs Nationally 98 The graph compares the change in the number of jobs nationally and in Colorado since January of 2000. Index: March 2000=100 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Colorado jobs level includes OSPB s estimates of forthcoming revisions to jobs data that are currently not published. The jobs figures will be benchmarked based on Quarterly Census of Employment and Wage data to more accurately reflect the number of jobs in the state than what was estimated based on a survey of employers. Office of State Planning and Budgeting 3
State General Fund Revenue, 2000-01 to 2013-14 Actual and Forecast $ in billions $8.5 $8.0 $7.5 $7.0 $6.5 $6.0 $5.5 $6.6 $5.6 $5.5 $5.8 $6.2 $7.0 $7.5 $7.7 $6.7 $6.5 $7.1 $7.7 $8.0 Forecast $8.1 $5.0 $4.5 $4.0 Office of State Planning and Budgeting 4
General Fund Revenue, 2007-08 to 2013-14 Actual and Adjusted for Population and Inflation $8.5 $8.0 $7.5 $ in billions $7.0 $6.5 $6.0 $5.5 $5.0 Adjusted for Inflation (Using 2007 as the Base Year) Actual Source: Office of State Planning and Budgeting, September 2012 Forecast Office of State Planning and Budgeting 5
35.0% % Change, 2009-10 to 2011-12 in Jobs, Personal Income, Income Tax Revenue, and Stock Market 34.0% 30.0% 25.0% 22.7% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 9.6% 5.0% 2.8% 0.0% Job Growth Personal Income Growth Individual Income Taxes S&P 500 Annual Average Office of State Planning and Budgeting 6
$1,300 Estimated Income Tax Payments and Colorado Capital Gains $19 Individual Income Tax Estimated Payments Revenue ($ in millions) $1,100 $900 $700 $500 $300 $100 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 Colorado Individual Income Estimated Tax Payments (Actual through 2011-12 and Forecast through 2012-13) - Left Axis Colorado Capital Gain Income (Actual through 2010, Forecast through 2012 based on the Congressional Budget Office's Projections of National Capital Gain Income) - Right Axis 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 $17 $15 $13 $11 $9 $7 $5 $3 $1 $ in billions Office of State Planning and Budgeting 7
2012-13 General Fund Appropriations Office of State Planning and Budgeting 8
$9.0 General Fund Money, Spending, and Reserves, 2011-12 though 2013-14 ($ in Billions) $8.5 $8.0 $7.5 $7.0 $8.032 $582.3 million Above Required Reserve ($59 Million to State Education Fund) $0.281 $8.758 $717.1 million Above Required Reserve (All to State Education Fund) $0.298 $7.743 $8.445 $0.312 $8.133 $6.5 $7.168 $6.0 2011-12 Actual Funds (Preliminary) Total General Fund Spending 2012-13 Projected Funds Available Budgeted Spending General Fund Spending Required Reserve Funds Available 2013-14 Projected Funds Available Allowable Spending with Required Reserve Office of State Planning and Budgeting 9
Medicaid Enrollment Growth Projected Increase of 144% from 2000-01 to 2012-13 700,000 650,000 600,000 550,000 500,000 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 Office of State Planning and Budgeting 10
Governor Hickenlooper s 2013-14 Budget Request The November 1, 2012 budget request includes targeted increases in several critical areas: Fully funding K-12 education at a rate that exceeds inflation plus enrollment Protecting the Last and the Least in Colorado Additional services to 809 people with developmental disabilities Additional early intervention services for children from birth to two years Increase funding for Older Coloradans Act and Elder Abuse Task Force Enhancing public safety Expanded mental health services for crisis response and community center capacity Office of State Planning and Budgeting 11
Governor Hickenlooper s 2013-14 Budget Request The November 1, 2012 budget request includes targeted increases in several critical areas: Growing support for institutions of Higher Education Enhancing economic development efforts New resources for film incentive rebates and loan guarantees Expanded tax incentive funding for job creators in Colorado Funding for tourism advertisement and Colorado branding efforts Investing in our infrastructure and local communities Ongoing COP payments and extensive controlled maintenance on State-owned buildings Average 3.% pay increase for State employees (COLA and Merit Pay) Saving for the future Expanding the required General Fund reserve from 4% to 5% Growing the balance in the Controlled Maintenance Trust Fund Office of State Planning and Budgeting 12
Governor Hickenlooper s 2013-14 Budget Request Table 1: Total Funds (by major category) 2012-13 Total Funds 2013-14 Total Funds 2013-14 Change 2013-14 % Change Health Care Policy and Financing $5,561,158,114 $6,036,722,041 $475,563,927 8.6% K-12 Education 4,421,710,962 4,634,730,118 213,019,156 4.8% Higher Education 3,033,991,124 3,102,280,175 68,289,051 2.3% Human Services 2,071,322,439 2,121,783,957 50,461,518 2.4% Transportation 1,119,353,686 1,267,760,876 148,407,190 13.3% Corrections 737,580,936 742,698,794 5,117,858 0.7% Other Departments 3,624,516,290 3,722,359,309 97,843,019 2.7% 1,058,701,71 9 5.1% Subtotal Department budgets 20,569,633,551 21,628,335,270 Controlled Maintenance Trust Fund 13,000,000 23,097,266 10,097,266 77.7% Other Adjustments 628,687 15,712,476 15,083,789 N/A Other GF Obligations/Expenditures 173,483,361 209,100,446 35,617,085 20.5% Total 20,756,745,599 21,876,245,458 1,119,499,85 9 5.4% Office of State Planning and Budgeting 13
Governor Hickenlooper s 2013-14 Budget Request Table 2: General Fund (by major category) 2012-13 Total GF 2013-14 Total GF 2013-14 Change 2013-14 % Change K-12 Education $3,015,437,087 $3,016,915,356 $1,478,269 0.0% Health Care Policy and Financing 1,857,115,475 2,031,840,027 174,724,552 9.4% Corrections 651,332,037 655,570,996 4,238,959 0.7% Higher Education 619,261,908 656,729,783 37,467,875 6.1% Human Services 642,011,487 680,113,157 38,101,670 5.9% Other Departments 771,304,068 841,468,700 70,164,632 9.1% Subtotal Department budgets 7,556,462,062 7,882,638,019 326,175,957 4.3% Controlled Maintenance Trust Fund 13,000,000 23,097,266 10,097,266 77.7% Other Adjustments 628,687 15,712,476 15,083,789 N/A Other GF Obligations/Expenditures 173,483,361 209,100,446 35,617,085 20.5% Total 7,743,574,110 8,130,548,207 386,974,097 5.0% Office of State Planning and Budgeting 14