Business Cycle Index July 2010 Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices, Ministry of Commerce, Tel. 0 2507 5805, Fax. 0 2507 5806, www.price.moc.go.th Thailand economic still expansion. Medium-run Leading Index is composed of seven leading indicators in July 2010 stood at 109.2 (2002=100), decreased 2.5 percent from previous month, because five of seven indicators decreased, from largest to smallest were value of authorized capital of newly registered businesses, growth rate of Industrial Material Price Index, sign percentage inverted of Japan Leading Index, USA Leading Index and sign differential inverted of average inter bank overnight lending rates. There are two indicators increased were construction areas permitted in Bangkok metropolis and growth rate of broad money. The six month smoothed annualized growth rate increasing by 0.3 percent. Short Leading Index is composed of six leading indicators in July 2010 stood at 119.4 (2002=100), decreased 0.3 percent from previous month, because two of six indicators decreased, from largest to smallest were value of authorized capital of newly registered businesses and real export value (in Baht term). There are four indicators increased were number of foreign tourist, stock exchange of Thailand index, construction areas permitted in Bangkok metropolis and narrow money. The six month smoothed annualized growth rate increasing by 4.4 percent. Coincident Index is composed of nine coincident indicators in July 2010 stood at 114.7 (2002=100), increased 0.2 percent from previous month, because four of nine indicators increased from largest to smallest were production of cement, production of commercial vehicle, real import value (in Baht term) and domestic sale of passenger & commercial cars. There are four indicators decreased were import duties, business taxes & value added taxes & specific business taxes, production of beer and production of motorcycles. The six month smoothed annualized growth rate increasing by 6.1 percent. Remark 1. Medium-run index have occurred before business cycle activity economy at 9 11 months. 2. Short leading index have occurred before business cycle activity economy at 3 5 months. 3. The six-month smoothed annualized growth rate is obtained by dividing the current month s index number by its average for the preceding twelve months and expressing the result as an annual rate. 4. All indicators have to be seasonal adjustment by X-12 and the indicators in term of value were real value indicators, which were adjusted by consumer price index.
2 Business cycle index ( 2002 =100 ) 109.2 115 110 105 100 95 90 120 119.4 85 80 110 100 90 80 70 60 114.7 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 193001 193501 194001 194501 195001 50 Six-month smoothed annualized growth rate 0.3 % 30 20 10 % 15 5 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 4.4 0-10 -20 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007-5 -15 6.1 % 20 10 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 0-10 -20 Remark 1. Shadowed area showed the recessing growth cycle. 2.Six-month smoothed annualized growth rate is obtained by dividing the current month s index number by its average for the preceding twelve months and expressing the result as an annual rate.
July 2010 Percent changed compared previous month of variable and indexes 3 Medium-run leading indicators Percent changed compared previous month Short leading indicators Percent changed compared previous month Coincident indicators Percent changed compared previous month 1. Value of authorized capital of newly -65.3 1. Value of authorized capital of -65.3 1. Production of cement 7.9 registered businesses newly registered businesses 2. Production of commercial vehicle 5.6 2. Industrial Material Price Index, growth rate -5.5 2. Real export value (in Baht term) -13.8 3. Real import value (in Baht term) 3.9 3. Japan Leading Index,sign percentage inverted -1.3 3. Number of foreign tourists 37.7 4. Domestic sale of passenger and 2.2 4. USA Leading Index -1.1 4. Stock exchange of Thailand index 8.6 commercial cars 5. Average interbank overnight lending rates, -0.2 5. Construction areas permitted 2.9 5. Import duties -6.0 sign differential inverted in Bangkok metropolis 6. Business taxes, Value added taxes and -5.3 6. Construction areas permitted in Bangkok 2.9 6. Narrow money 1.3 Specific business taxes metropolis 7. Production of beer -1.1 7. Broad money, growth rate 1.3 8. Production of motorcycles -0.7 9. Retail sale index NA -2.5-0.3 0.2 Growth rate 0.3 Growth rate 4.4 Growth rate 6.1 Remark Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices, 1. All indicators have to be seasonal adjustment. Ministry of commerce. 2. The indicators in term of value were real value indicators, which were adjusted by consumer price index (2002=100). 3. The six-month smoothed annualized growth rate is obtained by dividing the current month s index number by its average for the preceding twelve months and expressing the result as an annual rate.
