Nevada Labor Market Briefing: March 2013 Department of Employment, Training & Rehabilitation Frank R. Woodbeck, Director Bill Anderson, Chief Economist Leanndra Copeland, Supervising Economist Prepared by the Research and Analysis Bureau for Presentation to the Southern Nevada Workforce Investment Board (April 2013)
National Perspective
U.S. Job Growth (month-over-month; SA) 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M 2011 2012 2013 8.7 million jobs lost 12/07-12/09. Since then, 5.8 million jobs (about 67% of those lost) have been added. Job growth totaled just 88K in March.
Nevada Economic Indicators
Key Nevada Economic Indicators January taxable sales up 9.3% from a year ago, the 31 st straight gain. Gaming win up 15.1% percent in February. (+0.6% YTD) Las Vegas visitor volume down 1.3% in February. (-1% YTD) Gold prices averaged $1,593/oz. in March, off by $81 from a year ago and $36 from the previous month. Nevada exports, at $730M in February, up 32% from a year ago. (23% YTD) Personal income growth remains positive. The number of new business entity formations in Nevada fell 10.3% from a year ago in March. The number of Nevadans seeking assistance through the State s TANF Program ticked down on a year-over-year basis in March (down 0.8%). The growth in SNAP ( food stamps ) enrollment has eased considerably of late, and was up just 0.5% in February.
Nevada Personal Income Growth (yearover-year) 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 Personal income gains have rebounded off of recessionary lows. Like other indicators, income trends suggest that the economy bottomed out over the 2009-2010 period. For all of 2012, personal income is up 2.4% from a year ago. Growth, however, remains below the national average.
Residential Construction and Real Estate Activity Statewide residential building permits start off the year 41% higher than the first two months of 2012. Nevada housing starts are up 43% from a year ago through February. Nevada home prices on the rise second-strongest gain in nation in last year s fourth quarter. Resale prices in Southern Nevada have increased relative to a year ago in each of the past 11 months, with a gain of 31% in February. New home prices have finally begun to improve up five straight months and 21% in February. Resale activity in Southern Nevada is trending down as inventories have been constrained. February brought with it the seventh consecutive year-over-year decline. Southern Nevada new home closings have risen sharply of late, with January/February results about double yearago readings. Permit activity has followed a similar pattern, suggesting continued improvement.
FHFA Housing Price Index: NV vs. the U.S. (SA; 2003:IQ = 100) 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Nevada U.S. Nevada housing prices nearly doubled over the course of the boom prior to declining sharply as the recession unfolded. A rebound, however, is evident. In fact, NV s price gains in last year s fourth quarter, measured on a year-over-year basis, came in at 20%, trailing only AZ s 22%.
Nevada Labor Market Conditions
NV vs. the U.S. Unemployment Rate (SA) 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 NV U.S. Nevada s unemployment rate stands at 9.7% in March, up from 9.6% in February. This is the first month-over-month uptick since June 2011. Off from a record high of 14% recorded in October 2010. The State s jobless rate stands 2.1 points higher than the nation s 7.6%. At the height of the downturn, the State s jobless rate was 4.5+ points higher than the nation s.
51 50 48 47 46 5 4 3 2 1 Unemployment Rate Rankings (SA) North Dakota Nebraska Vermont South Dakota Iowa/Utah/Wyoming Rhode Island North Carolina California/Mississippi Illinois Nevada 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% In March, Nevada s 9.7% jobless rate was the highest in the nation. Three other States in the 9.4%-9.5% range. North Dakota s 3.3% jobless rate was the lowest.
States Grouped by March Decline in the Unemployment Rate (SA; year-over-year) 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 NV -1.9 pct. pts. -1.8 to -1.6-1.5 to -1.2-1.1 to -0.8-0.7 to -0.5-0.4 to -0.1 0 to 0.3 0.4+ Nevada led the nation with a 1.9 percentage point decline in the unemployment rate relative to a year ago in March. Just eight other states had declines in excess of one percentage point. Eleven states saw their jobless rate hold steady or increase.
