Week 10-20 Page 1 of 8 Harvest of Atlantic salmon in Norway continued to grow in week 9. The harvest volume (23 000 tonnes wfe) was up 1000 tonnes from the previous week and 3% higher than in the corresponding week last year. Even though the average harvest weight has climbed over the last 4 weeks, the average weight is still lagging behind last year s weights. Spot prices continued down last week, by 7%. Measured in EUR, spot prices week 9 were 5% higher than in the corresponding week last year. However, measured in NOK spot prices were 2% lower than last year. The increase in both harvest volume and harvest weight have put extra pressure on spot prices for large sized salmon ( + 6 kg). Newly released trade data from Chile show the reason why prices for fresh Chilean fillets on the US market have trended on a high level. The export volume of fresh fillets from Chile to the US market fell by %, to 7 000 tonnes product weight, while the fob export price averaged 11.64 USD/kg, which is record high and up 74% from the corresponding month last year. Overall exports of Atlantic salmon from Chile in January was 43 200 tonnes wfe, down 21% from January last year. The only Chilean market to which export volumes grew was China ( +8%). Forward prices trended slightly down this week despite reports on higher spot prices for the upcoming week. Industry reports point to lower harvest volumes in Norway and weakening of NOK against the EURO as the main reasons for higer price expectations next week. The price forecast presented in the table and graphs below are based on a model combining regression analysis of main factors aff ecting short term market prices and production, and harvest and market supply forecast from production and market models. Please note that forecast output is in Euro. The models do not and cannot include all assumptions and factors. Our price forecast is thus presented with a high/low range, where other assessments, and week to week developments are taken into concideration. PRICE OUTLOOK Summary 4 Week Forecast based on harvest and price forecast models weeks 9 ch w-1 in % ch Y-1 in % Feb ch w-1 Mar ch w-1 Apr ch w-1 May ch w-1 European prices - FPSP - EUR/kilo 7,12 6,67-0,12-7 % 0,30 5 % 7,10 0,00 6,60 0,00 6,90 0,00 6,80 0,00 Exchange rate EUR / NOK 8,86 8,88-0,05 1 % -0,64-7 % 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 European prices - FPSP - NOK/kilo 63,10 59, -1,37-7 % -1,45-2 % 63,90 0,00 59,40 0,00 62,10 0,00 61,20 0,00 HQ: Norway 22 100 23 000 1 000 700 86 900 0 95 100 0 93 500 0 97 300 0 Price Forecast - European "Spot" prices (FPI): 9 EURO / kilo 8,5 8 7,5 7 6,5 6 5,5 5 Fresh salmon 3-6 kilo, fca Oslo 80 NOK / kilo 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 4,5 4 Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 35 30 EUR/NOK Forecast exchange rate: 9.00 Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Actual spot price Kontali Forecast Upper range Lower range Spot 3-6 kg Y-1 Forward Market Prices: 80 NOK / kilo 75 70 65 60 55 Actual spot price Current Forward Prices 50 45 40 Forward Prices W-1 Spot 3-6 kg Y-1 35 30 Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Week 10-20 Page 2 of 8 WEEKLY SALES VOLUMES Historic Harvest Quantity, weekly data/ka models Forecast Harvest Quantity, KA models Norway Av. harvest weight wfe Total HQ Europe HQ NORWAY TOTAL HQ EUROPE Period curr Y ch Y-1 curr Y ch Y-1 curr Y ch Y-1 Period curr Y ch Y-1 curr Y ch Y-1 Nov 111 000 0 % 134 000-2 % Week 10 21 200-6 % -6 % 27 100-1 % -1 % Dec 104 600-6 % 125 700-8 % Week 11 21 700 - % ### 27 600-10 % #### Jan 82 100-5 % 98 200-11 % Week 12 21 100 40 % ### 27 000 36 % #### Week 6 21 700 4 % 4,29-9 % 26 900 5 % Week 13 22 900 % ### 28 800 % #### Week 7 21 500 2 % 4,37-5 % 26 700 4 % Av 4W 21 700 4 % 4 % 27 600 8 % 8 % Week 8 22 000 4 % 4,47-5 % 27 200 5 % Sum 4W 86 900 4 % 4 % 110 500 8 % 8 % Week 9 23 000 3 % 4,95-3 % 28 200 3 % Feb 86 900-1 % -1 % 103 800-3 % -3 %. 