Monetary Policy Report / Charts
Chart. Yields on -year government bonds. Percent. January June Greece (left-hand scale) Germany Spain Italy 8 7 Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Source: Thomson Reuters
Chart. Developments in equity markets. Index. January 8 =. January 8 June 8 8 US Norway Jan-8 Jul-8 Jan-9 Jul-9 Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Source: Thomson Reuters Euro area
Chart. CDS premiums in Europe. Percent. January 8 June Itraxx-government Itraxx-finance Itraxx-corporate Jan-8 Jul-8 Jan-9 Jul-9 Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Source: Bloomberg
Chart. Projections of GDP growth for and. Annual change. Percent - Euro area US Emerging markets Sources: IMF, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank Trading partners -
Chart. Key rates and estimated forward rates as at 9 March and June.¹) Percent. January 8 December ²) US Euro area³) UK MPR / MPR / 8 9 ) Broken lines show estimated forward rates as at 9 March. Thin lines show forward rates as at June. Forward rates are based on Overnight Index Swap (OIS) rates ) Daily figures from January 8 and quarterly figures from Q ) EONIA in euro area from Q Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank
Chart. Difference between -month money market rate and expected key rates¹). Percentage points. -day moving average. January 8 June US Euro area Norway Jan-8 Jul-8 Jan-9 Jul-9 Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- ) Expected key rates are derived from Overnight Index Swap (OIS) rates. Norges Bank's projections for market key rate expectations are used for Norway Sources: Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
Chart.7 Key policy rate, premium in the money market¹), risk premium -year covered bonds²) and weighted average lending rate on new residential mortgages³). Percent. January 8 June 9 8 7 Risk premium -year covered bonds Premium in the money market Key policy rate Bank lending rate (new residential mortgages) Jan-8 Jul-8 Jan-9 Jul-9 Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- ) -month NIBOR (effective) ) Indicative risk premium on -year covered bonds ) Nominal interest rate on new residential mortgages of NOK m within % of purchase price with variable interest rate. Figures for the largest banks, weighted according to market share Sources: Norsk familieøkonomi AS, DnB Nor Markets, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 9 8 7
Chart.8 Key policy rate, premium on the money market rate¹), risk premium on -year bank bonds²) and average interest rate on corporate loans. Percent. January 8 June 9 8 7 Risk premium -year bank bonds Premium in the money market Key policy rate Average interest rate on corporate loans Jan-8 Jul-8 Jan-9 Jul-9 Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- ) -month NIBOR (effective) ) Indicative risk premium on -year bank bonds Sources: DnB Nor Markets, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 9 8 7
Chart.9 GDP growth for Norway and the euro area. Annual change. Percent. - ¹) 7 7 Norway Euro area - - - - - 8 ) Projections for Sources: European Commission, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank -
Chart. Credit growth¹) and house prices. -month change. Percent. January - May ²) - - House prices Credit growth - - - 8 ) From January the Norwegian standard for institutional sector grouping was changed. For credit growth this implies a break in the series from March ) House prices up to and including May, credit growth up to and including April. Sources: Statistics Norway, the real estate sector (NEF, EFF, Finn.no and ECON Pöyry) and Norges Bank -
Chart. Consumer prices. -month change. Percent. January May 7. 7. CPI % trimmed mean CPI-ATE¹) CPI-FW³) CPIXE²) CPIM⁴).. -. -. 7 8 9 ) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products ) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices. Real time figures. See Norges Bank Staff Memo 7/8 and /9 ) CPI adjusted for frequency of price changes. See Norges Bank Economic commentaries 7/9 ) Model-based indicator of underlying inflation. See Norges Bank Economic commentaries / Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Chart. Inflation. Moving -year average¹) and variation²) in CPI³). Percent. 98 8 Variation Inflation target CPI 8 98 98 99 99 ) The moving average is calculated years back ) The band around the CPI is the variation in the CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products in the average period, measured by +/- one standard deviation ) Estimate based on CPI projections in this Report Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Chart. Expected consumer price inflation and years ahead.¹) Percent. Q Q Expected inflation years ahead Expected inflation years ahead.. 7 8 9 ) Average of expectations of employer/employee organisations and economists (financial industry experts and academia) Sources: TNS Gallup and Perduco
Chart. Difference between -month money market rate and expected key rates.¹) Percentage points. 8 Q Q. Premium MPR / Premium MPR /... 8 9 ) Norges Bank's projections from Q Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