Unemployment Duration (12-month moving average) 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 26 Weeks or Less 27+ Weeks In the 12 months ending in March, 67K unemployed Nevadans had been without a job for at least 27 weeks. 82K had been unemployed for a shorter period of time. Long-term unemployment peaked at a average of about 93K in the 12 months ending in October 2011. Current info translates into a nearly 30% decline. Short-term unemployment is also on the decline, as it peaked at 108K during the 12 months ending in June 2010.
Alternative Measures of Labor Underutilization (2012 annual average) Measure Underutilization Concept Level Official Rate jobless persons available to take a job who have actively sought work in the past four weeks 11.1% U-1 jobless 15 weeks or longer 6.4% U-2 job losers and persons losing a temporary job 6.3% U-3 similar to official rate 11.0% U-4 U-3 plus discouraged workers 11.9% U-5 U-4 plus others marginally attached to the labor force 13.3% U-6 U-5 plus those employed part-time for economic reasons 20.3% U-3 similar in scope to the official rate. U-4 adds discouraged workers to U-3. Discouraged workers are those people who would like to work, but have stopped looking for work because they believe there are no jobs to be filled. This adds less than one percentage point to the U-3 rate. Marginally attached workers, the addition to U-5, have not searched for work for reasons other than belief that there are no jobs to fill. Finally, U-6 adds part-time workers (working less than 35 hours per week) who would rather be working full-time, but cannot due to economic reasons including having their hours cut or being unable to find full-time work.
Historical Metro Area Unemployment Rates (NSA) 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 NV Las Vegas Reno Carson City Unemployment conditions in the State s three population centers tend to behave in a similar fashion over time as jobless rates currently range from 9.8% to 10.6%.
Current Metro Area Unemployment Rates (NSA) Las Vegas 9.8% Nevada 9.8% Reno 10.0% Carson City 10.6% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% Carson City has the highest jobless rate among the State s three metro areas, at 10.6%. Las Vegas 9.8% is the lowest. Rates in all three regions are down noticeably from year-ago readings (-1.9 points in Las Vegas, -1.8 points in Reno, -1.6 points in Carson City.)
County Unemployment Rates (YTD, NSA) Esmeralda Lander Humboldt Elko Eureka White Pine Churchill Clark Nevada Washoe Pershing Carson City Storey Douglas Nye Lincoln Mineral Lyon 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% The highest unemployment rates are in Lyon and Mineral Counties, with Esmeralda, Lander, and Humboldt having the lowest.
Nonfarm Jobs in Nevada (SA) 1,400,000 1,350,000 1,300,000 1,250,000 1,200,000 1,150,000 1,100,000 1,050,000 1,000,000 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 In totaling 1.16 million, job readings are up by 19,200 relative to a year ago, but down by 2,900 over-the-month. Between 2007 and 2010, job losses totaled more than 175,000.
jobs percent change Job Growth (SA; year-over-year) 30,000 3.0% 25,000 2.5% 20,000 2.0% 15,000 1.5% 10,000 1.0% 5,000 0.5% 0 A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M 2011 2012 2013 0.0% Jobs Pct. Change Nevada job readings are up 1.7% from a year ago. Growth has been trending up over time, but has eased a bit in the past three months. This increase marks the 27 th straight month in which year-over-year gains have been recorded. In mid-2009, job losses exceeded ten percent on a year-over-year basis.
Job Growth: NV vs. the U.S. (year-over-year; NSA) 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 YTD NV U.S. After growing at a much faster pace than the U.S. prior to the recession, Nevada job losses were more pronounced than in the nation during the downturn. Only within the past several months has job growth in the State, once again, exceeded national norms. Through March, jobs are up 2.3% relative to the same period in 2012 in Nevada, compared to a 1.6% increase in the U.S. as a whole.
Number of States with a Lower Private Sector Job Growth Rate than Nevada 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 YTD In the years preceding the recession, Nevada led the nation in employment growth (based upon QCEW information). Nevada was impacted by the recession more than any other state in terms of employment growth. In 2011 and the first three quarters of 2012, Nevada s employment growth rate is rising again. Private sector jobs grew 1.8% in the first nine months of last year, higher than that for 21 other states. Looking solely at September of last year, Nevada outperformed 33 other states in terms of y-o-y growth.