4W 22 100 4 % 4,52-5 % 27 300 5 % Mar 95 100-1 % -1 % 119 700 3 % 3 % Sum 4W 88 200 3 % 109 000 4 % Apr 93 500-3 % -3 % 1 900 1 % 1 % Sum 4WY-1 85 300 104 400 May 97 300 5 % 5 % 123 700 9 % 9 % SEA TEMPERATURE INDEX Sea temperatures indices consist of observations from each region. West region consist of Hordaland and Sogn og Fjordane counties, Mid consist of Møre og Romsdal and Sør-Trøndelag and North consist of Nord-Trøndelag and Nordland. Average Norway is the average sea temperatures for all counties involved with salmon farming. 4 ch Sea temp. 6 7 8 9 weeks ch Y-1 YTD Y-1 West 6,9 6,7 6,6 6,7 6,7 1 % 6,9-2 % Mid 6,0 6,0 5,7 5,6 5,8-4 % 6,3-1 % North 5,2 5,1 4,8 5,4 5,1-3 % 5,5 1 % Norway 5,7 5,5 5,2 5,3 5,4 0 % 5,9 1 % 15,0 13,0 11,0 9,0 7,0 5,0 3,0 Norway - average 4 Y Max-Min RAnge 20 20,0 14,0 12,0 10,0 8,0 6,0 4 Y Max-Min RAnge 20 20 Mid 1,0 1 4 7 10 13 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 4,0 1 4 7 10 13 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 19,0,0 15,0 13,0 11,0 9,0 7,0 5,0 4 Y Max-Min RAnge 20 20 West,0 14,0 12,0 10,0 8,0 6,0 4,0 4 Y Max-Min Range 20 20 North 3,0 1 4 7 10 13 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 2,0 1 4 7 10 13 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
Week 10-20 Page 3 of 8 This week the Norwegian government announced that regulation coordinated de-liceing of farmed salmon in sea is replaced by a regulation which sets a lower maximum level of mature sea lice in the period where smolts from wild stocks migrate to the oce an. In the period where smolts migrate to the sea (from week to 21 in Trøndelag and further south and from week 21 to 26 in Nordl and, Troms and Finnmark) the maximum number of mature sea lice per salmon is set to 0.2. While the new regulation is introduced in order to protect wild salmon stocks, it could also lead to change in the production and harvest dynamics in Norway. As the regulation is newly introduced, we have not had the opportunity to look at possible effect s. We will come back to this topic in upcoming reports. PRODUCTION TRENDS NORWAY MONTHLY HARVEST VOL NORWAY Change, monthly harvest vol, YoY 120 000 100 000 80 000 60 000 40 000 20 000 0 S1 14G S0 14G S1 15G S0 15G S1 G 10 % 5 % 0 % -5 % -10 % -15 % -20 % Harvest weight, gutted 4,80 4,70 4,60 4,50 4,40 4,30 4,20 4,10 3,90 May Jun Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 2015/20 20/20 Development, Harvest ready biomass (+ 4 kg) 250 000 200 000 150 000 100 000 50 000 Harvestable Biomasse Estimat Y-1 Biomass Development, oldest Generations, Norway Total Biomass of Forecast Q+1 S1 15G vs S1 14G S0 15G vs S0 14G Generations for Harvest Forecast W-1 Change Forecast W-1 Biomass, oldest Generation No ind weigth Volume No ind weigth Volume No ind weigth Volume No ind weigth Volume 1st of Jan 20 15 800 4,66 73 700 82 500 3,70 305 200 98 300 3,85 378 900 98 300 3,85 378 900 No ind weigth Vol. 1st of Jan 20 11 100 4,59 51 000 82 800 3,74 309 900 93 900 3,84 360 900 