Chart. Household debt burden¹) and interest burden²). Percent. Quarterly figures. 988 Q Q 8 Interest burden (left-hand scale) Debt burden (right-hand scale) 988 99 99 8 ) Loan debt as a percentage of disposable income adjusted for estimated reinvested dividends for and redemption/reduction of equity capital for ) Interest expenses after tax as a percentage of disposable income adjusted for estimated reinvested dividends for and redemption/reduction of equity capital for plus interest expenses Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Chart.a Projected key policy rate in the baseline scenario with probability distribution. Percent. 8 Q Q 7 % % 7% 9% 7 8 9 Source: Norges Bank
Chart.b Projected output gap¹) in the baseline scenario with probability distribution. Percent. 8 Q Q - - - % % 7% 9% - - - - 8 9 ) The output gap measures the percentage deviation between mainland GDP and projected potential mainland GDP Source: Norges Bank -
Chart.c Projected CPI in the baseline scenario with probability distribution. Four-quarter change. Percent. 8 Q Q % % 7% 9% - 8 9 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank -
Chart.d Projected CPIXE¹) in the baseline scenario with probability distribution. Four-quarter change. Percent. 8 Q Q % % 7% 9% - - 8 9 ) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices. As from August 8, the CPIXE is a real-time series. See Norges Bank Staff Memo 7/8 and /9 Source: Norges Bank
Chart.7 Interval for the key policy rate at the end of each strategy period, actual developments and projected key policy rate in the baseline scenario. Percent. January 8 December 8 8 7 MPR / 7 /7 /8/8 /8 MPR / MPR / 7 Dec 8 / / / / / / /9 /9 /9 / / 8 9 Source: Norges Bank
Chart.8 Three-month money market rate differential between Norway¹) and trading partners and the import-weighted exchange rate index (I-)²). January December ³) 8 88 9 9 97 I- (left-hand scale) - -month rate differential (right-hand scale) 7 9 ) Key policy rate in the baseline scenario plus premiums in the Norwegian money market. The calculations are based on the assumption that announced interest rate changes are priced into the money market ) A positive slope denotes a stronger krone exchange rate ) Monthly figures from January and Norges Bank projections from Q Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank -
Chart.9 Projected inflation¹) and output gap in the baseline scenario. Percent. 8 Q Q - - - Output gap (left-hand scale) CPIXE (right-hand scale) - - 8 9 ) CPIXE: CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices. As from August 8, the CPIXE is a real-time series. See Norges Bank Staff Memo 7/8 and /9 Source: Norges Bank
Chart. Consumer confidence. Seasonally adjusted net figures. Q - Q - - - Norway Euro area¹) - - - - 8 ) For the euro area Q is the average for April and May. Sources: TNS Gallup and Thomson Reuters -
Chart. Purchasing managers index (PMI) for manufacturing. Diffusion index around. Seasonally adjusted net figures. January - May 7 Norway Euro area 7 7 8 9 Source: Thomson Reuters and Bloomberg
Chart. Key policy rate in the baseline scenario and in the alternative scenarios. Percent. 8 Q Q 8 7 Higher growth Lower growth Baseline scenario 8 7 % % 7% 9% 8 9 Source: Norges Bank
Chart.a Key policy rate. Percent. 8 Q Q 8 7 Criterion Criteria & Criteria,& 8 7 8 9 Source: Norges Bank
Chart.b Output gap. Percent. 8 Q Q - - - Criterion Criteria & Criteria,& - - - - 8 9 Source: Norges Bank -
Chart.c CPIXE¹). Four-quarter change. Percent. 8 Q Q.... Criterion Criteria & Criteria,&.... 8 9 ) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices. As from August 8, the CPIXE is a real-time series. See Norges Bank Staff Memo 7/8 and /9 Source: Norges Bank
Chart. Key policy rate and calculations based on simple monetary policy rules.¹) Percent. 8 Q Q 8 7 8 7 Taylor rule Growth rule Rule with foreign interest rates Key policy rate in the baseline scenario Model-robust interest rate rule 8 9 ) The calculations are based on Norges Bank s projections for the output gap, growth gap, consumer prices and -month money market rates among trading partners. To ensure comparability with the key policy rate, the simple rules are adjusted for risk premiums in -month money market rates Source: Norges Bank
Chart. Three-month money market rates in the baseline scenario¹) and estimated forward rates²). Percent. 8 Q Q 8 8 7 Estimated forward rates Money market rates in the baseline scenario 7 8 9 ) Key policy rate in the baseline scenario plus premiums in the Norwegian money market. The calculations are based on the assumption that announced interest rate changes are priced into the money market. ) Forward rates are based on money market rates and interest rate swaps. The blue band shows the highest and lowest forward rates in the period June June Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