Private Sector Gross Job Gains vs. Gross Job Losses (SA) 120,000 100,000 80,000 Gross Job Gains 60,000 Gross Job Losses 40,000 20,000 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Considerable churn beneath the surface of the labor market. 9,500 net new jobs in 2012:IIQ. 63,800 gross gains at opening/expanding establishments; 54,400 gross losses at closing/contracting establishments. Net positive growth for seven consecutive quarters.
Job Growth by Industry (YTD; year-over-year; NSA) Leisure & Hospitality Trade, Transportation, & Utilities Construction Education & Health Services Financial Activities Government Mining & Logging Manufacturing Other Services Professional & Business Services -4,000-2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 Leisure/hospitality leads the way with about 9K more jobs in the first quarter of 2013 vs. a year ago. TTU has added 6K jobs over the same period, while construction is up by 3,300. PBS job levels declined by 2,800 positions so far in 2013.
Historical Metro Area Job Growth (SA; yearover-year) 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M 2011 2012 2013 NV Las Vegas Reno Carson City Job growth in the Las Vegas metro area has been positive in every month since mid-2011. Reno has registered positive job growth in each of the past 13 months. Carson City showed signs of improvement near year-end, but is off to a weak start so far in 2013, although March job estimates did match last year s.
Metro Area Job Growth (year-over-year; yearto-date; NSA) Nevada Las Vegas Reno Carson City -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 Las Vegas added 17K jobs relative to a year ago during the first quarter of 2013. In Reno, job levels are up 2,700, while Carson City is just off slightly from year-ago readings.
Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 J F M A M J J A S O N D 2012 2013 Initial claims totaled 15,400 in March. This compares to 16,400 a year ago. Declines have been recorded in 37 of the past 40 months. Claims activity during the recession peaked in excess of 36,000.
Total Unemployment Insurance Claims vs. the Total Number of Unemployed 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Regular State/Federal Extensions Total Unemployment There were 57,500 Nevadans submitting UI claims in March, down by 2,500 from the prior month. Compared to a year ago, the number of claimants was down 23,500. 35,400 were regular UI claims; 22,100 fell under a variety of extension programs. Of the 134,600 Nevadans estimated to be unemployed in March, 43% were receiving benefits. In the first half of 2008, 42% of those counted as unemployed received benefits. At its peak, the coverage ratio exceeded 70%.
Looking Forward
Nevada s Employment Growth Forecast (year-over-year) 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% -12% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Job losses peaked at 115,000 (-9.2%) in 2009; losses eased to a -2.7% clip in 2010. 2011 saw a return to positive growth (+7,000) with an additional 17,000 jobs in 2012. We expect an additional 23,000 jobs in 2013 (+2.1%), 30,000 in 2014, and 33,000 in 2015.
The 50K Jobs Goal Progress to Date
Employment Growth Since 2010 Total (Private+Public) Private Sector 2010 Baseline 1,117,300 963,600 Calculation of 2011 Growth 2011 1,124,600 974,300 Growth from 2010 7,300 10,700 Calculation of 2012 Growth 2012 1,142,700 993,700 Growth from 2011 18,100 19,400 Calculation of 2013 Year-to-Date Growth 2012 Year-to-Date (through March) 1,123,400 973,700 2013 Year-to-Date (through March) 1,148,900 997,000 Year-to-Date Growth from 2012 25,500 23,300 Total Growth Since 2010 (2011 Growth Plus 2012 Growth Plus 2013 YTD Growth) 50,900 53,400 31,100 private sector jobs added between 2010 and 2012. Through the first quarter of this year, another 23,300 jobs have been added compared to the same period a year ago. If current trends hold steady, we are on pace to add more than 53K jobs compared to 2010, by the time 2013 draws to a close.
For Additional Information, Please Contact: Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation Research and Analysis Bureau Bill Anderson Chief Economist wdanderson@nvdetr.org Leanndra Copeland Supervising Economist L-copeland@nvdetr.org (775) 684-0450 http://www.nevadaworkforce.com follow us on Twitter @nvlabormarket