93 900 3,84 360 900 0,0 % 0,0 % 0,0 % Balance Jan 20-30 % -31 % 0 % 2 % -4 % -5 % -4 % -5 % 1st of Feb 20 10 400 4,88 50 700 69 100 3,97 274 300 79 500 4,09 325 000 79 500 4,09 325 000 1st of Feb 20 8 400 4,86 40 800 68 400 4,03 275 700 76 800 4,12 3 500 76 800 4,12 3 500 0,0 % 0,0 % 0,0 % Balance Feb 20-19 % -20 % -1 % 1 % -3 % -3 % -3 % -3 % 1st of Mar 20 6 700 5,18 34 700 54 500 4,18 227 900 61 200 4,29 262 600 61 200 4,29 262 600 1st of Mar 20 5 900 5,15 30 400 53 200 4,29 228 000 59 100 4,37 258 400 59 100 4,37 258 400 0,0 % 0,0 % 0,0 % Balance Mar 20-12 % -12 % -2 % 0 % -3 % -2 % -3 % -2 %
Week 10-20 Page 4 of 8 PRODUCTION TRENDS EUROPE MONTHLY HARVEST VOL EUROPE ex Norway (UK, Faroe Is, Ireland) 30 000 IE FO UK 25 000 20 000 15 000 10 000 5 000 0 30 % 25 % 20 % 15 % 10 % 5 % 0 % -5 % -10 % -15 % -20 % -25 % Change, monthly harvest vol, YoY Development avg weight, harvest quantity EUROPE ex. Norway (UK, Faroe Is, Ireland) 4,70 4,60 4,50 4,40 4,30 4,20 4,10 May Jun Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 2015/20 20/20 Biomass Development, oldest Generations, Europe ex. Norway (UK, Faroe Is, Ireland) Total Biomass of Generations for Forecast Q+1 S1 15G vs S1 14G S0 15G vs S0 14G Harvest Forecast W-1 Change Forecast W-1 Biomass, oldest Generation No ind weigth Volume No ind weigth Volume No ind weigth Volume No ind weigth Volume No ind weigth Volume 1st of Jan 20 3 300 4,82 15 900 14 800 3,71 54 900 18 100 3,91 70 800 18 100 3,91 70 800 1st of Jan 20 4 500 4,87 21 900 500 3,92 64 700 21 000 4,12 86 600 21 000 4,12 86 600 0,0 % 0,0 % 0,0 % Balance Jan 20 36 % 38 % 11 % 18 % % 22 % % 22 % 1st of Feb 20 2 000 4,85 9 700 12 600 3,88 48 900 14 600 4,01 58 600 14 600 4,01 58 600 1st of Feb 20 2 900 5,21 15 100 15 000 4,27 64 000 900 4,42 79 100 800 4,39 78 200 0,6 % 0,6 % 1,2 % Balance Feb 20 45 % 56 % 19 % 31 % 23 % 35 % 22 % 33 % 1st of Mar 20 1 000 5,10 5 100 10 400 4,05 42 100 11 400 4,14 47 200 11 400 4,14 47 200 1st of Mar 20 1 800 5,39 9 700 13 000 4,60 59 800 14 800 4,70 69 500 14 200 4,62 65 600 4,2 % 1,7 % 5,9 % Balance Mar 20 80 % 90 % 25 % 42 % 30 % 47 % 25 % 39 % PRODUCTION TRENDS AMERICAS/AUSTRALIA MONTHLY HARVEST VOL AMERICAS/AUSTRALIA 80 000 Australia North-America Chile 70 000 60 000 50 000 40 000 30 000 20 000 10 000 0 Change, monthly harvest vol, YoY 20 % 15 % 10 % 5 % 0 % -5 % -10 % -15 % -20 % -25 % -30 %
Week 10-20 Page 5 of 8 HISTORICAL ESTIMATED MARGIN DEVELOMPENT Margin development fca Oslo vs Retail France Margin development fca Oslo vs Wholesale France 3Y range 3Y 20 3,00 5,00 2,00 1,00 0,00 3,00-1,00 2,00 3Y range 3 Y 20 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51-2,00 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 HISTORICAL MARKET PRICES Norway Fresh Whole average - NQSALMON NOK/KG 85,00 75,00 65,00 55,00 45,00 35,00 25,00 3Y Range 3Y 20 20 15,00 1 5 9 13 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 Japan fresh whole salmon Norwegian fob export price NOK/KG 100,00 90,00 80,00 70,00 60,00 50,00 40,00 30,00 3Y Range 3Y Average 20 20 20,00 1 5 9 13 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 Price Whole Salmon - Retail France EUR/KG 1 13,00 12,00 11,00 3Y Range 3Y 20 20 1 5 9 13 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 Price Fresh Norwegian Salmon 4-5kg -Wholesale Rungis EUR/KG #### 5,00 3,00 3Y Range 3Y 20 20 1 5 9 13 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 USA fresh fillets Chilean D-trim 1-1,5 kg fob - Miami USD/KG 1 13,00 12,00 11,00 Range 3Y 3Y 20 20 5,00 1 5 9 13 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 USA fresh salmon 5-6 kg, fob North East USD/KG 5,00 Range 3Y 3Y 20 20 1 5 9 13 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49