Chart. Key policy rate and interest rate developments that follow from Norges Bank s average pattern of interest rate setting.¹) Percent. Q Q 8 8 7 9% confidence interval Key policy rate in baseline scenario 7 7 8 9 ) Interest rate movements are explained by developments in inflation, mainland GDP growth, wage growth and -month money market rates among trading partners. The equation is estimated over the period 999 Q Q. See Staff Memo /8 for further discussion Source: Norges Bank
Chart Key policy rate in the baseline scenario in MPR / with probability distribution and key policy rate in the baseline scenario in MPR / (red line). Percent. 8 Q Q 9 9 8 7 % % 7% 9% 8 7 8 9 Source: Norges Bank
Chart Factors behind changes in the interest rate forecast since MPR /. Accumulated contribution. Percentage points. Q Q Prices and costs Capacity utilisation Exchange rate Interest rates abroad Money market premiums Change in the interest rate forecast Growth abroad - - - Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Source: Norges Bank -
Chart. Quarterly GDP growth. Percent. Q Q - - Global Norway's main trading partners - 7 8 9 - - - Sources: IMF, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
Chart. Manufacturing PMIs. Diffusion index centred around. January May 7 US Euro area Sweden China UK 7 7 8 9 Source: Thomson Reuters
Chart. Yield spreads against German -year government bonds. Percentage points. January 8 June 8 8 7 Italy Spain 7-8 9 - Source: Thomson Reuters
Chart. Bank lending conditions. Net balance¹). Q Q 8 - - US Euro area Emerging markets To enterprises To households 8 - - - 7 8 9 - ) Values above indicate tighter lending conditions Sources: Thomson Reuters, Institute of International Finance and Norges Bank
Chart. US labour market. Unemployment as a percentage of labour force and employment in millions. Seasonally adjusted. January May 8 9 8 7 Unemployment rate (left-hand scale) Employment (right-hand scale) 7 8 9 Source: Thomson Reuters 8
Chart. Consumer prices in advanced economies and emerging markets.¹) -month change. Percent. January April 8 Advanced economies Emerging market economies Headline Core inflation 8-7 8 9 ) GDP-weighted (PPP). Advanced economies: Australia, Canada, euro area, Japan, UK and US. Emerging markets: Argentina, Brazil, India, Indonesia, China, Mexico, Russia, South Africa, South Korea and Turkey. Sources: CEIC, IMF, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank -
Chart.7 Unit labour costs. Total economy. Four-quarter change. Percent. Q Q 8 US Euro area Sweden UK 8 - - - 7 8 9 - Source: OECD
Chart.8 Oil price (Brent Blend) and prices for Norwegian petroleum exports¹). USD/barrel. January December 8 Oil price Futures Futures as at MPR / Petroleum price 8 8 ) Weighted average of Norwegian crude oil and gas exports Sources: Statistics Norway,Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
Chart.9 Prices for coal, crude oil and natural gas. USD per MMBTU. January April Coal US¹) Oil¹) Gas UK¹) Gas US¹) Gas Russia Gas Norway Futures prices 7 9 ) For June, calculated as daily average Sources: IMF, Thomson Reuters, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Chart. Commodity prices. USD. Index, January =. January December 7 Aluminium Copper Wheat Cotton Futures prices 7 7 9 Sources: CME Group and Thomson Reuters
Chart. CPI, CPI-ATE ) and CPIXE ). -month change. Percent. January 9 December ) CPI CPI-ATE CPIXE 9 ) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products ) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices. Real-time figures. See Norges Bank Staff Memo 7/8 and /9 ) Projections for June December (broken lines). Monthly figures to September, then quarterly figures Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Chart. CPI-ATE ). Total and by supplier sector. -month change. Percent. January 9 December CPI-ATE Imported consumer goods Domestically produced goods and services³).. -. 9 -. ) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products ) Projections for June December (broken lines). Monthly figures to September, then quarterly figures ) Norges Bank's estimates Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Chart. Indicator of external price impulses to imported consumer goods measured in foreign currency. Annual change. Percent. ).. -. -. - - -. 8 -. ) Projections for Source: Norges Bank
Chart. CPI-ATE ). Actual figures, baseline scenario and projections from SAM ) with fan chart. Four-quarter change. Percent. Q Q ) MPR / % % 7% 9% SAM CPI-ATE Mar- Sep- Mar- Sep- ) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products ) System for averaging models ) Projections for Q Q (broken lines) Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Chart. GDP mainland Norway ) and Norges Bank's regional network's indicator of change in production past three months and expected change in production next six months. Percent. Q Q ) Regional network Mainland GDP growth - 7 8 9 ) Seasonally adjusted quarterly change. Volume ) Latest observation in the regional network is May. Latest GDP observation is Q, projections for Q Q (broken line) Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank -
