HOUSING AND LABOR MARKET TRENDS: NEVADA June 2013 Community Development Research Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
National Trends
Composition of distressed sales by geography 45% Proportion of Distressed Property Transactions April 2013 3 Month Moving Average 40% 35% 8% Percent of Total Transactions 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 22% 12% 7% 19% 10% 11% 15% 16% 19% 9% 8% 7% 10% 15% 6% 12% 5% 13% 8% 15% 13% 8% 3% 7% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% Short Sale Move-In Ready REO Damaged REO Source: Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Monthly Survey of Real Estate Market Conditions April 2013
Neighborhood stabilization: concerns over investor purchases of distressed properties Percent of Property Type 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 63% 19% 18% Damaged REO Who Is Buying Properties? April 2013 3 Month Moving Average Current Homeowner First-Time Homebuyer Investor 18% 48% 35% 35% 33% 29% Move-In Ready REO Short Sale 13% 37% 50% Non-Distressed Source: Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Monthly Survey of Real Estate Market Conditions April 2013
Financing for home purchases Financing for Homebuyers April 2013 3 Month Moving Average 100% Percent of Buyer-Side Transactions 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 29% 15% 21% 6% 7% 2% 5% 14% 22% 18% 47% 76% 26% 11% Current Homeowners First-Time Homebuyers Investors All Other Financing VA Fannie/Freddie FHA Cash Source: Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Monthly Survey of Real Estate Market Conditions April 2013
Nevada Trends
Unemployment rate in Nevada coming down, but still higher than U.S. 16 12 Nevada Unemployment Rate 8 United States 4 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Recession Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Nevada house prices trending up 250 FHFA House Price Index (formerly OFHEO) (2000 = 100, quarterly) FHFA House Price Index 2000=100 210 170 United States Nevada 130 90 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (formerly OFHEO)
Las Vegas and Reno prices trending up 240 FHFA House Price Index (formerly OFHEO) (2000 = 100, quarterly) 220 FHFA House Price Index 2000=100 200 180 160 140 Carson City 120 100 80 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (formerly OFHEO) Las Vegas Reno
Mortgage delinquencies and number of loans in foreclosure remain stable 120,000 Number of Mortgages 80,000 40,000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Loans in Foreclosure All Mortgages Past Due Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Delinquency Survey
Nevada s consumer debt delinquency rate is falling, but still well above national average 20% Consumer Debt Delinquency Rate 15% Nevada 10% U.S. 5% 0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Note: Delinquency status of 90+ days past due or worse. Excludes first mortgage. Source: FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel
Rents continue to rise as vacancies fall in Las Vegas $880 Asking Rent and Vacancy Rate in Las Vegas Quarterly Asking Rent Vacancy Rate 18% $840 12% Asking Rent $800 6% Vacancy Rate $760 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 0% Source: Reis, Inc. Asking rent is calculated by first determining the average rent for each unit size, and then calculating a weighted average based on the number of units in each size category.
Reno rents increase as vacancy rate continues to decline $875 Asking Rent and Vacancy Rate in Reno Quarterly Asking Rent Vacancy Rate 12% 8% Asking Rent $850 4% Vacancy Rate $825 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 0% Source: Reis, Inc. Asking rent is calculated by first determining the average rent for each unit size, and then calculating a weighted average based on the number of units in each size category.
Maps
Nevada Data Maps Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures April 2013 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations
Nevada Data Maps Areas at Risk of Additional Foreclosures April 2013 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations
Las Vegas Data Maps Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures April 2013 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations
Las Vegas Data Maps Areas at Risk of Additional Foreclosures April 2013 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations
Reno Data Maps Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures April 2013 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations
Reno Data Maps Areas at Risk of Additional Foreclosures April 2013 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations
Conclusions
For More Information: FRBSF Community Development Website Links to other resources and research on foreclosure trends and mitigation strategies All publications, presentations available on our website Conference materials also posted shortly after events http://www.frbsf.org/community/