Week 10-20 Page 6 of 8 MARKET TRENDS - MARKET VALUE INDEX (MVI) Projection of market value is based on forecasted supply volume and average price level for the last 4 months. See definitions for construction of MVI. US Atlantic salmon index (in USD) Index ch Y-1 Q1 20 2 035 22 % Q2 20 2 261 39 % Q3 20 2 124 46 % Oct 20 2 141 55 % Nov 20 2 2 55 % Dec 20 2 475 64 % Jan 20 2 7 57 % 2800 2600 2400 2200 2000 1800 00 1400 1200 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 01 US value index Value Index Y- 1 Rolling 15 M EU Atlantic salmon index (in EUR) Index ch Y-1 Q1 20 4 741 30 % Q2 20 5 285 43 % Q3 20 5 498 40 % Oct 20 6 071 35 % Nov 20 6 346 47 % Dec 20 6 961 38 % Jan 20 5 411 27 % RU Atlantic salmon index (in RUB) Index ch Y-1 Q1 20 30 156 15 % Q2 20 21 808-24 % Q3 20 25 248-32 % Oct 20 46 783 26 % Nov 20 40 035 1 % Dec 20 39 838 59 % Jan 20 28 742 4 % 0 6,500 0 5,500 5,000 4,500 0 3,500 3,000 55,000 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 01 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 01 EU value index Value Index Y-1 Rolling 15 M Russia value Index Value Index Y-1 Rolling 15 M JP Atlantic salmon index (in JPY) 0 Index ch Y-1 0 #DIV/0! JP value index Q1 20 5 067 49 % 0 Q2 20 4 459 49 % 5,000 Value Index Q3 20 4 919 13 % #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Y-1 ## Oct 20 4 923 2 % 0 Nov 20 5 319 % Rolling 3,000 Dec 20 7 989 22 % 15 M Jan 20 6 4 21 % 2,000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 01 MARKET SUPPLY TRENDS - VOLUMES EU USA RUSSIA JAPAN Others WW wfe / 1000t wfe / 1000t wfe / 1000t wfe / 1000t wfe / 1000t wfe / 1000t curr Y ch Y-1 curr Y ch Y-1 curr Y ch Y-1 curr Y ch Y-1 curr Y ch Y-1 curr Y ch Y-1 Q1 15 247 14 % 100 11 % 20-39 % 12-9 % 157 14 % 535 10 % Q2 15 261 4 % 107 14 % 27-20 % 12-31 % 146-5 % 553 1 % Q3 15 276 5 % 102 11 % 32-15 % 7 % 4 5 % 590 5 % Q4 15 304 5 % 107 % 27-35 % 20 13 % 5 6 % 633 5 % Q1 249 1 % 114 15 % 21 5 % 20 60 % 159 2 % 633 18 % Q2 250-4 % 106-1 % 14-51 % 14 % 145-1 % 528-4 % Q3 274-1 % 97-5 % 19-41 % -1 % 145-11 % 590 5 % Jun 15 91 9 % 37 23 % 10-18 % 4-31 % 50-2 % 192 5 % Jul 15 85 5 % 33 3 % 12-10 % 5-5 % 55 13 % 189 5 % Aug 15 87-1 % 34 14 % 11 0 % 6 24 % 53 5 % 191 4 % Sep 15 104 12 % 35 % 9-32 % 5 4 % 56-2 % 210 5 % Oct 15 108 5 % 34 6 % 9-51 % 6 11 % 59 1 % 2-1 % Nov 15 98 7 % 36 26 % 11-22 % 6-2 % 59 10 % 210 8 % Dec 15 97 5 % 37 18 % 7 - % 8 29 % 57 8 % 206 8 % Jan 79 0 % 37 8 % 7 30 % 5 23 % 54 3 % 182 4 % Feb 80 9 % 38 28 % 6-7 % 6 49 % 53 5 % 183 12 % Mar 90-5 % 40 10 % 8-1 % 5 27 % 53-3 % 196-1 % Apr 86 4 % 38 6 % 4-48 % 5 22 % 51 6 % 185 3 % May 84-4 % 34 2 % 4-53 % 4 15 % 47-2 % 4-4 % Jun 80-12 % 34-10 % 5-50 % 5 10 % 47-6 % 9-12 % Jul 79-7 % 30-8 % 5-55 % 5-2 % 42-23 % 1-15 % Aug 90 4 % 35 2 % 6-43 % 6-3 % 51-2 % 189-1 % Sep 105 0 % 32-8 % 7-23 % 5 3 % 51-9 % 200-4 % Oct 93-14 % 32-7 % 8-13 % 5-18 % 49 - % 187-14 % Nov 97-2 % 31-14 % 7-33 % 6-2 % 53-10 % 193-8 % Dec 91-7 % 33-11 % 7-2 % 8-4 % 57-1 % 194-6 % Jan 71-11 % 34-7 % 5-27 % 5 0 % 47-13 % 2-11 %