Thailand business cycle index ( 2002 = 100 ) 4 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Jan. 102.9 105.6 100.6 101 93.3 111.2 Jan. 110.7 114.6 111.1 115.1 110.2 117.1 Jan. 110.8 112.4 110.5 113.9 106.0 111.7 Feb. 103.7 104.7 101.1 101.4 91.9 111.6 Feb. 111.5 113.0 112.4 115.6 110.7 119.3 Feb. 110.4 112.8 111.1 113.6 104.3 112.8 Mar. 102.4 105.2 102.5 102.6 90.1 113.3 Mar. 110.7 113.5 112.2 114.3 108.9 118.1 Mar. 112.3 112.7 110.3 112.7 104.3 113.4 Apr. 101.7 103.8 103.9 102.9 91.6 114.5 Apr. 109.7 112.4 112.9 115.7 110.4 117.0 Apr. 111.8 111.2 110.6 112.9 104.9 112.6 May. 101.3 105.6 105.4 100.9 93.1 114.2 May. 110.7 113.1 113.5 113.6 111.6 116.6 May. 112.2 112.7 111.1 112.4 103.5 111.5 Jun. 102.0 103.7 105.3 100.3 95.9 112.0 Jun. 111.6 112.0 113.1 114.0 112.2 119.7 Jun. 111.8 112.8 111.1 111.7 105.0 114.5 Jul. 100.7 103.3 106.2 100.3 97.7 109.2 Jul. 112.7 111.8 113.7 114.1 113.6 119.4 Jul. 110.9 112.1 111.3 112.8 106.6 114.7 Aug. 100.4 103.1 105.8 101.9 100.6 Aug. 112.7 112.9 114.4 114.4 113.4 Aug. 111.5 112.8 112.1 112.5 106.1 Sep. 101.8 103.1 104.5 101.5 103.7 Sep. 112.9 112.7 113.7 113.0 114.8 Sep. 113.6 111.8 111.6 112.3 109.3 Oct. 102.5 102.3 104.1 99.1 106.4 Oct. 110.8 111.9 114.2 110.7 115.8 Oct. 112.2 110.3 113.0 111.7 109.7 Nov. 103.7 100.6 103.2 96.1 110.1 Nov. 112.8 111.9 115.0 109.7 116.4 Nov. 112.4 111.6 113.8 109.5 112.1 Dec. 103.3 100.9 102.5 93.9 112.7 Dec. 112.3 111.4 114.9 108.9 118.1 Dec. 112.6 112.2 111.6 109.3 112.7 Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices, Ministry of commerce.
