Outlook for Physical Gold & Silver Demand Philip Newman Denver Gold Group, European Gold Forum 7 th May 214
About Metals Focus Truly independent precious metals consultancy Experienced team of precious metals specialists, 16-strong, based in London, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Mumbai, Johannesburg & Istanbul Not just desk-based research extensive travel programme, with regular visits to key market participants in major markets
Outlook For Physical Gold Demand
Physical Gold Demand Profile Two key categories are jewellery & physical investment. The largest category is jewellery consumption, dominated by China & India, with ~6% share in 213. These two markets continued to grow while western demand suffered. However, the latter now coming back. Physical investment also dominated by emerging markets, with ~8% share in 213.
Hong Kong Bullion Imports* Tonnes 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Bullion Imports US$/oz US$/oz 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 Mar-8 Mar-9 Mar-1 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 *Excluding imports from China; Source: GTIS
Shanghai Gold Exchange Premium/Discount, US$/oz Premium Surges During H1.13 Markedly Different in Early 214 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1-1 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13-1 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 Source: SGE
India: Import Restrictions Rising current account deficit & huge pressure on rupee Started in Jan-13, with increase in import duties By August, import duties raised on bullion & doré imports Most importantly, 8:2 rule introduced Market now looking for post-election change in import regulations
Tonnes 4 35 Risk to the physical gold market: official India imports had collapsed 8:2 introduced 3 25 2 15 1 5 Mar-1 Dec-1 Sep-11 Jun-12 Mar-13 Dec-13 Source: GTIS
But unofficial imports have jumped From Pakistan From China/Thailand From Dubai Loco-Mumbai Premium ($/oz) 2 From Sri Lanka 1 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14
Physical Investment: Dominance of Emerging Markets Tonnes 12 1 Emerging Western China/India account for half the global total 8 6 4 2 212 213 214F Source: Metals Focus
China gets in while Western investors get out* Tonnes 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Comex futures liquidations ETF liquidations Increase In Net Imports to the East * January-December 213 flow Source: Bloomberg, GTIS, Metals Focus
Quarterly Gold Price Outlook: High:Low:Average US$/oz 145 Spot/Average High Low 14 135 13 125 12 115 11 15 1 Jun-13 Oct-13 Feb-14 Jun-14 Oct-14 Feb-15 Source: Metals Focus, Bloomberg
Outlook For Physical Silver Demand
Physical Silver Demand Profile Industrial fabrication, now enjoying an upturn, accounts for roughly half of fabrication demand. Next largest is jewellery, with the US by far the most significant consumer. Physical investment dominated by four markets: India, the US, Germany & China. Surged to record levels in 213.
Importance of Industrial Demand Accounts for around 5% of global silver fabrication. Difficult to thrift out in the short term. Uses are extremely varied. As such, there is the potential for a downturn in one sector to be partially offset by an upturn elsewhere. Key players dominated by the US & East Asia
Photovoltaics: A Relatively Bright Outlook Stocks of finished products have been depleted. 12 Installations (GW) Silver/GW (Index) 4 However, pressure remains in Europe to reduce government debt. Spain, for example is replacing its Feed-in-Tariff. Even so, Japan emerging as a new spotlight for PV demand. Grid parity slowly becoming a reality. 1 8 6 4 2 3 2 1 21 212 214 Source: Metals Focus, European Photovoltaic Industry Association
Tonnes 45 US Powder Exports*, signs now emerging of an upturn 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 *Calculated quantity; Source: GTIS, Metals Focus
Tonnes 45 Japanese Silver Powder Exports*, going from strength to strength 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 *Calculated quantity; Source: GTIS, Metals Focus
Tonnes 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Chinese Silver Powder Imports*, a gradual upturn taking hold *Calculated quantity; Source: GTIS, Metals Focus
The Ethylene Oxide Market: A success story for silver Near uninterrupted period of growth over past 3 years. 3, 2,5 S/E. Asia, M.East Other Further, solid gains forecast for EO tonnage. Silver offtake expected to rise at a slightly faster rate as silver offtake per plant grows. Not all about new demand. Change-outs of greater importance, tapping into a significant installed base of silver. 2, 1,5 1, 5-5 -1, Changes in EO Capacity, Tonnes 28 21 212 214 Source: Metals Focus, PCI Global
Growth in Western Silver Jewellery Demand Unlike gold, silver jewellery demand is dominated by western markets, notably the US. 4 35 3 25 Silver Gold US Jewellery Imports, Index, 2=1 US demand has benefited from substitution at the expense of gold. With gold prices now weaker some signs of a shift back to gold. 2 15 1 5 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 Source: Metals Focus, GTIS
US$ Million US$ Million Benefits for Key Silver Jewellery Exporting Countries 5 4 THAI EXPORTS 3 2 1 3 25 2 15 1 5 Source: GTIS CHINESE EXPORTS Mar-9 Nov-9 Jul-1 Mar-11 Nov-11 Jul-12 Mar-13 Nov-13
Emerging Market Physical Investment driven by India, can it be sustained in 214? Tonnes 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Source: GTIS
US Silver Eagle Sales, enjoying a renewed uptrend Million ounces 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Mar-8 Mar-9 Mar-1 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Source: US Mint
Quarterly Silver Price Outlook: High:Low:Average US$/oz 27 Spot/Average High Low 25 23 21 19 17 15 Jun-13 Oct-13 Feb-14 Jun-14 Oct-14 Feb-15 Source: Metals Focus, Bloomberg
For information about our products & services contact Charles de Meester charles.demeester@metalsfocus.com Disclaimer & Copyright Although every effort has been made to undertake this work with care and diligence, Metals Focus Ltd cannot guarantee the accuracy of any forecasts or assumptions. Nothing contained in this presentation constitutes an offer to buy or sell securities or commodities and nor does it constitute advice in relation to the buying or selling of investments. It is published only for informational purposes. Metals Focus Ltd does not accept responsibility for any losses or damages arising directly or indirectly from the use of this presentation.