Week 10-20 Page 7 of 8 MAIN CURRENCY TRENDS NOK/EUR 9,80 9,60 9,40 9,20 8,80 EUR/USD 0,96 0,94 0,92 0,90 0,88 8,60 20 20 0,86 15 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 20 20 NOK/USD 8,80 8,60 8,40 GBP/EUR 0,95 0,90 0,85 0,80 0,75 8,20 0,70 0,65 15 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 20 20 0,60 15 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 20 20 NOK/100JPY 7,80 7,60 NOK/GBP 13,00 12,50 12,00 11,50 7,40 11,00 7,20 10,50 15 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 20 20 9,50 15 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 20 20 RUB/USD 81,00 JPY/USD 1,00 7 71,00 6 113,00 61,00 5 15 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 1 15 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 20 20 20 20
Week 10-20 Page 8 of 8 Definitions / Abbreviations wfe Whole Fish Eqvivalent; equal to round harvest weight (ex blood) Biomass Live stock G Generation of salmon S 1 Smolt released into the sea in spring - after 1-2 years in landbased smolt plant S 0 Smolt released into the sea in the autumn - after less than a year in landbased smolt plant Harvest ready biomass Sea temperature HQ HQ Forecast Europe t metric tonnes av average Q Quarter Y Year m Month m-1 Previous month w Week w-1 Prevoius week YoY Change Year over Year NQSALMON NQSALMON 3-6 FPI FP FWD European prices Fca Oslo Vol HOG head on, gutted NO Norway RU Russia JP Japan EU market EU 27 USA NE An estimated share of the biomass which based on average weight of the various fish groups, has reached a size qualifying as harvest ready (4kg wfe) presented in degrees celsius Harvest quantity Harvest forecast based on Kontali production models Europe related to production; European salmon farming countries Norwegian first hand prices for fresh gutted superior quality salmon,delivered fca Oslo, collected and presented by NASDAQ OMX The above mentioned price quotation for salmon size 3-6 kilo FishPool Index FishPool forward prices Equal to Fish Pool Index which is composed by 3 indexes (of which 1 is European purchasing prices) Free Carrier (inco term); sales price for salmon delivered in Oslo volume USA North East coast (price quotations on US East coast) MVI EUR NOK JPY RUB GBP USD Market Value Index; measures total market supply value, in market currency, based on supply volume from the main supplying countries and a composition of relevant market prices for each market. Estimated Future MVI; monthly price input based on KA price forecast EURO Norwegian Krone Japanese Yen Russian Rubles British Pound Sterling United States Dollar Disclamer The report/analysis do not contain any specific advice in relation to particular financial instruments, issuers of such or transactions and the report do not constitute investment advice or investment recommendations according to the Norwegian Securities Trading Act of 29. June 2007. The Buyer bears all responsibility for act taken or omissions made by the Buyer on the basis of the reports. Kontali Analyse (KA) shall not be held liable for any act or omission or consequences of any transactions or decisions allegedly made by the Buyer as a result of any information provided by KA to the Buyer. KA shall not be liable for direct or indirect errors in the report or any other analysis or in its conclusions and advice. #### The Buyer may use the report for its own purposes and not contrary to this clause or in any other disloyal manner. The Week report18 may not without the prior written consent of KA be reproduced, published or summarised for distribution or incorporation into a larger report or missive or otherwise relayed or distributed whether internally or to a third party.