Percent changed compared previous month of Thailand business cycle index ( 2002 = 100 ) 5 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Jan. 0.4 2.2-0.3-1.5-0.6-1.3 Jan. -0.3 2.0-0.3 0.2 1.2-0.8 Jan. 0.2-0.2-1.5 2.1-3.0-0.9 Feb. 0.8-0.9 0.5 0.4-1.5 0.4 Feb. 0.7-1.4 1.2 0.4 0.5 1.9 Feb. -0.4 0.4 0.5-0.3-1.6 1.0 Mar. -1.3 0.5 1.4 1.2-2.0 1.5 Mar. -0.7 0.4-0.2-1.1-1.6-1.0 Mar. 1.7-0.1-0.7-0.8 0.0 0.5 Apr. -0.7-1.3 1.4 0.3 1.7 1.1 Apr. -0.9-1.0 0.6 1.2 1.4-0.9 Apr. -0.4-1.3 0.3 0.2 0.6-0.7 May. -0.4 1.7 1.4-1.9 1.6-0.3 May. 0.9 0.6 0.5-1.8 1.1-0.3 May. 0.4 1.3 0.5-0.4-1.3-1.0 Jun. 0.7-1.8-0.1-0.6 3.0-1.9 Jun. 0.8-1.0-0.4 0.4 0.5 2.7 Jun. -0.4 0.1 0.0-0.6 1.4 2.7 Jul. -1.3-0.4 0.9 0.0 1.9-2.5 Jul. 1.0-0.2 0.5 0.1 1.2-0.3 Jul. -0.8-0.6 0.2 1.0 1.5 0.2 Aug. -0.3-0.2-0.4 1.6 3.0 Aug. 0.0 1.0 0.6 0.3-0.2 Aug. 0.5 0.6 0.7-0.3-0.5 Sep. 1.4 0.0-1.2-0.4 3.1 Sep. 0.2-0.2-0.6-1.2 1.2 Sep. 1.9-0.9-0.4-0.2 3.0 Oct. 0.7-0.8-0.4-2.4 2.6 Oct. -1.9-0.7 0.4-2.0 0.9 Oct. -1.2-1.3 1.3-0.5 0.4 Nov. 1.2-1.7-0.9-3.0 3.5 Nov. 1.8 0.0 0.7-0.9 0.5 Nov. 0.2 1.2 0.7-2.0 2.2 Dec. -0.4 0.3-0.7-2.3 2.4 Dec. -0.4-0.4-0.1-0.7 1.5 Dec. 0.2 0.5-1.9-0.2 0.5 Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices, Ministry of commerce.
Six-month smoothed annualized growth rate of Thailand business cycle index 6 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Jan. -3.9 6.2-5.1-4.9-12.3 24.1 Jan. 0.8 5.0-2.4 2.7-4.9 6.8 Jan. 3.7 0.9-2.6 4.0-9.8 8.2 Feb. -1.9 4.1-3.5-4.2-13.7 21.5 Feb. 2.1 1.8 0.2 3.0-3.5 9.5 Feb. 2.4 1.3-1.4 3.0-11.5 9.3 Mar. -3.6 4.9-0.5-2.2-15.5 21.3 Mar. 0.4 2.4-0.1 0.4-5.7 6.2 Mar. 5.3 0.8-2.5 1.2-10.4 9.0 Apr. -4.0 1.9 2.4-1.6-11.2 19.4 Apr. -1.5 0.2 1.2 2.4-2.6 3.1 Apr. 3.7-1.7-1.7 1.2-8.4 6.2 May. -3.9 4.9 5.2-5.0-6.8 14.9 May. 0.1 1.0 2.2-1.3 0.1 1.6 May. 3.9 0.8-0.8 0.0-9.6 3.2 Jun. -1.7 0.8 5.0-5.4-0.4 7.6 Jun. 1.5-1.1 1.4-0.7 1.4 5.9 Jun. 2.5 0.9-0.6-1.3-6.0 7.2 Jul. -3.6-0.2 6.4-4.7 3.8 0.3 Jul. 3.1-1.5 2.3-0.7 4.0 4.4 Jul. 0.5-0.4 0.0 0.4-2.4 6.1 Aug. -3.6-0.9 5.2-1.0 10.1 Aug. 2.9 0.4 3.2-0.2 3.7 Aug. 1.2 0.6 1.5-0.3-2.4 Sep. -0.7-1.3 2.4-1.1 16.7 Sep. 2.8 0.0 1.8-2.5 6.2 Sep. 4.2-1.2 0.7-0.7 4.1 Oct. 0.8-2.9 1.5-5.0 21.9 Oct. -1.0-1.2 2.5-6.0 7.7 Oct. 1.3-3.4 3.1-1.7 5.2 Nov. 3.1-5.9-0.4-9.5 28.3 Nov. 2.4-1.4 3.5-7.2 7.9 Nov. 1.3-1.0 4.1-5.1 9.8 Dec. 2.1-4.9-2.0-12.4 31.0 Dec. 1.4-2.1 2.9-7.7 9.8 Dec. 1.5 0.1 0.1-4.9 10.5 Remark : The six-month smoothed annualized growth rate is obtained by dividing the current month s index number Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices, Ministry of commerce.