Chart. Terms of trade. Index. Q =. Q Q Mainland Norway Total 9 9 7 8 9 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Chart.7 GDP mainland Norway. Actual figures, baseline scenario and projections from SAM ) with fan chart. Four-quarter change. Volume. Seasonally adjusted. Percent. Q Q ) 7 % % 7% 9% 7 MPR / SAM Mainland GDP Mar- Sep- Mar- Sep- Mar- Sep- ) System for averaging models ) Projections for Q Q (broken lines) Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Chart.8 Actual labour force trend and the labour force following demographical changes ). Seasonally adjusted figures. In s. January December ) 8 8 Actual labour force, trend 7 Labour force with participation rates at -levels Labour force with participation rates at 7-levels 7 7 8 9 ) The labour force based on constant participation rates at /7-levels ) Latest observation is March, projections for April December (broken lines) Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Chart.9 Capacity constraints and labour supply ) reported by the regional network and estimated output gap. Percent. Q Q - Output gap MPR / (left-hand scale) Capacity constraints (right-hand scale) Labour supply (right-hand scale) 8 7-7 8 9 ) Share of contacts that will have some or considerable problems accommodating an increase in demand and the share of contacts where production is constrained by labour supply Source: Norges Bank
Chart. Change in production past three months and expected change in production next six months. Index ). February November ) - Domestically oriented manufacturing Suppliers to the petroleum industry - - Export industry Construction - 7 8 9 - - ) The scale runs from - to +, where - denotes a sharp fall and + denotes strong growth. See article "Norges Bank's regional network: fresh and useful information" in Economic Bulletin /9 for further information ) Latest observation in the regional network is May Source: Norges Bank
Chart. Index of household consumption of goods. Seasonally adjusted volume index. =. January 8 April 8 9 Source: Statistics Norway
Chart. Household saving and net lending as a share of disposable income. Percent. 99 ) Saving ratio excl. dividend income Saving ratio, adjusted ²) Net lending ratio excl. dividend income - - - - - 99 99 8 ) Projections for (broken lines) ) Adjusted for estimated reinvested dividend income for and redemption/reduction of equity capital for Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank -
Chart. Household consumption ) and real disposable income ). Annual change. Percent. ) 8 8 Household consumption Household real disposable income 7 9 ) Includes consumption among non-profit organisations. Volume ) Excluding dividend income. Including income in non-profit organisations ) Projections for (broken line) Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Chart. Difference between number of housing completions and increase in households, and population growth. ) - - - - Difference between number of housing completions and increase in households (left-hand scale) Population growth (right-hand scale) 8 8 7 ) Projections for and Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Chart. Investment in mainland Norway excluding public sector. Constant 9 prices. In billions of NOK. 99 ) Business Housing 99 997 7 ) Projections for Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Chart. Employment ) and Norges Bank's regional network's indicator of change in employment and expected change in employment next three months. Percent. Q Q ) Regional network Employment growth - - - 7 8 9 ) Seasonally adjusted quarterly change in Quarterly National Accounts ) Latest observation in the regional network is May. Latest observation in the Quarterly National Accounts is Q, projections for Q Q (broken line) Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank -
Chart.7 Registered unemployment. Percentage of labour force. Seasonally adjusted. Q Q ) 7 8 9 ) Projections for Q Q (broken line) Sources: Norwegian Labour and Welfare Service, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Chart.8 Annual wage growth and estimated wage growth from Norges Bank's regional network. Percent. 7 Regional network November (previous year) Regional network May Regional network November Regional network January Regional network September Annual wage growth 7 7 8 9 Sources: Norges Bank and the Norwegian Technical Calculation Committee for Wage Settlements (TBU)
Chart.9 General government expenditure as share of GDP mainland Norway. 98 ) 7 7 98 988 99 99 997 9 ) Projection for Source: Ministry of Finance
Chart. Structural non-oil deficit and expected real return on the Government Pension Fund Global. Constant prices. In billions of NOK. ) 8 8 Structural, non-oil deficit Expected real return 9 9 7 9 ) Projections for Sources: Ministry of Finance and Norges Bank
Chart. Petroleum investment. Constant 9 prices. In billions of NOK. 99 ) 7 7 99 99 998 7 7 7 ) Projections for Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank